www.barbadosadvocate.com Web Posted - Thu Mar 13 2003

CARIBBEAN tourism is bracing for international conflict and its associated hardship, as the Bush administration presses for war with Iraq.

Considering this region’s dependence on the outside world for tourists, oil and other trade, and the lingering hangover from the economic fallout of the attacks of 9/11, most commentators believe that Caribbean economies will suffer significantly if the looming war becomes a reality.

“The context is already a bad one,” Anthony Gonzalves, director of the Institute of International Relations at the University of the West Indies, recently commented. “If you impose a war on the current situation, you’ll see how much worse it can get.”

Caribbean governments are attempting to cushion the anticipated fallout by seeking price guarantees on oil and developing plans to boost travel promotion, but their ability to cushion the impact may be limited.

“No one believes this war would be good for business,” said Jean Holder, secretary-general of the Caribbean Tourism Organisation. “We pray that it doesn’t break out.”

This region is, however, accustomed to buffeting by outside forces. Tourism has yet to recover fully from the terrorist attacks in the United States, whilst he flow of oil from Venezuela remains uncertain.

The European Community is phasing out preferential prices for bananas and sugar. The offshore banking and insurance industry remain under pressure from international organisations.

Tourism, however, has the most to lose, as a US attack on Iraq would strike directly at the Caribbean’s largest industry. As many as 20 million visitors – more than half of them from the United States – pump billions of dollars into the region annually. That trade, which employs as much as three-quarters of the workforce on some islands, is still recovering from a ten per cent drop in arrivals since September 11, 2001.

“If there’s a war, people don’t go on holidays,” Edward Carrington, secretary-general of the Caribbean Community, said last month.

During the 1991 Persian Gulf War, tourist visits to some islands fell by as much as 30 per cent. Simon Suarez, president of the Caribbean Hotel Association, said a similar experience now would be “a terrific blow.”

“There are quite clear signs of recovery, but that could come to a sudden stop if this war actually goes and if it lasts a long time,” said Suarez, an executive with Coral Hotels and Resorts in the Dominican Republic.

“The long-term effect will be that there will be a gap in the growth pattern.”

Holder said the impact might not be as negative as feared. In 1991, some American vacationers who would otherwise have gone overseas to Europe, visited the Caribbean instead. After the war, the region recovered more quickly than other parts of the world.

Still, Holder said, any additional decline would further burden the struggling airline industry. United and US Airways already have declared bankruptcy, and analysts have speculated American Airlines – the leading carrier to the Caribbean – could follow suit.

Reliance on fuel imports makes the Caribbean vulnerable to oil price hikes. The recent reduction in flow from Venezuela during the general strike against the government of President Hugo Chavez, sparked walkouts by transportation workers in Guyana and Haiti, and raised consumer prices on several islands.

Oil-producing Trinidad and Tobago already told its neighbours it would not be able to hold prices to a “pre-Iraq war” level, should hostilities commence.

The nation imports half the petroleum it refines, and so is also vulnerable to world price fluctuations.

“Our willingness to empathise is not supported by the realities of our own situation,” Prime Minister Patrick Manning said.

War plans are affecting the US territories in another way. In Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, thousands of Army reservists and National Guardsmen are answering the call to service; in the case of Puerto Rico, those numbers are the largest in island history. While troops train with weapons and gas masks, the government has opened several family- support centres.

At the governmental level, the region’s leaders – with the exception of Cuba’s Fidel Castro – have sounded a more measured ambivalence.

In a communiqué last month, the heads of the Caribbean Community bloc of 15 nations called on the United States to exercise restraint while urging Iraq to co-operate fully with weapons inspectors.

“These islands are economically dependent on the United States,” said Ralph Premdas, a professor of public policy at the University of the West Indies. “I don’t think you’re going to find any place except for Cuba officially coming out against the war.”

Instead, leaders are preparing contingency plans. In Puerto Rico, for example, the government has pre-purchased ten million barrels of petroleum at a fixed price, and invested in hedges – insurance to protect against fluctuations in fuel prices – for 2.7 million barrels more. The US commonwealth has set aside $3.5 million for additional tourist promotion.

The Caribbean Hotel Association has advised members on public relations messages – promoting, for example, perceptions of the region as safe and affordable – while urging them to establish more flexible cancellation policies for travellers stranded by events.

www.heraldtribune.com By ALEXANDRA OLSON Associated Press Writer

If you think Americans went crazy over their flag after Sept. 11, you should come to Venezuela. Venezuelans don't just decorate their homes with flags. They're wearing them on T-shirts, shorts, skirts, back-packs, fanny-packs - even bikinis. It's a fashion craze spun from the turmoil surrounding President Hugo Chavez's four-year rule, in which pro-and anti-Chavez Venezuelans are fighting to prove which side is most patriotic. Almost every clothing store in town seems to carry items featuring the yellow-blue-and-red banner, with an arch of seven white stars in the middle. On every street in Caracas, at least one person wears some form of the flag. Now, Venezuela's haute couture is embracing the trend. On Wednesday - National Flag Day - 20 local designers displayed flag-inspired gowns at an evening competition at the Melia Hotel in Caracas. The fashion elite sipped wine while gazing at mannequins sporting gowns ranging from regal to outrageous. There was a simple strapless A-line with layers of yellow, blue and red chiffon. There was also a mini dress made from linked copper and bronze stars. Underneath, was a royal blue bikini. A yellow cape swept down the back, decorated with yellow, blue and red parrots. The winning dress was to be worn by Venezuela's contestant at the 2003 Miss Universe pageant. "It used to be cheesy to wear the flag," said designer Octavio Vasquez. "Now it's matter of pride to wear the flag, hold the flag, be the flag." It all started when Chavez bucked a law banning national symbols at political events. During his frequent rallies, Chavez uses them all: the flag, the national anthem and images of 19th-century independence hero Simon Bolivar. The result was a flag war. Vowing to "take back" the emblem, Venezuela's opposition turned its own marches into seas of red, blue and yellow. Opponents unfurled the banner outside their car windows, homes and office buildings. But the power behind the fashion is Venezuela's army of street vendors. Eager to profit from the protests, hawkers got creative, selling everything from flag knapsacks to tricolor beaded jewelry. For some, it's all a bit much. Sitting on a park bench, Jesus Flores, 80, eyes a vendor. "Wearing the flag as a bikini isn't patriotic," he grumbles. "The flag is a symbol. We should respect it." Last modified: March 13. 2003 9:10A

www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, March 13, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

Depending on if you believe government or opposition estimates, Venezuela is currently producing well over two million barrels of oil per day, with the government putting the figure at 2.6 million and rebel Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) executives insisting 2.1 million. 

Although both estimates are still well below output levels of 3.2 million barrels per day before the opposition work stoppage began on December 2, they still represent a huge improvement on mid-December levels of 150,000 barrels per day and show PDVSA has been able to recover production significantly faster than may analysts had expected. 

It had been assumed by many that a recover back to around 1.5 million barrels per day would be quite easy, but due to a lack of experienced personnel several analysts claimed that above that figure a recovery would be very slow as older more complex wells would be harder to get back on line. 

Another important factor is the fact that the recovery has come despite the sacking of around 16,000 of the pre-strike 38,000 workers, as the government seeks to cut the company's overheads and make it more profitable. 

www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, March 13, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

During a trip to Bogota Colombia, Venezuela's Foreign (MRE) Minister Roy Chaderton Matos has accused the media of trying to promote an assassination attempt of President Hugo Chavez Frias. According to the Minister evidence exists of such a plan.

"I have here with me a series of evidence in which the Venezuelan and some foreign mass media in the hemisphere have made calls for the assassination of the President of Venezuela."

The Foreign Minister also accused the Venezuelan opposition "supported by the media" of encouraging an attempt on the President's life.

The comments came after Chaderton arrived in Colombia for talks with the region's other Foreign Ministers. During the visit the Minister is also expected to discuss a presidential level summit with Colombian counterpart in a bid to resolve the tensions that have built up of the past few weeks.

osted: Thursday, March 13, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

Members of President Hugo Chavez Frias' Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) party are set to hold talks with US Ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro tomorrow to discuss various domestic and international concerns.

The meeting was announced by former National Assembly president Willian Lara, who said that the MVR deputies plan to explain to the Ambassador that Venezuela's public powers are entirely autonomous and that they do not answer to the government.

Lara says that this has become necessary as members of his party have "noticed some confusion" on this issue in recent statements made by US State Department officials. "We are very concerned about the repeated statements made by Otto Reich, which are obviously biased and influenced by the interests of Venezuelan opposition groups."