At the Bell

www.globeandmail.com By ALLAN ROBINSON Monday, February 17, 2003 - Page B9

Indicator anticipated

Don't look for a busy day on the Canadian stock exchanges today with the closing of the U.S. markets for the Presidents' Day holiday.

The major economic news in Canada won't come until tomorrow when Finance Minister John Manley unveils his first federal budget, which is expected to provide for a major increase in spending on health care and other areas.

Today, however, Canadian investors will get a look at some economic data with the release by Statistics Canada of the "leading indicator" -- a broad measure of economic performance.

Economists forecast the indicator will show a slowdown in January with an increase of 0.2 per cent, compared with December's 0.4-per-cent rise.

The leading indicator is an index of 10 major cyclical categories of the Canadian economy, including money supply, the stock market, housing starts, durable goods orders, and employment levels. It also encompasses the U.S. leading indicator because of the importance of exports to the Canadian economy. The index was increasing at a rate of 1.2 per cent in early 2002, before declining late in the year. Recently, it has been erratic, although showing signs of renewed strength.

Earnings season slows

Profit reports slow to a trickle today in the United States and Canada.

Houston-based Southwestern Energy Co. is expected to release its fourth-quarter results today and analysts are forecasting a profit of 16 cents (U.S.) a share, which would bring the profit for the year to 54 cents, according to Thomson Financial/First Call.

Although oil is trading at about $36 a barrel, "most energy stocks are currently priced for $20 a barrel," Merrill Lynch Royal Securities Inc. said in a report. "The oil balance will remain exceedingly tight no matter what happens in Iraq -- it will take a long time for Venezuela to come back on stream," it said.

Over all, about 85 per cent of the companies on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index have reported their fourth-quarter results, and profits have fallen about 34 per cent in the quarter to about $3.60 a share from a year ago, the report said. The $45-billion writeoff by AOL Time Warner Inc. alone depressed the S&P earnings by nearly $5, otherwise reported profits would be up 14 per cent from 2001, Merrill Lynch said. Operating earnings are up 17 per cent over 2001, it said. Regulators convening

Canadian securities lawyers are expected to keep a close eye on the two-day 13th annual Securities Superconference in Toronto today. Regulators from securities commissions, stock exchanges and accounting bodies will look at changes in corporate governance affecting North American business in response to major stock market frauds. An optional workshop on the third day will spotlight insider trading and the need for corporate compliance.