Adamant: Hardest metal
Tuesday, June 24, 2003

Venezuela Court Says Oil Workers Fired Illegally, Nacional Says

June 13 (<a href=quote.bloomberg.com>Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's Supreme Court ruled the firing of about 18,000 oil workers by the government during a two- month strike was illegal because the workers were union members, El Nacional said.

The court said the workers status as members of the Unapetrol union prevented the government from firing them, the newspaper said. Labor Minister Maria Cristina Iglesias said the government would not rehire the workers and that the firings were justified because the workers had abandoned their jobs for more than three days, the paper said.

The strike in December and January, which cut oil production by as much as 95 percent, cost the economy $7.4 billion. Labor unions, business leaders and former oil executives organized the national work stoppage to pressure President Hugo Chavez to step down and hold elections.

Venezuela may hold a binding referendum later this year on Chavez's rule.

(EN, 6/13 B1)

To see El Nacional's Web site, click on {NCNL } Last Updated: June 13, 2003 09:52 EDT

ANALYSIS-OPEC seeks to defend oil power from U.S. threat

Reuters, 06.13.03, 9:41 AM ET By Tom Ashby DOHA, June 13 (Reuters) - The OPEC oil cartel could be forgiven for feeling a touch of paranoia. Iraq, where it was born in 1960, has been invaded and occupied by the United States, and now Washington hawks call for "regime change" in Iran, another founder member. Venezuela blames America for backing a failed coup attempt last year, and some in the Pentagon question the U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia, linchpin of the cartel. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has remained silent in the face of the threat to a growing number of its members, confining debate to the price of its oil. Until now, that is. Venezuela, under the fiercely nationalist leadership of Hugo Chavez, has put the issue of sovereignty back to the top of the agenda at a recently revived long-term strategy meeting. "We need to emphasise the idea that the world has left behind the colonial era, when one power could take by force the resources of another country," Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters after Wednesday's ministerial meeting in the Qatari capital. "There are several countries which could feel threatened." The proposal is some way from becoming policy of the group that controls half of world oil exports, and is unlikely to lead to any immediate threat to supplies. But the idea of tightening OPEC's grip over two-thirds of the world's oil reserves, and seeking to avoid military attack, has awakened interest from other members. "Of course it is a serious concern that OPEC members with big oil reserves will become occupied by foreign powers," said a delegate from another of the 11-member group.

CREEPING BACK OPEC made its name in the 1970s by nationalising the Western-controlled oil companies in their countries, and forcing the industrialised world to pay higher prices for oil imports. But Western capital has been creeping back into OPEC since the 1980s, while the United States, anxious to secure cheap supplies, has increased its military and political influence in key members such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and recently Iraq. Under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, OPEC has traded the revolutionary rhetoric of the 1970s for talk of partnership with consuming countries in the West. Some in the cartel think the scale has tipped too far in favour of Washington and see the Iraq war as a bad omen. "The United States can't continue to invent wars. We want to have a deal with the world powers -- we will supply oil and gas, but you can't invade my country -- after Iraq, who is next?" said an OPEC delegate, asking not to be named. The Venezuelan proposal is to link the long-held OPEC principle of security of oil supply to the national security of OPEC nations themselves. If approved by OPEC ministers, it would be tabled at the next summit of OPEC heads of state, due to be held in 2005. Some delegates believe that unless OPEC rediscovers its ideological roots -- asserting sovereignty over its natural resources -- the cartel could be destroyed by a resurgent U.S. foreign policy, combined with the financial power of four "supermajor" oil companies. The discussion could be welcomed by some members such as Iran and Libya, which are already under U.S. sanctions, but face opposition from Saudi Arabia, which excludes politics from OPEC debates, partly to make the group a more focused market manager.

ECONOMIC WARFARE Given the current climate in Washington, any attempt to give OPEC a more political agenda could also give fuel to critics who see the cartel is an instrument of economic warfare against the world's only superpower. "We are trying not to let this get too political," said a delegate from a pro-U.S. member. Venezuelan OPEC officials believe that country's experience with foreign investment in the 1990s, and what it sees as Washington's hand behind last year's coup attempt, could be repeated all over OPEC. "We said that the case of Venezuela could be repeated in other OPEC members with very negative results, destabilising countries," said Luis Vierma, Venezuela's deputy oil minister, who presented the ideas earlier in June. Venezuela has also proposed that OPEC reinforce its sovereign powers by establishing a minimum royalty rate across the group, which has two-thirds of the world's oil reserves. Royalty, a tax on gross production, has been a largely academic issue in OPEC since nationalisation, because the producing companies have became fully owned by the OPEC states. But they have become a hot topic again as foreign investment grows, especially because royalties have been eroded or even abolished in non-OPEC producers like Britain. Income tax, which taxes profit rather than production, are more popular outside OPEC. Venezuela under Chavez has hiked its royalty rate to 30 percent, but many other OPEC states have agreed to discounts to attract Western capital.

Trade Gap Narrows Slightly

Breaking News June 13, 2003 By Elizabeth Price <a href=www.smartmoney.com>Dow Jones Newswires

WASHINGTON -- The April U.S. trade deficit narrowed just slightly from a record high in March, as a jump in the volume of oil imports offset some of the effect of lower prices on the nation's energy bill.

The deficit in international trade in goods and services narrowed to $42.03 billion in April from a revised deficit of $42.87 billion in March, the Commerce Department said Friday. The March shortfall had been previously reported at $43.46 billion. However, Commerce issued substantial revisions to trade data from 1992 to 2003, stemming from its annual recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors.

Analysts had expected the trade gap to narrow in April. A Dow Jones-CNBC survey of economists had predicted the deficit would narrow to $41.8 billion for the month. But sluggish economic growth overseas depressed exports, leaving the deficit a bit higher than predicted.

April imports fell 2.1% to $123.03 billion, reflecting a $2.36 billion drop in imports of industrial supplies like energy, iron and other metals. Americans bought fewer foreign-made autos and parts, lowering imports by $400 million, and cut imports of consumer goods like toys, clothes and pharmaceuticals by $179 million. Imports of foods, feeds, and beverages rose $60 million to a record $4.69 billion.

The U.S. crude oil tab totaled $8.19 billion in April, down from $9.10 billion in March. This reflected imports of 314.66 million barrels for the month--the second-highest on record, Commerce said. The rise in volume in part offset a $4.25 drop in the average price of a barrel to $26.02.

Exports were off 2.2% to $81.00 billion. The largest decline, $616 million, came from capital goods like computers and industrial engines. Consumer goods exports fell $156 million, while U.S. sales of industrial supplies fell $153 million.

The report showed that deficits with major U.S. trading partners were mixed in April. The trade deficit with Western Europe decreased to $8.44 billion from $7.79 billion in March.

Deficits with NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada narrowed. The deficit with Mexico narrowed to $3.34 billion from $3.92 billion the previous month. The deficit with Canada dropped to $3.81 billion from $5.15 billion.

The deficit with China widened to $9.45 billion from $7.67 billion, and the deficit with Japan grew to $5.97 billion from $5.83 billion.

The April deficit with OPEC countries, like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela reached a record level of $5.03 billion.

-Elizabeth Price; Dow Jones Newswires; 202 862-9295; elizabeth.price@dowjones.com.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-13-03 0847ET

Oil slides on inventory revision

Industry group IEA says major consumers are more comfortably supplied than previously thought.

June 13, 2003: 1:56 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money - Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 5 percent Friday after the International Energy Agency said major consumers were more comfortably supplied than it previously thought.

U.S. light crude for August delivery was down $1.15 at $29.15 a barrel Friday afternoon, after trading as low as $28.75, extending sharp losses on Thursday and pulling prices away from recent 12-week highs above $32.

London Brent crude for August delivery fell 97 cents to $26.25 a barrel, after trading as low as $26.03 Friday.

Prices fell as the Paris-based IEA, energy adviser to 26 industrialized nations, said it had undershot by 79 million barrels in its previous estimate of oil stock levels.

The agency's revised estimate put oil stocks in the industrialized world at 2.439 billion barrels at the end of April.

"Stocks are still below normal and can absorb some surplus in the third quarter, but I think we have entered a stage when more supply is coming on the market and will impact prices," said Geoff Pyne, oil market consultant to Sempra Energy Trading.

The IEA said the revision did not change its view that global markets were tight. Stocks are still 157 million barrels, or 6.5 percent, below 2002.

"The market is obviously better supplied than we thought as little as two weeks ago, but stocks are still low and fundamentals are still tight, so we need to build more stocks," said Klaus Rehaag, editor of the IEA monthly oil market report.

"The increase in crude stocks may, however, signal some relief for an otherwise tighter heating oil situation later this year," he added.

Oil stocks have been drawn down this year by a harsh northern winter and supply disruptions from a strike in Venezuela, ethnic strife in Nigeria and the war in Iraq.

Iraq on Thursday sold its first oil since the U.S.-led invasion nearly three months ago, but looting and sabotage at oil facilities are expected to keep Iraq's exports well below prewar levels for several months.

The delays in Iraq's postwar export resumption enabled the OPEC producer cartel, which set a $22-$28 target range for its basket of crude oil, to postpone fresh supply cuts at Wednesday's meeting in Qatar.  

IEA Revises Oil Stock Data Upwards

Fri June 13, 2003 08:08 AM ET By Tom Ashby

LONDON (<a href=reuters.com>Reuters) - The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), made on Friday an unprecedented 79-million-barrel upwards revision to its oil inventory data for the industrialized world in March.

The healthier supply picture knocked world oil prices lower, and analysts said the appearance of such a large volume of oil backed up OPEC concerns of oversupply in the third quarter.

The IEA said the timing of the revision was unfortunate, given that the world oil market was seeking direction after the U.S.-led war on Iraq, but that it did not change its view that global markets were tight, especially for gasoline.

"The market is obviously better supplied than we thought as little as two weeks ago, but stocks are still low and fundamentals are still tight, so we need to build more stocks," said Klaus Rehaag, editor of the IEA monthly oil market report.

Benchmark Brent crude oil fell 41 cents to $27.42 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures lost 47 cents at $31.04.

Geoff Pyne, oil market consultant to Sempra Energy Trading, said the revision showed that the OPEC exporting cartel, which stayed its hand on output cuts earlier this week, was right to be concerned by surplus supply.

"All the signs from OPEC were that they knew that U.S. oil prices should not be at $31 a barrel. I thoroughly agree," Pyne said. "Stocks are still below normal and can absorb some surplus in the third quarter, but I think we have entered a stage when more supply is coming on the market and will impact prices."

STOCKS ROSE IN APRIL

After the revision, the IEA said inventories fell at a rate of 570,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average in the first three months of the year. Stocks switched to a rising trend in April, building by an average 720,000 bpd in that month.

The agency said industry stocks in the industrialized world at the end of April at 2.439 billion barrels were still 157 million barrels below the previous year.

OPEC crude output in May rose by 220,000 bpd in May to 26.4 million bpd, the IEA said, due to a recovery in Venezuela and Nigeria where production was crippled earlier this year by strikes and ethnic clashes. Iraqi output was also rising.

OPEC ministers at this week's meeting in Qatar agreed to leave their output ceiling of 25.4 million bpd unchanged, though the group had earlier contemplated a cut to accommodate rising Iraqi volumes.

OPEC signaled instead that it could cut supplies when it meets again in Vienna on July 31.

The IEA forecast for oil demand growth this year was unchanged at 1.0 million bpd, the strongest rate for four years, taking average demand for the 12-month period to 77.9 million bpd.

The agency revised downwards its estimate for demand in the second quarter, but raised forecast demand for the second half of the year.

"Fuel substitution into oil will remain a key driver of demand growth in the third quarter, spurred by extended nuclear power plant shutdowns in Japan and sustained high natural gas prices in the U.S.," the IEA said.

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