www.examiner.com.au By MICHAEL STEDMAN , Wednesday, 19 February 2003   COMMON CENTS:Liberty at Legana was 10c cheaper than stations in the city yesterday.(1/2)

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Tasmania's record high fuel prices have not reached their peak according to Tasmanian Automobile Chamber of Commerce general manager Malcolm Little. Mr Little was unable to predict how far the prices could rise but speculation suggests they could reach anywhere between $1.10 and $1.20 a litre. "The cause of the price rise is self evident and well publicised as a combination of the international reaction to war in Iraq and the general strike in Venezuela. What is less evident is how far prices will rise," Mr Little said. "The light side is that the strike in Venezuela has ceased which should bring relief in future though when we will see that, again we can't be sure." Residents in Legana were given some relief at least with the opening of the Liberty petrol station yesterday. As an opening special petrol was 93.7c a litre. In most areas of Launceston, however, prices were around $1.03. Mr Little said he was unsure if the price rise in fuel had been created in part by oil companies. "I have no evidence to suggest that but I have no evidence against it. Certainly oil companies are adept to making the most of international situations."

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www.upi.com By Hil Anderson UPI Chief Energy Correspondent From the Business & Economics Desk Published 2/18/2003 8:51 AM

LOS ANGELES, Feb. 18 (UPI) -- The impact that the anticipated clash between the United States and Iraq will have on gasoline prices remains largely within the realm of speculation.

For a war that is supposedly about oil, or the liberation of the Iraqi people, depending on your politics, there has been a great deal of uncertainty over how the oil-dependent world will cope with the potential chaos in the Persian Gulf.

Analyses of the situation have boiled down to equally dire predictions of either crude topping $50 per barrel and gasoline surging to nearly $5 per gallon at the pump in the event of a prolonged conflict, or an utter price collapse brought on by the quick "liberation" of Iraq's oilfields and the removal of United Nations' export restrictions shortly thereafter.

"Oil traders have been concerned for months that a war in Iraq...could result in Iraqi oil being removed from world markets and could affect production elsewhere in the Persian Gulf," the U.S. Energy Information Administration concluded in its latest energy outlook. "There have been no shots fired as yet, but the war of rhetoric has produced regular spikes in oil prices."

Gasoline prices at the pump were in a sharp climb by last week's end, reaching levels that the EIA and AAA pegged at some 50 cents over the same period a year ago, and around 20 cents over the price just last month.

The situation has stirred up plenty of worry and ire among consumers who have been grumbling around the office water cooler and filling Internet chat rooms with suspicions about gouging, but few solutions.

June Enmark summed it up last week, while topping off her van at a gas station outside San Diego.

"What can I do?" Enmark asked The San Diego Union-Tribune. "I need gas to get to work."

One woman, who asked to not be identified, told United Press International she got sick every time she drove by a gas station.

"I see the prices rising and I feel helpless," she said, standing next to a behemoth silver SUV. "I have to drive my car; this is Los Angeles where you are what you drive."

Consumer groups and government officials have issued warnings to the oil industry not to mistake the Persian Gulf crisis for a green light allowing large-scale price hikes.

"We have heard complaints of gasoline selling in Texas for well over $2 per gallon," Texas Gov. Rick Perry declared last Friday. "The vast majority of Texas companies conduct their businesses legally and ethically; however complaints received in our offices will be investigated by the attorney general, and I stand firm...in warning companies against trying to exploit consumers."

Trying to get a firm handle on rising energy prices in the past has been a frustrating exercise due to the complex and fluid nature of the oil market. Variables such as weather, refinery maintenance schedules and the overall economy can have an impact on the retail price of gasoline as significant as labor trouble in Venezuela and the anticipated last stand of Saddam Hussein.

In addition, wholesale prices on the petroleum spot market are established daily in an auction-like atmosphere that is volatile, highly susceptible to fears of supply shortages. When such concerns surface, traders working for brokers and oil companies have to pay more to nail down their companies' needs.

Therefore, the price paid at the pump is both difficult to predict and is based on business agendas and not on the foreign or economic policy aims of the United States. As a result, the public is generally left with vague answers that don't do much to ease anxieties about the bullish gasoline market.

The Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. recently predicted that a protracted war could send crude to $55 per barrel as compared to current prices under $37. The rise, of course, would be passed down to consumers.

In addition, environmental regulations require refiners each April to start producing summer-grade reformulated gasoline (RFG) for sale in most major urban areas. Summer RFG keeps emissions in check during hot weather, although it also costs more to produce and reaches the pumps June 1 -- just as vacation season demand kicks in.

Other fuels have been affected as well. A number of airlines have tacked $20 fuel surcharges on to the price of a ticket while Matson Navigation announced higher prices for marine bunker fuels would necessitate adding another 1.5 percent to its surcharge for goods shipped into Hawaii.

OPEC has pledged to keep the oil flowing through the crisis, although there is a risk of war damage to Saudi and Kuwaiti oil facilities, and transportation costs will rise as insurance rates go up for tankers transiting the Gulf.

On the other end of the spectrum is the scenario of a lightning war that ends with Iraq's oilfields captured intact and U.N. limitations on Iraqi exports canceled. The result could be the market suddenly becoming flush with oil and prices crumbling.

Whatever the result of the current crisis, it will likely take the remainder of the year for the market to settle back into a more routine exercise in supply and demand that doesn't include the $3-$4 "war premium" that has been tacked on to the price of each barrel of crude.

And when it comes down to the pocketbook issue of gas prices, eliminating that war premium one way or another is what will bring relief to consumers.

"Our vulnerability is not necessarily found in the volumes of oil we import," Robert Ebel, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Senate Energy Committee last week. "Rather, it is the price we pay for the oil we consume, whether secured through imports or from our own oil fields."

indymedia.ie by S. Aerobics Tue, Feb 18 2003, 1:08pm

Documentary : Chavez - Inside the Coup In April 2002 there was an attempt to overthrow Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez. Irish film-makers Kim Bartley and Donnacha Briain had arrived in the country a couple of months earlier to make a documentary on Chavez. "Our initial interest was in Chavez himself," says O' Brien. "But as soon as we got out there we knew there was something going on, so we stayed on."

The two film-makers were there to record the demonstrations; the shootings; the siege; the surrender. They were also there the next day when Chavez supporters marched on the city to protest, the state television was restored, and the army turned on it's own commanders and forced the release of Chavez. add your comments

COMMENTS

RTE fans! by ipsihpi Tue, Feb 18 2003, 1:42pm

dont miss the ongiong media success that is Radio Telefis Eirinn with global reach and capacity satelites TV websites and competitions magazines and vans RTE is for you! Today RTE (much better than the BBC anyday) listens to Mary Robinson who this morning debated the use of military force against Iraq. Mary is Head of the Ethical Globalisation Initiative, and she says a war may not be the surest way to bring justice to the people of Iraq!!! exclusive stuff with the RTE. at the 3.50second stage you will hear Mary talk about mass mobilisations! did anyone see Mary at London? In one of her first UK speeches since stepping down as UN High Commissioner on Human Rights, Mary Robinson will be talked on the theme of human rights in a lecture at LSE on Wednesday 23 October 2002. "From Rhetoric to Reality: making human rights work" Wednesday 23 October, 2pm Peacock Theatre, Portugal Street Mary doesnt like Rhetoric! shes just like Chavez really really honestly and truly.

Mary last weekend whilst all you "rhetoric people were assembling" was doing this...

On January 14, 2003, the Steering Committee of the Ethical Globalisation Initiative (EGI) will be convening its second meeting at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalisation. On January 15, the new Director of the Center, Ernesto Zedillo, will be organizing a brainstorming session for the initiative. Thomas Hammarberg and Harold Koh will be moderating the discussions on the key challenges, possible strategies and thematic issues for the EGI.

brainstorming! less rhetoric more BRAINSTORMING! good on you Mary. dont you have our best interests at heart? coz she spoke to LSE.

What A Coup (sorry!) by black frank Wed, Feb 19 2003, 12:38am Excellent programme, fly-on-the-wall coverage of a coup in action. Lies, propaganda, and Generals in stoopid uniforms. This must be just how it has happened so many times in Latin America, only this time the people managed to regain democracy from the plotters. Funny how the main instigators of the coup had just been in Washington as guests of the US Administration. And how the main culprit is now residing in Miami. And the quote from George Tenet, head of the CIA about the Chavez government not being amenable to US business interests. And how the main culprit is now residing in Miami. And that they have a lot of oil in Venezuela. Viva Chavez!! Viva Video Journalismo!

Brilliant by Mixer Wed, Feb 19 2003, 9:13am What an excellent documentary. Favourite bit is when the opposition to chavez have a meeting looking all radical, and then issue a warning to their members to keep an eye on their domestic servants! Classic! Also when the coup leaders are walking around the palace all glorious like, the look on guards faces is just priceless, you can tell they're not gonna take it much longer. I also loved the coup leader announcing that normality had returned played over pictures of the police laying into the populace. Another classic was the "unbiased" reporter letting slip that the whole coup announcement had been filmed in his house!

Excellent film by silo Wed, Feb 19 2003, 11:21am Excellent film by Kim Bartley and Donnacha O'Brien, and congratulations to RTE for showing it. For those of you who missed it, there's a (not-quite-finished) site at www.chavezthefilm.com. Well done!

biz.yahoo.com

PDVSA Advises Has Met Bond Related Payments Tuesday February 18, 10:59 am ET

CARACAS, Venezuela, Feb. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A., informs the international financial community, especially the holders of bonds issued by PDVSA Finance LTD and PDV America, that these PDVSA affiliates have complied with the interest and capital amortization payments on the bonds which expire between February 10 and February 18, 2003. Furthermore, PDVSA informs that all future payments will be managed according to the existing payment schedule.

Source: Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, February 18, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

The peace negotiations organized and led by Organization of American States (OAS) secretary general that have been continuing on and off since November have finally produced at least some results, with government and opposition negotiators agreeing to sign a declaration renouncing violence. 

The details of the accord will be made public later today, at 4:00 p.m. Caracas time during a press conference with all negotiators present. 

The agreement was suggested by Gaviria and is believed to contain an eight point proposal, including the reduction of crime across the country, the setting up of a joint commission made up of government and opposition representatives and also something with regard to the media.

The media issue will be of particular importance as the government continues to push forward with its media content law and its legal action against Venezuela's four main privately owned TV stations.