Alaska key to first rise in U.S. crude output since 1991

www.petroleumnewsalaska.com Alaska's Source for Oil and Gas News January 2003

Vol. 8, No. 4 Week of January 26, 2003

Gary Park PNA Canadian Correspondent

American Petroleum Institute reports 5% increase in Alaska production vs. 0.7% for all of U.S.; well completions down 25% for fourth quarter to 6,680

A laska led the way in boosting United States’ crude output in 2002 — the first full-year rise in domestic production since 1991, the American Petroleum Institute said Jan. 15 in its Monthly Statistical Report.

A 5 percent rise in Alaska volumes, also the state’s first 12-month gain since 1991, contributed to an 0.7 percent increase in U.S. output to 5.842 million barrels per day, the API said.

But a cloud was building on the supply horizon, with total well completions for the United States down 25 percent to 6,680 wells for the final quarter of 2002, despite robust oil and natural gas prices.

For December, U.S. crude production was 5.865 million barrels per day, off 0.4 percent from a year earlier. Lower 48 production slipped 1.1 percent to 4.79 million barrels per day, but Alaska production for the month climbed 2.8 percent to 1.075 million barrels per day.

Crude imports for 2002 were down sharply by 3 percent to 9.043 million barrels per day and product imports dropped 9.6 percent to 2.298 million barrels per day. However, the year ended with imported crude rising by 0.3 percent to 8.849 million barrels per day, while products jumped 12.5 percent to 2.423 million barrels per day.

“U.S. petroleum imports, following several years of rapid growth, fell sharply in 2002,” the API said. “Overall imports lagged the record level reached in 2001 by 4.5 percent.

“The share of U.S. demand supplied by imports shrank to 57.6 percent, the lowest since 1999.” Imports in 2001 accounted for 60 percent of U.S. demand.

Domestic petroleum inventories declined by 100 million barrels in 2002, the biggest annual decline since 150 million barrels in 1999, with crude and product inventories exiting 2002 at 934.3 million barrels, off 3.6 percent for the month and 9.8 percent for the year.

Crude inventories accounted for the largest share of the decline by falling 36 million barrels.

Canada leading supplier in October In its latest breakdown of U.S. imports, the API noted that for October 2002 petroleum from the Persian Gulf represented 18.2 percent of the total, compared with 25.5 percent a year earlier.

The leading supplier countries for the month were Canada at 2.073 million barrels per day, or a 17.7 percent share of imports and 10.6 percent of domestic product supplied.

The other sources over 1 million barrels per day were Saudi Arabia 1.69 million, Venezuela 1.616 million and Mexico 1.577 million.

API said 2002 was highlighted by “dramatically lower demand for most petroleum products as a result of the aftermath of 9/11, an unusually warm winter, price volatility, OPEC supply fluctuations and a slow national economy.”

John Felmy, director of policy analysis and statistics, said 2003 “promises to be another challenging year,” although U.S. consumers should be assured that the industry will “make every effort to see that consumer fuel needs will continue to be met.”

Even if there is a temporary disruption caused by internal tensions in Venezuela and possible war in Iraq, Felmy said there are other “significant sources of oil,” noting that U.S. petroleum companies have increased worldwide and domestic sources of crude with available new technologies.

Prices soar Because of geopolitical events, West Texas Intermediate crude soared 80 percent above its low point at the start of 2002 to end the year at $33 per barrel. Natural gas prices also rose 80 percent, with marketed domestic production averaging 54.2 billion cubic feet per day in September, the latest month for which figures were available.

In its fourth-quarter 2002 drilling statistics, API estimated completions of U.S. oil and natural gas wells and dry holes dropped by 25 percent from the same quarter of 2001.

For the three months, oil wells were down by 26 percent to 1,566, gas wells dropped 28 percent to 4,143 and dry holes declined by 5 percent to 971, for total estimated completions of 6,680 compared with 8,889 a year earlier.

Total exploratory completions were off 38 percent for the fourth quarter and development completions were down 24 percent, while total footage drilled showed a 24 percent decrease to 35.2 million feet.

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