www.azcentral.com O. Ricardo Pimentel Republic columnist Mar. 16, 2003 12:00 AM

Well, of course it's about oil. President Bush can talk all he wants about planting the seeds of democracy in Iraq that will one day bloom into flowers of freedom throughout the Middle East. He can tell us about weapons of mass destruction, dubious links to al-Qaida and what a nasty, nasty guy is Saddam Hussein. But the truth is we wouldn't be much bothering about Iraq were it not for oil and the fact that about 10 percent of the world's reserve happens to be under that country. And guess what? This concern for oil is entirely rational given our conspicuous consumption of it. In fact, Bush would be irresponsible if he wasn't concerned about regional stability in a place that supplies much of the world's go-juice. It's abundantly clear that Bush believes that Iraq is a rogue terrorist state. It's perfectly reasonable then to worry about potentially vast oil wealth funding such a nation's aims. The only valid question is why Bush does not simply own up. Well, partly it's because many anti-war critics make it so easy. They pitch the argument too simplistically, as about the United States wanting to "own" Iraqi oil. This is nonsense. Bush wants the next best thing: a friendly regime controlling the oil. What he wants is a regime not as likely to cause mischief among countries similarly attractive to us only as peddlers of the crude. There are valid geopolitical reasons to desire this. Yes, Saddam would be pleased as punch to sell us all the oil we want at a relatively low price. But even our best spinmeisters would have difficulty getting the rest of us to swallow trading with a guy they've been calling Hitler for the past 12 years or so. No matter. Bring up oil, and conservatives cry foul when, in fact, it's about the only argument for this war that makes any sense. Weapons of mass destruction? That Saddam harbors them is a foregone conclusion. But they pose an immediate threat to our national security only if we invade. Those aluminum tubes likely weren't for any nuclear weapons program, one defanged long ago in any case. Containment, you see, mostly works. Saddam's tyranny? If that were our reason, other tyrants register just as much or more on the atrocity meter. Unless oil or other strategic interests are involved, we're mostly not interested, Bosnia and Kosovo being exceptions. Different president, however, and didn't this current president pooh-pooh such nation-building? Al-Qaida? Even administration folks have trouble keeping straight faces selling this one by now. Liberian mercenary troops are allegedly invading the Ivory Coast. But we don't value cocoa, that country's major export, as much as we do oil. Well, most of us don't. And it's hard to keep track of which African country's troops have been sighted recently violating the Congo's sovereignty. Where's the outrage? Indonesia invaded East Timor in 1975. We did not erect any international military coalition to repel it. In this case, Indonesia had the oil. Hmm. When that clearly illegal coup briefly drove Hugo Chavez from office in Venezuela last year, we quickly endorsed the new government and then had to backtrack when Chavez was reinstalled. Chavez would be just another run-of-the-mill lefty to us if Venezuela wasn't swimming in oil. If Cuba had oil and we wanted some, Castro would be history. Look, I would be just as reluctant to go to war without broad international backing even if Bush, et al, were to own up to oil as the reason. Simply, clear and viable alternatives exist. But a little more honesty and much less false outrage, please. Yes, we have a bad case of the terrorist jitters, but oil is a great big reason that Saddam has the ability to rile us at all. Instead of owning up, however, the administration cops this how-dare-you-suggest-such-a-thing attitude every time the topic comes up. No one can say this next part enough. The fact that we find ourselves contemplating war, with oil as a major reason, is just the latest wake-up call that we need to wean ourselves. This is a tall order, requiring a monumental and transforming effort. And this might just be the real reason Bush doesn't own up to oil as a lubricant for this particular war. He apparently finds war easier than spearheading the changes domestically that might actually make the world a safer and better place to live.

Reach Pimentel at ricardo.pimentel@arizonarepublic.com or (602) 444-8210. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.

www.wavy.com Saturday,March15,2003,8:43 PM

Caracas, Venezuela-AP -- Venezuela's state oil monopoly says its crude oil production has topped three (m) million barrels a day. That's the same level that occurred before a crippling national strike.

Oil executives fired for participating in the strike dispute the government figures, saying daily production is at two-point-one (m) million barrels.

Government officials admit work still needs to be done before the industry fully recovers.

The two-month walkout was meant to force President Hugo Chavez to resign or call early elections.

Before the dispute, Venezuela had been the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.

economictimes.indiatimes.com PTI[ FRIDAY, MARCH 14, 2003 12:21:02 PM ]

UNITED NATIONS: UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has raised the possibility of a summit of interested world leaders on Iraq "to get us out of this crisis" while continuing his efforts to keep the Security Council members united over the issue.

Annan on Thursday welcomed the idea of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for a summit of interested world leaders, not necessarily members of the Council.

But media reports suggest that the US is not enthusiastic and is unlikely to support the idea with diplomats saying it is too late for any summit to make a difference. Besides, there might not be enough time left for such a meeting and it is better not to have it than having a futile one, they say.

However, Annan continued his efforts to bring unity among the members to save the Council from becoming ineffective in a crisis situation and held one-on-one meetings with ambassadors of all 15 member countries. But diplomats doubted it would have any effect on the course of events.

Annan made yet another appeal for united Security Council action in ridding Iraq of Weapons of Mass Destruction as the Council continued to wrestle whether to give UN inspectors more time or to declare Baghdad in default by next Monday.

"I think what is important is that governments have to find a way of working together," Annan told reporters.

"Regardless of how this crisis or the current issue is resolved, the Council will have to work together, and the member states will have to work together to deal with the situation in Iraq, in Middle East and on many other issues."

Annan said he spoke to British Premier Tony Blair on Monday and he seemed "very genuinely looking" for a compromise and a way forward.

www.nytimes.com By LAURA SILBER

Two weeks ago in Belgrade, I walked into Zoran Djindjic's living room and sat down on the couch. There he was, Serbia's first democratically elected prime minister, talking away, telephone in one hand and remote control in the other. It is hard, now, to believe he is gone, gunned down outside his office on Wednesday.

A pair of crutches lay next to a pile of books on a coffee table; I think "Bush at War" by Bob Woodward was on top. We looked at photographs of my daughters, and he marveled at how the little one resembled my husband. The three of us had been friends back in the days when few outside of Serbia knew Zoran, the man who would one day become leader of his country and send his political arch-enemy, Slobodan Milosevic, to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

Over a long night of talk and wine, we discussed America's code orange security alert, Iraq, Serbia and the world as phantasmagoria: this was Zoran Djindjic, a hundred things at the same time. It was the way he ran Serbia — masterminding, pressing forward with plans to wrench a fractured country into the modern age.

We talked about a failed assassination attempt on him a few days before — a truck had swerved into his car. He seemed unshaken. I told him I was worried about how easily I had entered his house. He made a call to bolster security. I think he assumed he was smarter than his enemies. He and his wife, Ruzica, did not seem afraid. I felt humbled by their courage.

Fit and slim, Zoran was on crutches after rupturing his Achilles tendon the week before in an exhibition soccer match: the government versus the police. He laughed at how the police officers were surprised to see him, and did not know whether to win or to throw the game to the prime minister.

Upbeat and full of plans, this was not a man who expected to die soon.

His murder is a tragedy for Serbia, and a lesson for the United States. When he and his fellow reformers overthrew the Milosevic regime in 2000, they inherited a security system that had been built up Soviet-style by Marshal Tito. Under Mr. Milosevic's stewardship and through years of war and economic decline, that force became an amalgam of paramilitary and organized crime.

Zoran and his reformers were able to remove Mr. Milosevic, and later to send him to be tried, because the secret service units had become disillusioned with the Serbian strongman. But even with him gone they remained unreformed and untouchable.

Something similar is likely to play out wherever America tries to uproot a nasty dangerous despot — as it helped to oust Mr. Milosevic and is trying to oust Saddam Hussein. Even having American troops occupy a country is unlikely to make a difference in the short run. A regime, in particular one that has developed in isolation like Iraq, Serbia and North Korea, does not die with one man. And the security apparatus becomes like a Hydra fighting for survival.

The reformist government lacked the strength to dismantle that system. Indeed, after taking power in 2001 Zoran opted at first to live in an uneasy coexistence with the security forces. However, he knew that organized crime and corrupt security officers presented a major obstacle to reform. In the last few months Zoran was gearing up for a final showdown with the renegade special forces and their taskmasters in the Serbian police who make up the Zemun mafia clan — brutes with monikers like Idiot, Fool and Bugsy. These men spilled blood in Bosnia, Kosovo, Croatia, the streets of Belgrade and abroad; now they dominate the traffic in drugs and prostitutes and immigrants throughout the Balkans. The prime minister knew they were threatening his life. But he told me he would simply let the thugs kill each other and then send the survivors to The Hague.

His murder is another reminder to the Serbian people that those who committed crimes against Croats, Bosnian Muslims and Kosovars came to roost at home. And these men could not stand the fact that Zoran was trying to wrest control of Serbia.

Two weeks ago I asked Zoran when Serbia would send the remaining indicted war criminals — especially Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb general — to the the dock in Hague. It was too difficult at the time, he answered, there was no one who dared to arrest Mr. Mladic. But he told me he planned to send three army officers accused of crimes committed at Vukovar in Croatia right away. After that, he said, he had been told that the West would stop exerting so much pressure on him to comply with the tribunal.

Zoran Djindjic loved the world. He told me how he had met Fidel Castro at the inauguration of the new Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Mr. Castro said he had expected Zoran to be taller — after all, Yugoslavia is a world force in basketball. "It's the technique, not just the height," Zoran responded.

Mr. Castro said, "I thought you only liked Americans."

"No, I like Cubans, too," Zoran replied, pulling a thick cigar out of his jacket. Castro looked down, laughed, and said the cigar was fake. Later that night the he sent a humidor full of the finest Cuban cigars to Zoran at his hotel.

Perhaps it is only the sort of man who can joke with Fidel Castro and also win the approval of the White House who could hope to forge a new Serbia. There is no doubt that the men who killed Zoran represented a nexus of hard-core nationalists and criminals who hated him because they knew he wanted to rein them in. They hoped that with those bullets, Serbia would fall into disarray and stop cooperating with The Hague, and that the next elected leader would pale next to Zoran Djindjic in courage and intelligence. I fear they were right.

Laura Silber, senior policy adviser at the Open Society Institute, is co-author of "Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation."

www.gulf-daily-news.com Vol XXV   NO. 361      Sunday      16 March 2003

NICOSIA: Crude production from the Opec soared by 8.6 per cent or 2.217 million barrels a day in February to 27.88m bpd, the Middle East Economic Survey (Mees) reported.

With Venezuela resuming output and a significant surge from Gulf states, output by the Opec 10 without Iraq climbed 10.1pc to 25.45m bpd last month from 23.113m bpd in January, the industry newsletter says.

Opec 10 output was 950,000 bpd above the ceiling of 24.5m bpd effective since February 1, Mees notes.

Iraqi production fell 120,000 bpd as exports to Turkey by truck were suspended, Indonesia dropped 60,000 bpd and Nigeria held steady at 2.15m bpd.

The biggest increases were seen in Venezuela which boosted output last month by 880,000 bpd and Saudi Arabia up 800,000 bpd.

Algerian production hit a new all-time high of 1.15m bpd which was expected to rise to 1.25m bpd this month, the Cyprus-based specialists said.

"Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE were expected to continue ramping up production through March with production set to rise to around 9.4m bpd, 2.4m bpd and 2.3m bpd respectively by the end of this month," Mees says.

World oil prices slipped for the second consecutive day on Friday as traders speculated that a quick, successful US-led war in Iraq would lead to a steep fall in prices.

New York's reference light sweet crude contract for April delivery skidded 63 cents to $35.38 a barrel, after having plunged by $1.82 a day earlier.

The price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude for April delivery fell by $1.05 dollars to $31.38 a barrel. The contract had already lost $1.48 on Thursday.