www.fortwayne.com Posted on Thu, Feb. 20, 2003 From staff, wire reports

WASHINGTON - The United States recorded a $435.2 billion trade deficit for 2002, the largest imbalance in history, as the weak global economy set back American exports while imports of autos and other consumer goods were hitting all-time highs.

Even in agricultural products, normally a U.S. bulwark, Americans bought more imported wine, cheese and other foods than American farmers were able to sell abroad - resulting in only the second U.S. trade deficit in agricultural products on record.

In another report released today, sharply higher energy prices and increased auto prices pushed wholesale prices up sharply in January.

The Commerce Department reported today the trade deficit for all of last year was up 21.5 percent from the $358.3 billion trade gap recorded in 2001 and surpassed the old record deficit of $378.7 billion set in 2000.

By country, the United States ran up the largest trade gap with China, a deficit of $103.1 billion, marking the third straight year that the United States has recorded its largest trade deficit with that nation. It pushed the former front-runner in this category, Japan, into second place.

In addition to the record for all of 2002, the United States set a new monthly high of $44.2 billion in December, up 10.5 percent from the previous record set in November of $40.0 billion.

The Labor Department reported inflation at the wholesale level shot up a sharp 1.6 percent in January, led by a huge 4.8 percent surge in energy prices.

Excluding the often volatile energy and food prices, wholesale inflation was up 0.9 percent.

January's increases followed declines of 0.1 percent in the overall index and 0.5 percent in the core rate in December.

Most of the increase in energy prices came from gasoline, up 13.7 percent in January after declining 1.2 percent in December. Fears over a war with Iraq and a general strike which cut production in Venezuela, a key oil supplier, drove up oil prices during the month.

Prices for passenger cars and light trucks rose 3.5 percent, as manufacturers cut back on incentive programs. Those prices had fallen 2.1 percent in December.

Wholesale food prices rose 1.6 percent in January, after a 0.4 percent gain in December, mostly because of an 18.2 percent increase for vegetable prices.

In a third report, the government said the number of newly laid off workers filing unemployment claims jumped to a seven-week high of 402,000 last week.

www.cbc.ca Last Updated Thu, 20 Feb 2003 11:11:20

TORONTO - A war against Iraq could drive already-high oil prices up even more, possibly past $50 US a barrel, a Canadian bank economist cautioned Thursday.

Oil prices are up on war jitters"We believe that the war premium on oil prices amounts to as much as $4 US a barrel and prices could spike above $50 US a barrel if there is a war against Iraq," Earl Sweet, assistant chief economist at BMO Financial Group, said in a commentary.

If a war does happen and oil prices spike upward, the increase likely won't last for long. Governments will likely free up some of their strategic reserves to take the upward pressure off prices, Sweet said.

"War issues aside, given recent significant increases in OPEC output and the usual sharp decline in demand during the spring, we expect oil prices to ease from their first quarter highs and to average $25.75 US per barrel in 2003, and $22.75 US per barrel in 2004," he said.

On Thursday, West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, was trading at $37.18 US per barrel.

Rising oil costs have been hitting Canadian consumers in their wallets. Higher oil prices have pushed up the cost of gasoline and home heating oil sharply in recent weeks.

The national average for a litre of regular gasoline hit 82 cents this week, up 1.3 cents from the previous week, according to consulting firm MJ Ervin & Associates Inc. The average price of home heating oil jumped 0.4 cents to 68.7 cents a litre.

BMO Nesbitt Burns said energy prices rose 13 per cent alone in January.

"There is no question that the driving forces behind the oil price increase have been the war premium caused by ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and the strike-induced sharp reduction in output in Venezuela," Sweet said.

The same gloomy international political forces sent world investors into traditionally safe havens such as gold, he added.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, February 20, 2003 By: Kira Marquez Perez

Date: Thu, 20 Feb 2003 15:05:01 +0100 From: Kira Marquez Perez marquez@uni-duesseldorf.de To: editor@vheadline.com Subject: About the coup

Dear Editor:  The coup d'etat in Venezuela on April 11, 2002, was a very well planned event. One or two weeks before, the main leaders traveled to Washington to meet some representatives of the US State Department. During several weeks, the conspirators had been organizing secret meetings. Some Generals have now even revealed that they had been planning everything for more than a year.  Isaac Perez Recao (paramilitary of the worst reputation, owner of the company Venoco and ex-boss of Dictator Pedro Carmona Estanga, to whom several weapons and fake identity documents were confiscated) and Daniel Romero (private secretary of corrupt ex-President Carlos Andres Perez) stated (once Chavez had been forced out of office) that they had started to organize the complot several months before in different meetings that took place not only in Caracas but also abroad: Miami, Washington, Madrid, etc.

The Chuao demonstration on April 1, 2002, was no peaceful demonstration at all.

The real goal of this demonstration was clearly exposed by Carlos Ortega, Enrique Mendoza, Guaicaipuro Lameda and others. Anyone can ask for TV reports of that day and he or she can see in these reports how these "gentlemen" shouted: "Let's go to Miraflores to get rid of Chavez!"

As soon as this demonstration arrived at El Silencio, two armored vehicles (called La Ballena and El Rinoceronte) belonging to the Policia Metropolitana (directed by "opposition" leader Alfredo Pena) were sent to attack the persons that were congregated in the surroundings of the Palace of government (Miraflores). Their mission was to dissipate the multitude and make some space for the attacks. Clear images of the Policia Metropolitana shooting on the people can be seen in videos taken on April 11th and on the following days.

On April 11, between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m., the people began to hear shooting. Some of the first dead and injured started to fall on the streets without any obvious explanation (most of the dead were supporters of President Chavez). At the beginning, nobody knew exactly where the shooting came from. However, a few minutes later it was evident that there were snipers shooting from the roofs of the Hotels Eden and Ausonia. Many dead fell directly in front of the Palace. Other Venezuelans were murdered at the Bolero Corner (esquina Bolero) and several others were razed close to the Fermin Toro High school (Liceo Fermin Toro) and at the Baralt avenue.

The actions of the snipers, as well as the deaths in the surroundings of the Palace, revealed, even with more clarity, the real intentions of this "demonstration." These snipers were not casually there. They were part of a well-thought plan to overthrow the democratically elected government.

They needed an excuse. They needed dead people, violence, etc. to justify a coup in a country where liberty and democracy were absolutely respected; in a country in which nobody had been punished nor followed for political reasons, where not even one newspaper, radio or TV station had been censored (although they actually deserved it) and where the widest freedom of expression existed.

Therefore, the "opposition" had to fabricate a motive to justify the conspiracy, using for this purpose one of the most macabre expressions of organized crime I have ever seen. The seven alleged snipers were immediately set free by the government of Dictator Pedro Carmona Estanga (an additional proof of the whole complot). In the morning of Saturday (April 12), explicit orders were received from Carlos Molina Tamayo (now s fugitive from Venezuelan justice) to set the snipers free. These seven individuals left the country immediately.

The participation of the Venezuelan media in the coup was decisive.

As the confrontations were taking place in the surroundings of Palace, President Chavez tried to speak to the country on Radio and TV to call the people to remain calm and sensible. However, as soon as his image appeared on the screen, interferences began and a noise silenced his voice. In a similar way, the signals of Venezolana de Television (VTV) and Radio Nacional (the two channels of the State) were intervened by the 'putschists.' At 8:00 p.m., all transmissions of VTV were suspended and the television screen turned black. Viewers could only hear a man's voice, that identified himself as Captain Alonso Rodriguez, who announced the cessation of the transmissions in the State channel and his support to the coup-d'etat. There was also sabotage to telephone communication.

The Venezuelan media did not only burden the country with their lies and dodges and create the situation of confrontation that was present at that moment, but, additionally, on April 11, they went on to a new phase: they kidnapped the truth, censored information and silenced the government of Mr. Chavez.

To achieve this, Gustavo Cisneros had built a high-tech operation centre in Mexico with specialized staff from his company: DirecTV (he built it two months before the coup). In the April 13, 2002 edition of El Universal (when Chavez had been kidnapped and the 'putschists' were enjoying their few hours of power) a proud statement from Mr. Hector Pena (executive president of DirecTV) appeared, in which he actually confirmed the use of this operation center in Mexico to support the coup. Additionally, Pena stated that Cisneros had remained in contact with this transmission center during the entire coup. It is really surprising how a couple of technicians hired by Gustavo Cisneros were able to cut off the entire Venezuelan communication system and silence the President in such an important moment as that.

Where was CONATEL (the National Council of Telecommunications) as this was happening? Definitely, this state organism must remain watchful in the future in relation to such sabotages. Mistakes such as those committed on April 11 cannot be repeated.

On the evening of April 11, military pronouncements against the constitutional government of President Chavez began. One of the Generals that expressed his support to the coup was Luis Camacho Kairuz (Deputy Interior & Justice Minister, who had been placed in that office by the traitor Luis Miquilena).  All that was happening, reminded us of the persistent calls promoted in most TV programs and newspaper articles for supporting the coup. These calls, which were made by several members of the so-called "opposition,"  took place almost every day before the coup and were particularly significant on the morning of April 11.

An open conspiracy and a barefaced abuse of the liberty of expression ... the press can not be used to promote and support a coup but believe it or not: That does happen in our beautiful Venezuela!

Chavez was arrested and taken to Fuerte Tiuna. Afterwards, he was moved to the island: La Orchila. Several of the rebel Generals wanted to send President Chavez to the United States so that he could be prosecuted there (I have no idea under which charges they wanted him to be prosecuted). Actually, the only ones that had violated the law and should be prosecuted were the putschists themselves. In any case, there was a plane in La Orchila ready for take-off.

• Dictator Pedro Carmona Estanga designated himself  "President." He dissolved the National Assembly (Asamblea Nacional), the Supreme Court of Justice (Tribunal Supremo de Justicia) and the National Electoral College (Consejo Nacional Electoral).

Additionally, he removed governors from their offices (although they had been democratically-elected in separate elections that had nothing to do with the Presidential ones). He also dismissed several other authorities from President Chavez' government. The dictator also withdrew Venezuela from the OPEC and decided to change the country's name. Just like that!

Immediately, pursuit and attacks against ministers and representatives of President Chavez' government were initiated. Several of these attacks were carried out by the DISIP and the PTJ and were leaded by Colonel Gonzalo Lopez. Among the victims of these attacks we can mention: Ramon Rodriguez Chacon (Interior & Justice Minister), who was brutally thrashed following orders of the Mayor of Chacao Leopoldo Lopez (who belongs to the "opposition"), or deputy Tarek William Saab, member of the National Assembly, who was also mishandled.

With sadism the TV cameras, who knew in advance what was going to happen, filmed these events.

In the meantime, the media insistently repeated that President Chavez had resigned. However, many people did not believe such a lie (in spite of the strong propaganda), since they never showed any proof of it (it is now clear that the 'putschists' were preparing a falsification of the supposed resignation document). Actually, this subject of the falsifications and montages is quite common in the "opposition." One of the last examples of their lies were the 4 million signatures that they claimed to collect on February 2, 2003. Once again: JUST A LIE (I already mentioned some of their other lies and montages in my article: the attitude of the Venezuelan opposition is simply embarrassing).

By the way, with so many proven evidences of their behavior, it wouldn't surprise me at all to find out that the three soldiers found dead a few days ago in Guarenas were killed by the "opposition" just to blame the government, as they did it with the snipers on April 11, or with the Portuguese Gouveia on December 6, 2002. Now they're even trying to connect Venezuela with Al-Qaeda to justify an intervention. This is really too much. I always ask myself: How far can these people go?

Well, back to April 11, 2002: Millions of Venezuelans started to congregate on the streets of Caracas, Maracay and several other cities to ask for the return of their constitutional President. At the same time, several loyal military groups, leaded by General Raul Baduel, General Garcia Montoya, General Jorge Luis Garcia Carneiro, Colonel Jesus Morao and others, expressed their repudiation of the coup. Things were getting more and more complicated for the conspirators. The multitude of Venezuelans shouting in the streets: "Chavez. We want our president Chavez!" was really impressive! Later, a fax arrived from the Turiamo military base in which our President confirmed once again that he had not resigned (this fax was written in Chavez' handwriting and was signed by him).

While this was happening, all commercial channels: Venevision, Globovision, RCTV and Televen were showing something else. Some of them were even presenting cartoons (and that was really strange, since before that, they had been repeating over and over, the images of April 11 and the auto-designation of Dictator Carmona Estanga).

Nobody knew what exactly was happening because the Venezuelan press was not interested in showing it. It was a report from CNN that allowed many Venezuelans (unfortunately only those who had cable-TV) to get in touch with reality.

Venevision, RCTV, Globovision and Televen never showed images of the millions of persons on the streets that were asking for the return of President Chavez. They also didn't show the escape of personalities of the "opposition," such as reporter Patricia Poleo and several others, who left the Palace of Miraflores appalled when they realized that loyal troops and civilians were determined to recover democracy in Venezuela. You should have seen those images! They're really good!

In any case, they actually had no reason to run, since nobody planned to do anything to them.

But, as we say in Venezuela: "cada ladron juzga por su condicion" and that's the only reason why they were scared: They knew exactly what they had done. Most of these people are still talking nonsense on TV and that's the best proof that nothing has happened to them . But, I think it's time that they start paying for what they've done, and it's very good to know that LEGAL processes have finally begun against Ortega and Fernandez! Very good!

April 12-14 there was absolute censorship in the Venezuelan press. Nobody was allowed to make any commentaries whatsoever in favor of President Chavez or his people. RCTV production manager Andres Izarra, who was in charge of the news in that channel, (probably one of the few Venezuelan reporters that still has ethics and that understands his enormous responsibility), decided to resign because he did not agree with lying in such a  barefaced manner. The editorial board at RCTV was actually forcing him to lie. Izarra indicated that RCTV did not allow him to show the huge pro-Chavez demonstrations on the streets of Caracas; they didn't allow him to tell the truth about Chavez' resignation (although it was absolutely clear at that moment that he had not resigned); and they did not allow him to attend the press-conference that took place in Maracay with the loyal military troops. Maria Gabriela Chavez (the President's daughter), even had to communicate with the international press (she talked to Telemundo) to announce that her father had not resigned, because she was not allowed to talk in any of the Venezuelan channels.

• Finally, on the evening of Saturday, April 13, Dictator Pedro Carmona Estanga was arrested by Colonel Jose Gregorio Montilla for "violating the Constitution."

On April 14, a few hours before dawn, President Chavez was rescued by loyal soldiers from La Orchila and was returned to Miraflores, where he was received by his people with songs, applause and even tears of happiness, such as it has been shown in many videos taken on that day, and which RCTV, Venevision, Globovision and Televen have never wanted to show.

Kira Marquez Perez marquez@uni-duesseldorf.de

www.forbes.com Reuters, 02.20.03, 9:38 AM ET

CARACAS, Venezuela, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Rebel Venezuelan oil workers said they will stage protests Thursday outside offices and installations of state-oil firm PDVSA, following the overnight arrest of a strike leader on rebellion charges. The dissident oil workers -- 12,000 of whom have been fired by President Hugo Chavez -- were not planning to take over installations or occupy PDVSA offices, organizers said. The workers pegged output at 1.4 million barrels per day, compared with 3.1 million barrels before they launched a crippling strike on Dec. 2 meant to force Chavez from power. The government says output stands at more than 2 million bpd. Before the strike, Venezuela was the world's fifth largest oil exporter. The previously scheduled protest was expected to take on added momentum following the shock arrest of business chief and opposition leader Carlos Fernandez. Heavily armed police grabbed him at a restaurant in Caracas before bundling him into a car. Union chief Carlos Ortega, who spearheaded the two-month opposition strike started in December to try and oust Chavez, also faces a fresh arrest warrant for civilian rebellion, sabotage and other charges. Ortega has not been arrested. PDVSA officials at the port of Jose said Exxon Mobil Corp. > have begun loading cargo of Cerro Negro synthetic crude, marking the first crude loading by a foreign oil major since the early days of the strike. "We are loading the ship," said loading manager Rubin Rodriguez. He added that the port was secure with the national guard in place and he expected no trouble from strikers.

cbs.marketwatch.com By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 3:37 PM ET Feb. 20, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Crude prices declined Thursday, breaking a six-session rise on the back of mixed data on U.S. crude stocks and the expiration of the March crude contracts.

"Selling begets selling and nobody wants to be the last man standing especially at these 'nosebleed' levels," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for March delivery closed lower by 37 cents at $36.79 a barrel.

Earlier, the benchmark contract briefly touched $37.55 -- a level not seen since spot prices topped out at $37.89 in September 2000. It gained $2.68 per barrel between Feb. 10 and Feb. 19.

April crude, which became the lead-month contract at the session's close, slipped by 92 cents to close at $34.74 per barrel.

Also on Nymex, gold futures prices closed higher at $353.10 an ounce amid a weaker U.S. dollar and growing global tensions. See Metals Stocks.

Analysts blamed the oil price pull back on the expiration of the March crude contracts as well as confusing data from two key sources.

"After the mixed data traders are dazed and confused -- the DOE says crude stockpile rose while the API says they fell," said Kevin Kerr, analyst at Weiss Research in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. "Traders don't know what to believe with skewed data like this."

Early Thursday, the Energy Department said the nation's inventories of crude oil rose by 3.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 14 compared to the prior week. But the American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.3 million-barrel decline in crude stocks.

Aggregate crude stocks stood at 272.9 million and 268.3 million barrels, according to the Energy Department and API, respectively.

On a year-over-year basis, however, crude inventories are down more than 15 percent, the equivalent of 50.4 million barrels, the government report said, amid tight import supplies brought on by Venezuela's general strike and war tensions in the Middle East.

"Crude-oil inventories remain critically low, just slightly above the lower operational inventory level of 270 million barrels," said Thorsten Fischer, an economist at Economy.com, referring to the government data. That's the minimum level required to keep refineries running normally.

Last week, the Energy Department reported its lowest level for inventories in 27 years -- just under 270 million barrels.

"Supplies are still tight and the concern is there will be a continued imbalance between an immediate replenishment of stockpiles and demand," said Infinity Brokerage's Person, adding: "there does not look like there is an immediate solution and tensions are on the rise in Venezuela and in the Middle East."

The latest data came as a surprise to some industry analysts. Fimat USA had been looking for inventories to rise by 1.75 million barrels, while IFR Pegasus had expected crude stocks to fall by 1 million to 3 million barrels.

Starting Wednesday, the API and Energy Department will release their weekly data on petroleum supplies at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time, an hour and a half later than previously scheduled so traders will be able to see the reports during the trading session.

$40 oil still possible

Some analysts were still optimistic that the tight inventory situation could take prices to highs not seen since the Gulf War in the early 1990s.

Oil prices could soon hit $40 a barrel, said John Vail, an analyst at Mizuho Securities USA, based in Chicago, with a stockpiling trend taking part of the blame.

"China's crude imports are rising rapidly as they plan a significant strategic petroleum reserve," he said, adding that the country's imports were up 77 percent in January, representing an additional 880,000 barrels per day of crude demand.

"As with many commodities, war fear inventory build is a major factor," Vail said.

And as war becomes more likely, "crude oil prices have started a rally, which will continue and even accelerate during the run-up to military action," said Economy.com's Fischer. See Countdown to War.

On the other hand, if investors assume that war with Iraq is closer, this could lead to some speculation that oil prices "could settle back down as OPEC promised to 'open the spickets' in case military action occurred," said Person.

In other energy news Thursday, Nigerian oil workers met with government officials in a bid to end a strike that began Saturday. Production and exports haven't yet been affected.

In Venezuela, a country still suffering from a labor strike that began Dec. 2, opposition leaders threatened to call a new strike in response to the arrest of strike co-leader Carlos Fernandez. The general labor strike ended this month, except in the oil sector.

Oil product supplies fall

The API and Energy Department also reported declines in inventories of petroleum-product stocks for last week.

Distillate inventories declined by 3.2 million to total 107 million barrels, while gasoline supplies fell by 1.8 million to 210.7 million barrels, the API said.

The Energy Department posted a 4.6 million-barrel fall for distillates to total 103.6 million barrels. And gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels to 211.2 million barrels in the latest week.

The distillate results reflect "high demand caused by severe winter weather and cold temperatures, especially in the Northeast," said Fischer.

IFR Pegasus had forecast drawdowns of 2 million to 4 million barrels in distillates and of 1 million to 3 million barrels in gasoline supplies. Fimat had been on the lookout for distillates falling by 4 million barrels but gasoline stocks increasing by 2 million barrels.

Following the supply update, March gasoline eased back by 3.64 cents to 96.58 cents a gallon. The March contract for heating oil fell 4.06 cents to $1.0587 per gallon.

Meanwhile, refinery utilization rose by 2.2 percent to 87.8 percent of capacity, the API reported, while the Energy Department said utilization rose by 2.3 percent to 88.8 percent.

Supply data finally lifts natural gas

In other energy trading, natural-gas futures closed higher, finally finding support from the larger-than-expected decline in supplies.

On Nymex, March natural gas closed at $6.162 per million British thermal units, up 2.8 cents after trading mostly flat during the session. It touched an intraday high at $6.25, a level last seen in February 2001, when prices reached $7.10 per million British thermal units.

The contract gained nearly 4 percent in Wednesday's action.

Also Thursday, the Energy Department reported a 203 billion cubic fall in inventories as of Feb. 14.

By two key measures, total inventories of 1.168 trillion cubic feet are significantly lower -- 868 billion cubic feet less than the year-ago level and 436 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, the government said.

Fimat expected a contraction of 168 billion cubic feet, while IFR Pegasus was looking for a decrease of 150 billion to 170 billion cubic feet. A year earlier, stocks contracted by 124 billion cubic feet.

In the equities arena, most oil-service shares traded higher. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX: news, chart, profile) rose more than 1 percent. See Energy Stocks.

The Reuters/CRB Index, a broad-based measure of the commodity futures market, closed at 246.5, down 0.6 percent. Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco