Taiwan No. 8 'volcano' on globe: Forbes

www.chinapost.com.tw 2003/3/1 TAIEPI, Taiwan, The China Post staff

Although worldwide attention is presently focused on a possible U.S.-led war in Iraq, Taiwan is listed as one of the "smoldering volcanoes" on the globe that could pose problems in the future, according to the Forbes magazine.

In a special report in its March 17 issue, the American magazine comes up with a list of 15 trouble spots which could become "the next Iraq."

Taiwan was listed eighth place in terms of potential conflict. The report says Taiwan's perennial conflicts with mainland China could lead to nuclear arms and U.S. involvement.

But the article does not specify whether the possible dangers come from nuclear threats from the mainland or whether Taiwan may develop its own nuclear weapons.

Japan was sixth place on the list, followed by South Korea. Waning U.S. influence in the event of a prolonged war against Iraq could make Japan feel increasing pressure to develop its own nuclear arsenal to defend against possible attack from North Korea.

Due to reduced confidence in the U.S., South Korea could also take the nuclear option to cope with threats from Pyongyang, according to the Forbes analysis.

The "smoldering volcanoes" put ahead of these three countries are: 1) Belarus and Ukraine, the two unstable states bordering new members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; 2) the Balkans (Bosnia and Kosovo); 3) Chechnya and the Caucasus; 4) Pakistan (threats from Islamic fundamentalism, skirmishes with India, and al-Qaida organization); and Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (threats from Islamic fundamentalists, al-Qaida, ethnic and religious bloodshed).

Nations and regions listed after Taiwan include 9) Iran, 10) Libya, 11) Central Asia, 12) Brazil, 13) Colombia, 14) Mexico, and 15) Venezuela, the Forbes analysis said.