Venzuela's endgame: Dialogue or anarchy?
www.gopbi.com Sunday, January 26 By Susan Ferriss, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer Sunday, January 26, 2003
CARACAS, Venezuela -- Concertina wire spirals across the lawn of the Terraza del Avila apartment complex.
At the gate, neighborhood watch leader Luis Eduardo Manresa clutches a walkie-talkie as part of an emergency plan to deal with mob attacks or looting.
If dialogue or high-pressure water hoses don't work, Manresa says, the complex's residents, mostly professionals, will use whatever they might have, including guns, to defend themselves.
Manresa, a professor of international law, directs an organization called the Latin American Center for Dialogue Between Civilizations and Cultures.
Manresa isn't the only one terrified that Venezuelan society, polarized and volatile in the midst of a political crisis, could explode into chaos if the stalemate is not soon broken.
"Jesus Christ can come here to talk, but if there's no will to really dialogue, then what?" he said with a shrug.
For more than eight weeks, President Hugo Chavez has defied an opposition that declared a "citizens' strike" on Dec. 2 in an effort to oust the bombastic president or force him to agree to an early election the opposition is certain he would lose.
The crisis has already caused so much damage to the national oil industry -- Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest producer -- that it could take years to recover. The world economy, too, is feeling the effects in the form of higher oil prices.
In a country where most complain they have been excluded from the benefits of the oil economy, class divisions have never seemed so sharp.
A sizable number of Venezuelans defend Chavez as an avenging angel who was democratically elected in 1998 by a populace disgusted with the traditional politicians' broken promises.
"From our point of view, the president has given in too much" to the opposition, said Jose Pereira, a policeman and Chavez supporter. "We've waited 40 years to participate in a real democracy."
But to the opposition, Chavez has become an authoritarian and a megalomaniac who violates of the constitution he constantly invokes.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell on Friday urged acceptance of a proposal by former President Jimmy Carter, who suggested two possible scenarios for an early election.
Carter met with Chavez and his opponents early last week and urged them to consider his proposals.
One calls for lifting the strike in exchange for a pledge to let the opposition pursue a constitutional amendment to shorten Chavez's term to four years, something that would trigger a general election.
The other proposal calls for a binding referendum on Chavez in August, midway through his term, a date Chavez himself has argued would be feasible.
On Wednesday, the day after Carter left, Venezuela's Supreme Court sided with a Chavez in his appeal to block a nonbinding referendum on his presidency set for Feb. 2.
And on Thursday, when Chavez's supporters took to streets here to demonstrate their support, he seemed as defiant as always.
"The Venezuelan people don't want violence," he said, gesturing emotionally. "But it's convenient to remind the coup-plotting, fascist oligarchy attempting to overthrow the Bolivarian government that the Venezuelan people are willing to defend their government."