www.atimes.com By Francesco Sisci BEIJING - It's an odd twist of fate. This weekend US Secretary of State Colin Powell will come to Beijing to confer with his Chinese counterparts about the forthcoming war in Iraq and the troublesome situation in North Korea. In China, until recently a Cold War foe, he will find more support than in France, its ally in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the country that two centuries ago helped America gain its independence. The Eurasian continental balance has apparently shifted. Whereas western Eurasia had been for more than half a century the cornerstone of US strategy on the continent, with much shakier relations in the eastern part, now the eastern part seems more solid than the western one. Certainly this is only temporary, as the deep ties binding Western Europe to America can't be easily traded for the fragile bonds between Washington and Beijing. But, as the Economist said in "Old Europe's last gasp?" on February 13, "The nature of the split [between the US and France + Germany] threatens to undermine the postwar trans-Atlantic alliance, the hopes of those who dream of a common EU foreign policy and the prospect of a smooth transition to the newly enlarged EU in just over a year's time." Simply put, as by influential European commentator Lucio Caracciolo, European public opinion doesn't back the war in Iraq. There are many the reasons for this:

• The September 11, 2001, attacks were kindled by the Palestinian issue, and the war against terrorism promised some months ago also to resolve the Palestinian issue. This, especially after the recent Israeli elections, which confirmed Ariel Sharon, renowned for his tough stance on the Palestinian issue, will not happen. In other words the war on Iraq will not help the solution of the Palestinian cause. The Arabs then will receive the stick but no carrot with the war, and sticks without carrots rarely work. This could trigger further destabilization in the Middle East.
• The European Muslim domestic minority is important because its dissatisfaction with Middle Eastern policies could trigger protests and possibly radicalize Muslims in Europe.
• There is strong Catholic opposition to this war. The Vatican has a strong constituency in Iraq, a country hosting a large Christian minority loyal to the pope. There is fear that a war in the Middle East that does not provide a solution for the Palestinian solution could antagonize the Muslims. The pope, who doesn't want wars tainted with religion, thinks that the biggest threat to Catholicism comes from atheism, not other religions.
• European public opinion believes that a war in Iraq could further ignite terrorism in Europe, closer and easier to attack, and conversely does not see at present the danger of terrorist attacks the Americans feel. In a way, Europe has lived with terrorism for decades and has given up the pretense of total security, which is opposite to the US notion of attempting to regain through war the illusion of total security. These sentiments give sufficient reasons to hesitate regarding a war. In the face of all these social costs, Europe might well be called to foot part of the bill of the war and its present claims to some of the Iraqi oilfields could be forfeited. The United States has already claimed that contracts signed with the present Iraqi regime will be reviewed after the war. France and Germany could bargain with the US about these costs but there is a much bigger geopolitical event around the corner. Through this war the US will be able finally to emasculate the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which the West will welcome, although this might not be openly expressed. However, this will give the US de facto strategic control of oil in an unprecedented way. Before Middle Eastern countries and Venezuela formed OPEC and challenged the West with a price war in the early 1970s, oil supplies were jointly controlled by the United States, the United Kingdom and France. After the war, the US will in essence have total control of oil security from Iraq, Kuwait and the whole Arabian Peninsula. The UK and France will have no part in it, as no European country will have any part in the reshaping of the Middle Eastern political geography that will follow the war. On the positive side, the war could boost the dollar and deflate the euro, thus helping European exports and the sagging US stock market and its investments. This would help expand the economy on both sides of the Atlantic - provided there is a quick and clear-cut victory. But many Europeans fear that this will not be the case, in which case Pandora's box will have been opened, something for which the US seems ill-prepared. This could be especially true if the war does not contemplate a viable solution for the Palestinians. These are good enough reasons for caution and possibly for not starting the war. But what the European public is failing to grasp is that war has already started, and in fact it has been going on for months. In this situation it would be in everybody's best interests to solve it sooner rater than later. But this is not happening, and consequently oil prices are rising and anti-war demonstrations are growing. It is a vicious circle that started because the United States began the war in Iraq without declaring it and now it is hard for Washington to say it. It was a US stratagem to prepare the field for the final attack, before officially declaring it, but now it has turned against the US. This occurred because the US underestimated the European opposition to war and the Israelis' tough stance on the Palestinian issue. The US predicament is more understandable in China, where government and people have a national passion for stratagems, and the rulers can see and accept that the war has already started and it is only a matter of winning or losing it. In Europe, conversely, democratic public opinion would react even more bitterly if the US were to declare the simple truth that the war has already started and it is only a matter of winning or losing it. It could look like a deception of naive Europeans. But the real question remains: Could the administration of US President George W Bush withdraw from the war? What would be the consequences of letting Saddam Hussein continue ruling Iraq? For one thing, the global economy would stall for months, US public opinion might swing even more strongly against Europeans and oil prices could go sky-high as US market sentiments plunge further. So, war will certainly be waged, but will this trans-Atlantic rift be healed? And in what way? This rift could threaten the security bond that held together the Western world for more than 50 years and helped defeat the Soviet Union and hold the whole of Eurasia together. The trans-Atlantic alliance may well be the largest casualty of the Iraqi war, something that we have not even started to address. (©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

www.oneworld.net Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Feb 20 (IPS) - Venezuela's ongoing political crisis worsened Thursday following the court order for the arrest of two opposition leaders, Carlos Fernández, president of the Fedecámaras business association, and Carlos Ortega, president of the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers (CTV).

Fernández was detained just before midnight Wednesday and Ortega decided to go into hiding -- just 30 hours after the Hugo Chávez government and the political opposition signed a pact on non-violence in an effort to defuse tensions still simmering after a nearly two-month strike.

Thousands of people gathered in downtown Caracas Thursday afternoon to march in protest against the arrest.

Penal judge Maikel Moreno issued arrest orders Wednesday for the two, who led the December-January strike that sought Chávez's ouster. The judge acted on a request from the Prosecutor General, which accuses Ortega and Fernández of ''rebellion, treason against the fatherland, incitement to crime, assembly for criminal ends, and destruction.''

Opposition parties and trade unions are outraged by the judge's action and by the arrest of Fernández, which took place as he was leaving a Caracas restaurant.

Government agents held Fernández for several hours before allowing him to contact his family and attorneys.

César Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organisation of American States (OAS), who is mediating talks between the government and opposition, called on the Venezuelan judiciary to ensure that its decisions are taken with ''independence, impartiality and in strict compliance with the laws and rights guaranteed by the constitution.''

Gaviria underscored the social and political stature of Fernández as leader of one of the two sides in the talks that began more than three months ago to resolve Venezuela's political crisis.

Chávez commented Thursday, ''At last a prosecutor and a judge issued orders to arrest people who should have been imprisoned a long time ago.''

A day earlier the president had condemned the fact that there are judges in Venezuela ''who sell their rulings for 3,000 to 30,000 dollars.''

''I was informed (of the arrest warrant) at midnight and I told the police to obey the order. And I went to bed with a smile. Later I sent for a papaya tart that my mother made so I could taste it. I don't have a grudge against anyone, I only want justice to be done,'' Chávez said.

According to the political opposition, there is a list of 25 people from among its ranks -- business, union or political leaders -- who the government has marked for arrest. Legislative deputy Luis Velásquez, of the ruling party, said ''justice authorities have been asked to take action against some 100 people considered responsible for the harm caused the country with the coup attempts and illegal labour strikes.''

But Vice-President José Vicente Rangel said that figure ''seems disproportionate.'' He added, however, ''If I were (CTV president) Ortega I'd turn myself into the court, because in Venezuela the right to due process, including the right to appeal, continues to reign.''

CTV secretary-general Manuel Cova announced that Ortega had gone into hiding and that the union federation would bring the case to the International Labour Organisation (ILO) as evidence of the violation of labour rights in Venezuela.

Before going underground, Ortega said in radio and television interviews that judge Moreno's arrest orders ''are just the beginning of an escalation organised by the upper government echelons to liquidate the opposition leaders.''

Ortega pointed out that Moreno served last year as defence attorney to Richard Peñalver, a pro-Chávez Caracas city councillor who was among those accused of opening gunfire on an opposition march on Apr 11, killing 18 people.

The incident was part of the social chaos in the days preceding the failed coup that removed Chávez from power for 48 hours.

In issuing the arrest warrants, Moreno referred only to the Prosecutor General's request, which orders Ortega and Fernández to appear in court to hear the charges against them.

The accusations of rebellion and treason reflect the government's stance that the two are involved in supporting the attempted coup of April 2002, and that they continued to seek his ouster, according to Chávez.

The other charges are related to the two men's role in leading the strike that ended Feb 4. The work stoppage practically paralysed Venezuela's all-important oil industry and closed down factories and shops.

''We have not engaged in any actions that are not covered by the constitution,'' said opposition leader Albis Muñoz, vice-president of Fedecámaras.

Rafael Alfonso, a business executive in the food industry and an opposition delegate to the OAS-led talks, commented that Fernández's arrest ''is simply a provocation.''

Criminal lawyer Alberto Arteaga told IPS that ''the arrest orders for Ortega and Fernández are mistaken not only in intent but in form, because the two should only be imprisoned if they are likely to flee, which prior to the arrest warrants was not the case, as day after day they appeared in public and on television.''

Across the board, the opposition considers Fernández's arrest -- so soon after its representatives and government delegates signed a pact against violence and in favour of peace and democratic values -- proof that the Chávez administration lacks the political will to resolve the country's ongoing crisis.

People's Defender Germán Mundaraín, who heads the so-called citizen's branch of the government created by the 1999 constitution, says ''there may have been excesses in apprehending Fernández, but above all else justice must be done. The people demand an end to impunity.''

www.sltrib.com

Former President Carter tells a "town meeting" at Snowbird's Cliff Lodge on Thursday that the United States should intensify its peace efforts in the Middle East and focus on aiding poorer nations.

BY DAWN HOUSE and PAUL ROLLY THE SALT LAKE TRIBUNE

    SNOWBIRD -- Former President Carter, speaking in Utah on Thursday night, said that the great animosity toward the United States overseas is the result of America abandoning peace efforts in the Middle East.     He also noted that, while the United States provides weapons to the rest of the planet, less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the nation's gross national product -- the least amount of any developed nation -- goes to giving assistance to the world's poor.     Carter, 78, was appearing at a private "town meeting" with 300 donors and friends to raise money for the Atlanta-based Carter Center, which promotes peace, democracy and world health. He was accompanied by his wife, Rosalynn.     After a presentation about the work of the center, Carter opened the room to questions, but his starstruck audience mostly avoided the issue of war with Iraq, and he did not mention it directly.     One man did want to know if Carter, as reported in Britain's Daily Mirror, had signed a petition opposing going to war. Carter said the story was not true, that reporters had come to his Sunday school while he was there, but he told them he did not give interviews in church.     Since Feb. 6, when Secretary of State Colin Powell brought the U.S. case against Saddam Hussein to the U.N. Security Council, Carter has refused numerous other requests seeking comment.     In his most recent statement about Iraq, issued Jan. 31, he said "any belligerent move by Saddam against a neighbor would be suicidal" with the country under intense monitoring from satellite surveillance and the U.N. inspection team.     "If Iraq does possess concealed weapons, as is quite likely," Carter had said, "Saddam would use them only in the most extreme circumstances, in the face of an invasion of Iraq, when all hope of avoiding the destruction of his regime is lost."     Carter did not comment Thursday on Powell's recent address, but he did have great praise for the secretary of state.     "Colin Powell is caught in difficult circumstances," Carter said. "I'm glad he's there."     Carter also said he hoped President Bush and future administrations would want to take advantage of his expertise and the resources of the Carter Center.     He said he consulted past presidents during his own administration, but that Bush had not contacted him in the past two years -- until last week.     "I had written op-ed pieces somewhat critical" of the Bush administration, Carter said, implying that is what prompted the call. He didn't elaborate.     On Saturday at Snowbird, a fund-raising auction will be held for the not-for-profit, nongovernmental Carter Center, which the Carters founded in 1982.     Among items to be auctioned is a coffee table handcrafted by the former, one-term president.     The auction is closed, but the public may view items and enter bids by visiting www.cartercenter.org.     The Carters will be in Utah through Sunday.     The Carter Center's peace initiatives in the past year included Carter's trip to Cuba, efforts to promote dialogue in Venezuela and missions to oversee elections in Sierra Leone, Mali and Jamaica.     The center also has ongoing projects to eradicate diseases in Africa and Latin America.     Carter became the third president to win the Nobel Peace Prize, when he was honored in October for his efforts in negotiating solutions to conflicts worldwide.     President Theodore Roosevelt got his for negotiating the end of the Russo-Japanese War in 1905 and President Wilson for his role in the 1919 Versailles Conference after World War I.     While in the White House, Carter helped secure the 1978 Camp David accords for peace between Israel and Egypt. Since his defeat by Ronald Reagan in 1980, Carter has promoted human rights and most recently, criticized U.S. leaders' "preeminent obsession" with Iraq while not pressing for resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or pressuring North Korea to stop developing nuclear bombs.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, February 21, 2003 By: David Coleman

South Florida's Sun-Sentinel newspaper reports that Venezuela's ambassador to India, Walter Marquez has asked the US FBI to investigate a man who made false allegations against him, accusing him of helping to funnel money to terrorists in Afghanistan.

According to the report, published today, FBI spokeswoman Judy Orihuela confirmed that Marquez met an FBI agent in Miami yesterday to file complaint after traveling from his New Delhi embassy to respond to last month allegations by a rebel Venezuelan Air Force (FAV) pilot who accused Marquez and President Hugo Chavez Frias of transferring $1 million to the Taliban and Al Qaeda shortly after the September 11 (2001) attacks on New York's 'Twin Towers.'

Juan Diaz Castillo, who had flown Venezuela's Presidential plane until he was kicked out of the Air Force and joined elements in Venezuela's radical opposition, made the spurious accusations last month from self-imposed exile Miami, saying that the money was disguised as humanitarian aid to Afghanistan and claiming that Ambassador Marquez had facilitated the deal.

Writing in Florida's Sun-Sentinel, reporter Sandra Hernandez says "the case underscores the growing role South Florida is playing in Venezuela's mounting political crisis ... during the past month, key opposition leaders have attended rallies in Miami and dissident military officials such as Castillo have shown up in Florida to denounce alleged plots. Now Venezuelan government officials appear to be using the same tactic to plead their case before the international community on Miami's shores."

Hernandez insists that Marquez says Castillo is lying ... "he displayed letters and bank receipts during a news conference at the Venezuelan Consulate in Miami to prove that the government made legitimate contributions of $1 million to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to be used for Afghan aid."  Marquez said that an additional $1 million was given to the Indian government for an earthquake relief fund.

Castillo had made the accusations after fleeing Venezuela in January ... he said he feared for his family's safety and had sought asylum in the United States ... but he had apparently gone underground Thursday as the FBI investigation kicked off.

Venezuelan anti-constitutional rebels in Florida are reported as saying the presence of Venezuelan government officials in Miami is "simply a public relations move ... the government is pleading their case in Miami because it has the benefit of the English- and Spanish-speaking world," according to Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce executive Francisco Gonzalez.  "It is clear that Chavez has lost sympathy, and the standard line that the opposition is a bunch of crazy people and Chavez is the victim is being eroded by their own tactics."

The Florida Sun-Sentinel reports Marquez as saying he was responding to the allegation in Miami because of the current crisis in Venezuela.  He is also named in a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the watchdog group Judicial Watch which filed suit last month on behalf of the family of a woman killed in the Twin Towers attack. He reiterates that "I have never received information or instructions to give money to Al Qaeda."

Questioned on possible solutions to Venezuela's domestic-political crisis, Marquez says "the only way out of this current crisis is a political agreement ... the government is not in a position to break the opposition nor is the opposition in a position to break the government ... the government and the opposition are taking the country into a profound and worsening crisis. In the end, the government and the opposition will disappear some day, but the country will remain, and we have to fight for the survival of Venezuela."

South Florida's Venezuelan expats said they fear the latest round of arrests (Fedecamaras Fernandez) will provoke a new exodus and further cripple Venezuela's fragile economy ... Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce executive Francisco Gonzalez says "I don't think this latest action will do anything to stop the exodus because it is clear that there are going to be retaliations against the leaders of the strike."

Magin Briceno, quoted as a Venezuelan member of the (Florida) Weston Chamber of Commerce says "this is the worst message that could be sent out ... we were hoping that, after the strike, the situation would ease a bit ... but this seems to make the situation now worse ... everyday we receive dozens of calls from people there who want to know if we can help them."

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, February 21, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

Anti terrorism police from the UK are in Venezuelan to investigate the man they arrested in London Gatwick Airport for carrying a live hand grenade in his luggage after flying into London on a British Airways flight from Caracas.

The 37-year-old man, Mohammed Rahaham Alan is believed to have been traveling on false Venezuelan documents, as a government official said this week that both the man's passport and identity cards were forged. 

The address at which Rahaham claims he lived in Venezuela has been visited, and a family of the same name do live there ... but the house has been unoccupied for over a month, according to neighbors.

The man appeared in court in London earlier this week where he was charged was possessing an article with the intention of committing a terrorist act.