Trans-Atlantic loads off, Continental says
www.chron.com March 4, 2003, 11:29PM By BILL HENSEL JR.
Continental Airlines is projecting its trans-Atlantic passenger traffic will fall by 15 percentage points this month, largely because of worries about a possible war with Iraq.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Continental also said that demand is weak throughout its system and it expects a poor showing in April.
"Trans-Atlantic bookings are looking weak in March, mainly due to concerns about a conflict with Iraq as well as the shift of Easter," Diane Dayhoff, Continental staff vice president for finance, wrote in a letter to the SEC on Tuesday. "We anticipate that our March trans-Atlantic load factor will be down about 15 points year over year."
A load factor is a calculation widely used by airlines to determine how full planes are.
April bookings "are currently showing some softness as well," Dayhoff wrote.
The figures included in the Houston-based carrier's regulatory filing are the first declarative projections from an airline about how it expects war with Iraq to impact passenger travel.
Continental, like most other major airlines, has been losing millions of dollars because of a sluggish economy, the aftermath of Sept. 11 and changes in business travel trends.
In addition to the impact of war jitters, the Easter holiday, which fell in March last year, has shifted to April. That will also cut into the March bottom line.
February's storms hurt Continental's operations in the Northeast and Midwest, according to Dayhoff. She said the company estimated those storms cost the company $10 million to $15 million before taxes.
Continental said in a report earlier this week that its load factor for February was 68.9 percent, 3.2 points below the load factor for February 2002.
Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Jim Higgins expressed disappointment with Continental's load factor for February. Credit Suisse had estimated a 2 percent increase in capacity for the airline.
The ongoing impact of the potential for war with Iraq on airline traffic coupled with the shift of the Easter holiday from March into April "suggests softer than usual trends," Higgins said in a report released Tuesday.
"We therefore expect downward revisons" to first-quarter earnings estimates, Higgins added.
Shares of Continental were down 22 cents Tuesday, winding up at $5.14 at the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Geopolitical events have led to higher fuel prices, Higgins noted, including jet fuel. The price of crude oil has risen 15 percent since the first of the year and is about 60 percent above last year, while jet fuel is up 75 percent, he said.
"The recent strength in crude prices will only exacerbate the airline's revenue softness," Higgins said.
The American Petroleum Institute's John Felmy attributed the crude oil price increase to a "perfect storm" situation of Venezuela shutting down production, very cold weather in the United States and nervousness over Iraq.
Felmy, the petroleum institute's chief economist, said while he could not speculate about what will happen with prices, he noted that winter will end soon and crude production already has begun to rebound in Venezuela.
"It is going to be how all of those factors come together that will affect crude prices, and that will in turn affect jet fuel prices," he said.