By NEELA BANERJEE <a href=www.abs-cbnnews.com>abs-cbnnews.com-The New York Times

When the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met five weeks ago to set its spring export levels, it faced an uncertain world, one clouded by the prospect of a war in Iraq. When it meets again on Thursday, it will face more uncertainty now that the main fighting is over.

Before the war, most of OPEC’s members pumped oil at maximum levels to make up for an expected curb in Iraqi exports -- something that in fact occurred -- and prices moved higher. They had climbed through the winter, not only in expectation of war but also because of political strife in Venezuela and ethnic clashes in Nigeria, and then swung back and forth on news from the battlefronts in Iraq.

On Thursday, the last trading day before the Easter holidays, the price of crude oil rose $1.37, or 4.7 percent, to $30.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Still, OPEC worries that if it does not scale back its extra production soon, oil prices will fall below $20 a barrel, beneath the group’s ideal price range of $22 to $28.

Despite the currently robust prices, OPEC is concerned in large part because of a belief among oil traders, shaped by optimistic forecasts by the US government, that Iraqi exports could resume in weeks. Combined with the additional OPEC production, this reasoning goes, that could create a glut.

Yet most oil experts agree that it is too early to tell when Iraqi exports might return and at what quantities, given the tangle of technical, financial and diplomatic issues that must be sorted out by the American authorities now running Iraq. It is not even clear who might represent Iraq, an OPEC member, at this week’s meeting in Vienna or whether it will even remain in OPEC, a seemingly distant issue that already concerns other members.

Add to the mix the weak global economic recovery and the economic effects of the respiratory illness sars, industry experts say, and it becomes difficult for OPEC to make a sound decision about how much oil to pump.

“It’s very hard now to look at the supply-demand balance,” said Mehdi Varzi, president of Varzi Energy, a consulting firm in London. “The picture is so mixed up with what’s happening in the Middle East still.”

Representatives from the Army Corps of Engineers responsible for repairing oil fields in Iraq have said that some oil exports could start flowing again in weeks. Kurdish leaders who entered the northern oil region near Kirkuk with American soldiers have predicted the same.

But it remains unclear who has the right to export Iraqi oil. Under UN sanctions, Iraq can export its oil only through the oil-for-food program, and the Bush administration is pressing the Security Council to change that agreement so the United States can sell Iraqi oil. When this might happen is unclear.

Also, some Kirkuk fields have been so efficiently ransacked that managers there say it may be several months before they can produce enough oil for export. And it remains unclear who will pay to replace what was looted from Kirkuk to make that possible.

Some OPEC leaders, like Algeria’s oil minister, Chakib Khelil, say the group will most likely rein in extra production to the official quota levels of 24.5 million barrels a day. It is now producing nearly 26 million barrels, according to recent estimates by the Middle East Economic Survey. And Venezuela and Nigeria have resumed degrees of production.

Such a cutback might be enough to calm a market in which many oil traders and buyers think demand will be slack because of the sluggish world economy. In addition, the sars outbreak has already slowed economic growth in Asia and led to a drop in demand for jet fuel by several hundred thousand barrels a day because of a decline in tourism, said Lawrence Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation in New York.

Goldstein warns that there could be perils to a decision by OPEC to reduce output below 24.5 million barrels a day. Inventories of crude oil and gasoline were very low coming into the spring, and they are being replenished rapidly now by the increased OPEC output. But if that process stops, oil and gasoline prices may again rise as the United States, the largest oil consumer by far, enters the summer driving season.

Who will speak for Iraq on Thursday, and try to answer the unanswered questions, remains a mystery. There is no Iraqi government and the United States has yet to announce the structure of an interim oil ministry. Already, some OPEC members and many people in the Middle East worry that under American influence, Iraq could soon leave OPEC to pump a lot of oil on its own.

But Goldstein contends that Iraq can do that and stay in OPEC. While its oil output was determined by UN sanctions, the rest of OPEC took its market share, produced oil in its stead and pocketed the extra revenue.

Now, Goldstein and others say, Iraq might tell OPEC that it will pump as much as it can to make up for those lost years of revenue. Before the war, it produced about 2.8 million barrels a day and exported, legally and otherwise, about two million barrels of that.

“Iraq will produce what it’s capable of producing,” he said, “whether it stays in OPEC or not.”

Please send your comments or feedback to newsfeedback@abs-cbn.com

<a href=reuters.com>Reuters Mon April 21, 2003 10:15 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices held above $30 on Monday ahead of this week's OPEC producer cartel meeting which is expected to tighten crude supplies as fuel demand dips to the lowest point in the year.

U.S. light crude CLc1 in New York stood 18 cents lower at $30.37 a barrel. Trade in Brent crude on London's International Petroleum Exchange was closed for the Easter holiday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna on Thursday for an emergency meeting called after oil dropped about 30 percent in a month as Middle East oil flows escaped severe disruption from war in Iraq.

Oil prices rebounded late last week as Iran called on OPEC, which controls over half world oil exports, to cut official production quotas warning that failure to rein in supply could trigger a price collapse.

Other OPEC members have said tighter compliance to official output limits would probably be enough to avoid a supply glut.

OPEC pumped more than 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) over its self-imposed 24.5 million bpd production ceiling in March as it raised output to counter the loss of Iraqi supply and earlier disruption from a strike in Venezuela.

Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Monday said OPEC's quota busters should be the first to restrain output. "All those that have increased their output in an unusual way, they should also be the first to decrease their production," the Aftab-e Yazd newspaper quoted Zanganeh as saying.

ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

Oil prices have risen back above $30 -- the level that some economists warn can hurt economic growth -- on the month-long absence of Iraq's crude exports, halted since the start of the U.S.-led offensive.

U.S. inventories of crude and refined products are still below normal levels heading toward the U.S. summer vacation driving season when gasoline demand peaks.

"With market attention firmly focused on the forthcoming OPEC meeting, we expect oil prices will remain well supported given recent statements from member countries indicating a desire to curtail physical supply," said Matthew Warburton of UBS Warburg bank in a research note.

The question of Iraq's representation at the OPEC meeting was muddled on Monday, with Jawdat al-Obeidi, a former Iraqi general who says he is deputy governor of post-war Baghdad saying he would lead a delegation to the OPEC meeting.

The U.S. government said it does not recognize Mohammed Mohsen al-Zubaidi, who has declared himself governor of Baghdad, and therefore his deputy cannot represent Iraq at OPEC.

In a sign Iraq's oil sector is beginning a post-war recovery, Iraqi oil officials said on Monday the country's key oil refinery Daura in Baghdad had started operation at half capacity of 40,000 barrels per day.

Watch CBNNewswatch By Dale Hurd CBN News Senior Reporter

U.S. intelligence is still coming to grips with reports that Al Qaeda and other Muslim terrorist groups are setting up bases in Venezuela.

CBN.com – WASHINGTON, D.C. — While America's attention has been focused on Iraq, it may have a growing terrorist threat in this hemisphere, and in a country you might never expect.

On February 13 this year, at London's Gatwick Airport, a Muslim with suspected links to Al Qaeda was arrested after a grenade was found in his luggage. His ticket shows he flew in from Colombia. But it turns out he actually began his journey in Caracas. He was a Venezuelan. And there are reported to be more like him.

U.S. intelligence is still coming to grips with reports that Al Qaeda and other Muslim terrorist groups are setting up bases in Venezuela. A London newspaper reports Osama bin Laden has established a training camp on Venezuela's Margarita Island, a tourist destination that also has an Arab-Muslim community and a bad reputation as a hangout for smugglers and terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

The more you know about Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and his list of friends, the less surprising this all seems. Footage shows Hugo hugging Iranian President Khatami. More footage shows Hugo hugging Libya's Moammar Gaddafy. By the way, you won't find any video of Hugo meeting, much less, hugging George W. Bush.

But Chavez has met with Saddam Hussein. In fact, he was the first foreign leader to visit Baghdad after the first Gulf War, and he expressed his admiration for Saddam. He has offered support to convicted terrorist Carlos "The Jackal." He considers Fidel Castro his mentor. He gives sanctuary to Colombia's FARC rebels, a group that is trying to overthrow the Colombian government and has also killed Americans.

Hugo Chavez came to power by tapping into frustration over Venezuela's corrupt political system. He was elected in 1998 by a landslide. Since then, Chavez has been engaged in what has been called a "slow-motion constitutional coup." He has abolished the senate, brought in Cubans as strike-breakers against the oil industry, and organized gangs to beat up opponents.

Venezuelan opposition leader Omar Garcia-Bolivar said, "He was elected, we respect the fact that he was elected. But then he turned to a non-democratic agenda. He violates the constitution, he encourages violence and so on. We Venezuelans are feeling the violation of human rights, the lack of respect of rule of law, the lack of respect to freedom."

Last December, a former high-level Venezuelan major gave sworn testimony that he personally delivered a million dollars to Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in Afghanistan, on behalf of Chavez. Chavez did not condemn the attacks of 9/11 until his silence became a political issue. Then he called the U.S. attack on Afghanistan "terrorism." But would Chavez be bold enough, or some would say stupid enough, to allow Al Qaeda to operate in Venezuela?

"There's a lot that we don’t know about his motives, a lot that he keeps concealed," said Stephen Johnson, a Latin American specialist at the Heritage Foundation.

Johnson says even though the claims about Al Qaeda in Venezuela have not been verified, he considers them to be highly probable.

"It'd be very easy for them to operate there, and they would not be unwelcome in Venezuela. There's testimony, the testimonial evidence. There's anecdotal evidence. But none of this has really been followed up, and it needs to be," Johnson said.

Garcia-Bolivar said, "The fact that President Chavez has met with Saddam Hussein. The fact that President Chavez has met with Moammar Ghaddafy and Al Khatami…the friendship with Fidel Castro, the fact he has not condemned the guerillas in Colombia, all of those things kind of take you to suspect that there is some kind of connection."

General James Hill, Commander of the U.S. Southern Command, has recently admitted that in Venezuela the U.S. has a new problem on its hands. Some still believe Chavez will have to clean up his act in order to revive Venezuela's oil industry and woo back its biggest customer, the United States. But on the other hand, Chavez has also said that trade agreements with the United States are "the road to Hell."

Johnson said, "Venezuela is one of the more extreme examples of a failed society; of a democracy that's elected a dictator. You look at Venezuela and the chaos there and the kind of government that has begun to take shape under Hugo Chavez, what you would probably remark is that it is Haiti with oil."

Garcia-Bolivar not only agrees, he sees what could be a dire future ahead. He feels most Venezuelans will not stand for the direction Hugo Chavez wants to take the country, which is probably a Cuban-style dictatorship. "It's gonna get worse. And the worst, we believe, is going to be a civil war. A lot of civilians in Venezuela are now believing that the only way out of this situation they have is violence," he said.

Latin American experts say it is time for the United States to pay attention to this potential threat in our hemisphere.

Chavez’s term does not expire until 2006, although he may soon face a referendum. Most of his political opponents do not believe Chavez will ever give up power without a fight.

Watch CBNNewswatch By Dale Hurd CBN News Senior Reporter

U.S. intelligence is still coming to grips with reports that Al Qaeda and other Muslim terrorist groups are setting up bases in Venezuela.

CBN.com – WASHINGTON, D.C. — While America's attention has been focused on Iraq, it may have a growing terrorist threat in this hemisphere, and in a country you might never expect.

On February 13 this year, at London's Gatwick Airport, a Muslim with suspected links to Al Qaeda was arrested after a grenade was found in his luggage. His ticket shows he flew in from Colombia. But it turns out he actually began his journey in Caracas. He was a Venezuelan. And there are reported to be more like him.

U.S. intelligence is still coming to grips with reports that Al Qaeda and other Muslim terrorist groups are setting up bases in Venezuela. A London newspaper reports Osama bin Laden has established a training camp on Venezuela's Margarita Island, a tourist destination that also has an Arab-Muslim community and a bad reputation as a hangout for smugglers and terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

The more you know about Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and his list of friends, the less surprising this all seems. Footage shows Hugo hugging Iranian President Khatami. More footage shows Hugo hugging Libya's Moammar Gaddafy. By the way, you won't find any video of Hugo meeting, much less, hugging George W. Bush.

But Chavez has met with Saddam Hussein. In fact, he was the first foreign leader to visit Baghdad after the first Gulf War, and he expressed his admiration for Saddam. He has offered support to convicted terrorist Carlos "The Jackal." He considers Fidel Castro his mentor. He gives sanctuary to Colombia's FARC rebels, a group that is trying to overthrow the Colombian government and has also killed Americans.

Hugo Chavez came to power by tapping into frustration over Venezuela's corrupt political system. He was elected in 1998 by a landslide. Since then, Chavez has been engaged in what has been called a "slow-motion constitutional coup." He has abolished the senate, brought in Cubans as strike-breakers against the oil industry, and organized gangs to beat up opponents.

Venezuelan opposition leader Omar Garcia-Bolivar said, "He was elected, we respect the fact that he was elected. But then he turned to a non-democratic agenda. He violates the constitution, he encourages violence and so on. We Venezuelans are feeling the violation of human rights, the lack of respect of rule of law, the lack of respect to freedom."

Last December, a former high-level Venezuelan major gave sworn testimony that he personally delivered a million dollars to Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in Afghanistan, on behalf of Chavez. Chavez did not condemn the attacks of 9/11 until his silence became a political issue. Then he called the U.S. attack on Afghanistan "terrorism." But would Chavez be bold enough, or some would say stupid enough, to allow Al Qaeda to operate in Venezuela?

"There's a lot that we don’t know about his motives, a lot that he keeps concealed," said Stephen Johnson, a Latin American specialist at the Heritage Foundation.

Johnson says even though the claims about Al Qaeda in Venezuela have not been verified, he considers them to be highly probable.

"It'd be very easy for them to operate there, and they would not be unwelcome in Venezuela. There's testimony, the testimonial evidence. There's anecdotal evidence. But none of this has really been followed up, and it needs to be," Johnson said.

Garcia-Bolivar said, "The fact that President Chavez has met with Saddam Hussein. The fact that President Chavez has met with Moammar Ghaddafy and Al Khatami…the friendship with Fidel Castro, the fact he has not condemned the guerillas in Colombia, all of those things kind of take you to suspect that there is some kind of connection."

General James Hill, Commander of the U.S. Southern Command, has recently admitted that in Venezuela the U.S. has a new problem on its hands. Some still believe Chavez will have to clean up his act in order to revive Venezuela's oil industry and woo back its biggest customer, the United States. But on the other hand, Chavez has also said that trade agreements with the United States are "the road to Hell."

Johnson said, "Venezuela is one of the more extreme examples of a failed society; of a democracy that's elected a dictator. You look at Venezuela and the chaos there and the kind of government that has begun to take shape under Hugo Chavez, what you would probably remark is that it is Haiti with oil."

Garcia-Bolivar not only agrees, he sees what could be a dire future ahead. He feels most Venezuelans will not stand for the direction Hugo Chavez wants to take the country, which is probably a Cuban-style dictatorship. "It's gonna get worse. And the worst, we believe, is going to be a civil war. A lot of civilians in Venezuela are now believing that the only way out of this situation they have is violence," he said.

Latin American experts say it is time for the United States to pay attention to this potential threat in our hemisphere.

Chavez’s term does not expire until 2006, although he may soon face a referendum. Most of his political opponents do not believe Chavez will ever give up power without a fight.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 21, 2003 By: Becker Yvonne

Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2003 23:00:27 -0400 From: Becker Yvonne smash2707@terra.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Who ruined the Venezuelan economy?

Dear Editor: I just read Oscar Heck's op-ed <a href=www.vheadline.com>Who ruined the Venezuelan economy? Chavez Frias? and my eyes cannot believe what they read.

Heck speaks about the right to eat?

Is Oscar Heck aware that Chavez said “con hambre y sin empleo con Chavez me resteo” which means “hungry and unemployed I support Chavez.”

Does Heck think this means Chavez cares about poor people?

Heck says most of the opposition is middle or high class ... it seems you live in another country than me. If about 20% is upper class (middle class and and rich people), how do you explain that at least 70% of the population opposes Chavez (some say 80%).

Did I miss something in my math classes?

Later Heck says Chavez gives poor people the right to complain about corruption and abuse? Maybe that is about the only right they have, because investigations don’t go any further than the complains. How can he explain the huge amounts of money this government has stolen or misused, and that no one has been convicted for corruption?

Access to good education? I guess that is the reason why public universities are practically broke, and "Bolivarian schools" break down less than three months after being build, and most of them don't give lunch (there is even a video of Chavez asking the students if they already had had lunch and they answer Noooooo!).

I wonder where Heck gets the "access to good education with filled stomachs" line from. He says that if elections are called after the Referendum Chavez would win ... who in his sound mind would think that someone who had just been revoked could run for Presidency? I don’t understand the logic.

I am sorry if I sound harsh.

I am just sick of reading false affirmations made by people who either don't know the Venezuelan reality, or believe what they read without researching any further or are paid by the government to make propaganda for a false revolution ... which has only brought destruction.

I don't deny that there were serious problems when Chavez came to power; but it is also truth that under his government poverty, unemployment, corruption and insecurity have increased. Further, the government seems to support criminality and terrorism, as can clearly be proven by Chavez' defense of murderers like Gouveia or violation of the laws and he Constitution.

Yvonne Becker smash2707@terra.com

Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable  right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. --  Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher  Editor@VHeadline.com