Stakes rising as Iraq showdown plays out

cgi.citizen-times.com By Asheville Citizen-Times March 1, 2003 6:04 p.m.

On paper, the plan looks good. Overthrow Saddam Hussein and allow democracy to bloom in Iraq and spread to the Muslim world.

If it works, the result will mean less oppression, more freedom and a much safer world. Thus, a much safer America. The size of that "if'' is gargantuan.

It's hard to overstate the number of eggs currently in the Iraq basket. The economy hinges on Iraq. The 2004 elections hinge on Iraq. The future of the United Nations and NATO are being shaped by Iraq.

To put the situation in terms of a poker game, President Bush has taken a solid but not spectacular hand - that Saddam Hussein is a brutal and dangerous leader who should be ousted - and is betting on it like it's a royal flush. The result is seriously frayed relations with the U.N. and NATO and a series of world hot spots from Venezuela to North Korea that aren't receiving the attention they deserve because of the single-minded focus on Saddam. Saddam was in a box.

We've crawled in with him.

The box is getting more uncomfortable by the day, as estimates of the cost of the war (now around $100 billion, not including billions to Turkey and the like) and the size of a U.S. occupation force (hundreds of thousands of troops) and the length of the mission (no end in sight) grow.

And this is the optimistic view.

On paper, Bush's vision of the outcome of the "battle for the future of the Muslim world'' foresees a region that is fundamentally changed to the favor of the U.S. The reality is far less clear-cut. A short comment from Youssef Ibrahim of the Council on Foreign Relations to the Washington Post frames that reality well: "I think Arabs almost without exception would welcome more democracy and more freedom of expression and to be liberated from the police states they all - in one form or another - live under. It does not follow that they would trust America to do this for them. The view over there is totally different from the view expressed here."

Indeed, the views expressed on these shores aren't exactly in lockstep. And that's not surprising, given the administration's continual raising of the stakes.

With the latest raise, we have rather casually gone from fighting terrorists to taking out Saddam with a pre-emptive strike and now to changing the face of the entire Middle East.

The president outlined this vision in a speech Wednesday at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. It was probably the most inviting comfort zone possible for such a speech. But to his credit, unlike his father, the president has a vision for what happens after the war. If the first President Bush had had such a vision, we wouldn't be where we are now. But this plan goes beyond think tanks and far beyond comfort zones. It is a grand and wonderful vision. And it's worth remembering that the vision of a freer world should always be the vision of an American president and the American people.

Beyond vision is the matter of strategy, of how to get from Point A to Point B and on down the road. The president is looking at Point Z. A lot of cards are going to have to fall in our favor.

Even if things go perfectly, however, it sets a very hard road for this nation. Are we ready to see our sons and daughters deployed for years on end in foreign lands? Are we ready to pay the financial price, which almost certainly will be steeper than predicted? Are we ready to reinstate the draft to provide the manpower needed to fuel such a venture, if needed? Is this vision worth creating huge rifts with allies across the globe?

There is something of a sense that we are a nation at a precipice.

Are we sleepwalking right over that precipice?

Taking that step may be a wise move. It may not be. There's a lot that can go right with this grand vision. There's a lot - probably more - that can go wrong.

We're about to find out.

The last cards are being played.