'Friendly countries' group to seek way out of Venezuela crisis

news.ft.com By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas Published: January 17 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: January 17 2003 4:00

Hopes for progress in ending Venezuela's political impasse rose yesterday following the creation of a group of countries aimed at helping to find a solution to the tense deadlock between the government of President Hugo Chávez and opposition groups.

César Gaviria, secretary general of the Organisation of American States (OAS), who is trying to broker a settlement in Caracas, said late on Wednesday in Quito, the Ecuadorean capital, that a "group of friendly countries" would formally back the OAS mission.

The nascent group, initially proposed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, at the request of Mr Chávez, will include Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the US.

Analysts were yesterday attempting to establish how, if at all, the group would be able to reinvigorate the OAS's efforts to bring together the two sides before rising levels of political violence tear them further apart.

Miguel Diaz, director of the South America Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Brazil might be able to put pressure on Mr Chávez, while the US could influence elements in the opposition.

"The international community is in a race against time," said Mr Diaz. "If during the next few weeks there is additional violence in the streets it could undermine this diplomatic initiative."

A non-binding referendum on whether Mr Chávez should step down, which opinion polls suggest would win the support of as many as 70 per cent of voters, is due to be held on February 2.

Local analysts expect that in the coming days the supreme court will declare the question unconstitutional, increasing the chances of violent demonstrations against Mr Chávez.

Diplomats said a consensus appeared to have been reached in Quito over the need to lobby for early elections as the only solution to recovering governability in Venezuela.

Any solution will also have to find a way of ending a six-week strike by opposition-aligned workers at PDVSA, the state oil company, which has crippled oil production and is raising the prospect of domestic economic chaos and deeper social unrest.

Foreign ministers from the "group of friends" are likely to act as emissaries from heads of state in visits backing the OAS mission, an ambassador to Caracas said.