Reforms must come from people
www.gulf-news.com Dubai |By Duraid Al Baik, Bassam Za'za' and Jay B. Hilotin | 08-02-2003
Will there be another Gulf War soon? If so, how soon? If not, why?
These are some of the questions asked in every guessing game and coffee shop talk these days as the U.S.-British coalition engages in a cat-and-mouse game of brinkmanship against Iraqi President Saddam Hussain.
But a sinister design of U.S. policy hawks to force democracy to the Arab world via Baghdad is being done not out of deep conviction for America's founding principles but to humiliate Arab leaders.
Dr MaksoudDr Clovis Maksoud, a Western-trained lawyer who resigned his post as Arab League Chief Representative to the UN after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, made this stinging remark during a roundtable discussion at Gulf News main office recently.
The softspoken former diplomat, however, acknowledged the need for reform in the Arab world. "There exists in the Arab world a long tradition of reform. Sometimes the reformists succeed, sometimes they fail," said the former Arab League Chief Representative to the UN. "But reform must be a self-generated function of the people."
Dr Maksoud is one of the intellectual fathers behind the landmark Arab Human Development Report commissioned by the United Nations which acknowledged the "poverty of opportunity" that has afflicted the Arab people.
Dr Maksoud, stressed: "Work on this report was done way before the September 11 attacks. It was about the Arabs, done by the Arabs and for the Arabs."
But Dr Maksoud pointed out that America has a spotty record in espousing transparency and democracy in other countries.
"You can't go around demanding transparency and democracy on others while turning a blind eye on your own backyard that is being 'Enronised' right under your nose," he said.
He was referring to the numbers-fudging by top auditing firms that hid corporate greed from the balance sheets which led to the collapse of energy giant Enron, WorldCom as well as accounting firms likes Andersen.
Dr Maksoud, with a doctorate in jurisprudence from the George Washington University and did post-graduate studies at Oxford University in Britain, is currently a Professor of International Relations and Director of the Centre for the Global South at the American University in Washington.
During his recent visit to the UAE, he was joined by two leading Arab-Americans: James Sams, an Arab-American lawyer and president and CEO of Maryland-based American Development Services Corp.; and Abul Huda Farouki, a businessman who represents the Financial Instrument and Investment Corporation, based in Virginia.
Their mission was to lay down the foundation to build more bridges of understanding between Americans and Arabs.
For his part, Sams thinks that the strike on Iraq won't occur because the economic, political and strategic damage would be overwhelming.
"I believe that when it's about to press the go-ahead bottom, the U.S. administration will come to recognise more that the strike on Iraq is evitable. The economic, political and strategic cost is cheaper than it would be in case of a military action."
All threats and aggressiveness of Saddam Hussain could be contained. Yet the Bush Administration won't be able to contain the political uncertainty as well as the economic damage specially that uncertainty it will bring to the oil market.
Farouki believes that the degree of anti-American sentiment that exists throughout the Arab world isn't really understood clearly by most Americans.
He stressed the need for a "dialogue of civilisations", which would enrich the Americans' understanding of Arabs, and vice versa.
Following are excerpts of the roundtable:
Why do you think there will be no war? Sams: The arguments against the war from the purely American national interest perspective are persuasive. The economic consequences will be so potentially damaging as well as the political and strategic consequences.
SamsI think that by the end of the day the people who will make that final decision to push the go-ahead button will come to recognise that and will not do it.
I also believe that the large-scale U.S. military movement towards the Gulf is being made to create an impression or a clear capacity to go to war. I think that the U.S. deems that unless they pursue up to the degree they have done, they will never be able to contain Saddam Hussain's aggressiveness.
The Americans had Saddam contained for the last 10 years but at a very high price paid by the Iraqi people. Also Hussain, in a sense humiliated the UN and U.S. when he expelled and kicked out the weapon inspectors.
With this new effort at inspection, the ultimate consequence, I think, is that he will be contained. He might not be removed, but whatever threat he represents will be contained.
All that is a conjecture. Recently, a friend, Michael Hudson, told me that definitely the U.S. have gone so far towards war and now, if they don't go (to Baghdad), then that would be backing down.
There is a strong element within the State Department and Defense Department that is opposed to war; and I just believe that they all in the end prevail which I hope they do.
How long do you think that the argument over war - or no war - would take before a decision is made? Sams: The argument would last for the next several months. Some people think that it should take place sometime in February because of the weather conditions and which is another reason why I believe that there is going to be no war. I think that this the inspection process under the UN and the opposition from some of our allies such as Germany, France, China and Russia will make it difficult.
How do you think that would affect the U.S. economically? Sams: The political uncertainty in itself is tremendously damaging right now to the businessmen. And there's the cliché that if there's one thing businessmen cannot stand, it is uncertainty. And the one thing that Bush policies had brought to the economy in the last years had been uncertainty. Thus as a consequence the decisions to invest aren't being made.
You can tell just from the perspective of the stock market. It isn't the best gage of economic activity in the U.S., but nonetheless whenever there is a sense that war isn't eminent, the market shoots up.
But whenever there is a sense that war is eminent, the market goes down. It is, to a certain degree, fixed by the fear of rising energy prices that was mitigated when the Opec made a decision to say they'll match whatever they're loosing from Venezuela or whatever they would lose from Iran.
That's not enough! I think that the market recognises the damage of uncertainty is probably more than anything else."
FaroukiDo you think that the Americans are aware of the political price that they have to pay if they go to war? Farouki: I believe that the degree of anti-American sentiment that exists throughout the Arab world isn't really understood clearly by most Americans.
I've had the opportunity to travel to most of the Arab countries in the past two years, and since the September 11 crisis, I detected a growing anti-American sentiment on the part of a wide range of people, not just the street but at almost any level; academic, political, business and government."
The reason for the misunderstanding of anti-American sentiment in the US is the great deal of lack of understanding of Islam, the Arab world and Arab individuals and what motivates them to have such feelings.
How would the U.S. media or politicians explain to the American society the recent ambush attack on American troops in Kuwait or any similar acts? Farouki: These acts don't play out well at all in the U.S. media. Any action directed against any American interest or individual obviously doesn't play well as far as the public is concerned.
It actually brings about or fosters an atmosphere of greater misunderstanding. It creates more negative feelings of the part of the Americans towards the Arab world. Those negative feelings exist and are growing.
Do you think that the American masses would rise up against war? Farouki: There is a growing feeling among the American people opposed to war. An evidence of this is the growing protests taking place.
I think that those protests are going to snowball and the number of people would also increase. I believe that it has to do with the fact that in general, Americans don't want to be part of the war effort.
There are a lot of negative experiences that occurred in the past with respect to going to war which are coming back into play right now. There is a very good chance that the anti-war protests will increase in size.
What is the main reason behind not going to war? Is it the political price, economic price or the opposition of people in the U.S.? Sams: I think it is a combination of all reasons, especially the recognition of the political and economical price that the U.S. will have to pay. Then there is the basic concern, which is the disruption to their lives or the number of casualties.
That is why there is such a strong emphasis by advocates of war that it will not produce many casualties because the strikes will be "surgical", the Iraqi people will erupt in joy when the war starts and welcome the liberators. They really emphasise that.
A lot of Americans believe that. Yet the closer we get (to war), the more they will come to recognise that the price will be heavy.
How do you explain the mounting mobilisation of U.S. and British troops in the area? Sams: They want to create the real potential for war. I don't want to call it a bluff. But there has to be this real potential, by mobilising the troops. If they weren't doing that, then there will be no movement on the part of Saddam Hussein.
The Americans want to make it very clear that in the absence of Saddam Hussein's compliance to the UN resolutions, he will have to face the consequences. If they didn't have this deployment then, it wouldn't take place. This is brinkmanship at its ultimate.
The ultimate decision makers will have enough good judgment to avoid war. I think the Americans have pulled back on the "regime change" as a primary objective. I haven't heard that rhetoric for quite some time. They are stressing now on disarming Saddam of his mass destructive weapons.
The real defined goal by the UN is the destruction of weapons of mass destruction, and it's very hard to determine precisely when they will have achieved that goal.
Clearly there is a process at work which is again one of the reasons why I don't believe that there is going to be war - because that process is strengthening and not weakening.
Now there is more support for the process of inspection and probably expanding it. Thus, I don't think there is a realistic prospect for a new UN resolution within the next several weeks. I think that the US would find it extremely unethical to launch a war in the base of all this UN activity taking place.
After the current period of uncertainty, do you think that the moderate Arab nations would be affected by calls for democracy and women's empowerment. Or would the U.S. forget about it later on or maybe help those nations to develop that sort of approach? Farouki: In the last couple of years, the U.S. media has really latched onto the business of introducing change in the Arab countries. They latched onto the main issues like lack of democracy, empowerment of women, transparency and corruption.
There has been so much publicity on those issues and I don't think that's going to stop. It will continue. War or no war, I think there will be more of that. I further believe that the American media had adopted this. Certain forces have actually made this an issue that the media will continue to focus on."
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