www.upi.com By Owain Johnson From the International Desk Published 2/25/2003 2:33 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela, Feb. 25 (UPI) -- President Hugo Chavez once famously noted that Venezuela and Cuba are sailing together in the Sea of Happiness. This might well be true. Certainly, all the signs are that Venezuelans might want to brush up their raft-making skills.

Chavez's leftist government and the opposition remain at odds despite intensive international mediation efforts. Meanwhile, 90 percent of Venezuelans told a recent poll they believe that the economic situation is "grave," and 43 percent said it will worsen still further.

Those 43 percent are the smart ones. The prospects for the oil-rich country, once nicknamed Saudi Venezuela, are so awful that some businesses are even looking to relocate to Colombia. Despite being in the midst of a brutal 39-year civil war, many business owners now believe Colombia is actually more stable and business-friendly than Chavez's Venezuela.

"I know there are some companies that are already on three-month standby notice to leave the country," said Danay Zoppi, the president of the Association of Chemical Producers. "Businesses have cut salaries by as much as 30 percent and many are working four-day weeks."

Venezuela used to be a magnet for economic migrants from Colombia and nearby Caribbean islands, but the giant lines outside the American, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese embassies show Venezuela now as a country of would-be emigrants.

(Admittedly, the long line has disappeared at least briefly at the Spanish embassy, which was bombed Tuesday by attackers who identified themselves as members of the Simon Bolivar Urban Militia Coordinator and the Bolivarian Liberation Force. Leaflets found at the scene of the embassy and the Colombian consulate, the other target, accused the two countries of intervening in Venezuelan affairs -- comments similar to those made by Chavez on Sunday. Government supporters blamed the attacks on opposition groups trying to poison world opinion against Chavez.)

Venezuelans with no foreign escape route in place are preparing for a very rocky ride over the next few months. The opposition's recent two-month general strike delivered the coup de grace to a sickly economy and left the country facing an economic meltdown that is likely to lead to serious shortages of many basic goods.

Venezuela is highly reliant on imports, but the strike closed ports and affected the oil production that pays for most of the imports. In response, the government has imposed strict currency controls and price restrictions on basic goods.

Producers are still supplying retailers from their pre-strike stocks, but once these are exhausted, the prospects are grim. Even in a best-case scenario, it will take several weeks for new imports to arrive. Importers face long waits to get clearance and dollars from the authorities before they can order goods that must then be brought from the United States, Asia or Europe.

"There will be a gap," warned Sergio Sesti, the general manager of importer S.F.C. "In the two months of the strike, companies used up all their stock, and if it takes 30 to 45 days to get approval to import, then it will be May before any shipments reach us."

At the moment the import situation is only affecting those high-end consumers, whose pets prefer to eat imported brands and who like the occasional dram of imported whisky.

But as Sesti notes, import problems mean many essentials could vanish from supermarket shelves within weeks, while shortages of raw materials could force large swathes of industry to shut down, throwing still more Venezuelans out of work.

In a country that already averages a murder every 10 minutes on weekends, these potential shortages are likely to prove a recipe for looting and violence.

The likely political consequences of any serious disturbances are the subject of intense speculation. Some believe an upsurge in street violence could force the military or the international community to intervene to restore order and oblige Chavez to call elections. Others believe, however, that any disturbances would strengthen Chavez's position by justifying the imposition of a state of emergency.

Critics say Chavez is already moving towards authoritarian rule. Last week, he personally approved the controversial arrest of opposition leader Carlos Fernandez, the head of a business association that had helped organize the general strike.

The president has also said that his government has allowed the opposition to set the political agenda for far too long. In recent speeches, Chavez has told supporters that 2003 will be the decisive year for his "Bolivarian revolution" in favor of the poor.

"We have stopped being on the defensive and now we are going on the attack," Chavez said in a recent speech. "Every Venezuelan should keep this powerful idea, this powerful belief in their heart: this will be the victorious attack of the Bolivarian offensive."

Venezuelans waiting for his "victorious attack" are flocking to embassies and stocking their cupboards. They know all too well that there are likely to be plenty of storms ahead before the country reaches the president's Sea of Happiness.

www.aberdeennews.com Posted on Tue, Feb. 25, 2003 H. JOSEF HEBERT Associated Press

WASHINGTON - The government's emergency oil stocks will not be used to dampen soaring energy prices, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham told senators Tuesday, but the Bush administration will move quickly to draw on the reserves if severe supply shortages appear.

The emergency stocks "should not be used to address price fluctuations," Abraham told senators, worried about soaring fuel costs.

"We will and we can act quickly to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ... to offset any severe disruptions if it's needed," Abraham told a Senate hearing. He said, however, the 600 million barrels held in the reserve on the Louisiana-Texas coast would be used only "to provide energy security."

"We do not believe it should be used to address price fluctuations," Abraham said.

Appeals for government intervention grew louder Tuesday as spot prices of natural gas briefly soared to nearly double the record high of two years ago, in the midst of the California energy crisis, and the price of gasoline lingered at over $2 a gallon in many parts of the country. Heating oil supplies remained tight and prices high.

"People are being pinched like never before" by soaring gasoline and other energy prices, Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., told Abraham. Wyden said consumers "are getting hosed because they're not getting any protection."

Likewise, Abraham dismissed a request by a group of New England heating oil companies that the government make available some of the 2 million barrels of heating oil kept in a Northeast reserve. "Two million barrels is not a lot," he said, and it should be kept in place "unless there's an emergency situation in terms of supply."

Abraham said it may be two to three months before Venezuelan oil shipments to the United States return to normal levels, although he suggested the political crisis bedeviling oil production in the South American country has passed. Venezuela has been a leading source of U.S. imports, accounting last year for about 1.5 million barrels a day. Most analysts place part of the blame for the low supplies of crude and petroleum products on the loss of Venezuelan oil imports.

Abraham, appearing before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said he understood that "the crisis that has essentially shut down production (in Venezuela) has passed," but it would take 60 to 90 days before the country's imports would return to normal levels.

At a separate hearing later Tuesday, senators expressed dismay about the sudden spike in the price of natural gas, which is used widely across much of the country for heating and for producing electric power.

Natural gas prices have increased by nearly 40 percent since the first of the year and jumped dramatically this week. Contracts for gas delivery in March closed Tuesday at $9.58 per 1,000 cubic feet, an increase of almost $3 from last week.

Spot prices took an even sharper jump.

Guy Caruso, head of the Energy Information Administration, told senators the spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub, a benchmark delivery point in Louisiana, soared briefly $18 and $20 Tuesday before dropping back to $12.20, the same as on Monday. The spot price two years ago, in the midst of California's energy crisis, reached a high of about $10 per thousand cubic feet.

Only a small fraction of the natural gas sold, between 5 percent and 10 percent, is bought on the spot market. Most gas is contracted in advance at lower rates. Still, the run-up caught energy analysts and industry executives by surprise.

"A lot of this is people speculating," Keith Rattie, president of Questar Corp., a natural gas producer based in Salt Lake City, told the senators. He added that much of the speculation is being triggered by higher than expected demand and low natural gas inventories in storage.

The EIA, the statistical arm of the Energy Department, reported last week only 1,168 billion cubic feet of natural gas were in storage as of mid-February, 27 percent lower than the five-year average at this time and 43 percent below what was in storage a year ago.

On the Net: Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.gov

Hola a todos,

El periódico El País en España conduce una encuesta que pregunta : ¿Cree que Venezuela puede recuperar la estabilidad con Chávez en el Gobierno?.

Los invito a conectarse y votar en el siguiente enlace:

www.elpais.es

Por favor voten y corran la voz. Esto es una oportunidad de crear imagen sobre lo que ocurre en Venezuela con números reales.

Saludos,

breakingnews.iol.ie 25/02/2003 - 10:53:59 Two powerful explosions injured four people and damaged the Spanish embassy and the Colombian consulate in the Venezuelan capital early today. Broken glass covered the street outside both buildings while windows in residences almost a block away were shattered by the force of the blasts. Steel gates at the buildings were twisted. Leaflets supporting President Hugo Chavez’s so-called Bolivarian Revolution, a political movement based loosely on the writings of 19th century independence hero Simon Bolivar, were found outside the Spanish Embassy. “We believe these were very potent bombs judging by the damage done,” said the mayor of Caracas’ Chacao district, Leopoldo Lopez. The first blast was outside the Spanish embassy in eastern Caracas at about 2am The second explosion, 15 minutes later, rocked the Colombian consulate. The blasts lightly injured four people, including a night watchmen. The explosions came shortly after Chavez warned Colombia and Spain, among other countries, not to meddle in Venezuela’s domestic affairs. Both nations had expressed concern over the arrest of opposition leader Carlos Fernandez, who was arrested last week for his role in leading a two-month general strike against Chavez. Authorities said no arrests had been made in connection with the two explosions early this morning.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, February 25, 2003 By: Roy S. Carson

Security services report two explosions in the early hours of Tuesday morning ... one at the Spanish Embassy in La Castellana and a second at the Colombian Consulate in Chacaito.  First reports say 4 people have been injured and there has been "significant destruction" to both diplomatic missions as well as to neighboring buildings.

The bombings took place at approximately 2:00 a.m. local time.  A security guard at the Spanish Embassy was injured and three buildings and two homes in the neighborhood suffered severe material damage.

Globovision Channel 33 TV news has been showing this picture of one of the pamphlets

Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez arrived at the scene outside the Spanish Embassy soon afterwards and told reporters that pamphlets, ascribed to the Bolivarian Liberation Front (BLF) urban militia, had been recovered claiming Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez to be part of "a fascist oligarchy" and that "the Bolivarian revolution does not need the interest or the intervention of" OAS secretary general Cesar Gaviria or US ex-President Jimmy Carter.

• Government officials have unhesitatingly denounced the attacks as cowardly and have promised a full investigation.

The explosion at the Colombian Consulate took place some fifteen minutes after the original explosion at the Spanish Embassy, injuring a security guard, his wife and young daughter ... the building's glass-frontage has been entirely shattered and there has been substantial damage to buildings close by.  A Colombian diplomat was quickly at the scene but said she would not make any statement to the media until later.

Meanwhile, State Security DISIP police and CICPC detectives are working with fire department officials to sift through the wreckage and the rubble to determine what happened.  Traces of C4 Semtex have been discovered and immediate arrangements have been made for heightened security at other embassies and diplomatic residences.

Theories abound as diplomats and security executives attempt to piece the events together.  Early suspicions have been raised that the explosions are part of an opposition counter-offensive attempting to discredit the government using the BLF urban militia as a pretext.

"Just because BLF pamphlets were discovered at the scene does not necessarily mean that they were behind the bombings," a DISIP source has told VHeadline.com.  "In the weird scenario that is Caracas these days, it could just as easily have been some opposition hot-heads trying to deflect attention away from the general manhunt for CTV leader Carlos Ortega ... we are keeping an open mind!"