Strikers threaten tax revolt
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Venezuela's opposition threatened on Monday to add a tax revolt to a strike that has blocked oil exports and jolted world energy markets but so far failed to make President Hugo Chavez resign.
The leftist leader has thumbed his nose at massive marches, one of which brought a million demonstrators onto the streets of Caracas, and at a 29-day-old strike that has closed down shipments from the world's fifth-largest oil exporting nation.
"We're bashing up against a wall," one of the protest leaders, Carlos Fernandez, president of Venezuela's main business chamber, Fedecameras, said.
The opposition demands immediate elections and has refused Chavez's offer of a referendum on his rule in August, saying that if it waits that long he will wreck the country. Chavez says under the constitution August is the earliest date an election may be held to assess popular support for his rule.
"Today we are taking the road of legitimate civil disobedience," said another strike leader, union boss Carlos Ortega. "We will refuse to pay taxes to a regime which renders no accounts and squanders the money of the people."
The opposition could also call an assembly to rewrite the constitution, Fernandez said, adding that the law allows for such a move if it is clearly shown to be the will of the people.
Tax evasion is rife in Venezuela at the best of times.
Chavez, a former paratrooper who was jailed after a botched coup in 1992 but was elected in 1998, has fought hard against the strike, firing executives from state oil giant PDVSA and ordering troops onto halted oil tankers.
In a major role-reversal for the oil-rich nation, he has imported some gasoline to ease lines hundreds of cars long at filling stations. The government said that oil output would climb back to a third of normal next week, but PDVSA rebels said efforts to kick-start petroleum production were failing.
The squeeze on Venezuelan exports, which normally provide 13% of U.S. oil imports, have spooked world energy markets already fretting about a possible war in Iraq. US crude futures jumped to a two-year high early on Monday before sliding sharply to US$31.45 a barrel as the OPEC cartel indicated its readiness to come to consumers' rescue by boosting output.
The opposition, backed by business and unions but attracting support from most Venezuelans, accuses Chavez of authoritarianism, corruption and economic incompetence in what they say is a quest to establish a Cuban-style dictatorship.
Chavez condemns as "fascists" his opponents, who also backed a failed coup against him in April. His class war rhetoric and lengthy speeches that ramble from references to his grandmother to threats against his enemies make Venezuela's educated elite apoplectic.
The president, whose term is due to run until 2007, has seen his popularity plunge, even among his core constituency, Venezuela's poor majority. But, with about 30% support, he is more popular than any individual opposition figure.
Meanwhile, the country's economy is suffocating without petroleum, which normally provides 80 percent of exports and 50% of government revenues.
Markets could panic
While Chavez points to US$15 billion in Central Bank reserves to allow him to withstand the strike, analysts say the economy, already in deep recession, could buckle if world financial markets panic about Venezuela in the new year.
Caracas-based political analyst Janet Kelly said she has hoped an agreement would be reached before economic pressures explode. But she said personal animosity between Chavez and the strike leaders was a barrier.
"Chavez is crazy, but like a fox. I wouldn't underestimate him. A critical rule of negotiation is never reveal that you're willing to give in tomorrow," she said.
"The opposition has equal problems, because if they really bring the country to a total crisis, of economic isolation, there is a point at which the country turns against them."
The opposition still holds cards it has yet to play, such as a march on the presidential palace in the Chavez stronghold of central Caracas. Many fear this could lead to violence, remembering the 19 deaths during a similar march before last April's coup.
Strike leaders are also organizing a nonbinding referendum in early February, although Chavez says he will pay no attention to the result even if 90% vote against him.
While holding firm around its petroleum core, the strike was fraying around the edges, with many smaller companies and restaurants opening their doors.
Several hundred thousand opposition supporters marched in Caracas on Sunday, but the protest was a fraction of the size of a million-strong demonstration a week earlier.
Talks between the opposition and the government, brokered by the Organization of American States, have made little progress. In public, communication between the two sides is largely limited to threats and insults.
"Chavez treats this like a war. He's a soldier and soldiers think of war as victory or defeat. If he were a democrat, which he isn't, he'd be giving some," said Fernandez.