Reuters, 12.30.02, 2:24 PM ET By Hugh Bronstein

NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Emerging market sovereign bond trading ground to an early close on Monday as investors worried about what 2003 might bring Venezuela, where a month-old strike has nearly shut down the economy.

Trading was light ahead of the new year -- one trader commented that he did not even have his computer screens turned on -- even as the political turmoil in Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporting nation, deepened.

"Venezuelan bonds are vulnerable to more weakening because the situation in the country is deteriorating," said Lawrence Krohn, head of Latin American sovereign research at ING Financial Markets.

The opposition threatened on Monday to add more civil disobedience and a tax boycott to a work stoppage that has blocked oil exports but so far failed to make President Hugo Chavez resign.

The leftist leader has thumbed his nose at massive marches, one of which brought a million demonstrators onto the streets of Caracas.

"There's no chance of a near-term resolution," Krohn said. "Chavez is getting angrier and angrier and the people of Venezuela are getting poorer and poorer."

Emerging market bond spreads widened by 10 basis points to 783 over U.S. Treasuries, according to JP Morgan's Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus. Venezuela's portion of the index widened 16 basis points to 1,120.

Wider spreads reflect the perception of increased risk as measured against safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds.

The opposition demands immediate elections and has refused Chavez's offer of a referendum on his rule in August, which he says is the earliest date allowed by the constitution.

Chavez was elected in 1998 after a campaign in which he vowed to wrest control from the country's corrupt elite and enact reforms to help the poor. But opposition has grown amid charges the president wants to establish a Cuban-style authoritarian state. Many investors say Chavez, notorious on Wall Street for his failed economic policies and anti-capitalist rhetoric, is probably on the way out and that Venezuelan bonds are poised to rally, as happened in April following a short-lived coup against Chavez. But investors are fooling themselves if they assume Venezuela will undergo an instant economic renaissance when and if Chavez is pressured out of office, Krohn said.

"It is not as if there is some very competent leader who is poised to take over. The opposition has nobody like that," he said. Venezuelan debt has rewarded holders with total returns of 18.79 percent in 2002, compared with the 14.16 percent rise in the overall market, according to the EMBI-Plus. But as the strike eats into the country's oil and Christmas season tax revenues, Venezuelan total returns have dropped 3.29 percent so far in December.

BRAZIL AWAITS LULA'S INAUGURATION The market will watch for any signals on Brazil's future economic policies from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who takes office on Wednesday.

The one-time radical union boss turned his rhetoric toward the political center to win October's election. Now investors want proof that Lula will properly manage Latin America's biggest economy. Brazil's central bank forecast 2.8 percent growth in gross domestic product in 2003, up from an estimated 1.6 percent this year.

     WASHINGTON, Dec. 30 (UPI) -- Capital Comment -- Daily news notes, political rumors and important events that shape politics and public policy in Washington and the world from United Press International.            Graham cracker...      Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., says he might run for president in 2004. If he does run he starts off as a dark horse even though Florida, now with 27 electoral votes, is a political powerhouse. With a reputation as a moderate Democrat, Graham has spent almost his entire adult life in politics, serving in the state legislature and as governor for eight years before joining the senate in 1986. A late entry into the field of prospective candidates Graham would start off well behind the nominal frontrunners, Sens. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., and Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn.

     If Graham does run in 2004 then he would likely have to surrender his seat in the U.S. Senate. He has to run for re-election in 2004 and Florida law does not permit a two-track campaign. The pressure will be on for him to choose his race and to choose it early if the Democrats hope to hold on to the seat -- something many analysts say would be difficult in light of the way Florida has been trending Republican for the last ten years.

     A natural candidate for the vice-presidential slot, Graham may be taking about a presidential bid as a graceful way to ease himself out of the senate rather than retire outright.

     -0-      Hard time...      In one of his final acts as Michigan's chief executive, outgoing Republican Gov. John Engler has signed several pieces of legislation repealing the state's mandatory minimum drug sentences. Laura Sager, executive director of Families Against Mandatory Minimums, a special interest group leading the fight for repeal, praised the move, saying it brought " a quarter-century of failed sentencing policy to a close."

     "Harsh mandatory minimums, originally intended to target drug 'king pins'warehoused many nonviolent, low-level drug offenders at a very high cost to taxpayers. Now judges can use their discretion under sentencing guidelines to more closely fit the punishment to the crime and the offender," Sager said.

     Engler's signature on Michigan Public Acts 665, 666 and 670 of 2002 eliminated most of what opponents called "Draconian mandatory minimum sentences" in favor of judicial discretion in sentencing based on a range of factors in each case, rather than solely drug weight.

     -0-      Out...      Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., who had been considered the front-runner in the race for the 2004 GOP nomination for U.S. Senate has announced he will not make the race. His withdrawal leaves the field wide open -- with former U.S. Rep. Tommy Hartnett, former state Attorney General Charlie Condon and current U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint most often mentioned as potential challengers to Democrat Sen. Ernest 'Fritz' Hollings, who is finally the state's senior senator after 36 years.

     -0-      Flying down to Rio...      On Monday the White House announced the designation of four people who will serve as representatives of President George W. Bush at the Jan. 1, 2003 inauguration of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the new president of the Federative Republic of Brazil.

     The delegation will be led by Ambassador Robert Zoellick, the United States Trade Representative, and will also include U.S. Ambassador to Brazil, Donna Hrinak, U.S. Sen. Michael B. Enzi, R-Wyo., and John Maisto, special assistant to the president and senior director for western hemisphere affairs on the staff of the National Security Council.

     -0-      Poll watch...      A FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 344 Democrats across the country has New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of the list of preferred presidential nominees for 2004. Though Clinton has said repeatedly through aides that she would not be a candidate, she nevertheless got the support of 21 percent of the survey's respondents. The next candidate on the list, at 18 percent, is Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, the party's vice-presidential nominee in 2000.

     Rounding out the top tier are Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., at 16 percent, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., at 6 percent, and U.S. rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., at 5 percent. Also winning votes were Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, and the Rev. Al Sharpton while 'Not sure' was the choice of 20 percent of participants.

     -0-      UPI's Capital Comment will not be published on Dec. 31, 2002 or Jan. 1, 2003. Happy and safe New Year to all our readers.

• Various Latin American presidents confirm attendance www.granma.cu

BRASILIA.- VARIOUS heads of state have confirmed their presence at the January 1 investiture of Luiz Inacio da Silva as president of Brazil, including five from South America (at the close of this edition). The information was given by the Brazilian Foreign Ministry and published by AFP.

The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already confirmed the attendance of Presidents Eduardo Duhalde, Argentina; Jorge Batlle, Uruguay; Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada, Bolivia; Alejandro Toledo, Peru; and Jorge Sampaio, Portugal.

A diplomatic source states that despite his country’s political crisis, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez has guaranteed that he will be in Brasilia on the first day of the New Year.

Other presidents expected in Brazil are Goran Persson, Sweden; Said Nuzio D’Angieri, Belize; and Samuel Hinds, Guyana. Prince Felipe of Bourbon will represent Spain.

Lula and his Workers Party tried to change the investiture date so that more foreign heads of state could attend along with other governors-elect. But parliament would not accept that the date be changed to January 6, one day after provincial governors take their seats.

Despite the fact that the date is not favorable for the authorities remaining in the capital, the expectation of PT leaders is that more than 150,000 people from all the Brazilian states will attend the ceremony. Fernando Henrique Cardoso will hand over his position to left-wing president-elect Lula, who is to govern Brazil 113 years after the Proclamation of the Republic (November 15, 1889).

Monday, December 30, 2002 By BARRY RENFREW Associated Press Writer

LONDON -- For most of the world, 2002 was a gloomy, tense year as nations struggled with slumping economies while watching nervously for the twin threats of terrorist attacks and war with Iraq.

From Europe to the Middle East and Asia, many hoped the United States would not attack Iraq, but resigned themselves to the possibility. Only Britain and a few allies gave strong support to Washington's tough stance on Iraq.

The world mourned the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, convinced more would come. Terrorism struck heavily in Russia, Kenya and Indonesia.

After the roaring 1990s, economies were in the doldrums as stock markets slumped, business faltered and banks struggled with bad debt. Hopes at the start of the year of recovery proved brief and fear of recession intensified by fall.

The year in Europe was a search for expansion and the healing of old divisions. NATO invited seven of its former Communist opponents to join as the scars of the Cold War healed. The 15-nation European Union moved to add 10 more.

European domestic politics were less harmonious. The far right appeared to be making unprecedented gains as Europeans reacted fearfully to a flood of illegal immigrants.

Jean-Marie Le Pen stunned the world by winning a place in the runoff of the French presidential election, even though he was then thrashed by incumbent Jacques Chirac. Holland suffered its first political assassination when a rising star of the anti-immigration camp, Pym Fortuyn, was gunned down. By year's end, the far right appeared on the run, as Austria's far-right Freedom Party of Joerg Haider suffered a major defeat and Fortuyn's party, which had done well in elections, plunged into disarray.

In Germany, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder narrowly won re-election, only to see his tenuous popularity crumble as the continent's largest economy teetered. German ties with Washington nose-dived after Berlin stridently opposed war with Iraq.

The terror Europeans feared all year struck in Moscow in October when a theater siege by Chechen rebels ended in a raid by special forces that left at least 129 hostages dead.

In Asia, India and Pakistan continued their nuclear-tipped standoff, exacerbated by the bleeding sore of the disputed territory of Kashmir. North Korea revealed it had nuclear weapons. Afghanistan, free of the Taliban after a U.S.-led campaign, struggled to escape the clutches of rival war lords.

Terrorism hit Asia when a bomb wrecked a night club in the Indonesian resort of Bali in October, killing nearly 200 people, mainly young Western tourists.

The United States continued its war on terrorism, claiming to have made important arrests. It also pressed the hunt for Osama bin Laden. But was the al-Qaida leader blamed for the Sept. 11 attacks still alive in 2002? U.S. experts concluded from a taped speech attributed to him that he was. A Swiss research institute said the tape was inconclusive.

China experienced its first orderly regime change since the communist revolution of 1949 when Hu Jintao replaced Jiang Zemin as Communist Party general secretary in November. It was part of a long-planned handover of power to a younger generation.

While China's economy continued to grow, much of Asia struggled with a 5-year-old slump. Japan's woes showed little sign of abating, even under its new, reformist prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi.

It was a year of crisis and stalemate in the Middle East. Israel's battle with the Palestinians deepened with a cycle of suicide bombings and Israeli military sweeps. Israel headed into another critical election pitting a hawk, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, against a dovish challenger, Amram Mitzna, while some younger Palestinian leaders for the first time questioned the wisdom of continuing an uprising more than two years old.

The second half of the year was dominated by fears of a war with Iraq. Arab governments feared it would destabilize the entire region. Anti-U.S. sentiment bubbled in the streets of Arab cities.

"In general, 2002 was not a good year for the Arab world," said Abdel Maneim Said, head of the Al-Ahram think tank in Cairo, Egypt.

"I believe the crisis with Iraq created a kind of depressing environment in the region."

In Latin America, Brazil, the region's powerhouse, took a historic step away from centrist rule as leftist Luiz Inacio Lula was elected president. Economic instability, or the threat of it, hung over many nations as Argentina buckled under massive debt.

"There is no clear solution to this. No one quite sees to know how to restore growth and vibrancy in these countries," said Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a private research group.

Alvaro Uribe became president of Colombia with a promise to defeat leftist FARC guerrillas and drug barons. Maverick President Hugo Chavez clung to power in Venezuela after being briefly toppled in April.

In Africa, the AIDS epidemic continued its merciless ravages, and drought, floods and bad government raised anew the threat of famine. Ivory Coast, once held up as a model, faced civil war.

and other conflicts sputtered on unresolved.

And yet, the world's poorest continent saw signs of hope.

Wars in Congo, Angola, Somalia and Somalia died down as belligerents turned to the negotiating table. The African Union, a new grouping of 53 nations, promised an era of peace and prosperity.

"We are starting a new chapter in the history of our continent," South African President Thabo Mbeki said at its launch.

Venezuelian troops guard petrol supplies

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Venezuela's opposition threatened on Monday to add a tax revolt to a strike that has blocked oil exports and jolted world energy markets but so far failed to make President Hugo Chavez resign.

The leftist leader has thumbed his nose at massive marches, one of which brought a million demonstrators onto the streets of Caracas, and at a 29-day-old strike that has closed down shipments from the world's fifth-largest oil exporting nation.

"We're bashing up against a wall," one of the protest leaders, Carlos Fernandez, president of Venezuela's main business chamber, Fedecameras, said.

The opposition demands immediate elections and has refused Chavez's offer of a referendum on his rule in August, saying that if it waits that long he will wreck the country. Chavez says under the constitution August is the earliest date an election may be held to assess popular support for his rule.

"Today we are taking the road of legitimate civil disobedience," said another strike leader, union boss Carlos Ortega. "We will refuse to pay taxes to a regime which renders no accounts and squanders the money of the people."

The opposition could also call an assembly to rewrite the constitution, Fernandez said, adding that the law allows for such a move if it is clearly shown to be the will of the people.

Tax evasion is rife in Venezuela at the best of times.

Chavez, a former paratrooper who was jailed after a botched coup in 1992 but was elected in 1998, has fought hard against the strike, firing executives from state oil giant PDVSA and ordering troops onto halted oil tankers.

In a major role-reversal for the oil-rich nation, he has imported some gasoline to ease lines hundreds of cars long at filling stations. The government said that oil output would climb back to a third of normal next week, but PDVSA rebels said efforts to kick-start petroleum production were failing.

The squeeze on Venezuelan exports, which normally provide 13% of U.S. oil imports, have spooked world energy markets already fretting about a possible war in Iraq. US crude futures jumped to a two-year high early on Monday before sliding sharply to US$31.45 a barrel as the OPEC cartel indicated its readiness to come to consumers' rescue by boosting output.

The opposition, backed by business and unions but attracting support from most Venezuelans, accuses Chavez of authoritarianism, corruption and economic incompetence in what they say is a quest to establish a Cuban-style dictatorship.

Chavez condemns as "fascists" his opponents, who also backed a failed coup against him in April. His class war rhetoric and lengthy speeches that ramble from references to his grandmother to threats against his enemies make Venezuela's educated elite apoplectic.

The president, whose term is due to run until 2007, has seen his popularity plunge, even among his core constituency, Venezuela's poor majority. But, with about 30% support, he is more popular than any individual opposition figure.

Meanwhile, the country's economy is suffocating without petroleum, which normally provides 80 percent of exports and 50% of government revenues.

Markets could panic

While Chavez points to US$15 billion in Central Bank reserves to allow him to withstand the strike, analysts say the economy, already in deep recession, could buckle if world financial markets panic about Venezuela in the new year.

Caracas-based political analyst Janet Kelly said she has hoped an agreement would be reached before economic pressures explode. But she said personal animosity between Chavez and the strike leaders was a barrier.

"Chavez is crazy, but like a fox. I wouldn't underestimate him. A critical rule of negotiation is never reveal that you're willing to give in tomorrow," she said.

"The opposition has equal problems, because if they really bring the country to a total crisis, of economic isolation, there is a point at which the country turns against them."

The opposition still holds cards it has yet to play, such as a march on the presidential palace in the Chavez stronghold of central Caracas. Many fear this could lead to violence, remembering the 19 deaths during a similar march before last April's coup.

Strike leaders are also organizing a nonbinding referendum in early February, although Chavez says he will pay no attention to the result even if 90% vote against him.

While holding firm around its petroleum core, the strike was fraying around the edges, with many smaller companies and restaurants opening their doors.

Several hundred thousand opposition supporters marched in Caracas on Sunday, but the protest was a fraction of the size of a million-strong demonstration a week earlier.

Talks between the opposition and the government, brokered by the Organization of American States, have made little progress. In public, communication between the two sides is largely limited to threats and insults.

"Chavez treats this like a war. He's a soldier and soldiers think of war as victory or defeat. If he were a democrat, which he isn't, he'd be giving some," said Fernandez.