Another attempted at a failed coup? Is this a possibility?

www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, February 20, 2003 By: Oscar Heck

VHeadline.com commentarist Oscar Heck writes: Looking back to the well planned, yet failed attempt at getting Chavez out of office by using "el paro" (the stoppage) as a major "ousting" tool, one can (perhaps) gather the following information:

• Typically, in Venezuela, it is very difficult to begin any legal proceedings between the beginning of December and about the third to fourth weeks in January. Most judges and lawyers are on lengthy vacations, often out of country. (If the Chavez government wanted to attempt to stop the stoppage legally, they would have to wait until at least the third week in January. This in fact happened.)

• Typically, in Venezuela, as in many countries, December is the "spending month," the traveling month and the month in which most employees get their bonuses. (Make certain that the shelves are empty and that there is no gasoline so that people have the worst Christmas vacation ever experienced...and convince the people that it is the fault of Chavez. Psychological warfare?...oh, and bombard them with anti-Chavez propaganda since they are not going anywhere during their vacation and are probably watching TV most of the time).

• If the Chavez government attempts at re-stabilizing the country by using the severe methods that most governments would use in times of crisis, then call Chavez a "dictator" and "communist" ... or as was insinuated on television today ... "Hitler." (This is now happening).

Here is my analysis of recent events.  Some readers may say that I am paranoid ... as they also accuse Chavez of being.  However, looking at past world history, what I am about to propose as a theory, is not so far-fetched.

Here is the scenario ... Chavez had planned to travel to Malaysia on Saturday, February 22 ... on what apparently was to have been a very important trip. There has been a shroud of secrecy recently as to why he has cancelled the trip.

"Mystery surrounds Chavez' decision NOT to travel to Malaysia"

The results of the "El Firmazo" (the "signing") * were supposed to be presented a few days after the "Firmazo" itself took place on February 2, 2003. However, the presentation of the results was postponed until Wednesday, February 19, 2003 at 7:00 p.m. local Venezuela time, and was transmitted by Globovision television ... one of the privately-owned television stations most associated with anti-Chavez propaganda.

• The "signing" was a signing of petitions geared at forcing Chavez to resign and call early elections, and was organized by the coordinated efforts of:

• Coordinadora Democratica (Democratic Coordinator), one of the principal anti-Chavez movements.

• The CTV, one of the major Venezuelan union groups.

-Fedecamaras, one of the major Venezuelan business associations.

-Gente de Petroleo (Petroleum People), one of PDVSA's union movements.

• Perhaps the Cisneros and the Mendozas, the two multi-billionaire Venezuelan  families who basically have the monopolies of major Venezuelan markets?

Note: Most of the above have used mostly illegitimate and immoral methods.

Today, Thursday, February 20, 2003 (two days before Chavez was to leave for Malaysia), the major papers are front-lining the claimed success of "El Firmazo."

Supposing, that the opposition's plan (possibly thwarted now due to last night's arrest of Fedecamaras president Carlos Fernandez) was to attempt another "coup" while Chavez was abroad ... the timing would again have been perfect. Today, Thursday and tomorrow, Friday would have given the media and all other coup plotters the necessary two days to "justify" a take over of Venezuela on Saturday, February 22.  The numbers of "El Firmazo," the fact that the country is in a mess (created by the opposition themselves) and the fact that Chavez is "as usual" traveling abroad when the country is in such a mess!

This morning on Globovision, they were calling Chavez a "dictator" because Carlos Fernandez was arrested ... they were saying that Chavez is now a "kidnapper." Why is this? If someone has committed a serious crime such as treason, does the police come to one's home and politely ask " Do you want to come with us to jail?" I do not think so, especially not in the USA, which many of the opposition seem to glorify...  see: www.petitiononline.com

Now, about the "El Firmazo" results, based on figures presented by the opposition, which may not be very reliable, however, in my opinion, close to reality:

1)  36.89% of the voting population want amendments to the Constitution and abolition of 47 of 49 laws ("Ley Habilitante") which include Bank and Land reforms. (If, I am not mistaken, many of these laws were mostly approved nearing  the end of 2001. This is when the anti-Chavez movement began to escalate dramatically).

2)  30.17% of the voting population agree with writing a letter to the "International Community." (Probably a letter asking for international support to oust Chavez, the democratically-elected President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela).

3)  29.96% to 26.96% of the voting population want Chavez out of power either by binding referendum or simply by not recognizing the he is President ... that is by abolition of his post or by his resignation. (Sounds like much less than the % of people that wanted Brian Mulroney out of office while he was Prime Minister of Canada. He was democratically elected and Canadians waited).

4)  23.7% of the voting population supports the people that have been fired from PDVSA. (Not close to the vast support alleged by the opposition).

5)  22.31% of the voting population want the reversal of laws aimed at controlling media content. (This means that approximately 40% of the people who signed petitions do essentially support some kind of television programming regulation).

6)  10.53% of the population wants all pro-Chavez National Assembly members to be relieved of their (elected) posts. (Does this represent the true radical wing of the opposition? Makes sense to me. This  may therefore mean that approximately 2/3 of the people that signed still have some sense of respect for the democratic system of elections. 1/3 of the opposition does not).

The way I see the "El Firmazo", is that Chavez has just had a "free" poll handed to him and paid for by the opposition. If 85% of the anti-Chavez people signed the petition (maximum 4,426,921), it would represent 5,208,142 possible eligible voters or 43% of the voting population. So, if there were elections today, and 85% of the voting population showed up to vote, Chavez would win at least 57% of the votes.

48% of the signatures came from 6 of the 25 geographical areas of Venezuela (24 plus exterior). The 6 geographical areas represent the main anti-Chavez areas, the major ones being the Caracas and Maracaibo (the home of PDVSA).

Even if the anti-Chavez people have their binding referendum in August 2003, what will it accomplish? If the referendum asks for re-elections, who will win the elections. What if Chavez wins again? What will the opposition people do then?

Maybe all the opposition supporters and anti-Chavez people can do a referendum between themselves and ask the following questions:

1)  "Maybe we should create our own independent state?" (Margarita can fit 4.5 million people and we can afford to import everything, including sardines from Portugal).

2. "Maybe we should leave Venezuela all together and create a new American (USA) state somewhere on the Caribbean or maybe in the hinterlands of Alaska?" (There is oil in Alaska and cheap labor in certain parts of the Caribbean ... how about Cuba?)

When Quebecers held a referendum for separation from Canada they did not achieve the required 50% + one (they were close however). The vast majority of the voters (say, about 85%) had voted for the separatist government in power at the time of the referendum. At one time some separatists were even beginning to consider becoming Americans rather than Canadians.

Quebec is still part of Canada ... things have settled down since.

Oscar Heck oscarheck111@hotmail.com