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"Iraq's greatest challenge is an old one" Drafted by Matthew Riemer on May 03, 2003

One of the greatest obstacles facing those attempting to introduce the concept of democracy to Iraq is a problem that is actually centuries old: the complexities of the nation-state. Unlike the fledgling United States and many European regions during the 17th and 18th centuries, the geographical puzzle and political, religious and ethnic arrangement now referred to as Iraq is not -- and really never was -- conducive to the coherent formation of a modern day Western-inspired nation-state.

Not widely discussed is that Iraq is a fusion of three former Ottoman provinces -- Basra, Baghdad and Mosul -- devised by the British in the inter-war period last century. While many regions within modern day Iraq have cultural and historical homogeny, Iraq, unlike, say, Iran, has no distinct history, ethnicity, or language with which to create a national identity in the modern sense. The people who happened to be living in the Ottoman provinces at the time of the British demarcation were many: Arabs and Kurds; Muslims, Christians, and Jews; Shi'a and Sunni.

The events in Iraq over the last three-quarters of a century since its inception as a nation-state have reflected this diversity and the inherent conflict it presents -- a host of coups took place in the late '30s and early '40s and then in 1958 King Faisal II was ousted by army officers; and today, following the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the Ba'ath Party -- pervasive and almost ancient institutions in a country so young -- major political groups within Iraq are moving in disparate ideological directions. The various visions espoused by the different groups follow the traditional lines of religion, ethnicity, geography and occasionally doses of sectarianism.

The Kurds live in the northern part of the country and consider the lands inhabited by their people in Iraq and three bordering countries -- Turkey, Iran, and Syria -- Kurdistan. This de facto ethnic-state, representing a splotch on an ethnographical map, has been the region the Kurds have fought for and from for centuries as a distinct people.

In more recent decades, the Kurds have fought for their own nation-state -- one that would surely exclude most of current day Iraq -- insofar as they desire complete independence and absolute self-rule. The Kurds are primarily interested in their own sovereignty and any commitment to a greater Iraq is secondary. Because of this, the greater Kurdish movement, outside of its many parties, is fundamentally one aimed at an ethnic-state -- not one that is ethnically exclusive but simply with a single ethnicity as its defining quality.   The only appeal for the Kurds of a "democratic Iraq" -- aside from the fact that such a situation precludes the existence of Saddam Hussein -- is an increase in regional independence and, perhaps, power, not necessarily an integrated Kurd-Arab political entity called Iraq, which would surely contain many elements competitive with if not hostile to Kurdish interests.

The Shi'a Muslims, on the other hand, seek political legitimacy through their religion, Shi'a Islam, and its tenets. The Shi'a, though Muslims like the Kurds, conceptualize a religious-state rather than one based on ethnicity. This subtle yet significance difference is manifest in the desire for an Islamic Republic by many Shi'a, which -- depending on one's view -- the Iranian revolution of 1979 establishes both an inspirational and frightening precedent for. An Islamic Republic founded within Iraq would symbolize the aspirations of the religion-state, one where religious affiliation is the primary defining characteristic and form of identity.

The Shi'a Muslims of central and southern Iraq are also spiritually aligned with Iran. The United States has already warned of "outsiders" interfering with Iraq's political rebirth and has directly mentioned Iran regarding the matter; the Ayatollah Khomeini also spent time in Iraq at Najaf during his exile under Iranian dictator Mohammad Reza Shah. Washington has now commented on the fact that they underestimated the organizational skills of the Shi'a and are wary of what may arise.

Sheikh Abd-Jabbur Manhell, head of the Baghdad office of the Society of Honorable Scholars of Najaf, a Shi'a group, is quoted by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty as saying: "We won't rush to declare a Jihad against Americans; we'll wait and see if the U.S. sincerely wants a free and democratic Iraq. If it's up to the Iraqi people to choose their own government, I'm sure that up to 70 percent of the Iraqi population will want an Islamic state."

Secular Arabs and Western administrators represent a third stream that seeks to reconcile the many differences and create an integrated government in which all interested parties are fairly represented. This approach, however, sometimes ignores the fact that many Iraqis don't primarily think of themselves as "Iraqis" and that Iraq itself contains the perfect elements for the emergence of competing regional powers.

Many of these individuals are aligned with the United States and are intimate with the concept of the nation-state as perceived by Washington policy makers. Ahmed Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), is one of these people. His group has received tens of millions of dollars in funds from the United States and is enthusiastically approved of by the Pentagon. Because of this relationship, many Iraqis are suspicious of the Western educated Chalabi and his intentions now that he's returned to Iraq after a decades-long absence. On April 28th, RFE/RL described Chalabi's organization's offices: "The INC occupies an impressive building of the Iraqi Hunting Club in Baghdad's prestigious Mansur neighborhood, once favored by top members of the former regime. Now, hundreds of the INC's camouflaged men, called the Free Iraqi Forces, stand at checkpoints around Baghdad."

Jay Garner, the U.S. civil administrator in Iraq, is also a key political figure in the proceedings. Garner, with his Western background, is also a member of this third group that has the most unified vision for Iraq -- one based upon neither ethnicity nor religious affiliation but upon a political, administrative, and economic whole. Garner recently said, "The reason I am here and General Tim Cross, my deputy, is here is to create an environment in Iraq which will give us a process to start a democratic government, which represents all people, all religions, all tribes, all the ethnics, all professions, and to begin that process so that we can have a government that represents the freely elected will of the people."

So there are three very different, powerful groups within Iraq all pulling the country in politically dissimilar directions. Members of each at times will seemingly reconcile their differences, but the fundamental schisms between the various ideologies are great. It is these conditions, the same ones that have prevented Iraq from becoming a coherent nation-state, that will be the same ones encountered and indeed that may prevent the infusion of Iraq with some kind of Jeffersonian Democracy. Religion, race, and idealistic integration are all still battling each other in the philosophies and hearts of the new and old Iraqi policy makers.

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. PINR seeks to inform rather than persuade. This report may be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast provided that any such reproduction identifies the original source, www.pinr.com. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com.

Con esto que si hay referendo o no, elecciones generales o no, consultivo o no… incluso nueva constituyente o no, nos están “guaraleando” cual pez aguja cualquiera, trasnochado y agüevoneado.  El fin es el mareo colectivo mientras, entre otras sutilezas, oficiales CASTRO-COMUNISTAS como el General Rogelio – “Eo” – García cumple con su misión en Venezuela de llenarnos de “enfermeros”, “entrenadores”, “maestros”, etc, quienes cuando llegue el momento se quitarán sus respectivos disfraces y se pondrán el uniforme verde olivo que tanto odian en países como Zimbabwe, Angola, Namibia, Grenada, Afganistán, entre otros. 

Los guarales que emplea el gobierno son diversos y muy pintorescos.  La introducción de un recurso de interpretación ante el Tribunal Supremo de Justicia pudiera considerarse un guaral muy efectivo. El cuento ese que habla del interés que tiene el régimen de conformar un CNE, es otro guaral de alto calibre.  La mesa de negociaciones y acuerdos es o ha sido – sin duda – un IMPRESIONANTE guaral… y el “mequetrefero” del referendo revocatorio es el padre de todos los guarales.

Pero una cosa es que nos “guaralee” el incipiente régimen CASTRO-COMUNISTA de los señores Hugo Chávez y Fidel Castro y otra – muy lamentable y diferente – es que nos “autoguaraleemos”, es decir: que el “guaraleo” venga de nosotros mismos.  Algo así como si el propio pez apretara el botoncito del “reel” para que el nylon ruede libremente y cuando ya se sienta suficientemente cansado, él mismo se prense.  ¡No era nada lo del ojo y lo llevaba en la mano…!

Ya salió por ahí el Sr. Salas Römer con una versión carabobeña del “autoguaraleo”.  Según él habrá elecciones generales dentro de seis meses y no se quiere quedar como la guayabera: ¡por fuera!  Él espera agarrar aunque sea fallo.  A estas alturas se me hace ya imposible saber si es o se hace.  El otro cuarto, el de “Toño” Ledesma, está por alquilarse… no aguanta una pedidita para lanzarse a unas elecciones de Logroño, que no serán elecciones ni serán un carrizo.

Las otras noches me tuve que meter un Valium de 1000 mg cuando en algún programa de opinión de la televisión -- creo que fue en “Aló Ciudadano” -- el gandhiniano mayor, Elías Santana, nos mostraba todo un cronograma de leyes y proyectos muy organizados, coherentes, pacíficos, constitucionales y civilizados para sacudirnos a Chávez y reconstruir la patria – cual República de Utopía -- el cual ameritó el acompañamiento de un violinista gitano importado de Budapest para que el cuadro tuviera un efecto estupendamente “comemierdano”.   Don Tomás Moro se quedó microscópico al lado de este buen amigo pacifista y poeta.

En fin, cada quien es libre de atracarse con lo que mejor le parezca o con lo que primero encuentre.   A mí que me lo den con un poco de “kroitter Butter Café de París”, para soñar que estamos en la “Cuarta República” y pasaba un fin de semana aburriéndome en Ginebra.

Seguimos en lo mismo.  Ni va a haber elecciones generales ni parciales ni la cabeza de un guanajo… ni el Sr. Santana tendrá la oportunidad siquiera de enterarse por qué llora el niño y si no nos ponemos pilas, las manzanas brillarán por su ausencia en un mar de felicidad lleno de gorgojos podridos que se lo calará – si acaso -- la mamá de Tarzán.

A mis lectores les digo que vayan preparando sus pertrechos para cuando nos llegue el inevitable y necesario momento del “guarimbeo” porque entre estos ñángaras quien menos puja, puja un piano de cola… y abierto.

Un muy fuerte, solidario, radical y “guarimboso” abrazo desde mi nueva “guarimba” en las cercanías de la ciudad de Caracas, a los 6 días del mes de mayo de 2003

ROBERT ALONSO robertalonso2003@cantv.net

La colección completa de artículos y ensayos

By Diane Lindquist UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER May 2, 2003

Jeffrey Davidow, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, has been selected to lead the Institute of the Americas, an independent institution at UCSD that promotes relations among the United States, Canada and Latin America.

The selection was confirmed yesterday by institute founder and board member Theodore E. Gildred.

"He's going to take the institute to a new level," Gildred said. "He wants to bring some new programs that will broaden the scope. He's going to bring a fresh overview."

Davidow, who will become the institute's president in June, succeeds Paul H. Boeker, a former ambassador to Jordan and Bolivia who directed the institute for 14 years. Boeker had announced his retirement before his unexpected death in late March of a brain tumor.

Davidow often visited San Diego when he was ambassador to Mexico and has already met many of the cross-border region's leaders.

"He's an incredible choice," said James Clark, director of the Mexico Business Center at the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce. "I think he sees San Diego as the gateway or linchpin to all of Latin America. I can't imagine that they could have chosen anyone better qualified."

Davidow, one of only three people designated as "career ambassadors," will leave the Foreign Service after 35 years in international diplomacy.

He currently is a visiting fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government and the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard. He served as U.S. ambassador to Mexico for four years under former President Bill Clinton and 11/2 years under President George W. Bush before leaving in September 2002.

Davidow also was assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs and U.S. ambassador to Zambia and Venezuela. Over the course of his career, he was posted to South Africa, Zimbabwe, Guatemala and Chile.

"I hope to bring to the institute 35 years of experience in government, most of that dedicated to improving relations between the United States and Latin America," Davidow said yesterday by telephone from Harvard.

He said looks forward to continuing that effort as president of the Institute of the Americas and to promoting greater ties and a synergy with the University of California San Diego and its Latin American studies programs.

"Obviously, quality of life in San Diego was an important factor, too," he said.

The Chamber's Clark predicted Davidow will be a major figure on the scene, especially since his duties include fund raising.

The nonprofit institute serves as a catalyst for promoting development and cooperation, especially through the private sector, to improve the economic and social well-being of the people of the Americas.

It has a modest endowment of $7 million, Gildred said, mostly supplied by such corporate members as BP International, Grupo Inversión, McKinsey & Co. and Sempra Energy International.

Gastón Luken Sr. of GE Capital Mexico, the Institute of the Americas' board chairman, predicted that Davidow's familiarity with current events and political and business leaders in the Americas will prove invaluable to the organization.

"The situation in Latin America right now is going through a transition, and Latin America will come back on scene very soon," Luken said. "(Davidow) has a very valuable background, but more importantly, he has a vision of the future."

Diane Lindquist: (619) 293-1812; diane.lindquist@uniontrib.com

By Melissa Davis Staff Reporter 05/02/2003 11:26 AM EDT

Former underdog ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) is starting to look like big oil's hottest star.

After a series of misfires -- including a disastrous shot at energy trading -- ChevronTexaco jumped past some sizzling competitors to deliver the biggest upside surprise of the quarter.

The energy giant, which became the nation's second-largest oil company through a merger in 2001, reported first-quarter profits of $1.99 per share that toppled Wall Street expectations by 18 cents. All together, the company reported first-quarter profits of $1.92 billion that more than doubled profits of $725 million one year ago.

The stock jumped $1.10 to $64.10 on the news.

"They had everything going against them last year," said Fahnestock analyst Fadel Gheit, who recommends buying the stock and owns shares in the company himself. "But now, they're firing on all cylinders. They did much better than the other majors."

West Is Best

Like its competitors, ChevronTexaco benefited from soaring energy prices pushed higher by the war in Iraq and disruption in Venezuela. But the company's success was amplified by its industry-leading leverage to both energy prices and refinery margins in the West Coast. Those same focuses, combined with a doomed foray into energy trading, hammered ChevronTexaco during the unfavorable conditions that followed the company's merger.

A year ago, Gheit said, ChevronTexaco was reeling from hurricane damage in the Gulf of Mexico, government blackmailing in foreign locations and -- most notably -- a bad $3 billion bet on energy trader Dynegy (DYN:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis).

"Investor confidence has been shot," he admitted. "Hopefully, they're on the right track now."

CEO Dave O'Reilly insists that's the case. He pointed to ChevronTexaco's recent quarter as evidence of a turnaround.

"The first quarter's financial results were the best since our merger in late 2001," O'Reilly said. "Taken together, the first quarter financial results, our recent operational successes and the longer-term initiatives combine to underscore our company's solid foundation and the significant potential to create value for our stockholders."

Running the Table The company's performance improved almost across the board during the quarter. Overall sales surged 47% to $31 billion. Upstream profits, generated from exploration and production, jumped 73% to $1.97 billion. Meanwhile, the company's refinery unit -- where margins can be hurt by higher oil prices -- actually swung from a $61 million loss to a $315 million profit.

Only ChevronTexaco's chemical division, which generally contributes less than 5% to the company's bottom line, weathered a drop-off. There, profits tumbled from $15 million to $3 million during the quarter.

"Chemicals are universally weak right now," Gheit explained. "But they'd rather take that any time. They're happy to get the higher [energy] prices."

Meanwhile, the company continues to benefit from merger-related synergies. So far, Chevron and Texaco have saved $2 billion by combining forces.

But despite the company's progress, the stock continues to languish. The shares actually commanded 30% more during ChevronTexaco's difficult period a year ago.

Still, Gheit believes the stock could jump 20% to a fairer valuation of $75 a share. In the meantime, he points out that ChevronTexaco pays the highest-yielding dividend of the majors.

Roughly half of the analysts following ChevronTexaco recommend that clients buy the stock. On average, analysts expect the stock to go to $70 a share.

Shares of Chevron were trading at $64.71, up $1.71, or 2.71%.

Fri May 2, 2003 08:26 AM ET By Steve Slater

LONDON, May 2 (<a href=reuters.com>Reuters) - A sharp fall by Anglo-Dutch consumer products giant Unilever ULVR.L helped cut gains for Britain's leading shares on Friday, as investors continued to fret about the brittle economy.

But support was provided by strong oil stocks after record profits from Shell SHEL.L and firm drugs stocks such as Shire Pharmaceuticals SHP.L after this week's buoyant results.

By 1200 GMT the FTSE 100 index .FTSE was up 13.1 points, or 0.3 percent, at 3,893.2, back from an early peak of 3,911.1. Volume was light ahead of a three-day UK holiday weekend and doubts about near-term direction.

Unilever shares fell 6.8 percent after the company reported a slim two percent rise in first-quarter profits and said earnings and sales of its top brands fell short of forecasts -- hit by poor sales in March, especially in North America.

Analysts said the figures heightened the twin concerns that consumer spending has slowed and corporate earnings growth in the first quarter has mainly been on the back of reduced expectations and cost cutting, rather than underlying growth.

"There's still caution about earnings forecasts for this year and next. While that scepticism prevails, investors will be quite cautious about re-rating markets that are already trading above long-term averages," said Alex Scott, analyst at Seven Investment Management.

Scott said a rally by equities in April was achieved despite continued weak economic data. "Unless we see a pick up soon it will be hard for markets to pick up from here," he said.

After weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing and jobs numbers and signs of a cooling in the UK housing market, the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data at 1230 GMT is likely to dictate the early mood on Wall Street.

BUMPER OIL, DRUGS PROFITS

Shell was the latest oil major to report record quarterly profits, as the war in Iraq, civil unrest in Nigeria and strikes in Venezuela stoked crude oil prices.

Shell added one percent after its first quarter net profit adjusted for one-off items almost doubled to $3.9 billion, above the range of analysts' expectations. BP BP.L rose 0.9 percent.

But defence contractor BAE Systems BA.L fell 4.6 percent, which dealers came after stockbroker Cazenove cut its rating on the company to "reduce".

Among smaller companies, holiday firm MyTravel MT.L leapt 30 percent after it reported a drop in bookings but said it saw signs of recovery as war in Iraq ends, which also helped lift First Choice FCD.L shares three percent.

(Additional reporting by Keiron Henderson)