www.vheadline.com Posted: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 6:46:13 PM By: David Coleman

Opposition spinmeisters are claiming a PR coup d'etat in claims that four million signatures have been collected, demanding the immediate resignation of President Hugo Chavez Frias.  Although the signature campaign, called "El Firmazo" ... was conducted under highly-irregular circumstances, Sunday, and must still to be counted and verified against the official voters' register, the anti-Chavez opposition is attempting to save face as hundreds of thousands of workers returned to their jobs today after a 2-month lockout which saw them deprived of their wages over the critical Christmas/New Year period.

Organizers said the 'El Firmazo' was to underscore the opposition's contention that Venezuela should press for a Constitutional Amendment to shorten Chavez' mandate and allow early elections ... but even they had to admit that arrangements were makeshift with Chavez supporters harassed away from roughly set-up voting booths centered mainly in opposition strongholds with accompanying fanfare.

A month's scheduled delay before there can be any clarity as to the voting tally in Sunday's pseudo-referendum, has not deterred the opposition from declaring early projections while an election's board still has to be appointed to retroactively supervise Sunday's event and even that faces legal challenges in the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) and discussion in the National Assembly (AN).

Meanwhile the Organization of American States (OAS) is looking on askance as it continues an apparently futile attempt to reach an electoral settlement with the 6-nation "Group of Friends" from Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States urging all parties to at least talk to one another.

With massive damage already caused to the nation's petroleum industry through sabotage and walk-outs, rebel Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) ex-employees say they will continue their stoppage as international economists predict a 10-20% GDP contraction this year on top of about 50% inflation and an inevitable increase in unemployment.

PDVSA president, former OPEC General Secretary Ali Rodriguez Araque says that oil production has already been increased to 1.5 million barrels a day and that it will be close to normal 3.2 million per day by the end of February.  At the same time 5,600 ex-PDVSA rebels say oil output is cut to 1 million bpd and there isn't a ghost's chance of lifting production above 1.5 million.

world.scmp.com Tuesday, February 4, 2003

Opponents say 3.7 million have signed a petition for the president's term to be cut

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Caracas

   The Venezuelan opposition has officially declared an end to a 63-day general strike that has crippled the economy, but said a poll of voters' desire to see President Hugo Chavez's mandate cut had been an overwhelming success.

The petition is aimed at allowing opponents of the president to voice opinions about possible options for cutting short his term, which is scheduled to last until 2006.

Although the strike is formally ended, it will continue in the oil sector, according to opposition leaders, who say the struggle against the Chavez government is entering a new phase.

"The Democratic Co-ordinating Committee announced that tonight we are entering a long-expected and more trying new phase in our struggle," opposition spokesman Timoteo Zambrano said on Sunday night.

He said although the strike was ending, the protesters intended to stand by thousands of employees of Petroleos de Venezuela, the state-run oil company, who have been dismissed by the government. "Our struggle will now assume new forms, and we will pursue our goals at the negotiation table," Mr Zambrano said.

The strike has caused Venezuela billions of dollars in losses, largely because it slashed oil shipments from the world's fifth largest oil exporter.

Before the strike the oil sector produced 2.8 million barrels a day.

Mr Chavez said on Sunday that production had reached 1.8 million barrels a day and that the world's largest refinery, in Amuey, had come back on line. Oil prices fell in early London trading yesterday on news of an end to the general strike.

The price of reference Brent North Sea crude oil for March delivery dropped to US$30.77 (HK$240) at the close of trading on Friday. In New York, benchmark light sweet crude March-dated futures lost 34 US cents on Friday to US$33.51.

The Organisation of American States and former US president Jimmy Carter, meanwhile, have tried to bring the government and opposition to the negotiating table.

But clashes between Chavez supporters and police left at least five people injured as opponents queued to sign the non-binding petition aimed at cutting short his term. The opposition had garnered more than 3.7 million signatures, comfortably above expectations, leaders said.

A mid-term recall for Mr Chavez could come as early as August 19, and it is the only vote he has said repeatedly that he will accept if it is requested at the polls.

sg.biz.yahoo.com Tuesday February 4, 3:38 AM (MORE) Dow Jones Newswires 02-03-03 1422ET

Venezuela Jan Oil Exports At 406,00 Billion/D - Ex-PdVSA Staff -2

CARACAS -(Dow Jones)- Venezuela's crude oil output has risen to 1.22 million barrels per day (b/d) Monday, compared with around 1.10 million b/d over the weekend, dissident staff of state-owned oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela (E.PVZ) said in their daily report.

The biggest share of the production is in the eastern part of the country where 852,000 b/d is being produced. Another 200,000 b/d on top of the current 852,000 b/d could be produced in the east in the coming weeks, dissident PdVSA staff have said.

Production in the west stood at 280,000 b/d, while in the southern region 90,000 b/d were being produced, down from 92,000 the previous week.

According to dissident staff, the average of January oil exports stood at only 406,00 b/d of which 50,000 b/d was shipped to Cuba. Venezuela has a deal with Cuba under which it delivers crude and products under preferential financial terms. Various industry sources said Monday current oil exports stand at around 500,000 (b/d) while it puts away another 300,000 b/d at several storage facilities in the Caribbean.

Estimates about Venezuela's oil production remain all over the charts:

Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez was quoted as saying in a newspaper interview over the weekend that exports stood at around 550,000 b/d. On Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said production was at 1.78 million b/d and that he expected production to exceed 2 million b/d this week when four extra-heavy crude projects in the Orinoco belt are set to being operating.

Venezuela is in its tenth week of a nationwide strike that has hampered oil production and exports. The strike is aimed at forcing President Hugo Chavez to resign. Chavez has refused to step down and has vowed to revamp PdVSA.

Refining activities remained mostly unchanged. One of the crude units of the El Palito refinery, which has a capacity of 120,000 b/d, is producing around 110,000 b/d, although full operations haven't been restored yet, dissident PdVSA staff have said. The Paraguana refinery complex which has a capacity of 940,000 b/d is producing around 80,000 b/d. The 200,000 b/d Puerto La Cruz refinery is operating at 80% of its capacity, according to dissident staff.

-By Fred Pals, Dow Jones Newswires; 58 212 564 1339; fred.palsdowjones.com

www.sanmateocountytimes.com112681155293,00.html Article Last Updated: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 12:27:30 PM MST By Juan Forero, New York Times

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Organized opposition to President Hugo Chavez edged closer Sunday to a fractious defeat, one day after leaders of a two-month-old general strike officially abandoned most of that protest because it was so unpopular and economically disastrous.

While thousands of Venezuelans turned out Sunday to sign petitions seeking Chavez's resignation, they have no legal effect and Chavez is expected to ignore them. And while anti-Chavez oil workers remain on strike, the government has managed to increase oil production in recent weeks, making their protest increasingly ineffective in Venezuela's most important industry.

"We have definitively defeated a new destabilizing aim, a new perverse, malevolent, criminal effort to sink Venezuela, sink the revolution, sink the government," Chavez told the nation Sunday in this weekly televised call-in show.

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The opposition, which had coalesced in recent months under an umbrella called the Democratic Coordinator to prod for Chavez's ouster, is now splintered in its search for a coherent plan, say political analysts and government opponents close to strike leaders.

"They have not had a clear strategy and now Chavez has passed from a defensive strategy to an offensive strategy," said Alberto Garrido, an author who has chronicled the Chavez presidency in several highly critical books. "He feels that the opposition is weak."

Leaders of the strike had hoped it would force Chavez from power. But on Saturday they scaled it back in the face of staggering economic losses for businesses that had once supported the walkout.

A referendum on Chavez's rule that the opposition had wanted was declared invalid by the Supreme Court last month, and negotiations between the government and opposition will at best lead to an election later this year that Chavez may very well win.

Publicly, opposition leaders said they are undaunted. Sunday, with staunchly anti-Chavez television stations providing day-long coverage, government opponents staged "El Firmazo," or the Big Sign-up -- a petition drive organized and funded by the opposition groups.

But instead of displaying unity and focusing on one realistic aim, the Democratic Coordinator asked Venezuelans to choose from among eight proposals, from cutting the president's term to abolishing a series of economic laws passed by Chavez.

The government, which has embarked on negotiations with the opposition over two electoral solutions proposed last month by former President Jimmy Carter, is expected to ignore the results of the petition drive.

"Today's Big Sign-Up is an emotional climax," said Garrido. "The Big Sign-Up is a way for the opposition to avoid recognizing that their strategy was wrong all along."

The discord in the anti-Chavez movement is also apparent in other steps members of the Democratic Coordinator have proposed. The First Justice Party, for instance, contends that there should be a movement for a citizen assembly to reconstitute the National Assembly, an unlikely proposition that has been harshly criticized by another Democratic Coordinator member, the Democratic Action party. One demand in the petition drive Sunday calls for the Chavez to resign, which he has consistently rejected, even when he was in a far weaker position.

Luis Vicente Leon, a political analyst and co-director of the Caracas polling firm, Datanalisis, said part of the problem is the scattershot approach employed by the opposition. "When they fail, try something else, and then something else and then something else," he said.

Michael Shifter, who closely tracks Venezuela for the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy group, said he has told opposition leaders they should simply focus on a recall referendum for later this year, which could lead to Chavez's ouster. Though the opposition had once rejected the proposal, saying it was too far off, they are now open to the idea, which Chavez had long supported in public comments.

"Hopefully they will learn the lesson that they have to mount a long-term effort and do the political work to come up with the political support, to come up with an agenda," Shifter said from Washington.

Shifter said that the opposition simply "underestimated Chavez's determination to hang on and miscalculated."

"In that sense they are victims of their own strategy," he said.

Still, analysts close to Democratic Coordinator leaders said it will be difficult for them to formulate a clear strategy. The organization is made up of 40 groups, from traditional political parties, to business groups, a labor confederation and a former guerrilla group -- all with their own proposals.

"There are strong divisions," said Leon. "There is difficulty in coordinating a position, when there are radicals and moderates."

Leon and other analysts said they believe that a key for the opposition is choosing a candidate who is able to command attention and, once an election is called, take on Chavez. So far, though, no one challenger has emerged, and the latest Datanalisis poll in January shows that Chavez would most certainly win an election against a wide field of opponents, as currently exists.

Those who remain active in the anti-Chavez fight acknowledged the hardships.

At a Caracas school Sunday morning, with hundreds lining up to sign anti-Chavez petitions, Antonio Ponte, 32, said that he still held out hope even though he acknowledged the strike had not succeeded.

"Of course, it was a hard blow," said Ponte. "But look, there is still optimism. We are going to get rid of Chavez -- we do not know how -- but we are going to do it."

www.sanmateocountytimes.com112681155293,00.html Article Last Updated: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 12:27:30 PM MST By Juan Forero, New York Times

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Organized opposition to President Hugo Chavez edged closer Sunday to a fractious defeat, one day after leaders of a two-month-old general strike officially abandoned most of that protest because it was so unpopular and economically disastrous.

While thousands of Venezuelans turned out Sunday to sign petitions seeking Chavez's resignation, they have no legal effect and Chavez is expected to ignore them. And while anti-Chavez oil workers remain on strike, the government has managed to increase oil production in recent weeks, making their protest increasingly ineffective in Venezuela's most important industry.

"We have definitively defeated a new destabilizing aim, a new perverse, malevolent, criminal effort to sink Venezuela, sink the revolution, sink the government," Chavez told the nation Sunday in this weekly televised call-in show.

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• Students, teacher call for more the space exploration
• Social workers deny baby cover-up
• Mother thinks her 18-year-old son, Osama, may be the victim of a hate crime
• Boy's body found on coast
• Restaurant, bar owners must cough up for security
• Powell plans presentation of photographs to press U.S. case
• Bush plan boosts defense, freezes domestic funds
• Bombers may go to Pacific
• Meter madness
• Drugs in overdose deaths identified
• County making water disaster plans
• Venezuela oil workers hold firm
• Spending plan tailored for utmost political lift
• World Trade Center redesign is down to two competitors
• Caltrain shuttles could be canceled, officials say
• Jury rejects defense case in wife's death
• Mini-park plan meets skateboarder approval
• Upscale senior housing project approved, will begin in summer
• Stanford facing $17 million deficit
• Vallejo couple claims $85 million ticket
• PG&E presents quake safety tips
• Record producer Spector arrested in shooting death
• Mysterious infection attacks L.A. inmates
• They cheer, they jump, they're deaf, they rock!

The opposition, which had coalesced in recent months under an umbrella called the Democratic Coordinator to prod for Chavez's ouster, is now splintered in its search for a coherent plan, say political analysts and government opponents close to strike leaders.

"They have not had a clear strategy and now Chavez has passed from a defensive strategy to an offensive strategy," said Alberto Garrido, an author who has chronicled the Chavez presidency in several highly critical books. "He feels that the opposition is weak."

Leaders of the strike had hoped it would force Chavez from power. But on Saturday they scaled it back in the face of staggering economic losses for businesses that had once supported the walkout.

A referendum on Chavez's rule that the opposition had wanted was declared invalid by the Supreme Court last month, and negotiations between the government and opposition will at best lead to an election later this year that Chavez may very well win.

Publicly, opposition leaders said they are undaunted. Sunday, with staunchly anti-Chavez television stations providing day-long coverage, government opponents staged "El Firmazo," or the Big Sign-up -- a petition drive organized and funded by the opposition groups.

But instead of displaying unity and focusing on one realistic aim, the Democratic Coordinator asked Venezuelans to choose from among eight proposals, from cutting the president's term to abolishing a series of economic laws passed by Chavez.

The government, which has embarked on negotiations with the opposition over two electoral solutions proposed last month by former President Jimmy Carter, is expected to ignore the results of the petition drive.

"Today's Big Sign-Up is an emotional climax," said Garrido. "The Big Sign-Up is a way for the opposition to avoid recognizing that their strategy was wrong all along."

The discord in the anti-Chavez movement is also apparent in other steps members of the Democratic Coordinator have proposed. The First Justice Party, for instance, contends that there should be a movement for a citizen assembly to reconstitute the National Assembly, an unlikely proposition that has been harshly criticized by another Democratic Coordinator member, the Democratic Action party. One demand in the petition drive Sunday calls for the Chavez to resign, which he has consistently rejected, even when he was in a far weaker position.

Luis Vicente Leon, a political analyst and co-director of the Caracas polling firm, Datanalisis, said part of the problem is the scattershot approach employed by the opposition. "When they fail, try something else, and then something else and then something else," he said.

Michael Shifter, who closely tracks Venezuela for the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy group, said he has told opposition leaders they should simply focus on a recall referendum for later this year, which could lead to Chavez's ouster. Though the opposition had once rejected the proposal, saying it was too far off, they are now open to the idea, which Chavez had long supported in public comments.

"Hopefully they will learn the lesson that they have to mount a long-term effort and do the political work to come up with the political support, to come up with an agenda," Shifter said from Washington.

Shifter said that the opposition simply "underestimated Chavez's determination to hang on and miscalculated."

"In that sense they are victims of their own strategy," he said.

Still, analysts close to Democratic Coordinator leaders said it will be difficult for them to formulate a clear strategy. The organization is made up of 40 groups, from traditional political parties, to business groups, a labor confederation and a former guerrilla group -- all with their own proposals.

"There are strong divisions," said Leon. "There is difficulty in coordinating a position, when there are radicals and moderates."

Leon and other analysts said they believe that a key for the opposition is choosing a candidate who is able to command attention and, once an election is called, take on Chavez. So far, though, no one challenger has emerged, and the latest Datanalisis poll in January shows that Chavez would most certainly win an election against a wide field of opponents, as currently exists.

Those who remain active in the anti-Chavez fight acknowledged the hardships.

At a Caracas school Sunday morning, with hundreds lining up to sign anti-Chavez petitions, Antonio Ponte, 32, said that he still held out hope even though he acknowledged the strike had not succeeded.

"Of course, it was a hard blow," said Ponte. "But look, there is still optimism. We are going to get rid of Chavez -- we do not know how -- but we are going to do it."