Chavez would win the elections, no matter how many votes the opposition would get
www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Oscar Heck
VHeadline.com commentarist Oscar Heck writes: I have been getting some flack from some irate opposition people recently ... again ... calling me "ignorant and uneducated." Why? Because they think I have some figures mixed up.
I will explain: According to the opposition, the recent Firmazo (Signing) of February 2, 2003, accumulated 4.4 million signatures in several petitions including one asking Chavez to resign.
According to recent opposition sponsored press announcements, TV ads and newspaper editorials, 70-80% of the Venezuelan population want Chavez to resign.
Where do they get these figures?
The only explanation I have seen is the following:
4.4 million signatures of a possible 6 million, represents 73%.
Why 6 million? Because, they base themselves on the voter turnout of 1998, when Chavez won the elections with approximately 56% of the votes (3 million+ votes).
The abstention rate was approximately 50% at the time.
Now, what perplexes me? The firmazo was intensely advertised (and pounded into people's heads) for weeks previous to February 2, 2003. There was a monumental effort by the opposition to have as many people as possible show up to sign. So, if the turnout for the firmazo was say 80%, which I believe is a little low (i.e., abstention of 20%), then this means that the maximum number of anti-Chavez signatures could have been 5.5 million signatures.
Now, if elections were held ... and the abstention rate is 20% ... this means that 9.6 million people would vote and Chavez would get 4.1 million votes (43% of all votes). Together, all other opposition parties would have a total of 5.5 million votes, that is 57% of all votes. (It seems to me that 57% anti-Chavez votes are a far cry from 70-80%.)
Based on the above figures, for Chavez to lose the elections, one opposition party would have to have at least 4.1 million votes +1, that is 4.1 of 5.5 million anti-Chavez votes, or 75% of these votes.
I suppose, theoretically, this could happen ... but I doubt it, especially since there are 18 political parties represented in the National Assembly, a good portion of them being anti-Chavez.
Another point is that if the turnout for the 'firmazo' was higher that 80 % ... say 90% (which I believe is closer to reality - especially after all the advertising) ... then Chavez would win the elections, no matter how many votes the opposition would get -- the maximum number of combined anti-Chavez votes would be 4.9 million of a total of 10.8 million, or 45%.
The flack I have been receiving is precisely concerning the above discussions.
Does the opposition really believe that if there were elections, there would be 80% anti-Chavez voter turnout and say 50% pro-Chavez voter turnout?
Or that if an election were held, the voter turnout would still remain at 50% ... as it was in 1998? I don't think so! I believe that voter turnout will be the highest in Venezuelan history. My prediction is that the anti-Chavez and pro-Chavez voter turnout will be about 80%.
The fact that the opposition is claiming that 70-80% of the Venezuelan population wants Chavez out, is based on a false premise that the turnout for the 'firmazo' was 50%!
I don't think so ... considering the amount of advertising and incitement that went on, my estimate is that the turnout for the 'firmazo' was closer to 90%.
Furthermore, if elections were called, Chavez would ask all his supporters to go to the ballot box ... just as the opposition would.
Now, supposing that the opposition's premise (50% turnout) is correct ... then Chavez would win 1.6 million votes. For Chavez to lose, one anti-Chavez political party would have to win at least 1.6 million votes ... or 26% of the anti-Chavez votes.
According to the Venezuelan National Assembly site the anti-Chavez political party that holds the largest number of seats is Accion Democratica (AD) with 15% of the seats. (Remember that there are a total of 18 political parties represented at the National Assembly). This would mean that Accion Democratica ... one of the conventional Venezuelan political parties ... would have to increase their votes by approximately 75%!
Considering that the Accion Democratica is still, in the eyes of many Venezuelans, the party that is associated with Carlos Andres Perez and massive proven corruption, it appears to me that an increase of 75% is asking a lot. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.
Now, I can understand that many opposition people would love their premise to be correct. If it is correct, I must congratulate them for seeing more deeply into the situation than I have been able to do. However, I find it difficult to believe, especially since 12 weeks of travel across approximately half of Venezuela's territory has not demonstrated to me that the premise is valid.
Another factor: The opposition claims that many people who voted for Chavez in 1998 signed at the 'firmazo.' Numbers-wise this bit of information only has bearing on the matter if their premise is correct.
Another interesting fact: The opposition has been inviting all Venezuelans to take to the streets for the last 3 Sundays ... a religious march for "Venezuela", "for peace", "for democracy". This past weekend they added "against political persecution."
Oscar Heck oscarheck111@hotmail.com