www.miami.com Posted on Mon, Feb. 24, 2003 MIKE SEEMUTH

Businesses employing a mobile workforce represent a major market for restricted coach-class airline fares that won't be refunded if the passenger cancels the trip.

Still, businesses are very much in the market for refund policies that make changes in travel plans less costly, especially now. Talk of a possible war with Iraq has led road warriors to take defensive action by trying to minimize the cost of delayed or canceled business trips.

Paying a premium price for a refundable, first-class airline seat is one way to minimize the cost of canceling a business trip. But buying insurance with trip-cancellation coverage often can afford the same protection at lower cost, said Scott Shadrick, president of Coral Gables travel agency TraveLeaders.

Do the math. A business-class seat on an international flight can cost thousands of dollars more than an economy-class seat. By contrast, insurance policies with trip-cancellation coverage, medical benefits and other goodies generally cost less than $250 per trip, according to InsureMyTrip.com, a Web site that compares travel-insurance policies and premiums.

For example, a $96 policy from a company called Access America provides emergency medical and dental benefits, baggage delay insurance and coverage up to $1,500 of expenses due to trip cancellation or interruption.

Covered causes include terrorist acts in the destination cities of the insured, along with ``strikes, natural disasters or bad weather resulting in the complete cessation of services by the airline, the tour operator or the cruise line for at least 24 consecutive hours.''

As with other types of coverage, travel insurance policies have exclusions, and among those in the Access America policy is the list of covered air carriers, including American Airlines and many other U.S. carriers but excluding United Airlines and all foreign airlines.

Some policies restrict their coverage geographically to exclude countries for which the U.S. Department of State has issued a travel warning, as it has for Colombia and Venezuela.

Another way to minimize the cost of last-minute changes in business travel plans is to book rooms at hotels with lenient cancellation policies.

For example, HoteLeaders.com, an online booking service partially owned by TraveLeaders of Coral Gables, allows customers to cancel reservations at any of 7,000 hotel rooms, without charge, up until 6 p.m. on the scheduled day of arrival. ''It's the most liberal cancellation policy in the industry,'' Shadrick said.

Compared with individual business travelers, business meeting planners face astronomically greater risk on the geopolitical front. Hotel charges for failure to draw adequate attendance at business meetings, conventions and trade shows can run into tens of thousands of dollars.

InterContinental Hotels & Resorts responded to current market conditions by eliminating cancellation and attrition charges for meetings booked by April 30, and staged by the end of the year, at one of its properties.

''We understand the increased need for face-to-face meetings during these challenging economic times,'' InterContinental said in a company statement. ``However, we also recognize the uncertainty many may have in booking meetings and committing funds.''

ECONOMY-CLASS FLEXIBILITY, UK-STYLE

Usually it takes an extraordinary event, such as the Sept. 11 attacks or the recent heavy snowstorms in the Northeast, to make airlines waive their usual customer penalties for reservation changes and cancellations.

But British Airways seems to have decided that war jitters alone are enough to bend usual rules.

British Airways has temporarily waived charges certain economy-class customers once paid to change reservations or destinations on long-haul flights. The airline's new program applies to economy class reservations booked by March 17 for travel by year-end, which passengers can alter at no charge until May 31.

The bad news is, the temporary program applies only to BA tickets purchased in Britain. And there are no current plans to extend the program to the U.S. market.

MARKET SHARE UNAFFECTED HERE

American Airlines may be losing money but it isn't losing market share in Miami. Fresh traffic data for Miami International Airport show that American and its commuter cousin, American Eagle, accounted for 55.7 percent of the Miami airport's passenger traffic in calendar year 2002, up from 53.7 percent in 2001.

Contact Mike Seemuth at humidity@aol.com.

Warsaw Business Journal www.wbj.pl 24th Feb 2003

As war drums beat louder in the potential Iraqi war zone, analysts and budget watchers began to worry over the potential impact of further hikes in oil prices on the national economy. When the last serious price rises hit the country in 2000, the increase of 30% sent inflation soaring. Urszula CieÊlak, petroleum market analyst at Biuro Maklerskie Reflex, said prices are rising only because of the possible conflict. Despite the fact that the market had calmed down as war seemed to be postponed, prices refused to respond by falling. “If there will be corrections of prices, it will depend on if there will be the permission to start military action or not,” she said. “The tension will continue. There are no chances of a long-term trend in falling prices. At present, we have fluctuations of prices, and it is the general mood which prevails. If the war begins, there will be a sharp increase in prices; if the war is short, the prices will drop faster; if it develops for a longer period, the prices will stay at higher levels longer and then will go down slowly.” The country’s oil supplies for industry, transport and motorists mostly originate in non-OPEC Russia where supplies are plentiful, so shortages are very unlikely. However, Russia does hitch prices closely to OPEC and other reference levels.

Raimo Valo, president of Svenska Handelsbanken’s operations in Poland, is on record in the Business Journal as warning that the country is acutely exposed to oil price increases, and the danger point would be reached at $35 a barrel. On February 14, the price per barrel touched $34.40. Over 12 months, the price had gone up by $12 a barrel. CieÊlak added: “The price contains a war bonus, and it should drop to around $24. However, in that case, oil producers like OPEC may try to keep the price between $25-$28 by limiting output.” Lars Christensen, senior analyst at Danske Bank Polska, said: “As a rule of thumb, 10% reduces GDP growth by around half a percentage point year-on-year. The implication of that is that if oil prices stay at the present level for the rest of the year, then it would take a percentage point off growth.” He added it was a “risk that could be ignored, although prices ought to drop once the conflict is resolved.” Taking into account the oil situation and the continuing sluggish performance of the German economy, Danske Bank has revised its predictions for economic growth this year to 2.7%, well short of the finance ministry’s projected 3.5%, and 3.8% for 2004. “We are fairly optimistic that we will see a recovery this year, but it will be a struggling recovery and somewhat weaker than (finance minister) Grzegorz Ko©©odko expects,” Christensen said. “Higher oil prices always act as a drag on a country’s economy.”

Magdalena Kandefar, BP Polska’s spokeswoman, said that in addition to the higher costs of petrol at garage pumps, there was also the problem of the shrinking of the retail margin where forecourt profits are made. “Such a situation is unfavourable for our clients and for producers,” she said. “We can expect a decrease in petrol prices only when the cost of production will diminish.” BP Polska followed a strategy of adapting to market tendencies and not being an initiator of changes. “Therefore, if the market will calm down provoking a drop in prices, then BP will go immediately after market changes,” she said Pump prices at the weekend were z©© 3.72 per litre for petrol and z©© 2.87 for diesel. A year ago, the prices were z©©. 3.24 for unleaded petrol and z©©. 2.49 for diesel. “The increase of petroleum prices in the world always means an increase of detailed prices of petrol in Poland,” said William Kozik, the sales director of Shell Produkty Polska. “This has a direct effect on the demand. Additionally, the increase in oil prices provokes the decrease of retail margins of petrol, and we do not want to transfer the rise in oil prices worldwide on our clients.” With eyes on developments in Iraq, Kozik says that undoubtedly any change in the situation there would impact oil prices here, but that his company “will do everything possible to make another increase in oil prices the least difficult for our clients in Poland.” Arkadiusz Majzner, petroleum market analyst in the oil and fuel trade office at PKN Orlen agreed, but pointed out that oil workers’ strikes in Venezuela as well as the cold weather in the United States caused US oil reserves to drop and prices to increase. Nevertheless, he stressed that the possibility of military action in Iraq influences the high level of oil prices the most with the uncertainty of the situation keeping prices high.

How to save:

• Look for price wars. Prices often vary by 3 cents per gallon at stations just blocks apart. Studies show no real difference in gas mileage among different brands.
• Check the owner's manual to see what grade of fuel is recommended for your car. You may be able to safely buy regular unleaded as opposed to premium grades. With a difference of 9 to 17 cents per gallon, that can equal a few hundred dollars per year.
• Run errands all at once rather than making multiple trips.
• Carpool.
• Slow down. For every 5 mph above 60 you drive, the reduced efficiency is the equivalent of adding 10 cents to your per-gallon cost.
• Check your tire pressure. Without enough air, a tire's increased resistance forces the engine to work harder. That can rob you of up to 2 miles per gallon.

Sources: AAA, Consumer Reports, Elkins Chevrolet in Marlton.

www.thedailyjournal.com Monday, February 24, 2003 By GISELLE SOTELO Staff Writer; gsotelo@thedailyjournal.com

VINELAND --

Penny-wise commuters are employing every trick in the book these days to offset the recent surge in gas prices.

"It's killing me," said Greg Jenkins, a Vineland carpenter who relies on his Dodge Ram for traveling about two hours a day on the job.

The average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded has risen about 22 cents nationwide since the beginning of the year.

The price is hovering around $1.50 at most local gas stations, up 18 percent from an average of $1.27 earlier this winter.

The looming war with Iraq and a protracted refinery strike in Venezuela -- a major U.S. supplier of petroleum -- are cited as key factors behind the price spike. But some suggest refiners and retailers may be taking advantage of a pending war to unjustifiably boost prices.

"I feel like I'm being cheated," said Jenkins, 42. "Somebody's making a lot of money on the situation in this country."

Mustafa Ozturk, co-owner of the U.S. Petroleum station on Landis Avenue in Vineland, insists he isn't that "somebody."

"We don't have any control over the prices," Ozturk said.

He points to his sales as proof.

When Ozturk sold regular unleaded for $1.09 a gallon a few months back, his station sold 3,300 to 3,400 gallons per day.

Now that prices have climbed to $1.49 a gallon, sales have slowed to about 2,900 gallons a day.

"When the price goes up, business goes down because people stop driving their cars," Ozturk said. "It's like cigarettes. When the price of cigarettes goes up, people stop smoking."

For most, abandoning their primary source of transportation is not an option.

Yet commuters are refusing to idly stand by. They're actively taking measures that would fend off blows to their wallet.

"I try not to use the car too much," said Juan Cruz, 22, of Vineland. "If I have to work, I'll get a ride. If I have to pick up something, I'll go to the nearest store. I'll do anything."

Amy Moats, 57, of Pittsgrove is learning to employ various cost-saving methods, as well.

Moats, a mother of two, drives a minivan. It costs her $30 to fill 'er up, about $10 more than late last fall.

That's why she's tag-teaming with others.

On her way to drop off her children at a skating party, she had already determined that another mother would bring her children back home.

Moats also now runs errands on the way home rather than doing them during her lunch hour like she used to.

"I'll do things on my way home as I pass it," Moats said. "That way I can avoid more trips."

sg.biz.yahoo.com Monday February 24, 11:26 AM

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--French bank Societe Generale is revising up its first-quarter Brent crude price forecast by US$4 a barrel to US$29/bbl, taking into account the average price to date of US$30.19/bbl, Paris-based SocGen economist Frederic Lasserre said in a report issued Monday.

The latest revision, which follows less bullish price forecasts in mid-January, focuses on supply owing to the strike in Venezuela and stronger-than expected demand from October last year through March.

The difficulty in anticipating the exact timing of military intervention in Iraq contributed to the US$4/bbl upward price revision for Brent crude, Lasserre said.

SocGen's "central scenario remains that there will be a war (90% probability), of short duration...without causing major damage to oil installations in the Gulf."

The French bank is convinced of limited price upside potential, capping Brent crude at US$35/bbl, before prices slide to US$25/bbl once the attack is launched, or once the U.S. authorities announce their decision to this effect.

SocGen initially expected the war to begin in mid-January, then February, before revising its Brent price forecast to the latest expectations of a war timed for first-half March.

SocGen is maintaining a Brent crude price forecast of US$20/bbl for the second quarter, based on the resumption of Venezuelan exports, increased Saudi production and a 1.8 million-barrel-a-day seasonal fall in demand, which will trigger a slide in prices towards the end of March, the report said.

-By Sharon Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; 65-6415-4067; sharon.lim@dowjones.com

-Edited by George Bernard