www.jamaicaobserver.com Observer Reporter Thursday, February 20, 2003

JAMAICA has been named to two regional task forces that Caribbean Community (Caricom) leaders established last week to fast track the implementation of an economic union and develop an energy policy for the region, Prime Minister P J Patterson disclosed.

Patterson, who attended the 14th inter-sessional meeting of Caricom heads of government in Trinidad and Tobago last week, said Jamaica, Barbados and the host country had decided to move ahead of the 15-member grouping to get their economies ready one year earlier to participate in the imminent Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME).

"Jamaica has committed itself to be CSME ready by 2004," Patterson told reporters at Jamaica House on Monday.

The CSME, scheduled to come into force in 2005, is intended to be a single economic space comprised of most, if not all, Caricom member countries, which will allow the free flow of goods, services, financial and human resources across the region.

One of the task forces, Patterson said, was to determine the resources required by less prepared Caricom member states to bring them to a state of full readiness for implementing the CSME. In this regard, a report is to be presented to the heads of government during their conference to be held in July in Jamaica.

The formation of the CSME is being done in the shadow of the emergence of a larger hemispheric grouping -- the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) -- which will involve countries of North, Central and South America and the Caribbean and is to come into force in December 2005.

According to Patterson, who has responsibility for external negotiations among Caricom heads, last week's meeting in Trinidad and Tobago agreed that the region should negotiate the FTAA agreement as a "united force".

Patterson said regional heads set up the second task force to make recommendations regarding "a regional energy policy and strategy to deal with the issues of (oil) supplies and prices" within the framework of the CSME. The issue of energy and oil supply was discussed at last week's inter-sessional meeting in light of the rise in oil prices consequent on the threat of military attack on Iraq, one of the largest producers of oil.

Furthermore, Patterson noted, the recent general strike in Venezuela had badly affected supplies to Jamaica and other regional countries. He added that Jamaica would continue bilateral talks with Port of Spain on arrangements to supply Kingston with Liquid Natural Gas as part of "our national energy diversification strategy".

The energy task force is to also report to the Heads in July.

www.nytimes.com February 20, 2003 By NICK MADIGAN

OS ANGELES, Feb. 19 — Beyond antiwar demonstrations and troop deployments, gasoline prices that have jumped to more than $2 a gallon in some places seem to many drivers to be the most tangible evidence of the Bush administration's plans for a possible attack on Iraq.

People pumping gas from Los Angeles to Charlotte, N.C., in the past few days surmised that the oil companies were cashing in on the uncertain geopolitical climate, with the effect trickling down to the corner gas station.

"If there's a chance of the oil companies' driving up the prices, they'll do that," said Jeremy Levenson, a doctor who had just paid $30.63 — at $2.09 a gallon, the most he had ever spent — to fill the tank of his Infiniti I30 with high-octane gasoline at a Union 76 station in the Westchester district of Los Angeles.

"Who knows how much of this is artifice and how much is created by the oil companies for their own benefit?" he asked. "It's what the traffic will bear. It's capitalism."

Since late last year, the price of gasoline has risen an average of 29 cents a gallon, according to the American Petroleum Institute, a trade group representing more than 400 oil and natural gas companies.

According to AAA, the motorist club, which assembles a daily compilation of gas prices, today's national average for regular unleaded gas was $1.66 a gallon, a few cents shy of the record average, $1.71, reached on May 15, 2001. Here in California, gasoline costs more than anywhere else in the country, with drivers today paying about $1.89 a gallon for regular unleaded gas and $2.05 for premium, AAA reported. Prices in Hawaii, usually the highest, were just a cent or two less. In New York State, regular was selling today for an average for $1.76 a gallon, with premium at $1.92; in New Jersey, home to many refineries, regular was $1.55 a gallon, while premium was $1.73.

But several factors are in the mix behind rising gas prices, including the possibility of war, said John Felmy, the petroleum institute's chief economist.

"You either believe in conspiracies or you believe in market fundamentals," Mr. Felmy said. "Most consumers just see the price going up and down, but they don't look into why."

Among the main reasons for the rise in prices, he said, was a 78-day strike by oil workers in Venezuela that removed as much as 4 percent of the world's supply for oil from the market. The United States imports 9 percent of its daily oil consumption — primarily crude oil and petroleum products like diesel fuel and asphalt — from Venezuela.

A similar strike in Nigeria has also affected the marketplace, Mr. Felmy said, though on a lesser scale. And the sharply colder weather has increased demand for home heating oil.

Inventories of crude oil are low and refiners have scaled back production accordingly. Typically, they stockpile oil this time of year to produce more gas as the heavy driving summer months approach. But because they are not stockpiling now, prices will probably stay high through the spring.

"There is some nervousness about Iraq," Mr. Felmy said, "and that's created some instability in the markets. Importers, traders and refineries tend to stock up, and so some participants put their prices up. If you don't, you exhaust your supply."

Such explanations seem to be small consolation to consumers.

"My theory is that they're stacking up on profits right now for if we do go to war," said Kathy Reilly, a minivan driver in Seattle. "I think a lot of it is pure greed."

Tim Jones, a computer network administrator from Tucson, recalled that in August 1990, immediately after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the price of gasoline soared virtually overnight. "And that fuel was already here, already in the tanks, already paid for," Mr. Jones said. "It's all about money."

Earlier this month, in Ann Arbor, Mich., Kathi Kelley got behind the wheel of her Toyota Rav4 for the first time since breaking her wrist in December and said she was astonished that gas prices had gone up 25 cents a gallon since she was last on the road. Ms. Kelley said she thought there was a direct correlation between the price increases and the mounting talk of conflict.

"With the idea of war looming, prices are not going down," said Ms. Kelley, who commutes 45 minutes each way to work every day to Jackson, Mich.

While some people said they did not want to pay at the pump for war, other consumers were willing to.

"I think the war is probably inevitable and probably necessary, and if higher prices are what we need for more security and safety than I'm willing to pay that," said David Fransko, a stockbroker filling up his Ford Explorer at a Shell station in Ann Arbor.

For some, sacrifice means driving less. In Bothell, a suburb of Seattle, Guy Nguyen and his wife, Diana, both drive to work, he to Bellevue, Wash., and she to Redmond, Wash. They recently returned from a vacation to find much higher gas prices, and decided this week to start sharing one of their two cars; they own a Toyota 4-Runner S.U.V. and a Chevy Tahoe pickup truck, the latter a guzzler with a V-8 engine that gets about 12 miles a gallon on the highway. The more modest Toyota seemed the better choice.

"I've looked everywhere and it's almost two dollars," said Mr. Nguyen, a car salesman, referring to the price of premium gasoline.

AAA reported that the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas has increased in Washington State by 18 cents in the past month, to $1.55. In neighboring Idaho, prices for regular have increased nearly 15 cents in the same period, to $1.59 a gallon. "I don't blame the government, I blame the gas companies," Mr. Nguyen said. "They have to find some way to make more profits."

Gasoline station operators are not necessarily happy about the increases, since they tend to strain relationships with customers.

"We got hit with another 4-cent increase yesterday," said Tom Simon, manager of a Union 76 station in Marina del Rey, west of Los Angeles, where full-service, high-octane gas was selling today for $2.29 a gallon. "We're not here for the fast buck, but it just keeps going up."

Paradoxically, Mr. Simon said, sales have risen, as drivers top off their tanks in anticipation of further increases.

"People are still going to buy gas and they're still going to buy S.U.V.'s — at least in this area," he said, pointing to a Ford Expedition and a Cadillac Escalade being filled at the pumps.

"We're all dependent on gasoline — it's like caffeine, or sugar," said Peggy Fisher, a dance teacher who had just spent $16.89 to put almost 10 gallons of the cheapest gas in her Honda Odyssey van. "These are our addictions."

Another customer, a taxi driver, Fred Sam, said he used to be able to fill up his tank for $20. Now, Mr. Sam said, it costs $50.

"At these prices, if you only make $5 or $10 an hour, you keep having to come back and put $5 or $10 worth of gas in the cab," said Mr. Sam, who pays $500 a week to lease his taxi. "I barely break even."

Even people who say that the prospect of a war with Iraq is a pretense to raise prices seem to have adopted an attitude of resignation. Few seemed indignant.

David Elder, a carpenter who was filling up his 1996 Chevy S10 truck on Monday in Charlotte, said he thought the troubles in Venezuela were the main culprit. But if war starts with Iraq, Mr. Elder said, prices "will really go up."

"They are going to get all the money they can out of us," he said.

Thomas Crosby, a spokesman for AAA Carolinas, said the gas price increases were distressing "because the prices are rising at a faster pace than increases in crude oil prices." Oil companies are raising prices on the street well before the prices in crude actually take effect in world markets, he said.

"It's a very typical practice," Mr. Crosby said. "It's a burden on all of us. Iraq gives them a reasonable explanation to offer consumers."

James Dozier, 36, a manager at a janitorial supply warehouse in Charlotte, decided to put just $7 of gasoline in his 1996 Dodge Caravan the other day because of the prices. Mr. Dozier said he also decided not to go out that night to save on fuel costs.

"I'll just stay home and watch television," he said. "It used to be you could put $10 in and go all weekend."

www.fortwayne.com Posted on Wed, Feb. 19, 2003 FABIOLA SANCHEZ Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - The bodies of three dissident Venezuelan soldiers and an opposition activist had bullet wounds and showed signs of torture, forensic police said Wednesday.

Human rights officials warned that a continued impasse between President Hugo Chaves and the opposition demanding early elections could lead to more violence.

All four bodies were found in the suburbs of Caracas with their hands tied and their faces wrapped with tape.

Darwin Arguello, Angel Salas and Felix Pinto and opposition activist Zaida Peraza, 25, had multiple bullet wounds and showed signs of torture, Raul Yepez, the deputy director of Venezuela's forensics police, said at a press conference on Wednesday.

According to the New York-based Human Rights Watch, a witness to the abductions saw the victims being forced into two vehicles by men wearing ski-masks, not far from the plaza that has become the central rallying point of the opposition. Yepez said the abduction took place on Saturday night.

"I don't think anybody should expect the violence to decrease," said Michael Shifter, an analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank in Washington. "As long as there is an impasse on both sides, if anything, the violence will increase."

Dissident soldiers supported a nationwide strike called Dec. 2 to demand Chavez's resignation or early elections. The strike was lifted Feb. 4 in all areas except the oil industry to protect businesses from bankruptcy.

Chavez's opponents, including other dissident military officers, said government sympathizers could have been responsible for the killings. But Yepez said police had "practically ruled out" political motives.

No arrests have been made in connection with the killings.

Chavez was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000. He promised to wipe out the corruption of previous governments and redistribute the country's vast oil wealth to the poor majority.

His critics charge he has mismanaged the economy, tried to grab authoritarian powers and split the country along class lines.

Opponents of Chavez said Wednesday that more than 4.4 million Venezuelans had petitioned for a constitutional amendment to cut Chavez's term in power from six to four years.

Organizers said they had counted and verified 3.7 million signatures collected in a nationwide petition drive on Feb. 2. These were added to another 719,000 signatures supporting the initiative already gathered.

Under the constitution, organizers need signatures from 15 percent, or about 1.8 million, of the country's 12 million registered voters, to force a referendum on the amendment. This would then clear the way for general elections later this year.

news.ft.com By John Authers, Raymond Colitt and Richard Lapper Published: February 20 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: February 20 2003 4:00

US President George W. Bush seems to be succeeding in forging Latin American unity of an unwelcome kind. Opposition to possible US and British military action against Iraq is growing across the region.

"There is not a lot of sympathy or support [for the US]," says Michael Shifter, director of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue policy forum. "Most Latin American governments are totally baffled by it. All the Latin Americans I know say 'are you guys really going to do this?'."

Of most concern to Washington is that the two Latin countries, Mexico and Chile, which are among 10 elected members of the United Nations Security Council are showing little enthusiasm for US and British efforts to win support for speedy military action against Iraq.

Mexico's President Vicente Fox has been actively pushing an independent position. An outspoken critic of war, he welcomed the peace protests that took place in a number of international capitals last weekend. "It is extraordinary that people have demonstrated like this. It is the way to stop the war," he said.

Brazil, which will replace Mexico on the Security Council next year, has also been engaged in diplomacy designed to give more time to the UN weapons inspections. It has aligned itself with proposals made by Germany, France and Russia that sought to increase time and resources for inspectors in Iraq.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been seeking to stiffen the resolve of his Latin American counterparts. Brazil's foreign minister, Celso Amorim, has been in Moscow this week to underscore Brazil's support for diplomatic efforts to avoid war.

Several factors underpin the defiant mood. First, public opinion polls show that Latin Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to war.

According to recent research conducted by Latinobarómetro, a Santiago-based polling firm, 85 per cent of Chileans are opposed to war.

Similar polls by the same organisation showed that on average 57 per cent of Latin Americans opposed the invasion of Afghanistan, with that number rising to 80 per cent in Argentina.

Marta Lagos, the director of Latinobarómetro, notes a broader growth in anti-US sentiment across the region.

"You will find in most countries that many people have reasons to be anti-American," she says. "People like American culture and lifestyle but the US is perceived as not being helpful towards the region."

There are worries that a war, especially if it proves to be drawn out, will worsen financial and economic pressures and delay recovery. If war adds to, rather than reduces, uncertainty in the financial and commodity markets, investors could become even less enthusiastic than they are at present. The resulting rise in "risk aversion" could lead to weakness in currencies and may force governments to increase interest rates.

In the past few weeks, fears of war have set back the recovery in Brazil's financial markets.

"Brazil is concerned with the economic aspects of a possible war," says Mr Amorim. "We have to explore all solutions for Iraq. Brazil cannot watch passively, waiting to see what will happen. The consequences of war for emerging markets would be immediate."

Several countries, including Chile and the smaller Caribbean and Central American nations, would also be particularly vulnerable to the increase in oil prices that might result from damage to Iraqi fields. Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela are exporters, while Brazil produces about 80 per cent of its domestic oil requirements.

But all of this has to be offset against economic realities and, in particular, the enormous leverage that Washington has over many Latin American economies. The US is an important trading partner and a dominant influence in the International Monetary Fund and other multilaterals, on whose support much of the region depends.

Diplomats say efforts to develop a joint position through the Rio Group, which links 18 Latin American countries, have already stumbled against the extreme economic dependency of smaller Central American countries. Ultimately, economics could force some of the bigger players into the US camp.

Both Latin American Security Council members have close US ties. Chile recently agreed a free trade deal with the US that has still to be ratified by the US Congress. Mexico channels 90 per cent of its exports to the US and is keen to preserve intact its relationship with its neighbour and the benefits it has enjoyed through the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

Significantly, although Mexico and Chile favour more time for diplomatic actions, they are also reluctant to side openly with France and Germany and want to avoid confrontation with the US.

In Mexico City, some critics of the government see efforts to forge an independent position as flying in the face of political realities. Luis Rubio, a Mexico City-based political analyst, says that the government must recognise these strategic realities. "Obviously we could vote against but sooner or later the consequences would be brutal," he says. Additional reporting by John Authers in Mexico City and Raymond Colitt in Sa{~} o Paulo.

www.guardian.co.uk Owain Johnson in Caracas Thursday February 20, 2003 The Guardian

Three dissident Venezuelan military officers and a young woman have been found dead after apparently being kidnapped, tortured and killed, for what some people fear may have been political motives.

A fifth victim, a 14-year-old girl, survived the attack and is in intensive care.

The three men were part of a group of rebel officers who had declared themselves opposed to the leftwing president, Hugo Chavez.

The officers had been occupying the Plaza Altamira, in the capital's wealthy eastern suburbs, since late October.

Witnesses told police that the group was kidnapped near the Plaza in the early hours of Sunday morning. Armed men reportedly forced them into two cars and drove away.

A farm worker discovered the bodies of Zaida Peroza, 28, a tourism graduate, and Felix Pinto, 25, an air force officer, and the 14-year-old Rosana Rivero on the side of a road east of Caracas on Sunday morning.

Rosana Rivero was still alive and was taken to a nearby hospital, where her condition is described as critical.

The bodies of naval officer Angel Salas and infantryman Darwin Arguello, both 21, were discovered in a park east of the city on Monday afternoon.

All the four dead were found bound and gagged.

Police gave the cause of death as multiple shotgun wounds, and added that the bodies showed additional injuries consistent with the use of torture.

The leader of the dissident military officers, General Enrique Medina Gomez, said the officers were part of a group which took turns to keep watch over the square. He described the murders as "a crime against humanity".

Salas' brother Edwin, who is also a rebel naval officer, said the dissidents' public stand against the Chavez government had made them many enemies.

He said he and his brother had been subjected to constant intimidation since deciding to join the protests.

Mr Salas accused elements within the Venezuelan police and intelligence services of "persecuting" dissident officers. He said that they had also received violent threats from the Bolivarian Circles - groups of pro-government activists - and from the far-left Tupamaro group.

"The murder of my brother and his friends was carefully planned," Mr Salas said. "Everything about the way it was carried out points to a political motive."

Many of the senior military officers involved in the protests in the Plaza Altamira were involved in the short-lived coup against President Chavez last April.

The dissidents accuse Mr Chavez of authoritarianism and of using the armed forces to bolster his social reform projects. They also allege that Mr Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution" in favour of the poor masks a long-term project to introduce Cuban-style socialism to the oil-rich nation.

Despite international mediation, the political divide between Chavez supporters and opponents has widened since last April's coup, and the opposition recently held a damaging two-month strike with the aim of forcing the president's resignation.

As political tension has grown, violent incidents between the two sides have become increasingly common.

Government and opposition representatives signed an agreement on Tuesday to tone down verbal attacks on one another, but it remains unclear what influence this will have on their supporters.

The head of Venezuela's human rights association, Rafael Narvaez, who is representing the families of the four latest dead, said he had little hope that those responsible would be caught or punished.

"There are no credible institutions left any more, and there is currently no rule of law or due process in Venezuela," he said. "We will push as hard as we can for the authorities to investigate the murders, but if we hit a brick wall, we will ask the international community to apply pressure," Mr Narvaez said.