New year of discontent looms for Latam oil investors
www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.09.03, 9:44 AM ET By Andrei Khalip
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil9 (Reuters) - Latin America is treacherous territory for oil and gas investors, awash with fears about Venezuela's general strike and public unrest, economic crisis in Argentina and Brazil's new leftist government.
Sector analysts suggest investors "sit it out" until calm returns to the region, which partly opened to foreign investment in the past decade and is still considered less risky than the former Soviet Union and some Middle East countries.
"It was a time of big shocks last year in Latin America, but it is a big question whether we see any recovery now," said Matthew Shaw of Wood Mackenzie oil consultancy in Edinburgh. "It's time to wait and see, really."
The problems in the region, which in total produces more oil than world leader Saudi Arabia, add to the pressure most foreign companies are facing at home to cut unnecessary risks in a sluggish global economy.
Although some assets have become seemingly cheap, it is difficult for companies to evaluate actual opportunities because of uncertainties over the region's economic prospects and politics, he added.
"The lower ability to tolerate higher risks, less support for new ventures, resulted in many trying to sell down positions, especially in natural gas," said Jed Bailey, Cambridge Energy Research Association's director for Latin America, who also expected "a very tough" 2003.
With Venezuela's strike still crippling crude output in the world's fifth-largest oil exporter whose political future is murky at best, investors have plenty to worry about, even though higher world oil prices due to the strike will still bring a net benefit to those with diversified portfolios.
"There is concern about restarting production of heavy oil in Venezuela," said Myles McDougall of ABN Amro in London. It may take months to reestablish wellhead pressure and some wells may have to be redrilled in costly operations, experts said.
Heavy oil accounts for more than half of the Andean nation's output that slumped from 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in November to 600,000 bpd now. Some refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast depend on this type of crude.
The strike, organized by the opposition seeking to oust Populist President Hugo Chavez, affected state oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela's credibility and raised concerns about its debt, threatening Venezuela's efforts to lure fresh foreign investment into its energy sector.
PROBLEMS DOWN SOUTH Despite a modest economic recovery in the past few months in Argentina, hit by its worst economic crisis ever, drilling activity is low and investors are bracing for a new bout of uncertainty ahead of early presidential polls in May.
A freeze on fuel prices and a 30 percent retention of export revenues in dollars are also hampering investment.
Brazil, the region's No. 3 oil producer after Mexico and Venezuela, has lived through a general crisis of investor confidence ahead of presidential elections last October that brought leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to power.
Analysts say the statements by his new energy officials have been moderate so far, suggesting that a free-market fuel pricing system and sales of exploration licenses to foreign firms would be preserved. But they said they needed time to evaluate whether that commitment would last.
Also, foreign firms have lost some of their enthusiasm about new oil concessions offered by the government since 1999, and are trying to reshuffle their portfolios after only a few small finds of heavy oil in deep-water offshore areas.
Analysts and company officials alike say the government must come up with tax breaks to maintain Brazil's oil appeal.
As for natural gas-rich but land-locked Bolivia, most analysts are skeptical that companies working there would be able to ship liquefied natural gas to the U.S. markets any time soon, due to Bolivia's political problems with sea access.
Meanwhile, slow growth of natgas consumption in neighboring Brazil has thwarted Bolivia's plans for bigger exports there.
Latin America's No. 1 oil producer Mexico offers a calmer picture, but there is also room for uncertainty, as the start of multi-service contracts that state oil monopoly Pemex is expected to award to foreign firms has been delayed.
Most experts singled out tiny Ecuador as the country with the steadiest oil development. Ecuador will be selling concessions for one of its big oil fields this year and should finish a 450,000 bpd pipeline to coastal ports for export.
Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service