www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, February 20, 2003 By: Oscar Heck

VHeadline.com commentarist Oscar Heck writes: Looking back to the well planned, yet failed attempt at getting Chavez out of office by using "el paro" (the stoppage) as a major "ousting" tool, one can (perhaps) gather the following information:

• Typically, in Venezuela, it is very difficult to begin any legal proceedings between the beginning of December and about the third to fourth weeks in January. Most judges and lawyers are on lengthy vacations, often out of country. (If the Chavez government wanted to attempt to stop the stoppage legally, they would have to wait until at least the third week in January. This in fact happened.)

• Typically, in Venezuela, as in many countries, December is the "spending month," the traveling month and the month in which most employees get their bonuses. (Make certain that the shelves are empty and that there is no gasoline so that people have the worst Christmas vacation ever experienced...and convince the people that it is the fault of Chavez. Psychological warfare?...oh, and bombard them with anti-Chavez propaganda since they are not going anywhere during their vacation and are probably watching TV most of the time).

• If the Chavez government attempts at re-stabilizing the country by using the severe methods that most governments would use in times of crisis, then call Chavez a "dictator" and "communist" ... or as was insinuated on television today ... "Hitler." (This is now happening).

Here is my analysis of recent events.  Some readers may say that I am paranoid ... as they also accuse Chavez of being.  However, looking at past world history, what I am about to propose as a theory, is not so far-fetched.

Here is the scenario ... Chavez had planned to travel to Malaysia on Saturday, February 22 ... on what apparently was to have been a very important trip. There has been a shroud of secrecy recently as to why he has cancelled the trip.

"Mystery surrounds Chavez' decision NOT to travel to Malaysia"

The results of the "El Firmazo" (the "signing") * were supposed to be presented a few days after the "Firmazo" itself took place on February 2, 2003. However, the presentation of the results was postponed until Wednesday, February 19, 2003 at 7:00 p.m. local Venezuela time, and was transmitted by Globovision television ... one of the privately-owned television stations most associated with anti-Chavez propaganda.

• The "signing" was a signing of petitions geared at forcing Chavez to resign and call early elections, and was organized by the coordinated efforts of:

• Coordinadora Democratica (Democratic Coordinator), one of the principal anti-Chavez movements.

• The CTV, one of the major Venezuelan union groups.

-Fedecamaras, one of the major Venezuelan business associations.

-Gente de Petroleo (Petroleum People), one of PDVSA's union movements.

• Perhaps the Cisneros and the Mendozas, the two multi-billionaire Venezuelan  families who basically have the monopolies of major Venezuelan markets?

Note: Most of the above have used mostly illegitimate and immoral methods.

Today, Thursday, February 20, 2003 (two days before Chavez was to leave for Malaysia), the major papers are front-lining the claimed success of "El Firmazo."

Supposing, that the opposition's plan (possibly thwarted now due to last night's arrest of Fedecamaras president Carlos Fernandez) was to attempt another "coup" while Chavez was abroad ... the timing would again have been perfect. Today, Thursday and tomorrow, Friday would have given the media and all other coup plotters the necessary two days to "justify" a take over of Venezuela on Saturday, February 22.  The numbers of "El Firmazo," the fact that the country is in a mess (created by the opposition themselves) and the fact that Chavez is "as usual" traveling abroad when the country is in such a mess!

This morning on Globovision, they were calling Chavez a "dictator" because Carlos Fernandez was arrested ... they were saying that Chavez is now a "kidnapper." Why is this? If someone has committed a serious crime such as treason, does the police come to one's home and politely ask " Do you want to come with us to jail?" I do not think so, especially not in the USA, which many of the opposition seem to glorify...  see: www.petitiononline.com

Now, about the "El Firmazo" results, based on figures presented by the opposition, which may not be very reliable, however, in my opinion, close to reality:

1)  36.89% of the voting population want amendments to the Constitution and abolition of 47 of 49 laws ("Ley Habilitante") which include Bank and Land reforms. (If, I am not mistaken, many of these laws were mostly approved nearing  the end of 2001. This is when the anti-Chavez movement began to escalate dramatically).

2)  30.17% of the voting population agree with writing a letter to the "International Community." (Probably a letter asking for international support to oust Chavez, the democratically-elected President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela).

3)  29.96% to 26.96% of the voting population want Chavez out of power either by binding referendum or simply by not recognizing the he is President ... that is by abolition of his post or by his resignation. (Sounds like much less than the % of people that wanted Brian Mulroney out of office while he was Prime Minister of Canada. He was democratically elected and Canadians waited).

4)  23.7% of the voting population supports the people that have been fired from PDVSA. (Not close to the vast support alleged by the opposition).

5)  22.31% of the voting population want the reversal of laws aimed at controlling media content. (This means that approximately 40% of the people who signed petitions do essentially support some kind of television programming regulation).

6)  10.53% of the population wants all pro-Chavez National Assembly members to be relieved of their (elected) posts. (Does this represent the true radical wing of the opposition? Makes sense to me. This  may therefore mean that approximately 2/3 of the people that signed still have some sense of respect for the democratic system of elections. 1/3 of the opposition does not).

The way I see the "El Firmazo", is that Chavez has just had a "free" poll handed to him and paid for by the opposition. If 85% of the anti-Chavez people signed the petition (maximum 4,426,921), it would represent 5,208,142 possible eligible voters or 43% of the voting population. So, if there were elections today, and 85% of the voting population showed up to vote, Chavez would win at least 57% of the votes.

48% of the signatures came from 6 of the 25 geographical areas of Venezuela (24 plus exterior). The 6 geographical areas represent the main anti-Chavez areas, the major ones being the Caracas and Maracaibo (the home of PDVSA).

Even if the anti-Chavez people have their binding referendum in August 2003, what will it accomplish? If the referendum asks for re-elections, who will win the elections. What if Chavez wins again? What will the opposition people do then?

Maybe all the opposition supporters and anti-Chavez people can do a referendum between themselves and ask the following questions:

1)  "Maybe we should create our own independent state?" (Margarita can fit 4.5 million people and we can afford to import everything, including sardines from Portugal).

2. "Maybe we should leave Venezuela all together and create a new American (USA) state somewhere on the Caribbean or maybe in the hinterlands of Alaska?" (There is oil in Alaska and cheap labor in certain parts of the Caribbean ... how about Cuba?)

When Quebecers held a referendum for separation from Canada they did not achieve the required 50% + one (they were close however). The vast majority of the voters (say, about 85%) had voted for the separatist government in power at the time of the referendum. At one time some separatists were even beginning to consider becoming Americans rather than Canadians.

Quebec is still part of Canada ... things have settled down since.

Oscar Heck oscarheck111@hotmail.com

news.ft.com By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas Published: February 20 2003 19:01 | Last Updated: February 20 2003 19:01

Venezuela's government stepped up what appeared to be a retaliatory crackdown on opponents of President Hugo Chávez on Thursday with the arrest of the business leader who led a two-month strike aimed at forcing the president's resignation.

Carlos Fernández, head of the Fedecamaras business federation, was captured by a group of heavily armed men outside a restaurant, witnesses said, and taken to the headquarters of the Disip political police in Caracas.

A judge said a warrant had been issued for the arrest of Mr Fernández on charges of "treason" and "civil rebellion". A similar warrant was also issued for Carlos Ortega, leader of the main labour union, which backed the strike in December and January.

Opposition leaders condemned the detention as evidence that Mr Chávez was drifting towards "dictatorship" and embarking on a "campaign of intimidation". Government legislators said the arrest followed correct legal procedures.

Mr Chávez, emboldened by his survival after the stoppage, has promised to jail the strike's organisers for "sabotaging" the economy and has warned that exchange controls will be used to deprive opposition-aligned businesses of foreign currency.

The strike at Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), which is producing only about half of the 3m barrels a day from before the strike, has left what was the world's fifth-largest oil-exporting economy facing a contraction of at least 15 per cent this year.

Rafael Alfonzo, an opposition negotiator in talks intended to defuse Venezuela's political deadlock, said Mr Fernández's arrest undermined an anti-violence pact signed only two days ago with the government.

The agreement was the first breakthrough in three months of negotiations backed by the Organisation of American States aimed at finding an electoral solution to the tensions between Mr Chávez and opposition groups.

Mr Fernández's arrest comes a day after Washington-based Human Rights Watch urged the Venezuelan government to investigate the murder of four opposition supporters this week.

The bodies of three junior military staff and a civilian woman who had joined dissident officers pressing for Mr Chávez's resignation were found dumped on a roadside outside Caracas.

"The circumstances strongly suggest that these were political killings," said José Miguel Vivanco, executive director of the Americas Division of Human Rights Watch.

news.ft.com By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas Published: February 20 2003 19:01 | Last Updated: February 20 2003 19:01

Venezuelan government and opposition representatives on Tuesday signed a pact condemning political violence - the first breakthrough in three months of internationally backed talks aimed at finding an electoral solution to the country's political deadlock.

The agreement, brokered by César Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organisation of American States (OAS), should ease tensions between the government of President Hugo Chávez and the alliance of opposition interest groups ranged against him, analysts said.

Venezuela has been marked by rising levels of street violence, including several deaths in recent months, as timid efforts at dialogue collapsed between Mr Chávez and his foes in the wake of last April's coup attempt prompting the involvement of the OAS.

Opponents say Mr Chávez, although democratically elected four years ago, is bent on abolishing democracy in favour of an autocratic leftist government modelled on that of Cuba's Fidel Castro.

In turn, the populist Mr Chávez, who led a failed military coup in 1992, brands the opponents of his self-styled "Bolivarian revolution" as "coup-plotters".

Among his opponents are more than 12,000 workers who have been fired from Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state oil company, following an ongoing strike that began in December and has slashed output in what was the world's fifth-largest oil producer with crippling results for the economy.

Analysts said the non-violence agreement suggested some kind of election could be in the offing in the months ahead. "The pact demonstrates that it is possible to reach agreements, and if that is possible, then anything is," said Alfredo Keller, a political consultant.

"However, the impression I have is that Chávez is not interested in an election in which he participates. He is not going to permit that the only visible head of the 'revolution' runs the risk of an electoral defeat," said Mr Keller.

Mr Chávez has in the past two weeks stepped up measures apparently aimed at shoring up his base support among the poor, a move designed to prepare for polls in which regional governors and mayors participate.

But, within the opposition camp, hopes of an early ballot, this year are being pinned on a presidential election with conspicuous signs that Manuel Cova, secretary-general of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation, is being groomed by some groups as a potential single candidate.

athena.tbwt.com By Peter  Richards IPS Article Dated 2/20/2003

PORT OF SPAIN - Keenly aware of the slow pace of their progress towards a single market and economy (CSME) and buffeted by the ill economic winds swirling around the globe, Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders have agreed to a work programme to implement the agreement by 2005.

''The present global economic liberalisation and the proliferation of regional economic and trading blocs demand that we implement the CSME as a matter of urgent priority,'' said Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Patrick Manning at the leaders' summit last weekend.

It is ''more than time'' for the CSME, first conceived in 1989, ''to see the light of day'', added his Jamaican counterpart, P.J. Patterson.

''We dare not concede to other countries rights of access for the procurement of goods and services which are not available to us,'' he warned.

The CSME, which will remove all existing restrictions on the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour flowing between the 15 member countries, was supposed to start operating this year but delays in adapting national laws coupled with bad economic news, like a drop in tourism following the Sep. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the impact of the recent hike in oil prices, retarded progress, said the leaders.

They agreed that countries in positions to become ''CSME-ready'' before 2005 should do so; Jamaica, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago signalled their intention to do so next year.

While the countries continue to push economic union, they were lukewarm to a proposal advanced by Manning for political union, many hinting that they feared having to give up political sovereignty.

Barbados Prime Minister Owen Arthur, who has lead responsibility for the CSME within CARICOM said the agreement would require ''heightened and deepened'' cooperation between nations in key areas of the economy, as well as a massive undertaking to harmonise policies and laws.

The implementation process calls for at least 400 legal enactments in member countries, he added.

Comparing the process to the creation of the European Union (EU), Arthur said the Caribbean arrangement is more challenging since the region lacks a super-national institution that can issue directives and has to wait for each country to translate its obligations into its domestic laws.

The Barbados leader said special attention should be paid to those countries lagging behind because, ''in the final analysis, the creation of a single market and single economy will depend upon the readiness of the least-ready member''.

Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Lester Bird urged his colleagues to move as quickly as possible.

”Conditions in several of our countries are at the worst they have been for some time. Economic growth has slowed, private investment, both local and foreign, has dwindled, meaningful aid has virtually disappeared, preferential markets for commodities have gone, tourism has declined and unemployment has risen.''

''These conditions are, at one and the same time, the motivation for completing the CSME quickly, and the cause of the process slowing down,” added Bird.

The region's economic problems do not appear set to end any time soon.

Oil-rich Trinidad and Tobago recently turned down a request by CARICOM states to provide a cushion against substantial increases in the price of crude oil and petroleum products as a result of a strike in oil producer Venezuela, which supplies many Caribbean nations at preferential rates, and possible war in Iraq.

They wanted Port of Spain to guarantee a ''pre-Iraq war oil price'' but Manning said that was impossible because his country has ''been experiencing difficulties of our own''.

The leaders' statement issued at the end of the two-day summit noted that at least five Caribbean states had failed to achieve positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2002 and were unexpected to do so this year.

Leaders did have some positive news: they gave the green light for the establishment of a stabilisation fund with initial capital of 60 million U.S. dollars, rising to 180 million dollars within five years.

It will serve as a buffer for countries experiencing financial difficulties, such as Dominica, which has approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance.

The move to establish the CSME comes at a time when the region is also engaged in a series of external economic negotiations, including for the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), which leaders say places significant strain on their resources.

They called for ''a high level meeting in the hemisphere to take stock and to review the scope and pace of the negotiations'' towards the FTAA, which would establish the world's largest trading bloc, grouping the nations of North, South and Central America along with the Caribbean.

CARICOM countries are also involved in challenges at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against EU sugar subsidies that, if successful, could also end an agreement that they enjoy as members of the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of nations.

The region is also moving to enhance trade arrangements with Costa Rica and Canada while exploring an offer of a partial trade agreement with the member countries of MERCOSUR - Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay.

Experts at the University of the West Indies (UWI) have recommended also that the Caribbean conclude a customs union agreement with the Central American Common Market (CACM) - Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Costa Rica - as soon as possible and before the implementation of the FTAA.

''The time frame should be no more than one year to coincide with the CSME coming into force,'' said their report, noting that the goal should be free trade between CACM and CARICOM ''with a limited list of exemptions on both sides.'' For more discussion on this article and to see what others have to say click on the link below to go to discussion forums.

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Send your comments and suggestions about this article to: editors@tbwt.net

www.usatoday.com Posted 2/20/2003 12:23 PM     Updated 2/20/2003 9:15 PM By James R. Healey, USA TODAY

The USA had more crude oil on hand last week than the week before, the government reported Thursday, an unexpected development that clubbed oil prices down from what had begun to seem like unassailable heights.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March delivery slid 37 cents from a 29-month high to $36.79 at the end of trading Thursday in New York. That was the first decline in seven sessions.

March oil contracts expired Thursday. April crude closed at $34.74, down 92 cents.

The record closing price for WTI futures is $40.42 on Oct. 10, 1990, equivalent to $55.64 today because of inflation.

In London, benchmark Brent crude fell 77 cents to $31.56.

Behind the hubbub:

The Energy Information Administration said 272.9 million barrels of crude were available in the USA, not counting the 599.3 million locked in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That was a slight improvement from 269.8 million the previous week, which was lowest since 1975.

The gain, from rising imports, was 3.1 million barrels, leaving inventories close to the 270 million barrels considered necessary to prevent refinery interruptions.

"It does indicate a tight market," said Rayola Dougher at the American Petroleum Institute, an oil industry trade organization.

API's weekly report, which coincides with EIA's, uses different methods and showed crude-oil inventories down to 268.3 million barrels from 271.6 million a week earlier. The differences with EIA are insignificant, she said.

Dougher said the 270 million was calculated in the 1980s and probably is less important now. "That 270 figure is not a magic number. Since then, the industry's much better at inventory control and computerization. We don't know how low it could go" without interruption nowadays.

Regardless, the inventories are about 50 million barrels lower than a year ago, EIA said, cautioning that the situation is acute in the Midwest, where oil inventories are "the lowest ever."

Average pump price for regular is $1.665, up from $1.661 overnight, motorists club AAA reported Thursday. Diesel is $1.751, off its record high of $1.755 Tuesday.

Concern that the EIA report was a blip instead of the start of a trend toward higher inventories prompted price rebounds overnight in foreign markets, the Oil Price Information Service reported.