'Homeland security' is a fiction as long as foreigners control oil
LEXINGTON--"Homeland security" is such a straight forward-sounding concept since the Sept. 11 attacks that not many people would say they have trouble understanding what it means. But one of the more sobering implications coming out of preparations for war with Iraq is that, in some instances, there is nothing straightforward about it.
One of the serious issues raised by the crisis is the danger of a catastrophic cutoff of oil from the Middle East. Yet in all the talk about war, too little attention has been paid to energy security. That's curious, because protecting ourselves against politically inspired and unanticipated disruptions in oil supplies from abroad is crucial to the smooth running of our economy.
Consider that America imports 60 percent of its oil, with a quarter of the imports coming from Middle East producers like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Who can predict what looms on the horizon? Terrorist attacks on oil fields throughout the Middle East and beyond? Massive sabotage of pipelines? Terrorist attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf?
It's easy to pretend we can shield ourselves from disaster. The United States, as some suggest, could avoid trouble by stepping up domestic production and buying more oil from our neighbors in Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. But the fact is, we face the same predicament as the rest of the industrial world: Europe, Japan, and Asia rely much more heavily on oil from the Middle East.
We're all in the same boat because there's only one country with existing excess capacity, one country in a position to increase production quickly should some other supplier be knocked out of action. That big producer is Saudi Arabia, a country that doesn't always have our best interests at heart.
Keep in mind that over the past 30 years, we have suffered Middle East supply disruptions caused by the Arab-Israeli War of 1973, the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979, and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The time for complacency has clearly passed.
But how to protect ourselves against a huge supply shutdown? Short term, the answer is building up America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Bush wisely wants to build up the reserve from its current level of 600 million barrels to 700 million barrels, enough to supply U.S. needs for more than a month; his new budget request to Congress would provide almost $200 million to meet that goal. Congress should take prompt action to increase the reserve, since it could be used quickly to fill the gap in the event of an oil disruption.
Long term, we must do all we can, consistent with a market-based environmental policy, to increase domestic production. And we should of course diversify our supply sources, especially from oil-producing countries in Latin America, Africa, and the Caspian Sea region of the former Soviet Union. These regions contain enormous quantities of oil, and President Bush wisely has made broadening the sources of America's oil supplies a touchstone of his energy and foreign policies.
The administration has made it clear that the effort to liberate Iraq is just that--and not a war for oil. American oil companies have invested comparatively little in the turbulent Middle East, allocating the largest share of their exploration and production budgets to countries like Nigeria, Angola, Brazil, and Kazakhstan.
Yes, Iraq has substantial oil reserves, second only to Saudi Arabia. But even if the most optimistic estimates prove to be right, the Iraqi reserves--or major discoveries anywhere else in the world, for that matter--would not guarantee U.S. access to oil.
Once a legitimate government has been established in a liberated Iraq, that government would no doubt determine what role other countries would play in developing Iraq's oil potential. It might well decide that Iraq's future prosperity would be best served by opening its fields to France and Russia, countries with which it already has contracts, or China, now an oil-importing country with rapidly growing demand.
Energy is the lifeblood of our economy. No one can foresee what might lead to a catastrophic cutoff of oil from the Middle East, whether war with Iraq might trigger terrorist attacks against oil fields and facilities throughout the region and beyond. The nation needs to fortify itself against a shock if the oil weapon is used.
Building up the strategic reserve is the answer. We need protection. Now is the time for Congress to act.
BRUCE R. BOLLER is instructor of physics and astronomy at Virginia Military Institute.
Date published: 2/15/2003