Words of hate abound in Venezuela
news.ft.com By Richard Lapper and Andy Webb-Vidal Published: January 30 2003 19:28 | Last Updated: January 30 2003 19:28
Striking workers may be trickling back to work, oil production edging upwards and the banks opening again. But when diplomats from the six-nation group of friends meet Venezuela's political leaders and César Gaviria, the secretary-general of the Organisation of American States on Friday, they will find a country that is far from back to normal.
Coming after last year's failed coup against President Hugo Chávez, an eight-week general strike, which is still going strong in the strategically important oil industry, has inflamed tensions to boiling point. In the words of Roy Chaderton Matos, Venezuela's foreign minister, "hate and irrationality" are making a peaceful resolution of the deadlock difficult to achieve.
A weary Mr Gaviria, who has been trying to bring the warring parties together since November, says there is at least a mutual recognition of the need to tone down belligerent language. There are even signs that the two sides may be starting to see the necessity of new elections.
During negotiations in the past few days some progress has been made on agreeing guidelines to reduce the sporadic violence that would make an election impossible. Gilberto Sabóia, the special envoy of Brazil's foreign ministry, says elections in such a highly charged, polarised atmosphere could even be counter-productive.
Among the many obstacles as talks get under way, two issues in particular stand out. On the one hand, the government is deeply suspicious of the power and intentions of the Venezuelan media, which have unequivocally thrown their weight behind the campaign to oust Mr Chávez. Last April the private television stations openly supported the coup. During the current strike they have suspended commercials in favour of endless political adverts backing the Democratic Co-ordinator, the loosely knit opposition umbrella group.
Mr Chaderton Matos says the media's reporting has contributed to the polarisation in sentiment. "The media have been calling on the military to disobey orders and have openly advocated the president's assassination," he says. As a condition for elections the government would insist that a ballot could only take place if its candidates received fair treatment from the anti-government press.
But already there are signs that tolerance may be coming to an end. Mr Chávez said last weekend at the anti-globalisation summit in Porto Alegre, Brazil, that the outside world should not be surprised if privately owned media were closed down in the weeks ahead.
On the other hand, government opponents have little or no confidence in the autonomy of the judiciary and other institutions established by the reforms of the early years of Mr Chávez's administration. For this reason, government pledges to abide by the constitution - and in Mr Chaderton Matos' words, "play by the rules of the game" - carry little weight with its critics.
Reinforcing fears that the president himself has little intention of playing clean, many analysts say Mr Chávez is already moving to derail opposition hopes for a recall referendum on his rule or early elections by tinkering with the judiciary, which could lead to several reasons to delay a ballot.
In one thinly veiled sign this week, the government announced proposals to increase the number of Supreme Court judges from 20 to 30. "There is no reason, other than political control of the high court, to explain this sudden preoccupation for increasing the number of its members," said Teodoro Petkoff, a moderate critic who condemned the April coup against the president.
All this will be further complicated by the spreading of government influence into nearly all corners of the economy. Foreign exchange controls - details of which are expected to be announced next week - will give the government ample opportunity to supply dollars to its supporters, and deny them to its detractors.
Additional reporting by Raymond Colitt in São Paulo