Cycle of despair: Latin American regime changes bring little fortune

By NIKO PRICE, Associated Press Writer Published 8:08 a.m. PST Monday, December 30, 2002

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Latin Americans have spent the past few years getting rid of entrenched systems that have failed them. But some are beginning to realize their new leaders aren't making life any better than the old did.

With much of the region gripped by uncertainty over struggling economies, the social unrest that is now paralyzing Venezuela could foreshadow wider threats to newfound democracies across the region.

After President Bush promised to make this "the century of the Americas," the U.S. government's focus has shifted to the war on terrorism.

But the major concern in Latin America harks back to Bill Clinton's mantra: "It's the economy, stupid." Without a strong recovery in the United States, whose economy dominates the Americas, there is little Latin American leaders of any political stripe will be able to do.

For two decades, the region has been replacing authoritarian regimes with democratic governments in a U.S.-oriented, free-market mold. The problem has been that new policies haven't done much to improve people's lives.

So voters have begun to opt for something else - anything else.

Economic woes led to the 2000 election in Mexico of Vicente Fox, a conservative businessman who toppled 70 years of single-party rule with promises of huge economic growth and first-world status for the country.

Discontent in Brazil led to the election this year of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leftist former union boss who promised to make fighting hunger his top priority. His victory was seen as a rejection of the free-market policies of the defeated government, which had curbed runaway inflation but left the economy stagnant and millions in poverty or jobless.

Ecuadorans just elected as president Lucio Gutierrez, a former army colonel who led a short-lived coup in 2000 aimed at ending endemic corruption and halting the spread of poverty.

Argentina has seen a revolving door of presidents since the country defaulted last year on much of its $141 billion foreign debt. A presidential election in April will determine whether the country continues on the free-market path or moves to the left.

Venezuelans, meanwhile, are learning unconventional leaders may not fulfill hopes either.

The radical populist Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1998 and again in 2000, promising to remake society after a 40-year alternation of power between two corrupt, centrist political parties. But he has been unable to make the once envied oil-based economy grow and has seen unemployment and poverty rise.

A powerful but confused opposition movement briefly ousted Chavez last April only to see him return two days later. The country is now a month into a general strike and sometimes violent street protests aimed at ousting him.

The protesters demonstrate in the name of democracy, despite the fact that Chavez's term lasts until 2007 and the constitution doesn't allow a referendum on his reign until August.

"We all thought he'd bring prosperity, but he's making us poorer," said Eliezer Chavez, a 20-year-old computer consultant who voted for Chavez but has joined the demonstrations demanding his removal.

He said the opposition movement is "totally democratic," because democracy for him means people can oust an elected leader they feel isn't doing a good job - whether the constitution allows it or not.

Part of the threat to the region's young democracies is that democracy in Latin America is largely superficial. There are elections, but leaders often do not serve all the people. The idea of a civic spirit is not deeply ingrained.

"These societies have adopted some of the more superficial aspects of democracy and market economies," said Steve Johnson, a Latin American policy analyst for the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington. "You have electoral democracy, but you're basically still electing an autocrat."

There is no indication that the region will reverse its economic slide - or that its institutions can stand up to the challenge.

"I think things will get worse in Latin America, and the problems will deteriorate further," said Sidney Weintraub, director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, another Washington think tank.

"I think you'll get breakdowns in democracy, and as the economies fail people will experiment in ways that will only hurt them more."