Venezuela opposition eyes election options

www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.15.03, 1:05 PM ET By Patrick Markey

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition leaders, anticipating the Supreme Court will block a Feb. 2 referendum on whether President Hugo Chavez should quit, Wednesday started to examine alternatives in their campaign to force the leftist leader to resign.

Venezuela's Supreme Court is still studying the legality of the referendum called by the opposition on whether Chavez should step down. But opposition leaders have said they expect the nation's top court would reject the proposed poll.

Andres Velasquez, a member of the opposition alliance Coordinadora Democratica, said it was an "open secret" that the court would suspend the referendum. He said they were eyeing other options, such as constitutional reform and a constituent assembly to trigger early elections.

"It would be a pity for the country if the Supreme Court yields to pressure from the government to halt this referendum. They would be robbing the nation of its constitutional rights," Velasquez told Reuters.

It was unclear when the court will rule on the referendum. Foes of Chavez, who are staging a six-week-old strike that has slashed the nation's vital oil production, hope the nonbinding referendum would bolster their fight against a president they charge has caused political and economic chaos with his left-wing reforms and dictatorial rule.

The shutdown, which began on Dec. 2, has threatened to engulf the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter in economic turmoil and helped push up global oil prices to two-year highs. The opposition, including rebel state oil firm managers, has vowed to keep up the strike until Chavez quits and calls elections.

U.S. oil futures Wednesday were up 65 cents at $33.02 in an energy market rattled by Venezuela's strike and fears that a U.S. war with Iraq would disrupt crude supplies. Venezuela usually supplies about a sixth of U.S. oil imports.

Venezuela's bolivar, battered by political and economic uncertainty, fell Wednesday for the third consecutive day as jitters over the strike sent the currency down as much as 7 percent against the U.S. dollar. It closed down 3.4 percent.

PUSH FOR ELECTIONS, INTERNATIONAL APPEALS Chavez, a populist elected in 1998 who survived a coup in April, has rejected calls for early elections and vowed to defeat the strike. He says the constitution only allows a binding referendum on his rule after August -- halfway through his current term.

The bitter deadlock over his rule intensified after the opposition stepped up its daily campaign of street protests and rallies. At least 5 people have been killed and dozens injured in street clashes since the strike began.

While a consultative referendum would not legally force Chavez from power, the opposition hopes that a decisive rejection of his government in such a poll will strengthen the legitimacy of their call for elections.

Opposition representatives are also studying a constitutional amendment that would shorten the president's term in office. That measure would require a referendum and a majority vote in the National Assembly. The opposition may also try to call a constituent assembly, which could alter the constitution to allow early elections.

International pressure is increasing for the two sides to break the stalemate as talks brokered by the Organization of American States (OAS) have so far failed to reach an accord.

Opposition representatives held meetings in the United States Wednesday to shore up support for their campaign. They are also promoting the possible creation of the "group of friends" of regional nations to back peace negotiations.

Nobel Peace Prize winner and former U.S. president Jimmy Carter also arrived in Venezuela, where he plans to hold talks with both sides later this month.

Chavez visited Quito Wednesday for the inauguration of Ecuador's new President Lucio Gutierrez during which regional presidents were also to discuss the fledging "group of friends" initiative. Chavez will meet with U.N. head Kofi Annan Thursday to discuss the Venezuelan crisis. I