www.japantimes.co.jp

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven industrialized countries held one of their regular meetings last weekend in Paris. Two days of discussions produced a statement promising efforts to stabilize and stimulate their economies and a pledge to convene again in the event of an emergency. The European Central Bank indicated that it might be ready to provide additional stimulus, but this message of reassurance was undercut by the representatives' unwillingness to use the words "war" or "Iraq," and their failure to come up with a concrete program of cooperation in the event that fighting breaks out.

The G-7 communique said that member-states were "confident in the underlying strength of our economies," but cautioned that "geopolitical uncertainties" loomed over the horizon. That is banker-speak for war, and while the prospect is unpleasant, it looks increasingly probable. Their reluctance to say as much is not encouraging.

Economists are already factoring in the impact of war. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development said the world's 30 largest economies should grow 2.2 percent in 2003, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over last year, but a significant downward revision of last June's forecast of 3-percent growth. The International Monetary Fund worries that war could cut global growth in half, from 3 percent in 2002 to 1.5 percent in 2003. Without a conflict, the IMF believes growth could reach 3.5 percent (which is less than the 3.7 percent forecast offered last year). A recent study by an Australian think tank argues that protracted war with Iraq could cut 2 percent from global growth by 2005 and cost major economies up to $3.6 trillion by 2010. Even a short war could cut world gross domestic product 1 percent a year over the next few years; in the seven years to 2010, the estimated loss would be $491 billion for the United States, $122 billion for Japan and $157 billion for Europe.

War is not the only concern. Oil prices are climbing. Brent crude averaged $30 a barrel last month, the highest price since the fall of 2000. Each dollar increase reduces economic growth in East Asia (with the exception of Japan) by 0.1 percent directly and another 0.1 percent through a drop in export demand. Even though the war premium is estimated to add $5-6 a barrel, the real pressure on demand is being exerted by Asia's economic recovery and slumping oil production in Venezuela.

Alarms were also sounded over the U.S. tax cut, which could reach $695 billion and threatens the U.S. with substantial fiscal and trade deficits well into the future. These shortfalls will be difficult to sustain and their impact will be felt well beyond the U.S. itself. Finally, there is ongoing concern about corporate performance. Revelations of the past year have eroded confidence in international accounting; to no one's surprise, stock markets worldwide have been declining since 2000, and another year like the last one would represent the worst performance since the Great Depression.

The G-7 representatives declared that they are "prepared to respond as appropriate" if the economic outlook weakens. While the statement listed various reforms that could strengthen growth, there is "no hidden plan," as French Finance Minister Francis Mer confessed. The clearest indication came from ECB President Wim Duisenberg, who said he was prepared to act if required. The ECB has come under increasing pressure to cut interest rates to stimulate euro-zone economies. The U.S. has aggressively cut its own interest rates, and Japanese rates have hovered around zero for several years -- but have had little impact on the nation's economic prospects.

Europe's room to take action is constrained by agreements that strictly limit budget deficits. There is no indication that European nations are willing to entertain the kind of large fiscal stimulus measures that the U.S. has implemented. Some governments, however, like Italy's, have engaged in creative accounting to make the limits, and might be willing to do more to "shoulder the burden," cloaking political weakness in the language of shared responsibility.

As the world's two largest economies, Japan and the U.S. have a special duty to work together. U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told his Japanese counterpart, Mr. Masajuro Shiokawa, that "the world economy will not improve unless (the U.S.) joins hands with Japan." That, too, sounds nice, but it is essentially meaningless until either government takes substantive action. The past -- and last week's meeting -- gives little reason for optimism.

The Japan Times: Feb. 25, 2003

morningnewsonline.com Feb 23, 2003 By DWIGHT DANA Staff Writer

Mark Belk pumps gas at the Sav-Way at Five Points Sunday. Belk drives to the beach every weekend with his sons and said he has felt the effects of rising gas prices.

FLORENCE -- Chris Morris is from Lake City but he was filling up the tank of his red Ford pickup in Florence on Sunday because the gas was cheaper.

"This is the cheapest I've found it," he said topping off the tank with regular selling for $1.49 a gallon at Tommy's Quick Mart on South Irby Street.

"But I think the public is getting gouged by the petroleum people," said Morris, the supervisor at a brass company in Horry County. "Somebody's making some money and it's not those of us who are paying higher gas prices."

Todd Davis, a foot and ankle surgeon, was filling up a 2003 BMW 325i with mid-priced high test going for $1.59 a gallon, 10 cents less than the premium juice at $1.69.

"Gas prices don't seem like they are going up with the price of crude oil from what I've read," said Davis, who commutes from Florence to Columbia each day. "It seems to me like they are being hyper-inflated, especially with the threat of war in Iraq."

"Customers keep wondering how high the prices for gas are going to go," said Helen Jordan, a cashier at Tommy's. "I think there are those using the threat of war to hike the gas prices."

Jordan's remarks were echoed by Cindy Cook, who was busy ringing up receipts at another cash register.

"The customers are frustrated and wonder if the gas prices are ever going to come down," Cook said. "I tell them the store here doesn't have any control over what we have to charge for gas."

Prices were higher over at the Sav-Way at Five Points. But one of the perks for paying more was the swiftness of Jason Lewylen, who pumps gas for customers eight hours a day.

Lewylen barely had time to catch a drag on a cigarette in the cubbyhole between the gas pumps that serves as his outdoor office.

"I don't know what's causing the gas to go up, but I have to pay the same price as my customers," Lewylen said, handing change to a driver and thanking him for his business. "What with them talking about war and all that stuff, gas prices are probably going to keep going up."

Jordan buys gas frequently from Sav-Way because he likes the service offered by Lewylen and others who pump gas.

"I think the worry about war in Iraq and problems in oil-producing countries like Venezuela and Nigeria are causing the prices to go up," said Jordan, who retired in 1994 after selling Chevrolets for 40 years at a family owned dealership. "All I know is what I read. I guess we'll just have to learn how to conserve more."

But Judy Martin, a Sav-Way cashier for 11 years, has a different take.

"I don't believe we are that short of gas for it to go up like it's gone up," Martin said while sitting at a table during her break. "I think the price for gas is entirely too high."

Martin, eating fruit from a shallow Styrofoam container, had more to say as she pointed her plastic fork for emphasis.

"They can talk about war and all that, but I worked here long enough to see gas go up in the summer and during holidays and down when winter blows in," she said. "I think they make up their own rules. They just want us to hush up and pay the higher prices."

www.barbadosadvocate.com Web Posted - Mon Feb 24 2003 By Petal Smith

THE Venezuela Community in Barbados held a special Church Service yesterday at the St. Dominic’s Roman Catholic Church in Christ Church praying for peace and solidarity in their country.

Lifting the congregation in prayer was Father Anton Dick of the Roman Catholic Church. He remarked that the Venezuelan community here had asked to be a part of their service yesterday so that prayers could be offered for the political instability in Venezuela.

Father Dick said, “We were happy to join with those Venezuelans who formed part of our regular Sunday service. We offered prayers for peace and unity in their country.” Father Dick said he hopes that through their prayers, peace and unity will be accomplished in Venezuela.

However, the Venezuelan Ambassador, Corina Russian, said that the Venezuelan community decided to pray for the peace and to seek solutions to the problems in Venezuela. She added that the community locally comprised of over 150 persons.

Their presence here, she said, was established more than 50 years ago, when the first Venezuelans came to study English in Barbados, and, instead of returning, some took up residence locally.

The Ambassador added that they are looking to God for the strength and faith to solve their problems in the best and peaceful way, and in unity.

Further, Joycelyn Hunte, a Venezuelan national living in Barbados for 53 years commended all Venezuelans and friends who have shown their solidarity during the difficult months when the political climate in Venezuela had deteriorated into alarming proportions.

She claimed also that the political crisis in Venezuela is escalating and nothing has been resolved.

Recently, Venezuelans had experienced a turmoil of a six- week opposition strike that has crippled the oil sector in the world’s fifth-largest petroleum exporter.

The strike was launched by opposition leaders on December 2, 2002 to press leftist President Hugo Chavez to resign and hold earlier elections. His current term ends in 2007.

www.barbadosadvocate.com Web Posted - Mon Feb 24 2003 CARIBBEAN Financial Action Task Force (CFATF) countries are fully committed to working with the rest of the world to choke off any possibility of funding reaching terrorists via their respective financial systems.

This is the word from Calvin Wilson, executive director of the CFATF who said the countries in the Caribbean and Latin America are also looking to maintain effective anti-money laundering controls.

In pursuit of this goal, Wilson said CFATF, along with the governments of Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Venezuela are partnering to spend US$100 000 on the training of front-line public and private sector officials in the financial industry with a view to having the courses replicated domestically.

This training is also being done in collaboration with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

Officials of banks and banking supervisory entities in these four member states of the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force are to receive advanced training in the best methods to detect and prevent money launderers attempting to “clean” their ill-gotten gains through the official banking systems of the region.

Wilson, along with the IDB Representative in Trinidad and Tobago, William J. Robinson, recently signed the training agreement in Port-of-Spain. At the signing ceremony, Wilson noted the efforts of James Spinner, Rosina De Souza of the Washington office of the IDB and Rafael Franzini of the Organisation of American States/CICAD in making the agreement possible.

He said the training programme, which is due to start in April 2003 would result in additional support for the financial sector to prevent the infiltration of “dirty” money into the system.

“Money launderers have a powerful incentive to attempt to circumvent anti-money laundering controls, and therefore there is a need to continually provide updated training in monitoring and detecting to respond to the challenges facing banks”, Wilson said.

He added that the programme will also provide an opportunity for regional banking regulators to share practical experiences, for a hands-on perspective of how best to maintain the integrity of anti- money laundering systems.

Wilson said this training programme is a demonstration of the political will of Caribbean Basin countries to work with the international community to deter money launderers, drug dealers and terrorists from conducting their operations in this region.

www.athensnews.com Tuesday 2003-02-24 By Jim Phillips Athens NEWS Senior Writer

Anyone who follows international news is well aware that the European Union -- the "United States of Europe" -- is now undergoing massive growing pains and internal controversy, as it struggles to absorb a raft of new Eastern European countries, codify a constitution, unify its economy, and decide whether to support the United States in its pending war against Iraq.

Athens residents and Ohio University students will get a chance to question academic experts about this jumbled state of affairs Tuesday night when a group of OU professors from various disciplines join in a symposium on "The European Union: For Good or Ill?" in OU's Seigfred Hall.

The event was organized by Robert H. Whealey, an associate emeritus professor of history who has written about European issues including Hitler's involvement in the Spanish Civil War. Whealey said Saturday that he hopes the symposium will spark interest in the EU among students and local citizens.

"I hope there's going to be a crowd," Whealey said. "It's my expectation that the students are going to be raising (the issues of) Iraq and oil."

The symposium will feature Whealey and four other speakers: OU associate professor of geography Timothy Anderson; assistant professor of political science James Mosher; Ohio Eminent Research Professor Alfred Eckes, who has written numerous books on the global economy; and John R. Gump, a Presbyterian pastor with experience among churches in Prague, Vienna and Budapest.

Whealey said his presentation will touch briefly on a number of issues: How World War II changed the European balance of power; the evolution of NATO; the evolution of the EU; how the collapse of the Soviet Union led to a reorganization of NATO; how the conflict in Yugoslavia changed the mission of the EU and NATO; and the question of the Balkans and the Middle East.

Each speaker will have 10 minutes to present, after which the rest of the panel will have two minutes to respond. Following the panel discussion, the symposium will be thrown open to audience questions, Whealey said. The event will be chaired by OU Ombudsman Elizabeth Graham.

Whealey said that although news about the EU isn't given major play in U.S. media, Americans have ample reason to follow developments in the Old World.

"Democracy is in better shape in Europe than America, so the EU has been helpful for democracy," he argued. He added that "the euro is competing with the dollar, and if the United States gets involved in the Middle East on a long-term basis, the value of the dollar is going to go down, and the value of the euro is going to go up."

Oil is also an important factor, Whealey said, noting that while Europe gets much of its oil from the Middle East, the United States is more reliant on Nigeria, Mexico and Venezuela -- which just underwent a crippling national strike in opposition to President Hugo Chavez, that massively cut back on the country's oil production.

Some observers have questioned whether the opposition of France and Germany to U.S. war plans might not be a kind of muscle-flexing among the older countries of the EU, testing whether the Union can effectively act as a countervailing global power to the American empire. Whealey said the issue is complex.

"The United States has the military dominance," he said. "So the problem that Europe faces is, if they do not support the United States in its Middle East war, they are going to have to appropriate the money for their own strike force." Pointing out that European countries spend a much smaller percentage of their gross national products on the military, Whealey predicted that "if there is going to be a parting of the ways, the economy is going to be re-oriented."

He added that while the United States has been a staunch supporter of Israel, public opinion in Europe is in favor of a peaceful resolution of the West Bank conflict, and views Israel as a major threat to regional peace.

"Israel is the elephant in the living room," he said. "(Europeans) see Israel as the biggest problem, not Saddam Hussein."

The symposium is set for 8 p.m., in Seigfred's Mitchell Auditorium. It is sponsored by OU's Contemporary History Institute, Institute for Applied and Professional Ethics, Ohio Program of Intensive English, and the departments of communication, economics, geography, history, interpersonal communication, journalism, linguistics, modern languages, philosophy, political science, social studies education, and sociology.