<a href=www.timesofoman.com>Times of Oman

RIYADH — Iraq’s return to the oil market is not expected to alter Opec’s short-term policies on output and price, but the producers’ cartel, which meets in the Gulf this week, should be ready for “painful” decisions in coming years, economists warned yesterday.

Oil ministers of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will discuss at their June 11 meeting in Doha, Qatar, the main issue of reallocating output quotas once Iraq increases exports to effective levels.

“Opec will not cut its output levels now, because the price is high. They will mostly focus on discussing quota levels when Iraq returns,” Abdulwahab Abu-Dahesh, senior economist at Riyad Bank, said.

“Iraq is not expected to return to its pre-1990 export levels before a couple of years ... A number of technical problems must be overcome. That too requires huge investments,” Abu-Dahesh said.

Oil prices inched upwards on Friday as the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico met in Madrid and pledged to cooperate with other producers in ensuring a fair price for the crude to stabilise the world market.

The price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for July delivery rose 34 cents to $27.78 per barrel.

New York’s light sweet crude July contract was up 31 cents to $31.05 in early trading.

The three countries stressed the need to “continue monitoring developments in the market during the coming few months in a bid to avoid factors that may destabilise it.”

The Opec meeting on June 11 will assess the state of the oil market, especially in light of the expected resumption of Iraqi production and the return of Venezuela and Nigeria to their normal production levels.

Regular Iraqi oil exports are not expected to restart until early July at the earliest, and the volume of such exports is unknown due to widespread looting and telecommunications problems.

The acting head of Iraq’s Oil Ministry, Thamir Ghadhban, said last month that he expected output to reach 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of June and three million bpd by the end of the year.

But oil expert Abdullah bin Ali Ibrahim, of the Dammam-based Arab Petroleum Investments Corp., believes no major change will happen before one to two years.

“In the short-term of one to two years, nothing significant will happen. But in the mid-term, changes are bound to take place. Everything depends on Iraq’s volumes of production and export ... and size of investments,” Ibrahim said.

The future of production quotas and protection of Opec’s $22-28 price band appears to increasingly depend on Iraq’s decision to continue membership with the 11-member cartel or to opt out.

Baghdad has not been subject to a quota since July 1990 when output was set at 3.14 million bpd, the same as Iran and about 14 per cent of Opec’s production ceiling.

“The possibility of Iraq’s not returning to Opec is very remote. It is in Iraq’s interest to remain in the cartel because that would give it a privileged status to produce more and it can help maintain fair prices,” Abu-Dahesh said.

“Iraq needs long term finance for reconstruction and thus wants to see fair oil prices continue. I believe Baghdad has no option but to remain within Opec. This also applies to US oil firms expected to invest in Iraq,” he said. Iraq has not been invited to attend the Doha meeting because the occupation authorities have not yet installed a national government in Baghdad.

But Ibrahim believes that if Iraq is to remain with Opec, cartel members, especially Saudi Arabia, are required to take painful decisions by cutting their output quotas. — AFP

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, June 08, 2003 By: Roy S. Carson (OPVPR: Official Paid Version, Please Reply)

The anti-Chavez Venezuelan Community Abroad (VCA) grouping has issued a press release ahead of an Organization of American States (OAS) assembly in Santiago de Chile, Monday,  claiming concern that the Venezuelan government will not comply with the Recall Referendum enshrined in the Bolivarian Constitution ... "the Venezuelan Community Abroad requests that the Group of Friends of Venezuela and international observers closely monitor the Venezuelan political process during until the country’s crisis is resolved."

Houston-based VCA contact person Cristal Montanez writes that "after seven months of negotiations between representatives of the opposition and the government, a 19-point Agreement was signed. The historical accord embodies the hopes of the majority of the Venezuelan people who want to participate in referendum vote to revoke the mandate of the autocratic government of Hugo Chavez, after August 19 of this current year."

Claiming that the Venezuelan opposition today comprises a majority of the country's population, Montanez continues that it "feels the need to communicate to the international community their deep mistrust of the agreement, since it sets no date for the recall referendum and is not binding. Since President Chavez was elected in 1998, he has shown a tendency to disregard agreements, laws, and even our constitution. We are concerned that he will also disregard the terms of this new accord."

VCA then admits that the agreement it mistrusts "mimics Article 72 of the Venezuelan Bolivarian Constitution, which states that the mandate of an elected official can be revoked after the midterm of his period."  The proceeds to state that "during the past few weeks, the government has taken an aggressively repressive stance against the opposition, refusing dollars to the private sector, and creating new laws that threaten our fundamental freedom of expression and our right to protest. In addition, it is arming urban militias called Bolivarian Circles, who (whose?) role is to intimidate and suppress the protest actions of the opposition, violating all the rules and regulations contemplated in the International Human Rights code."  In a complimentary addition to the slugfest Montanez adds that "The Bolivarian Circles are trained by Cuban military officers who are active in the country."

In a press release that appears honed to misinform North American newspapers, radio and television broadcasters, the opposition VCA demands that "international observers are urgently required to monitor the creation of the new National Electoral College (CNE) ... a prerequisite for the referendum, and the verification of signatures ... so that the recall referendum doesn’t become yet another unfulfilled promise. Without the assistance of the "Group of Friends" of Venezuela, the Organization of American States, the Carter Center and the PNUD, we (VCA) are concerned that the recall referendum will never materialize."

So far so good in the preemptive propaganda attack from Houston-base; the spin-doctors are obviously concerned that the Chavez Frias government will not abide by the 1999 Constitution ... totally forgetting (or conveniently laying aside) the fact that it was they, the opposition, who enacted the April 11 coup d'etat which saw the installation of Dictator-for-a-Day Pedro Carmona Estanga, who promptly dissolved the Constitution, the Congress and the Courts...

But let's continue:  VCA says it is imperative that these international organizations acknowledge the obstacle included in the Bolivarian Constitution, which states that if the people do not succeed in recalling the President’s mandate before he enters the last two years of his term, then there are no new elections, and the Vice President becomes President, completing the remaining portion of the term. That would mean that even if President Chavez’s mandate is recalled, the Vice President might still become President until 2006 (articles 71, 72, 231 and 233 of the Venezuelan Bolivarian Constitution).

Just a question:  Is there a 1999 Constitution or isn't there?  Was it not democratically authored by a democratically-elected National Constituent Assembly?  Was it not approved by a majority of Venezuelans in a December 15, 1999 National referendum?  Were not democratic elections duly held in accordance with that Constitution which returned the current government to power, in full compliance with all its democratically-arrived-at Articles?

NOW: In obvious rejection of the judicial process as well, VCA says that an February 3, 2003, the Venezuelan Supreme Court (TSJ) decided that the mid-term of President Chavez’s period is August 19, 2003.

Here comes the switch ... "By delaying the referendum until 2004, he (President Chavez) can then pressure the Supreme Court to revisit their decision concerning the Presidential term, and declare in a new ruling that their earlier decision was not in keeping with the Constitution, which clearly states that the Presidential term begins in January."

Come in Houston ... we have a slight problem with your speculation!

PR Cristal Montanez goes off into an extraterrestrial trajectory to conclude that the Supreme Court could declare that his term began in January of 2000 ... "not only would such a decision by the TSJ cause confusion about the referendum date, but it would also mean that if Chavez is still in office on January 1st, 2004, then there is not way to revoke President Chavez’s mandate before 2006."

Hey, come on Cristal and friends ... stop searching the skies for visitors from other planets, you're already spaced out ... the Constitution clearly states that a recall referendum's process begins after August 19 ... take August 20 as a starting-gate.  The opposition needs to gather its wits about it before that date to get together a series of Constitutionally determined prerequisites ... a number of supervised and authenticated signatures from registered voters to request a revocatory referendum; approval of such a referendum petition by the National Assembly (AN) and then due process by which to call a proper YES/NO vote on Chavez or whomsoever else will be subject to revocatory procedures.

Yes, we know you want a revocatory referendum with only one end result!

OAS General Secretary Cesar Gaviria has somewhat optimistically said that an eventual revocatory referendum will get off the ground sometime in November ... but looking realistically at Venezuela as we know it, yes, the date will probably be projected into December or perhaps even further into the early months of 2004.

But to extrapolate the lethargy of Venezuela's political process into a conspiracy theory of black helicopter proportions to "demonstrate" the rabid opposition's pet theory of impending Doom & Gloom is taking things a bit too far, don't you think?

...and you have to remember who it was who attempted to impose a dictatorship on April 12, 2002 ... and who moved immediately to dissolve the Constitution to which (rightfully) the VCA lays such fond acclaim, the democratically-elected Congress and the Courts!

We've seen clear and present evidence that it is elements within the Venezuelan opposition that wants to overthrow the Constitution ... we've seen no substantiation of allegations that the same qualifications apply to the Chavez Frias government...

Instead of screeching cat gut to orchestrate your violin serenade to the foreign media, Cristal, you should take pause for introspection and, as said "Come in Houston, we have a problem..."

Venezuelan Community Abroad (VCA): Cristal Montanez may be contacted at email: CJoslin@aol.com or telephone number +1-713-823-3621

Sun June 8, 2003 11:47 AM ET By Richard Mably and Jonathan Leff

DOHA, Qatar (<a href=reuters.com>Reuters) - OPEC this week is set to pressure independent exporters to back the cartel's next supply cut to prevent the resumption of Iraqi exports undercutting oil prices. OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah made clear Sunday that major non-aligned producers Mexico, Russia and Norway would be called on to help the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries defend its $25 a barrel price target.

"Yes. We require their support ... I feel we have their support," Attiyah, also oil minister of Qatar, told reporters in Doha ahead of Wednesday's meeting.

With oil prices at the top end of the group's $22-$28 preferred price range, ministers have said there is no need for any immediate cut from its 25.4 million barrel a day output limit.

But the cartel is preparing the ground should it need to reduce supply later this year by making sure non-OPEC countries are aware it requires their cooperation.

OPEC powers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela met with Mexico in Madrid Friday to discuss the reemergence of Iraq on the world market and Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez travels to Norway Monday.

Recovering from the U.S.-led war, Baghdad is preparing to resume international sales in about a week's time, but shipments are expected to stay well below pre-war levels for several months.

With U.S. crude now over $30 a barrel, alarm bells are ringing in Washington as summer gasoline demand puts upward pressure on import prices.

"We won't just cut for the sake of cutting," Attiyah said.

"I don't want to see my consumers angry, I believe the customer is always right but we have to be careful about the balance between demand and supply."

OPEC has not needed to reduce production limits since late 2001, when it slashed supplies on condition that independent producers contribute. They resisted until prices slumped and then fell into line.

Russia, Mexico, Syria, Oman, Egypt and Angola among non-OPEC will be represented officially in Doha, for the first time at an extraordinary OPEC meeting.

The main subject of oil market debate, Iraq, will not send a delegation, an issue which has rankled Iraqi officials.

Attiyah acknowledged there had been no contact between OPEC headquarters and Baghdad since the U.S. occupation, but urged Iraq to get in touch.

"I did not receive any request from Iraq, but personally I'd be happy to talk to them," he said, adding he hoped Baghdad would make OPEC's next scheduled meeting in September.

Sun June 8, 2003 10:38 AM ET By Jonathan Wright

WASHINGTON (<a href=reuters.com>Reuters) - Secretary of State Colin Powell left for Chile on Sunday to meet his Latin American colleagues as a group for the first time since disagreements over the U.S. invasion of Iraq early this year.

Most Latin American countries, mindful of U.S. intervention in their region, opposed the invasion, but welcome the attention implied by Powell's attendance at the annual assembly of the Organization of American States in Santiago.

Powell will also travel to neighboring Argentina on Tuesday to meet newly elected President Nestor Kirchner, symbolically endorsing his campaign to rid the country of cronyism and corruption after economic and political turmoil.

The Bush administration came to office with promises to pay more attention to its southern neighbors, but Latin Americans, especially Mexicans, feel they have slipped down its list of priorities because of Washington's focus on Iraq, Afghanistan and President Bush's "global war on terrorism."

The two Latin American U.N. Security Council members, Chile and Mexico, which did not support the U.S. quest for an explicit endorsement of its Iraq invasion, have important economic reasons for avoiding confrontation with the world's most powerful nation.

A senior State Department official said last week that the United States and opponents of the Iraq war had agreed to disagree.

"We are not dwelling on that (Iraq). We have a very full, constructive agenda on other issues," he said.

"You are seeing an intensified focus by the United States on the region and I think that will be a welcome development for most of our friends in the Americas," added the official, who asked not to be named.

CUBA OFF AGENDA

The annual assembly brings together the foreign ministers or other representatives of 34 countries in the Americas, and the theme this year is good governance in the region.

The OAS has kept off the agenda the question of human rights in Cuba, which has cracked down on dissidents this year, because many members say Cuba cannot defend itself at the OAS. Cuba has been excluded from OAS deliberations since 1962.

The senior U.S. official said the United States expected the meeting to release a declaration reaffirming member states' commitment to good governance, including increased efficiency, probity and transparency in public administration.

"We'll call for the elimination of social exclusion and the promotion of sound public policies that promote equal opportunity, education, health, full employment and the eradication of poverty and malnutrition," he added.

The meeting will also keep up diplomatic pressure on Haiti's government to move toward democratic elections.

Venezuela, one of the Latin American countries least favorable to the Bush administration, plans to circulate a document condemning the "powerful multinational oligarchies" it says dominate the Venezuelan media.

Many dominant media organizations in Venezuela were sympathetic to the unsuccessful campaign early this year to remove populist President Hugo Chavez from office.

But the U.S. official said he doubted Venezuela could muster much support.

"By and large, I think most people recognize that an unfettered press is absolutely essential to a democratic system," he said.

On Monday afternoon, the ministers will prepare for a special interim Summit of the Americas expected in Mexico late this year, between the Quebec summit of 2001 and the next regular summit in Argentina in 2005.

GREGORY WILPERT

What has lain behind the massive social conflicts that have unfurled round the Chávez regime? The spurious and real reasons for the rampage of Venezuelan managers, media and middle class against the country’s elected President. Oil, land and urban rights as the stakes in a social war of colour and class.

Few contemporary political upheavals have been as dramatic as the events that have convulsed Venezuela in the past five years. In 1998, former paratroop colonel Hugo Chávez was elected President by a landslide majority, on a platform calling for a fundamental reconstruction of the whole political framework of the country. Within two years, he successfully pushed through an ambitious new Constitution, and was reelected President for six more years, equipped with an even larger majority—some 60 per cent of the vote—and a Congress dominated by his supporters. By the autumn of 2000, the country seemed to be at his feet. [1] Eighteen months later, he faced a general strike and massive street demonstrations against his rule, swiftly followed by a military coup that deposed and imprisoned him. Despite being restored to power by popular counter-demonstrations and a revolt against his ouster originating within the armed forces themselves, Chávez was under siege again in less than a year.

This time he confronted the largest and longest employer/trade-union confederation strike in Latin American history, mobilizing virtually the entire mass media and a galvanized middle class that proved capable of remarkable—even sacrificial—levels of militant collective action, backed by a wide spectrum of senior commanders. Lasting from 2 December 2002 to 2 February 2003, this vast battering-ram paralysed Venezuela’s oil industry, its key economic sector, for seven weeks, leading to widespread expectations of the final demise of Chávez’s meteoric Presidency. But once again his popular and military support held firm, and after inflicting savage blows to the state’s finances, the strike collapsed. The opposition fronde has by no means given up its aim of driving Chávez from office, but for the moment he sits more securely in the Miraflores Palace than for many months.

Read the complete article. New Left Review 21, May-June 2003