Venezuelan drive to oust Chavez shifts strategy to early elections as strike reaches 60th day

boston.com By Jorge Rueda, Associated Press, 1/30/2003 22:05

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) With many opponents of President Hugo Chavez preparing to return to work, Venezuelans leading a 60-day-old strike shifted tactics Thursday, diving headlong into an initiative to shorten his six-year term with international help.

After two grueling months, strike organizers have agreed to let shopping malls, banks, franchises and schools reopen next week. Meanwhile, production continues to creep upwards in the vital oil industry, where the walkout has been strongest.

As diplomats from six nations headed to Caracas on Thursday to push for early elections, opposition leaders were planning a petition drive to support several measures, including a proposed constitutional amendment that would:

Cut presidential terms from six years to four;

Hold new presidential and congressional elections this year;

Create a new elections council to organize any vote;

Get the Supreme Court to determine when, exactly, a recall vote on Chavez's presidency can be held;

Allow Chavez and legislators to seek re-election.

Similar ideas were floated by former President Jimmy Carter during a recent visit to Caracas. The government said it was studying the opposition's proposal but won't allow it to shorten Chavez's term.

Diplomats from the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal and Spain dubbed the ''Group of Friends'' of Venezuela planned a private dinner meeting late Thursday with Cesar Gaviria, secretary general of the Organization of American States. Gaviriahas mediated talks here since November.

The envoys, including Curt Struble, acting U.S. assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, planned meetings with Chavez and the opposition on Friday.

Gaviria said the diplomats can monitor compliance with any electoral pact and reduce tensions that have led to six deaths since the strike began Dec. 2. ''The country can't sustain more tension,'' he said.

Strike leader Manuel Cova of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation said Thursday a new presidential election could be held as early as March.

''To do this we need the guarantees of the international community,'' Cova said. ''If we don't do it this year, we'll be in prison, or in exile, there won't be press freedom. ... We must do it this year.''

Chavez had welcomed Carter's ideas about early elections. But he also has threatened to abandon the OAS-mediated talks, saying he won't negotiate with ''terrorists.''

Chavez failed to expand the ''Friends'' to include governments more sympathetic to his populist revolution. He has since warned the diplomats not to interfere in internal affairs.

The opposition called the strike to demand a nonbinding referendum on Chavez's rule in February, as petitioned by 2 million Venezuelan voters. It later upped the ante to demand Chavez's ouster.

But the Supreme Court, citing a technicality, indefinitely postponed the referendum. Chavez, elected in 2000 to a six-year term, shows no signs of leaving.

The deadlock has hobbled production in the world's No. 5 oil exporter. Analysts predict the economy will shrink 25 percent this year after an 8 percent contraction last year.

The government has cut its $25 billion 2003 budget by 10 percent and announced Thursday it will cut the state-owned oil monopoly's $8 billion budget by $2.7 billion to offset oil losses. Oil accounts for half of government income and 30 percent of Venezuela's $100 billion gross domestic product.

Chavez says oil production has reached 1.4 million barrels a day, and exports 1 million barrels a day a third of pre-strike export levels.

Dissident oil executives say production is about 1 million barrels and exports half that. Venezuela still must import gasoline.

The oil company said a key loading terminal in Puerto La Cruz, in east Venezuela, had resumed automated operations, meaning it will likely boost its output. The terminal, which loaded 800,000 barrels per day before the strike, has been loading just 30,000 barrels per day.

Also Thursday, Amerada Hess Corp. said a refinery it operates with the oil monopoly in St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands had received its first shipment of Venezuelan crude since December.

After spending more than $70 million a day to support the bolivar currency, the government suspended sales of U.S. dollars until it unveils currency controls next week.

The bolivar, which has weakened 25 percent against the dollar this year, may be fixed at 1,600 per dollar, with monthly devaluations afterward, said Ricardo Sanguino, a member of Congress' finance committee.

The dollar has reached 2,500 bolivars on black market trading.