www.miami.com Posted on Tue, Feb. 25, 2003 By RICK HURD Contra Costa Times (Walnut Creek, Calif.)

PHOENIX - Ramon Hernandez had only one thing on his mind when he hopped on a plane and headed home to Venezuela this winter. He said he wanted to wipe away the memory of a disappointing 2002 season.

"I just wanted to forget it," he said. "Sometimes, that's just the best thing you can do."

He had no idea how easy that would be. Hernandez's winter was marked by snapshots of fights in the streets, protests in the capital, long lines for gas and food, military marches and general unrest.

Turned out the only thing on his mind was keeping his family safe.

"It was sad, very sad," he said. "I've never seen anything like it before. I hope I never see it again."

What Hernandez witnessed was a crippling nationwide strike that nearly tore apart his country. Workers throughout Venezuela went on strike to protest the policies of president Hugo Chavez, and the fallout was tumultuous.

Violence erupted in Venezuela in December, shortly after the strike began. The importing and distribution of gasoline and oil is a huge industry in Venezuela, Hernandez said, and the strike left the country with a huge shortage.

Thus, he said, workers in other industries who relied on gas were unable to earn money.

"You'd see hundreds and hundreds of people lined up for gas. It might take two or three days to get some," Hernandez said. "But if you drove a taxi, then you can't work. So people like that would go hungry. There were lots of people in my country who couldn't get food."

Hernandez wasn't one of them. He said the country's baseball players are considered among the elite citizens of Venezuela and that he "had ways around" the mess that was causing so much misery. But the violence that resulted wasn't lost on him.

"I'd turn on the TV, and you'd see the army marching in the capital city (of Caracas), and you'd see fights between (Chavez's) supporters and opponents breaking out all over the place," he said. "It was very scary."

So scary, Hernandez said, that his family rarely left its home. Hernandez said his home was several miles on the outskirts of any big city, and that his neighborhood was relatively safe.

"But you couldn't take any chances," he said. "You never knew where it might be dangerous."

That point hit home early in December, when a fellow major league became a victim. Houston Astros outfielder Richard Hidalgo was shot in the left arm during a carjacking attempt in early December.

"It's a scary thing, what happened to him," Hernandez said. "It could've happened to anyone."

The turmoil also wrecked something else that was so close to Hernandez's heart. The Venezuelan winter league was canceled after only two weeks, because adequate security to protect the players couldn't be found. Hernandez had been named the league's MVP in 2001.

Thus, he said, the dawn of spring training was more welcome than ever. He reported to Arizona with his wife, Bellatrix, and son, Randy, but the rest of his extended family remains in Venezuela.

"I was glad to get started," he said. "I talked to family, and they say things are getting much better down there. It was getting better before I left, so hopefully it keeps going in that direction."

As for baseball, Hernandez said he hopes his offense moves in a better direction this season, too. He hit only .233 after signing a four-year, $9.5 million contract in March. He hit just seven home runs after totaling 29 over the previous two seasons.

"Hey, guys have bad years sometimes," manager Ken Macha said. "Hopefully, that was one of his. But that still doesn't take away from the work he did for us handling our pitching staff. He's as big a reason for our pitchers' success as any. As long as he keeps doing that, we'll be happy."

Hernandez seems happy already. He said he has put the memory of 2002 out of his mind. And he said the memory of his 2002 winter will be a nice reminder that some things are more important than batting averages.

Posted: Tuesday, February 25, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: The Presidency of Hugo Chavez has become a runaway train in the process of jumping the tracks. The derailment is taking place on national TV. Movie-goers will surely remember the collapse of Humphrey Bogart as the paranoid captain in "The Caine Mutiny" or that of Jack Nicholson as the sadistic officer in "A Few Good Men," under the implacable questioning of Tom Cruise. Whoever saw and heard Chavez last Sunday, February 23, will know exactly what I mean.

After saying that the President of Fedecamaras, Carlos Fernandez, had been well-treated, he added: "The criminal will be punished." He forgot that the Constitution stipulates that a citizen is innocent until proven guilty. The President of a country can not render a verdict on a citizen before the judicial system. Only the dictators do that. He was applying undue pressure on the judge who would have to pass a sentence on Fernandez. Justice my eye...

• But the opinions on Fernandez were only the "appetizers." The main course was made up of the scoldings Chavez gave to Cesar Gaviria, the secretary general of the OAS; to Colombian President Alvaro Uribe; to President Bush and to the  Spanish Head of Government Aznar.

Wearing a purple shirt, eyes invisible behind narrow slits, voice trembling with rage, Chavez said to Gaviria: "You were President once ... occupy your proper place... instead of meddling in our affairs," forgetting that Gaviria was in Venezuela as representative of the Western Hemisphere Community of Nations.

To Colombia President Uribe he said: "Go and work on your internal problems instead of criticizing our independent country," forgetting that he has made friends with the Colombian guerrillas, those murderers and drug traffickers. He warned both Aznar and Bush that "Venezuela is an independent country" forgetting that USA and Spain are members of the 'Group of Friends' recognized by his government to facilitate a solution to the political crisis created by his outlandish attitude.

This explosion came after violations of human rights and the Constitution had clearly taken place in the case of Carlos Fernandez. Our Constitution stipulates that any citizen who is arrested will have the right to communicate immediately with family and lawyers. Fernandez was incommunicado for ten hours, during which his family did not know where he was.

Fernandez was kidnapped because:

1. The people taking him broke into the restaurant and were not identifiable as policemen.
2. They arrived in taxis, not official vehicles.
3. They carried no arrest order.
4. They roughed Fernandez up.
5. No proper judicial representative accompanied the men.

I will tell my readers something else. The "judge" who sent the men to get Fernandez, Mikael Moreno, is a murderer ... he has killed two persons already. After he served a short prison term for his second killing he studied Law in a disreputable Caracas University. He became the defender of Killer Richard Penalver, one of the murderers of 17 people on April 11. He never did any post graduate studies ... which are mandatory to become a judge. Nevertheless he was appointed judge by the government. This man is no proper judge but a gangster.

Last Saturday, half a block from where I live, one Metropolitan Police officer was killed with a shot in the back and seven others wounded by a group of urban guerrillas stationed in PDVSA's headquarters in La Campina ... the same group I have mentioned several times before. Tuesday morning, two powerful explosive devices went off in front of the Colombian and Spanish consulate and embassy in Caracas.

The government train has jumped the tracks ... Chavez is a man in urgent need of psychiatric treatment but he does not know it, and his followers do not dare to tell him.

Ahead we see increasing turmoil, possible early elections or ... if this is blocked by Chavez ... civil war!

 Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.  In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort.  You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email ppcvicep@telcel.net.ve

news.moneycentral.msn.com February 25, 2003 3:46:00 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Volatile oil prices pulled back from two-year peaks on Tuesday after the United States said it would act quickly to release oil from strategic reserves if needed to offset any supply disruptions in the event of war with Iraq.

The remarks by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham prompted a retreat from large gains triggered by huge demand for heating oil in the United States, where cold weather and low inventories have pumped fuel prices to record highs.

U.S. light crude for delivery in April fell 42 cents to $36.06 -- still some 70 percent above prices at the same time last year. London's Brent crude dropped 83 cents to $32.32 a barrel after earlier setting a fresh 27-month high at $33.94.

Abraham said the United States was ready to act quickly to release emergency oil reserves if necessary to offset any disruption to Middle East supplies -- which account for 40 percent of the world's oil exports -- in the event of war with Iraq.

He said Washington could release supplies on its own, but any decision would be made in consultation with Washington's partners in the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy watchdog for industrialized countries.

The IEA said earlier that the strategic reserves of its members would only be used as a last resort should war break out and producers fail to take up any supply shortfall.

Earlier, March U.S. heating oil prices surged to a record high of $1.18 a gallon and U.S. natural gas futures set all-time peaks as frigid conditions prevailed over the U.S. Northeast, stoking demand for heating fuels.

A 12-week strike in nearby Venezuela has run down U.S. oil inventories. U.S. stocks of distillates, which include heating oil, are running more than 30 percent below year-ago levels. Analysts predict further declines when the government releases its weekly fuel report on Wednesday.

Oil prices are expected to hold strong as traders remain reluctant to sell oil ahead of any attack on Iraq, which normally exports around 4 percent of internationally traded oil.

The United States, Britain and Spain submitted a new draft resolution to a polarized U.N. Security Council on Monday that said Iraq had missed a ``final opportunity'' to disarm peacefully and avoid war.

No vote is expected for two weeks, but the resolution opens an intensive period of diplomacy and its adoption would be a green light for war.

France and Germany have come out strongly against the U.S.-British draft and have circulated a rival proposal to the United Nations that would extend weapons inspections for at least four months. Russia and China back the French proposal.

news.ft.com By Rebecca Bream in London and Carola Hoyos in New York Published: February 25 2003 19:26 | Last Updated: February 25 2003 19:26

Spencer Abraham, the US energy secretary, attempted to calm oil market nerves on Tuesday, saying that the US would release some of the country's strategic oil reserves in the event of war with Iraq.

The world's oil stocks have fallen to historically low levels and commercial oil producers are facing supply problems. Those arguing for the release of strategic oil reserves - held in countries such as the US and Japan - fear that these factors could further inflate the price of oil.

"We will and can act quickly to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to fortify efforts by producers to offset any severe disruption if needed," said Mr Abraham, speaking at a senate energy committee hearing in Washington.

Crude oil prices fell by more than 30 cents immediately after Mr Abraham's comments, but US prices soon shot back up.

In midday trade, April crude oil futures on NYMEX rose 27 cents to $36.75 a barrel. In London the April Brent future price stayed lower, down 22 cents at $32.93 per barrel.

Oil prices recently hit their highest level in more than two years, boosted by a so-called war premium under which the market has priced in potential risks to the oil supply posed by a second Gulf war. The price has also been kept high by a surge in demand for heating oil caused by a cold winter in the US.

Analysts were sceptical about whether releasing strategic stocks would make any difference to the oil price. Steve Turner, oil analyst at Commerzbank in London, said: "Only the removal of uncertainty about whether there will be a war is going to calm this market."

The oil market is not only facing possible supply problems in the Gulf region but analysts are also worried about the political situation in oil-rich Nigeria. They says that, if strike action disrupts output in other countries, as it has done in Venezuela, there is no safety net for oil supplies.

Mr Abraham's move towards releasing US oil reserves followed a speech by Claude Mandil, the director of the International Energy Agency, warning against using reserves too soon.

Mr Mandil told a conference at the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London that Opec had assured the agency, which controls the west's oil reserves, that it would raise oil output to offset any disruption in production caused by war.

"I believe that the producers should act first. Reliance on strategic reserves should be a last resort," said Mr Mandil. But he acknowledged that Opec had already raised its production to mitigate the effects of the general strike in Venezuela and that it could not be relied on to fill all possible gaps in world supply.

During the first Gulf war in 1991, the agency was criticised for releasing strategic oil reserves too late in the conflict which, some said, led to an overinflated oil price.

www.upi.com By Owain Johnson From the International Desk Published 2/25/2003 2:33 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela, Feb. 25 (UPI) -- President Hugo Chavez once famously noted that Venezuela and Cuba are sailing together in the Sea of Happiness. This might well be true. Certainly, all the signs are that Venezuelans might want to brush up their raft-making skills.

Chavez's leftist government and the opposition remain at odds despite intensive international mediation efforts. Meanwhile, 90 percent of Venezuelans told a recent poll they believe that the economic situation is "grave," and 43 percent said it will worsen still further.

Those 43 percent are the smart ones. The prospects for the oil-rich country, once nicknamed Saudi Venezuela, are so awful that some businesses are even looking to relocate to Colombia. Despite being in the midst of a brutal 39-year civil war, many business owners now believe Colombia is actually more stable and business-friendly than Chavez's Venezuela.

"I know there are some companies that are already on three-month standby notice to leave the country," said Danay Zoppi, the president of the Association of Chemical Producers. "Businesses have cut salaries by as much as 30 percent and many are working four-day weeks."

Venezuela used to be a magnet for economic migrants from Colombia and nearby Caribbean islands, but the giant lines outside the American, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese embassies show Venezuela now as a country of would-be emigrants.

(Admittedly, the long line has disappeared at least briefly at the Spanish embassy, which was bombed Tuesday by attackers who identified themselves as members of the Simon Bolivar Urban Militia Coordinator and the Bolivarian Liberation Force. Leaflets found at the scene of the embassy and the Colombian consulate, the other target, accused the two countries of intervening in Venezuelan affairs -- comments similar to those made by Chavez on Sunday. Government supporters blamed the attacks on opposition groups trying to poison world opinion against Chavez.)

Venezuelans with no foreign escape route in place are preparing for a very rocky ride over the next few months. The opposition's recent two-month general strike delivered the coup de grace to a sickly economy and left the country facing an economic meltdown that is likely to lead to serious shortages of many basic goods.

Venezuela is highly reliant on imports, but the strike closed ports and affected the oil production that pays for most of the imports. In response, the government has imposed strict currency controls and price restrictions on basic goods.

Producers are still supplying retailers from their pre-strike stocks, but once these are exhausted, the prospects are grim. Even in a best-case scenario, it will take several weeks for new imports to arrive. Importers face long waits to get clearance and dollars from the authorities before they can order goods that must then be brought from the United States, Asia or Europe.

"There will be a gap," warned Sergio Sesti, the general manager of importer S.F.C. "In the two months of the strike, companies used up all their stock, and if it takes 30 to 45 days to get approval to import, then it will be May before any shipments reach us."

At the moment the import situation is only affecting those high-end consumers, whose pets prefer to eat imported brands and who like the occasional dram of imported whisky.

But as Sesti notes, import problems mean many essentials could vanish from supermarket shelves within weeks, while shortages of raw materials could force large swathes of industry to shut down, throwing still more Venezuelans out of work.

In a country that already averages a murder every 10 minutes on weekends, these potential shortages are likely to prove a recipe for looting and violence.

The likely political consequences of any serious disturbances are the subject of intense speculation. Some believe an upsurge in street violence could force the military or the international community to intervene to restore order and oblige Chavez to call elections. Others believe, however, that any disturbances would strengthen Chavez's position by justifying the imposition of a state of emergency.

Critics say Chavez is already moving towards authoritarian rule. Last week, he personally approved the controversial arrest of opposition leader Carlos Fernandez, the head of a business association that had helped organize the general strike.

The president has also said that his government has allowed the opposition to set the political agenda for far too long. In recent speeches, Chavez has told supporters that 2003 will be the decisive year for his "Bolivarian revolution" in favor of the poor.

"We have stopped being on the defensive and now we are going on the attack," Chavez said in a recent speech. "Every Venezuelan should keep this powerful idea, this powerful belief in their heart: this will be the victorious attack of the Bolivarian offensive."

Venezuelans waiting for his "victorious attack" are flocking to embassies and stocking their cupboards. They know all too well that there are likely to be plenty of storms ahead before the country reaches the president's Sea of Happiness.