<a href=www.vheadline.com>venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, June 22, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

"No hay peor sordo que quien no desea oir" "The worst type of deafness belongs to those who do not want to listen" Old Spanish proverb.

"Chavez has utilized 60,000 minutes of national TV and radio hookups to distill his hate... in his "yagua" speech ... only two hours long ... he mentions "Chavez" twice as often as he mentions Bolivar ... he mentions revolution 16 times and democracy 9 times ... he uses terms like armed forces, army, soldiers, generals ... 207 times and citizens only one time ... he mentions coupsters 30 times ... traitors 6 times ... oligarchs 2 times ... squalids not at all ... Chavez shamelessly suggests that Venezuelan history started with him..." The Distillery of Hate; Antonio Pasquali, Venezuelan philosopher and communications expert Tal Cual, page 9, June 20, 2003.

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: My summary of a plan being put together by Venezuelans who are preparing for a probable post-Chavez transition has received at least two replies from followers of the current President. I would like to comment on those replies since it would serve to expand on some aspects of what I see as the Venezuelan tragedy.

I will comment, first, on the commentary by David Cabrera: What are the real incentives for Venezuelan right-wing and semi-fascist ideas?  The headline contains an archaic term (right wing) and an imprecise one (semi-fascist.... is that 50% fascist?).

A response is very disappointing for those who are waiting for concrete ideas on how to help Venezuela emerge from its most profound social and economic crisis since Ezequiel Zamora was alive and destroying the countryside. In fact, it looks as if the commentarist had essentially used my editorial as an excuse to exhibit his new-found knowledge on economic theory. He dedicates about one third of his reply to a description of neoliberalism in the US and China, mentioning Keynes, the "invisible hand," free market and so on ... all well and dandy, but mostly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

So that we are on solid ground, let me remind readers of what the Venezuelan reality looks like (percentages are approximate, as I am writing from memory, but within 10% or so):

• Poverty ... 80-85% of total population.
• Unemployment ... 22% according government ... 25% according the private sector.
• Inflation ... 35% according MVR member Rodrigo Cabezas, 45% according to the private sector.
• GDP for 2003 ... will fall between 10 and 15%, an historical record.
• Internal Debt ... has increased by a factor of six since 1998, to $12 billion.
• External debt ... stable at about $30 billion.
• Crime Rate ... second highest in Latin America. 500 murders per month.
• Quality of Governance ... next to last in Latin America, according the World Bank.
• International Competitiveness ... next to last, according the Davos Group.
• Index of Corruption ... second highest in Latin America, after Paraguay.
• United Nation's Human Development Index ... Dropped four places since 1998.
• Children in the Streets.... more numerous today than in 1998.
• 2003 Budget Deficit ... about $8 billion, new debt being sought.
• Agricultural production ... down about 10% according expert Hiram Gaviria.
• Food consumption in 2003 ... 35% lower than last year. This means hunger.
• Industrial production ... in chaos due to the government restrictions.
• Foreign private investment ... 60% lower than in 2002.
• Car sales  2003 ... 70% lower than in 2002, already considerably down from 2001.
• Currency controls ... foreign currency only available on the black market at Bs. 2,500 per US$.

These indices are just an example of the revolutionary fiasco, although they do not take into consideration the "intangible" components of the crisis, such as the hate, stress,  fear, frustration and indignation prevailing in society.

This explains why 75% of Venezuelans ... as shown by all available surveys ... reject the government today. It also illustrates why it is so important to have a plan to try to revert Venezuela back to normalcy. The experience of Chavez in the Presidency has shown us, beyond doubt, that Venezuela can not be efficiently managed by a charlatan, particularly when surrounded by inept collaborators.

Cabrera claims that "there is hardly anything new" in the plan. I ask: Why should there be "new" elements in the plan, besides those old and valid elements of reconciliation, private investment, justice for all, action over rhetoric? What should be new in a plan is the will to put it into motion. What is new about this plan is that it has been structured by a group of true democrats, in an open forum. This is a welcome change from the Chavez "plan", made as he goes along from Sunday to Sunday in "Alo Presidente." Depending on who he has been talking with, he will decide to create the vertical chicken coops, the route of the empanada, the Bank of Women or a new literacy plan staffed by Cubans, although the country has had over 92% literacy for years now ... without Cuban help.

The commentarist resents that the plan calls for military subordination to civilian authority ... something that is the norm in all developed countries of the world. He says that, then, the military will not be able to sell chickens anymore. Well, they probably will not. Frankly, military selling chickens while the Colombian guerrilla trespass our national borders with total impunity is not my idea of what an army should be.

We spend over $1 billion per year in military toys for these boys ... only good for parades three times a year. I say that this is money badly spent. More conceptually, military subordination to civilian authority is a fundamental ingredient of democracy. Countries which are not democratic ... like Cuba, Iraq and North Korea ... have had a military regime for many years. When we speak of progressive societies we term them civilized, not militarized. In a civilized society Generals do not burp on national TV.

Cabrera is also worried about the privatization of prisons ... he mentions the negative experience of  the Wackenhut Corporation in New Mexico. I am no expert on prisons, but I think that what can not continue is the present situation of our prisons. I go by the Tocuyito prison almost every day, and I am horrified by the sight of this filthy group of buildings which have 2,000 inmates originally designed for a capacity 600 . These inmates eat rats and snakes because money allotted to feed them does not reach the place.

The man responsible for this outrage is General Lucas Rincon Romero, the highest ranking officer in the Venezuelan Army and current Minister of the Interior & Justice ... the same man who asked Chavez to resign in April 2002 and obtained his resignation ... according to his report on national TV in the early hours of April 12th ... as everybody in Venezuela saw and heard.

Rincon Romero is also the same man who has been charged with illegal use of military funds, together with other generals, by no less than by the Military Comptroller.

While the commentarist is fully entitled to his views on the privatization of prisons, and he could well have some valid points in this regard, what he is not entitled to do is to say that "I happen to believe that all of these right wing and semi-fascist ideas should be looked upon carefully to discover the real incentives behind them..."

In plain English, he says that the promotion of the privatization of prisons has as its main objective making a buck or two i.e: the opposition is corrupt.

Well, this is insulting and does Cabrera no credit ... rather than predicting corruption in a future that seems a little distant, he should be protesting, like all decent Venezuelans, against the high levels of corruption present at this very moment within the revolutionary government ... a corruption which already involves many of the big fish and the small fish in the regime. His silence about the current reality contrasts with his sentencing of people he has never seen ... a selective ethical posture which is typical of the fanatical deaf.

Cabrera confesses to being all in favor of a "politically-oriented PDVSA." This is all I need to hear to calibrate his views. What he wants is what we now have ... a PDVSA in shambles, undergoing a power struggle while normal operations grow increasingly faulty, where maintenance has ceased, where exploration, research and training are words of the past. This current PDVSA is a mad house and if this is what he wants ... he can have it.

Mr. Elio Cequea's reply is much more to the point, no intellectual cellulitis here.

However, it shares many of the presuppositions which weakened Mr. Cabrera's posture. Mr. Cequea chooses to say that what the plan means by "national reconciliation" will be no more than "rapid elimination of subversive elements." I ask: why should reconciliation mean this rather than reconciliation? Mr. Cequea shows a deep distrust of the "others" which illustrate how successful the distillery of hate constructed by Chavez has been.

To almost every point of the plan, Mr. Cequea adds his own deformed vision of what he thinks the point "really" means ... economic recovery, to him, is "surrendering to the IMF." Self-financing of universities, to him, only means that no poor student can enter them (he has never heard of scholarships to the bright?). Military obedience to the civil authority only means that the army will be used to "disappear" people.

I have news for him. Today, the armed force in Venezuela is an instrument of popular repression at the service of a man, not at the service of the nation. With this attitude of distrust, Mr. Cequea, how can we solve the Venezuelan crisis by non-violent means?

• If distrust is at the bottom of this discussion, how can we ever hope to get out of this horrible mess?

You remind me of the patient who was to undergo a colonoscopy. The night before, he was put in a hospital room and, just before sleeping, he placed his glass eye in a glass of water by his side. Next morning they went to look for him and he, very nervous, drank the water and swallowed the glass eye. When the doctor inserted the instrument up the tract, the first thing he saw was the glass eye that seemed to be looking at him. Taken aback, he said to the patient: " Mister Smith. I am very sorry, but if you don't trust me, I will not be able to be your doctor."

Well, let us make an effort to be more trusting...

I refuse to join this insane tournament of hate and fear which Chavez has been very good at installing in our country. And. above all, never swallow your glass eye...

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.   You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email gustavo@vheadline.com

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, June 22, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Venezuelan media sources are speculating about the permanence of Venezuelan Episcopal Conference (CEV) president, Monsignor Baltazar Porras at the Nuncio Apostolic's residence in Caracas. 

Speaking to the media, Porras says the reason why he is staying at the Vatican Embassy is because he is recovering from a bout of pneumonia and the doctors ordered complete rest.

Dispelling rumors that he is seeking asylum, the Archbishop of Merida insists that he will be out by Monday and is not afraid of arrest for alleged civil rebellion on April 12, 2002. 

Another rumor sweeping media sources is that the government has put out an arrest warrant against Bishop of Coro, Monsignor Roberto Luckert for treason. 

Porras says he does not know where the rumors started. 

Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez brushes aside the rumors and denies that state prosecutors have requesting arrest warrants against members of the Catholic Church.  CEV general secretary Jose Luis Azuaje has confirmed that there are no arrest warrants either nationally or in Merida and wryly comments that the Church is waiting because "there could be surprises in these times." 

Movements have been detected inside conservative Church groups to heigthen tension in Church-government relations, especially after Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton Matos' unfortunate remarks about Christians a week ago. 

Venezuelan media simulators have published articles on the matter suggesting the government will clamp down on the Church. The latest is a piece entitled, "The Catholic Church: Hungry 1951-Venezuela 2003?" suggesting that Catholics should oppose a repeat performance. 

• Monsignor Porras also wrote a piece implicitly comparing events in Venezuela to Hitler's Germany.

These incidents would seem to tie in with an analysis suggesting the loony opposition is mounting another coup attempt said to revolve around early July with the military promotions.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, June 22, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva says President Hugo Chavez Frias will find a way out of Venezuela's political crisis, which has been brewing for a long time. Speaking after meeting US President George W. Bush in Washington for the third time, Lula says he fully supports the recent negotiations agreement between the Venezuelan  government and opposition ... "it's an important step forward ... Chavez Frias has enormous problems to solve but he also has the will to solve them." 

The Brazilian President points out that Brazil played an active part in the Venezuelan mediation process through its participation in the six-nation (Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Portugal, Spain and the USA) Group of Friends. 

Lula da Silva met President Chavez Frias during a meeting of the Southern Cone Economic Community (Mercosur) in Paraguay last week. 

The US media has welcomed Lula's visit has positive saying he reminds then of Latin American politicians of the 50 and 60s because of his pragmatism and charismatic leadership. It would appear that the US government is coming round to seeing Brazil as its spokesman in the region, especially given the thorny problems of civil war in Colombia, Cuba, narco-trafficking, defense of democracy and of course, Venezuela's unending political crisis. 

Some US analysts are suggesting more caution in US policy, alleging that Brazil has come of age and Lula will pursue greater independence as Brazil attempts to gain economic and political bargaining power in the region turning into an equal partner and possible rival with the USA ... Lula da Silva is backing President Chavez Frias and defending Brazil's economic openings in eastern Venezuela that will have a decisive knock-on effect in the poorly developed Northern Brazil.

<a href=www.sunspot.net>SunSpotBy A Sun Staff Writer Originally published June 22, 2003

Four hundred workers on the banks of Chesapeake Bay at Cove Point were laboring furiously in the rain last week, pouring concrete, laying fiber optics and welding steel to renovate a liquefied natural gas terminal mothballed since 1980.

There was little time to spare.

The first tanker loaded with the liquid form of natural gas, called LNG, is expected at the Calvert County terminal at the end of July. It will pull up to Cove Point's pier a mile offshore and pump millions of gallons of the frigid fuel through submerged insulated steel pipes and into four giant storage tanks on land.

The ship will be the first of several dozen LNG vessels expected to make that same trip to Southern Maryland this summer from natural gas fields around the world.

Cove Point LNG, which will be the largest operating in the country, is being resurrected as the nation grapples with rising natural gas prices and the tightest supply in a quarter century.

The supply crunch has gotten attention in Washington. This month, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned a congressional panel that rising prices and dwindling supplies could further damage the weakened economy and urged the country to expand its ability to import LNG.

"He all but named Cove Point," said Daniel Donovan, spokesman for Dominion Resources Inc., which purchased the LNG terminal in September from financially strained Williams Cos. for $217 million.

With gas prices up more than 70 percent in a year, it's no wonder that Dominion is spending another $180 million to upgrade the Cove Point terminal, build a fifth storage tank and refurbish the aging pier that seagulls had claimed as home.

LNG is profitable when natural gas prices reach $2.50 to $3.50 per million British thermal units, according to study by the Institute for Energy Law & Enterprise at the University of Houston. Prices now are well above $6 per million Btu.

"This is the furthest the plant has come," said Chris Buffalini, a control room operator who has worked at Cove Point for five years. "I'm really looking forward to the ships coming in."

A number of those who live near the terminal - about three miles from Constellation Energy Group's Calvert Cliffs nuclear plant - have been less eager about the LGN plant's revival.

Some said it would ruin one of the best fishing spots on the bay. Others worried that a spill would create a vapor cloud that would cause a horrific explosion if ignited. Still others expressed concern that the terminal could become another target for terrorists.

"A few years ago, they started talking about reopening the terminal," said James Oneyear, 64, a retired electrician who has lived in Cove Point since 1966. "There were a lot of people who were really disturbed about it. I went to all three of the meetings that they had and they just told us they were going to do it whether we wanted them to do it or not."

Others in the area said they have come to accept it.

"When you live on the bay, you also live with all the things that could happen ... floods, tornadoes, Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Plant," said Barbara Moyers, 64, a Rockville resident who has lived part time in Southern Maryland since the 1970s. "This is just another thing to add to the list. If you were in bed worrying about all the things that could transpire, you'd have to shoot yourself."

To be inspected

Company officials point out that federal regulators must approve the plant's facilities before the first ship arrives.

Once it is operational, the terminal will be monitored by a number of agencies. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which approved the reopening, will continue to inspect the site once a month. Cove Point's underground pipelines will be regulated by the federal Office of Pipeline Safety and its underwater pipes and pier monitored by the Coast Guard.

Analysts say Dominion's move, at a time when LNG imports account for 1 percent of the nation's natural gas consumption, is astute. The federal Energy Information Administration expects LNG to reach 3 percent of consumption by 2020.

"Dominion is one of the largest companies in the nation," said Shelby Tucker, an analyst with Banc of America Securities. "They do exploration of oil and gas, so they have a sense of overall demand and supply in the country. They're smart people. Acquiring Cove Point was the right move at the right time."

By the time Cove Point is fully operational, which is expected to be in August, the plant will be able to store 5 billion cubic feet of LNG, chilled to 260 below zero to convert it to liquid. Cove Point can pump out enough energy a day through three pipelines to run about 3.4 million homes.

A single ship can carry enough LNG to meet the daily energy needs of more than 10 million homes. Dominion is expecting about 60 ships a year bearing fuel from places that include Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, Algeria, Venezuela and Norway.

The company and energy analysts say there is little chance that Cove Point will fall victim to the industry conditions that cut short its use more than two decades ago.

Production in domestic gas fields won't be able to meet demand, which is expected to keep growing, especially because new electricity generating plants mostly use clean-burning natural gas as fuel, they say.

Built in the 1970s, Cove Point imported LNG from 1978 to 1980, until a pricing dispute with suppliers in Algeria shut it down.

The terminal remained dormant as natural gas prices dropped and domestic production increased, supplying 83 percent of the nation's needs. An additional 16 percent was supplied by Canada, so there was no need to import LNG.

Reopened in 1995

Then, in 1995, the original owner, Columbia Gas, reopened Cove Point to serve mainly as a storage site for energy companies in peak winter months, when natural gas prices on the spot market are higher.

Columbia never got far with its reactivation plan before selling it three years ago to Texas-based Williams, which moved ahead with plans to reopen Cove Point. In December 2001, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission gave its approval. But Williams was derailed by the turmoil racking the energy industry and sold out to Dominion, which is based in Richmond, Va.

Dominion is rushing to get ready for the first load of LNG, which will chill the pipes and tanks to prepare them for regular shipments. The utility also is preparing its operational plan, including security and emergency procedures, which must be approved by the Coast Guard before the first tanker docks.

Regardless of who owns the terminal, Oneyear said, the damage done to the Chesapeake Bay and its surroundings will be the same.

"Those ships, when they come in here, are as large as three football fields," said the retired electrician. "That's a lot of ship. They've got big propellers so there will only be a 4-foot difference between the bottom of the ship and the bottom of the bay. It's just going to churn the heck out of the bay."

LNG has had a fairly good safety record compared with those of refineries and other petrochemical plants, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. In the 40 years that LNG has been delivered across the ocean, eight marine incidents worldwide have resulted in LNG spills.

Fatalities occurred at several onshore facilities in earlier years, but industry experts say more stringent operational and safety regulations have been implemented since then.

Cove Point fatality

One of those fatalities occurred at Cove Point in 1979, when LNG leaked through an inadequately tightened LNG pump seal. The liquid vaporized, passed through 200 feet of underground electrical conduit and entered an electrical substation.

The explosion killed an operator in the building, seriously injured a second and caused about $3 million in damage.

Since then, industry analysts and experts say, the technology involved in producing, storing and processing liquid natural gas has improved greatly.

"One of the demonstrations we like to put on for people is putting out a cigarette in a thermos of LNG," Donovan said. "It's not explosive, and it's not flammable. Then we pour it out on a desk and it gradually vaporizes into the sky. I guess someone could burn that, but the chances of them getting close enough to make that happen are pretty remote."

Donovan said Dominion has upgraded Cove Point's electronic surveillance system and that security guards keep a close watch on the grounds.

A Coast Guard vessel will accompany LNG tankers up the Chesapeake, and a 200- to 500-yard security perimeter will keep other boats and ships from getting close.

"I've got mixed feelings about it," said Marvin Green, 81, who has lived in Cove Point Beach for 15 years. "I used to tell people this place is great because we've got three libraries and no traffic lights. Now I tell people the fishing is lousy because of pollution. It's too crowded now."

"But am I worried?" Green said. "At my age, I've already got one foot in the grave. I'm not all that worried about a gas plant."

Saturday, June 21, 2003 Posted: 2340 GMT (7:40 AM HKT)

CARACAS, Venezuela (CNN-Reuters) -- Venezuela's government said Saturday that it expects the economy to contract by 10.7 percent this year, a bleaker outlook than previously forecast and one of the worst in the history of the world's No. 5 oil exporter.

Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega told Reuters in a telephone interview that the government estimates a 10.7 percent slide for 2003, with a contraction in the second quarter and signs of recovery during the rest of the year.

"This is a preliminary figure, and much depends on the second quarter and ... on the execution of spending and investment and public spending," Nobrega said.

He had previously forecast an 8.9 percent contraction.

Venezuela's economy shrank by 8.9 percent last year and nearly 30 percent in the first quarter of this year after a two-month opposition strike against President Hugo Chavez severely disrupted vital oil output and shipments.

Most analysts paint a more pessimistic picture as conflict over the government of populist Chavez is expected to continue to undermine the economy. The International Monetary Fund forecast Venezuela will post a 17 percent economic contraction this year.

The government has said currency curbs and price controls on basic goods will not be lifted soon. Private business leaders say the controls are sinking the economy deeper into recession by limiting access to dollars needed for imports and external debt payments.