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Americans have a twofold interest in Venezuela's resolution of its current political problems peacefully and constitutionally. The country sits atop the largest petroleum fields outside the Middle East, with most of its oil exports going to the United States. A nationwide strike has sharply lowered those exports in recent months. Venezuela may also be the most fragile of Latin America's growing number of troubled democracies. A turn toward authoritarianism of the left or right could have damaging ripple effects across the region.

Regrettably, President Hugo Chávez, instead of working to heal his badly divided country, seems determined to provoke new and dangerous tensions. Less than two days after government and opposition representatives promised to step back from their confrontation, two of the country's most visible opposition leaders face charges of rebellion, sabotage and a series of other crimes growing out of their leadership of a now faltering national strike.

Carlos Fernández, who leads Venezuela's most important business federation, was arrested early yesterday. Carlos Ortega, the head of the country's main union alliance, has gone into hiding. The vindictive charges against them could undo the modest progress recently made toward a peaceful, constitutional resolution of Venezuela's long-running political crisis.

The strike led by Mr. Fernández and Mr. Ortega aimed at forcing Mr. Chávez from power. The right way to determine Venezuela's political future is through democratic elections. The Constitution devised by Mr. Chávez permits a recall vote this August. Between now and then, all sides should work to calm the inflamed political atmosphere. That seemed possible as recently as Tuesday, when government and opposition representatives issued a joint declaration pledging efforts to promote reconciliation and mutual understanding. Then came the two arrest orders.

Mr. Chávez's opponents were already alarmed by the kidnapping and murder of four anti-Chávez demonstrators, whose bodies were found earlier this week. Police investigators now suggest that the killings were not politically motivated, but the victims' relatives disagree.

It's easy to see why. Earlier this month Mr. Chávez proclaimed this the "year of the revolutionary offensive." He vowed to take retribution against his many enemies, especially the strike leaders. Days later he introduced currency controls, and ominously warned that they could be used as a financial weapon against opposition businessmen. The state oil company has permanently dismissed thousands of striking workers.

These steps threaten to overwhelm the compromise proposals put forth by Jimmy Carter after a mediation mission last month. His ideas drew positive responses from both sides and encouragement from Washington. The centerpiece of the package was a recall vote or new elections after August. Preliminary steps called for the opposition to end its strike and for the government to refrain from reprisals. That remains good advice. Unfortunately, Mr. Chávez, having all but vanquished the strike, no longer seems to be listening.

www.vanguardngr.com By Victor Ahiuma-Young Friday, February 21, 2003

 LAGOS— LONG queues at filing stations, reminiscent of the Abacha era, returned to Lagos metropolis and other parts of the country, yesterday as the current fuel scarcity worsened. The re-emergence of the queues occurred on a day workers of the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) suspended their seven-day old strike, while US crude oil prices broke above 37 dollars a barrel for the first time in 29 months with prospect of a war in Iraq influencing fear in world market.

The queues spilled onto highways, causing traffic jams in many parts of the Lagos metropolis. Private car owners and commercial drivers in their hundreds abandoned their businesses to join in the queues with a view to buying fuel. The fuel black market which had practically disappeared is also back, with the operators hawking fuel along highways.

Yesterday, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) directed their striking members in DPR to suspend their seven-day industrial action following a meeting in Abuja with government officials.

General Secretary of PENGASSAN, Mr. Kenneth Narebor, told Vanguard on telephone that the government had now agreed to work with the two unions in the oil industry as well as the National Assembly to ensure speedy passage of the DPR Autonomy Bill, the bone of contention. DPR management and the workers had, Wednesday, in Lagos reached some understanding concerning the welfare of the workers.

"We have concluded the meeting with government officials. The Special Adviser to president Obasanjo on petroleum matters, Dr. Rilwan Lukman, has promised to work with the workers and the National Assembly to ensure speedy passage of the DPR Autonomy Bill. So, DPR workers have agreed to suspend the action. The communique reached has been taken to Dr. Lukman and other government officials. There are other issues in the communique. We shall make it available soon."

Vanguard also gathered yesterday that contractors supplying petroleum products to the country have been putting pressure on government to review the terms of their contracts in line with the rising crude oil prices in the international market. Sources close to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said the contractors had actually reduced the volume of petroleum products they supply to the country in an effort to force government to re-negotiate with them and the reduction in supply is believed to be the cause of the re-emergence of queues at the filling stations in the last few days. The source said, however, that NNPC had so far not yielded to the pressure as that would amount to hiking the pump prices of fuel.

"Since the Venezuela crisis and the Iraq/US face-off started, which has shot up the prices of crude in the international market, the contractors supplying petroleum products to the country have been putting pressure on NNPC to re-negotiate the terms of their contracts in line with the rising crude price in the international market. You know these contractors have a ready market where they can take their products to and make the profit they are after," the source said.

"Ordinarily, the NNPC should not have bothered because a contract is a contract. They have been benefitting from the contract before this time and NNPC did not call for a re-negotiation. But the problem facing NNPC is that most of these contractors were politically appointed, hence the corporation is in a fix. Not until this issue is resolved, this fuel scarcity will persist."

•US oil prices hit fresh 29-month high

However, US crude oil prices broke above 37 dollars a barrel for the first time in 29 months, Wednesday, as the prospect of a war in Iraq instilled fear in world markets. Concern over the possibility of short fuel supplies in the United States also kept prices higher a day before the release of government and private data on US oil stocks. New York’s benchmark light sweet crude contract for delivery in March advanced 20 cents to 37.16 dollars a barrel, the highest close since September 2000.

Earlier, London oil prices moved in the opposite direction. Brent North Sea crude oil for April delivery slipped 23 cents to finish at 32.31 dollars per barrel. "We’re waiting for tomorrow’s data (on oil stocks), said A. G. Edwards analyst Bill O’Grady, forecasting a decline of 1.5 million barrels in crude stocks. Most analysts expected stocks to rise, he said. Trade was volatile, he said. "We chopped around all day."

Analysts in London said prices were propped up by the threat of war despite a British press report that Britain was pressing the United States to give UN weapons inspections more time. "People just don’t want to be short of this market ahead of a possible war and tomorrow (Thursday)’s US stocks data," said Prudential Bache oil broker Tony Machacek. The Times newspaper said British Prime Minister Tony Blair was trying to buy weapons inspectors three more weeks before the United Nations was asked to trigger military action against Iraq.

In a front-page report, it said Blair and Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, were suggesting that a crunch meeting of the UN could take place on March 14. But GNI-Man Financial analyst Lawrence Eagles said comments Tuesday by US President George W. Bush indicated that a war was unlikely to be averted for long. "War is my last choice, but the risk of doing nothing is even a worse option," Bush said, adding that while UN backing for a US-led attack on Iraq would be useful it was not necessary. Meanwhile, analysts said, the market eyed developments in Nigeria where junior oil workers joined a three-day-old strike by government inspectors. The country’s oil companies said the strike had so far had no impact.

www.channelnewsasia.com First created : 21 February 2003 1157 hrs (SST) 0357 hrs (GMT) Last modified : 21 February 2003 1204 hrs (SST) 0404 hrs (GMT)

Carlos Fernandes was seized outside a Caracas steakhouse at around midnight and bundled into a waiting car.Advertisement Mr Fernandez, along with union boss Carlos Ortega, were believed to have started a crippling two-month strike to oust President Hugo Chavez.

A judge ordered the two to be detained for rebellion against the state, sabotage and other charges.

Opposition leaders, whose complaints against the arrest were dismissed, stepped up demonstrations.

The crackdown has also triggered concern from the international community.

The United States said the arrest was worrisome and could undermine talks between the government and opposition over the Venezuelan elections.

www.washingtonpost.com News from Venezuela By Scott Wilson Washington Post Foreign Service Friday, February 21, 2003; Page A16

BOGOTA, Colombia, Feb. 20 -- Venezuela's secret police have arrested a key opposition leader and are searching for two others in an apparent crackdown by President Hugo Chavez against leaders of a recent general strike designed to force him from office.

Carlos Fernandez, head of Venezuela's largest business federation, was arrested late Wednesday by about eight government agents outside an upscale restaurant in eastern Caracas. Fernandez was taken to the headquarters of Venezuela's secret police agency, the Directorate of Intelligence and Prevention Services. Opposition leaders say he is being held on charges of treason, "civil rebellion" and illegal assembly.

Government authorities are now searching for Carlos Ortega, the head of Venezuela's largest labor federation, who with Fernandez was prominent in the two-month strike that ended this month. Ortega called Fernandez's arrest a "terrorist act" and said he would not turn himself in.

Government officials said a third arrest warrant had been issued for Juan Fernandez, the former financial planning director at the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, who led the strike at the company. He was fired by Chavez, along with about 13,000 other employees.

The new action appears to be part of a calculated retaliation by Chavez against the opposition movement just as the oil-rich country is showing signs of recovering from the crippling general strike. It also has complicated negotiations to end a political crisis that has shaken Venezuela for more than a year and raised the specter of fresh violence.

"These people should have been jailed a long time ago," Chavez said today at a ceremony at the Foreign Ministry.

Authorities this week discovered the bodies of three dissident Venezuelan army soldiers and an opposition activist in a killing characterized by international human rights groups as politically motivated.

The arrest of Carlos Fernandez came a day after government and opposition negotiators agreed to an eight-point declaration renouncing violence and inflammatory rhetoric as they seek a deal on new elections. The document was the first accord to emerge in three months of talks mediated by Cesar Gaviria, secretary general of the Organization of American States, who called on the government today to ensure that Fernandez receives an "independent, impartial" trial.

Thousands of Chavez opponents demonstrated today in response to Fernandez's arrest, many in front of the headquarters of Petroleos de Venezuela, where thousands of employees continue their walkout.

Chavez, a populist firebrand elected in 1998 on a pledge to help Venezuela's poor, survived a military-led coup last April that began with a strike in the oil sector. But an opposition movement made up of labor and business groups, leftist political parties, and middle- and upper-class civilians continued the effort to drive him from office.

Opposition leaders called a general strike on Dec. 2 to force Chavez to resign or move up presidential elections, scheduled for 2006, to this year. Chavez weathered the strike by creating a system that maintained food and gasoline supplies, but depleted the public treasury. The financially damaged private sector lifted the protest on Feb. 3.

Although workers at the state oil company remain on strike, the government says production has returned to more than half its pre-strike level of 3 million barrels a day. The company accounts for half the government's revenue and 15 percent of U.S. oil imports.

Jose Miguel Vivanco, head of the Americas division of Human Rights Watch, said Fernandez's arrest left him "extremely concerned by these retaliatory operations." Opposition members said at least one of the charges against Fernandez, civil rebellion, does not even appear in the criminal code.

"The risk here is that the government has decided to criminalize political expression and the actions of the opposition," he said.

The OAS talks are scheduled to resume Wednesday, giving both sides time to plan their next steps. Rafael Alfonzo, an opposition negotiator who represents Fedecamaras, the business federation that Fernandez heads, said, "Obviously, we must do something about this."

"Some [opposition] people complained when we signed the [nonviolence] agreement, but we believed in it," Alfonzo said. "Now we have this demonstration on the government's part that shows clearly that we do not have a democracy and freedom."

abc.net.au Fri, Feb 21 2003 5:03 PM AEDT

A senior executive of a major Australian oil firm says a number of factors are to blame for rising petrol prices.

BP Australasia president Greg Bourne says the main factor is a low oil inventory worldwide, but the cold weather in parts of the United States and a recent strike in Venezuela have also played a part.

He says the possible war with Iraq has also driven up the price of oil.

Mr Bourne's rejected claims the increases are being driven by opportunism.

"When you look at the competitive dynamic that's in the oil industry it is still highly competitive," Mr Bourne said.

"You still see the cycles, we all hate them but of course, people can take the opportunity to buy when they're at the the low and so you do see them coming right down to a low, and that cyclicity [sic] will continue, I'm absolutely sure of that."

Mr Bourne says while it may seem that the oil companies are making lots of money, they are not making huge profits.

"When you look at the return we get for the outlay, then you actually see that the profitability is not that great and indeed, if you look at all of the information that's been coming out from the Federal Government or any of the studies, it all says this is a highly efficient industry, it's not very profitable," Mr Bourne said.

"There's probably going to be some rationalisation in it - you know, it is tough."