Adamant: Hardest metal
Wednesday, February 12, 2003

Chavez and the poor

www.vcrisis.com

Venezuela in 2003 will suffer the worst economic contraction any Latin American country has experienced in more than a century, Venezuelan and international economists say in the Miami daily El Nuevo Herald. According to the economists, the contraction can be attributed to a crippling two-month strike against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. They warn that Venezuela's economic implosion in 2003 will be so severe that the country risks a “social explosion” that Chavez might be unable to control -- even with the armed forces. Most economists agree that Venezuela's economy will contract by at least 25 percent in 2003, with unemployment ballooning to about 30 percent and inflation rising 100 percent. Moreover, experts studying Venezuela's economic collapse also agree that the Chavez government's recently announced exchange and price controls would only aggravate the country's crisis.

Chavez and the poor

Dr. Juan C. Nagel of the University of Michigan argues in a paper titled "Chavez and the Poor": "Not only has poverty increased during Chávez’s tenure, it is worsening rapidly. Macroeconomic conditions hurt the poor disproportionately relative to the rich, and there is no social safety net to speak of. The poor in Chavez’s world are on their own." The problem is that many poor don't know that. Because of terrible economic policies in the past, many of the country's poor were denied access to an education. When someone who uses their colloquialisms tells them that their economic woes are caused by the rich, by the strike, by the oligarchy, etc, many believe him. Later, when they see him handing out free land titles and Chinese tractors to people on television, their hopes rise. However, I have to highlight a couple issues here. First, most poor people will never own land or a Chinese tractor under Chavez. The poor are slowly waking up to this manipulation, as their lives get worse. Thousands are joining the opposition, and marching along with the middle and upper classes. Furthermore, the international media and human rights groups have done next to nothing to reveal Chavez's manipulation of the poor. Instead, they portray him as a "defender" of the poor, a "Robin Hood", when a quick surface scratch reveals that beneath that act is a man desperate for power and revenues. Why haven't the poor benefited by the tremendous windfall of dollars to due oil prices in the last two years? Where's the money in the FIEM? Hugo Chavez Frias is no Robin Hood. In a visit to the US this week, Ecuador's president Lucio Gutierrez said that he wants to be "a close ally of the United States". Obviously, even leftist former coup leaders don't want to follow the example of Chavez's failed policies.

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