Resistance to war grows across region

news.ft.com By John Authers, Raymond Colitt and Richard Lapper Published: February 20 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: February 20 2003 4:00

US President George W. Bush seems to be succeeding in forging Latin American unity of an unwelcome kind. Opposition to possible US and British military action against Iraq is growing across the region.

"There is not a lot of sympathy or support [for the US]," says Michael Shifter, director of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue policy forum. "Most Latin American governments are totally baffled by it. All the Latin Americans I know say 'are you guys really going to do this?'."

Of most concern to Washington is that the two Latin countries, Mexico and Chile, which are among 10 elected members of the United Nations Security Council are showing little enthusiasm for US and British efforts to win support for speedy military action against Iraq.

Mexico's President Vicente Fox has been actively pushing an independent position. An outspoken critic of war, he welcomed the peace protests that took place in a number of international capitals last weekend. "It is extraordinary that people have demonstrated like this. It is the way to stop the war," he said.

Brazil, which will replace Mexico on the Security Council next year, has also been engaged in diplomacy designed to give more time to the UN weapons inspections. It has aligned itself with proposals made by Germany, France and Russia that sought to increase time and resources for inspectors in Iraq.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been seeking to stiffen the resolve of his Latin American counterparts. Brazil's foreign minister, Celso Amorim, has been in Moscow this week to underscore Brazil's support for diplomatic efforts to avoid war.

Several factors underpin the defiant mood. First, public opinion polls show that Latin Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to war.

According to recent research conducted by Latinobarómetro, a Santiago-based polling firm, 85 per cent of Chileans are opposed to war.

Similar polls by the same organisation showed that on average 57 per cent of Latin Americans opposed the invasion of Afghanistan, with that number rising to 80 per cent in Argentina.

Marta Lagos, the director of Latinobarómetro, notes a broader growth in anti-US sentiment across the region.

"You will find in most countries that many people have reasons to be anti-American," she says. "People like American culture and lifestyle but the US is perceived as not being helpful towards the region."

There are worries that a war, especially if it proves to be drawn out, will worsen financial and economic pressures and delay recovery. If war adds to, rather than reduces, uncertainty in the financial and commodity markets, investors could become even less enthusiastic than they are at present. The resulting rise in "risk aversion" could lead to weakness in currencies and may force governments to increase interest rates.

In the past few weeks, fears of war have set back the recovery in Brazil's financial markets.

"Brazil is concerned with the economic aspects of a possible war," says Mr Amorim. "We have to explore all solutions for Iraq. Brazil cannot watch passively, waiting to see what will happen. The consequences of war for emerging markets would be immediate."

Several countries, including Chile and the smaller Caribbean and Central American nations, would also be particularly vulnerable to the increase in oil prices that might result from damage to Iraqi fields. Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela are exporters, while Brazil produces about 80 per cent of its domestic oil requirements.

But all of this has to be offset against economic realities and, in particular, the enormous leverage that Washington has over many Latin American economies. The US is an important trading partner and a dominant influence in the International Monetary Fund and other multilaterals, on whose support much of the region depends.

Diplomats say efforts to develop a joint position through the Rio Group, which links 18 Latin American countries, have already stumbled against the extreme economic dependency of smaller Central American countries. Ultimately, economics could force some of the bigger players into the US camp.

Both Latin American Security Council members have close US ties. Chile recently agreed a free trade deal with the US that has still to be ratified by the US Congress. Mexico channels 90 per cent of its exports to the US and is keen to preserve intact its relationship with its neighbour and the benefits it has enjoyed through the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

Significantly, although Mexico and Chile favour more time for diplomatic actions, they are also reluctant to side openly with France and Germany and want to avoid confrontation with the US.

In Mexico City, some critics of the government see efforts to forge an independent position as flying in the face of political realities. Luis Rubio, a Mexico City-based political analyst, says that the government must recognise these strategic realities. "Obviously we could vote against but sooner or later the consequences would be brutal," he says. Additional reporting by John Authers in Mexico City and Raymond Colitt in Sa{~} o Paulo.