www.belleville.com Posted on Wed, Mar. 19, 2003 CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - Jewelry, crystals and gold-encrusted statues normally fill Luis Pereida's gift shop in downtown Caracas. But his suppliers haven't brought him a shipment in three months, and the store's stock is dwindling.

The problem is a package of currency controls that President Hugo Chavez imposed on Jan. 21 to try to stop the free fall of Venezuela's bolivar. The rules restrict buying of dollars - and without dollars, the distributors who supply Pereida can't buy goods from abroad.

The shortage of greenbacks is beginning to hit business owners hard, and Pereida, for one, is worried.

"If this situation continues, I'll have to close my store," he said.

To try to cushion the blow for importers, the government exchange controls committee, or Cadivi, has declared some 6,000 goods essential - including some food products, medicines, personal hygiene items and industrial raw materials.

Importers of those goods, under the new regulations, will eventually be granted dollars. But as a result of delays in implementing the new system, not one dollar has been granted during the last 57 days.

The delay, coupled with restrictions on imported "luxury" goods like electronic entertainment equipment and jewelry, have many shop owners anxious and confused.

Some are buying dollars on the black market. The bolivar is set at a fixed rate of 1,598 to one dollar but it trades as high as 2,800 to the dollar on the black market.

Eduardo Gines, who owns an electronics store, said his suppliers are either selling inventories or buying black market dollars "because there is no other alternative."

The president of the currency committee, Edgar Hernandez, said Monday the government would begin granting dollars this week.

"We are doing the job as fast as possible," he said.

The currency control committee is supposed to sell $650 million this month, but economic analysts say only a fraction of it will go to the private sector for imports.

"This isn't enough," said Jose Pineda, chief economist at the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce and Industry, or VenAmCham. Importers need at least $800 million month, he said.

Pineda said the only the government is currently importing goods. In order to combat food shortages caused by the lack of available dollars, Chavez's government is importing food and using the military to distribute and sell it at markets for the poor.

Pineda estimates the government could use $400 million of the $650 million Cadavi is slated to grant in March, leaving the rest for importers, students studying abroad and people on business trips.

Imports averaged a bit more than $1 billion a month last year and are expected to fall by roughly half that amount because of the new rules.

Opposition leaders are demanding Chavez agree to early elections, blaming his left-leaning policies for the country's deepening economic crisis.

Chavez blames the economic downturn on his adversaries, who staged a two-month general strike this winter aimed at ousting him. The strike crippled markets, and the bolivar lost a quarter of its value before currency sales were halted.

The former paratrooper, who was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, accuses opponents of leading "an economic coup" to remove him from office. He was briefly overthrown in April, but returned to power two days later.

Amid the turmoil, Fedecamaras, the nation's leading business chamber, said Monday that at least 30,000 businesses could go bankrupt this year.

Venezuela's economy contracted almost 9 percent in 2002, and Fedecamaras predicted that it will shrink another 17 to 36 percent in 2003.

On the Web Venezuelan Currency Administration Committee: www.cadivi.gov.ve

www.latinbusinesschronicle.com BY CHRONICLE STAFF

Argentina and Nicaragua aren´t the only Latin American countries suffering from corruption. The latest survey from Transparency International shows reduced transparency scores in nine countries, while only three nations boosted their transparency.

"In parts of South America, the graft and misrule of political elites have drained confidence in the democratic structures that emerged after the end of military rule,” Peter Steigen, chairman of Transparency International, said in a statement when the results were released.

However, there is also good news: Businesspeople and politicians are increasingly opposing the tradition of corruption. In Nicaragua, President Enrique Bolanos has received widespread attention for his efforts to clean up the corruption of his predecessor Arnoldo Aleman.

But the private sector is also getting involved. In Guarulhos (the second-largest city in the State of Sao Paulo), businessman Luis Roberto Mesquita has succeeded in putting transparency on the agenda. His campaign to get public officials to commit to anti-corruption government had led to increased awareness of the issue and also led to the 1998 ouster of the city´s mayor, Nefí Tales.

Mesquita is now among three recipients of this year´s Integrity Award from Transparency. "Mesquita has taken on the most powerful and corrupt in his city again and again,” Cláudio Weber Abramo, General Secretary of Transparencia Brasil, said in a statement on the award.

Paraguay and Haiti were added to Transparency´s list from last year and managed to rise to the top of the list in terms of worst offenders. Paraguay scored 1.7 (out of ten) and got a global rank of 98 (of 102 nations). Haiti got a score of 2.2 and came in at 89, the same as Bolivia. However, Bolivia managed to show a slight improvement over last year´s score of 2.0.

Argentina and Panama saw the strongest declines in their scores, followed by Guatemala and Venezuela. While many see the growing economic chaos in Argentina as a factor behind increased corruption, the lower scores in Panama were likely caused by scandal tying the government to bribing legislators for their votes.

The Dominican Republic saw the best improvement, although small increases were also noted in Bolivia, Ecuador and - Nicaragua. The latter may be explained by the recent actions taken by Bolanos against Aleman and his cronies.

Chile continues to be the most transparent country in the region, followed by Uruguay and Costa Rica, the survey shows.

The index is based on different surveys from independent institutions looking at how corruption among public officials and politicians are perceived. Transparency International emphasizes that its index does not necessarily reflect the current status of corruption in a country, but rather the perception.

reuters.com Tue March 18, 2003 11:34 PM ET

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, climbing after four days of steep losses that knocked more than 15 percent off a barrel of crude as traders awaited the outcome of a U.S.-led invasion of oil exporter Iraq.

U.S. light crude CLc1 climbed 63 cents to $32.30 a barrel following Tuesday's nine percent decline, which took prices to the lowest level in nine weeks.

London's Brent crude LCOc1 jumped 75 cents to $28.00 a barrel after dropping 7.6 percent in Tuesday's sell off.

Crude markets tumbled $5.50-$7 in the last four trading days as dealers bet on an easy U.S.-led victory over Iraq and minimal disruption to Middle East crude flows, which make up about 40 percent of global oil trade.

The 48-hour ultimatum, delivered late on Monday by President Bush to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, to leave Iraq or face war, pushed prices even lower with traders expecting a military strike in the next few days.

The U.S. deadline for Saddam to leave stands at 8:15 p.m. EST Wednesday.

Saddam rejected Bush's demand for him to go into exile and appeared on Iraqi television to declare his country was ready to repel any invasion that could start in less than 24 hours.

Baghdad denies U.S. allegations that it has built stocks of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons.

"The fall in crude indicates the market is looking beyond war. People are not expecting Saddam to have a scorch-earth policy. This is saying war is going to be short," said Han-Pin Hsi, oil and gas equities analyst at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong.

UPSIDE RISKS REMAIN

Anticipation of a military strike in Iraq, which exports about two million barrels a day of crude, and possible wider disruptions to crude supplies from other Middle East producers, drove U.S. crude close to $40 in February, a whisker below the record of $41.15 set in the build up to the 1990-1991 Gulf War.

During the Gulf War, prices dropped from over $30 to barely $20 when U.S.-led forces launched their early 1991 offensive to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait and it became clear Iraq would not harm oilfields in Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter.

Analysts warned, however, that upside risks remained if Iraq should torch its own oilfields or if the conflict was drawn out.

"If the threat to blow up oilfields is carried out, we would see a savage spike to the upside. We would see sharp price rises probably out to two years forward," said Sydney-based independent oil analyst Simon Games-Thomas.

TEST OF OPEC'S LIMITS

An invasion would almost certainly close Iraqi crude output and southern neighbor, Kuwait, may also be forced to shut some fields near the border with Iraq.

Iraqi exports have already slowed substantially because international oil traders are unwilling to assume the risk on uncertain supplies.

A cold northern winter and prolonged supply hitch from Venezuela have drained commercial stockpiles to historic lows.

Official figures due for release later on Wednesday are expected to show a slight increase of two million barrels in U.S. crude stocks, which are at lows not seen since the mid-1970s and below the 270-million barrel mark that the government considers the minimum for the smooth operation of U.S. refineries.

The OPEC oil cartel has pledged to fill any supply gap caused by war, but many members have already dramatically increased supplies this year and analysts believe any prolonged outage of Iraqi supply, with some impact on Kuwait, would test the group's spare capacity to the limit.

The United States, the world's top oil consumer, has made preparations to release some oil from its strategic reserves to prevent any supply interruption. But the signal to open the taps on these emergency stocks will come only when the government decides a shortage has developed.

Alertas de Robert Alonso Robert Alonso robertalonso2003@cantv.net

Nuestra constitución bolivariana dice por ahí algo así como que si se llegase a declarar forajido a un gobierno, nosotros - los venezolanos - estamos en la OBLIGACIÓN, entre otras cosas, de defender la constitución. Esto plantea dos preguntas tremendamente interesantes: ¿qué se entiende por un gobierno forajido? ¿Ilegal. inconstitucional? Y la otra, ¿cómo se defiende una constitución?

Si algunos de mis lectores constitucionalistas se animan a asesorarme, quisiera que me dijeran si en el supuesto caso, o negado, que al Sr. Chávez - por ejemplo - se le ocurriese meterle mano al FIEM. o, qué se yo, "pasar" una ley de control de cambio sin contar con la Asamblea Nacional. diría yo; o meter preso a un general contrariando sus derechos procesales y constitucionales o -- yendo más allá en mi imaginación hipotética -- firmar un contrato petrolero con algún país hermano sin que lo apruebe el poder legislativo o algo así tan estrambótico como recibir dinero de una entidad bancaria extranjera para financiar una campaña electoral, ¿se podría considerar que el gobierno se "inconstitucionalizó"? En casos tan absurdos y fantasiosos como estos arriba planteados, ¿habría que salir a defender la constitución?

La segunda pregunta es todavía más "pelúa": ¿cómo se defiende una constitución? ¿Con ciclomarchas? ¿Disfrazando a un perro con los colores patrios? ¿Tocando pitos? Pregunto esto porque una noche a Orlando Urdaneta se le ocurrió decirnos en su programa - Titulares de Mañana - que dejáramos el baile terapia, los pitos y las cacerolas y que saliéramos a defender la constitución y al Sr. Vicepresidente - José Vicente Rangel - no le hizo mucha gracia; incluso salió preguntándole al país desde su podium que si Orlando no quería todas esas cosas tan alegres y simpáticas, ¿qué quería?

Y eso mismo me pregunto yo, ¿qué quería Orlando? ¿Será que una constitución se defiende saliendo a las calles de todas las ciudades del país a "comer gallina o a morir arponeado"? Ta'difícil la guarandinga. Difícil porque si un gobernante fuese capaz de hacer algunas de esas cosas hipotéticas que arriba he planteado, no va a quedarse tranquilo ni que salgamos 16 millones de venezolanos a tocarle pitos al mismo tiempo. sería algo así como ponerle una penitencia a Satanás para que nos rece cuatro padrenuestros y siete avemarías. y se dé un baño con agua bendita.

Por favor, les ruego a mis lectores ayuda. Si alguien tiene por ahí una idea de cómo responderme, ya saben mi dirección electrónica. y que el Señor nos coja confesados.

El Hatillo 19 de Marzo de 2003

Robert Alonso robertalonso2003@cantv.net

val.dorta.com

Let me clarify right away. I am not saying that Marxist ideology doesn’t play a role in both leaders’ views of the world. Nor that the Cuban people aren’t suffering because of totalitarianism, or repression, or a communist economy’s chronic incapacity to make bread. I am talking about Latin American culture.

It is clear that I need a lot of help at this time, so let me bring Gabriel García Márquez to my side, somebody who knows more about Latin American culture than most. García Márquez began his career as a journalist in Venezuela in the fifties, during the dictatorship of General Marcos Pérez Jimenez, and has been a close friend of Fidel Castro for many years. In one of his many creative escapes from Marxist ideology, he once said (I am reciting) that “Fidel is not a communist, he is a typical Latin American dictator who has conveniently chosen to wear a communist mantle.” Whether true or not, the phrase has been attributed to him.

In that phrase, the Colombian writer who is justly famous for One Hundred Years of Solitude, a novel that some critics have compared to Cervantes’ Don Quixote, was exposing the kernel of Latin American culture and the source of our best-known contributions to the world: magical-realist novels and the populist dictator typified by General Juan Domingo Perón.

It is not a coincidence that some of the best Latin American novels have dictators as protagonists. Fidel Castro, García Márquez was pointing out, is just a dictator who through the grace of mimicry (and political circumstances) had improved his chances of subjugating a population. On this he is followed closely by his protégé Hugo Chávez, who can also mimic Perón at will, as country after country churns imitators out of the original Argentine mold as well as similar political and economic failures, in a tragic, hopeless and peculiar cloning process. As Venezuelan writer María Sol Pérez Schael says in an excellent article (in Spanish) today, “despite the variety of countries that conform it, Latin America does nothing more than repeat itself. This domino effect is like a sickness that devours us, an uncontrollable mimic that pushes us to identical catastrophes.”

And the sickness has a permanent mantra, because the dictators don’t end their mischief after death. They leave political organizations such as the pathetic Peronist (Justicialist) party of Argentina, of which Pérez Schael cites Jorge Luis Borges’ final judgment: “peronists aren’t good nor bad, they are incorrigible.”

All this, of course, because culture matters, a true assertion that is nonetheless anathema to our fantasyland multicultural liberals.

Posted by Val at March 7, 2003 11:51 AM