www.upi.com By James C. Bennett From the International Desk Published 2/15/2003 8:44 PM

WASHINGTON, Feb. 15 (UPI) -- Is America an empire, or becoming one? The question is intriguing enough to be worth revisiting, but this time after the manner of a thought experiment. Let us imagine what a real American Empire might look like, and how might it come about, given past historical examples.

How would it most likely come about? In response to crisis, most likely. Imagine not one, but several successive World Trade Center attacks, over a period of years, and with nuclear weapons. Now imagine that repeated instances of inaction, infighting or incompetence on the part of civil authorities being proven to have contributed to those attacks. Then imagine a military figure -- charismatic, ambitious, competent -- coming to public attention by dealing successfully with a public crisis.

Now imagine a weak and vacillating president, appointing such a person to a vacancy in the vice-presidency to shore up his popularity. In the next crisis, a group of young military officers, comrades of our new Napoleon, start to wonder whether they can tolerate weakness in the White House leading to another catastrophe in an American city. Perhaps a not-entirely-explainable death; perhaps a sudden resignation. These things happen at such times in empires.

The federal system would have to go, of course. Empires do not tolerate multiple, independent power centers. Multiple attacks of a severe nature would probably create an ongoing depression and emergency economy. It would be easy for our newly elevated commander in chief to burden the states with enough unfunded mandates to drive them into bankruptcy. In response to this crisis, a plan for a fusion of federal and state authorities, and debts, might be something state legislators would end up reluctantly approving. A new constitution would be adopted by national plebiscite, with the integrity of the vote being guaranteed by the military.

Of course the new constitution would have local assemblies of some sort, probably based on existing federal administrative regions. Both the regional assemblies and new national Congress would probably be elected by pure proportional representation, so as to assure fragmentation into many small ethnic-based parties, easy to manipulate and assemble into coalition governments.

Many people would be surprised by the liberal and progressive nature of the empire's domestic policy. Multiculturalism would be retained and enhanced, and the country would probably be declared officially bilingual in English and Spanish, the better to annex Latin American states. Again, the more divided the citizenry, the easier it is for a strong executive to manipulate them. Surprisingly to some, the neo-Confederate movement in the South would be quietly encouraged as a cultural movement, within limits, again to divide sentiments.

Tax policies would be fairly leveling, and a strong safety net would be maintained, all the better to create a healthy lower middle class as a source of soldiers. Existing business would be protected; new ones would be much harder to start.

Education would be nationally uniform, highly meritocratic, with a strong military content to schools. Elite schools would resemble military academies; schools for less-promising students would range from boot camp to reform school. Prisons would be emptied into military penal battalions for the more tractable, and work camps in frigid backlands for the less so. Domestic security police would actively intervene into domestic politics in a way that would make tomorrow's radicals view the old FBI with nostalgia.

Foreign policy would be radically different from the present. "Blood for oil" would not be an anti-war slogan; it would be an acknowledged government strategy. Probably, the government would conclude that if blood were to be spilled for oil, it should be done in the most cost-effective manner: Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico would be annexed outright and integrated as new regions into what might be renamed the United State of the Americas; Colombia and Ecuador would be annexed to guard their security. The Middle East would be ignored and Israel abandoned.

Caribbean and Central American tax havens would merely be informed of their annexation dates by their arriving governors. Guerilla campaigns against these acquisitions would be dealt with by a combination of high-tech weaponry, bribery, intimidation of neighboring states to deny cross-border sanctuaries, and mass transfer of populations sympathetic to rebels. Venezuelan patriots and Colombian drug lords alike would freeze building roads by the Arctic Ocean.

The empire would probably cut a deal either with Russia, to defend western Siberia in return for the eastern half, or with China, to acquiesce in their annexation of half of the same in return for America getting its cut. Negotiations with both parties would probably go on to the last hour. In Asia, the Philippines, and perhaps some other offshore areas, would be offered union with the empire, and would be leaned upon to accept.

Defense research would be strongly supported, and NASA would be incorporated into the Air Force. Space would be heavily militarized and occupied, with foreign satellites having to obtain launch clearance from the empire's authorities. Al Jazeera's content would change substantially.

Such an empire would be militarily strong, economically close to self-sufficient, and would be able to solve some internal social problems that now seem intractable. Such an empire would gravitate to being a semi-authoritarian state, although probably not a totalitarian one. More than a few people today who claim to fear empire would find they could tolerate it quite well. Even some libertarians would probably be happy with the five seats in Congress proportional representation would give them.

However, such a state would not be America. It would also likely lose the dynamism America now enjoys, in many ways more than ever before. Ultimately, such a structure would gradually eat away at the underpinnings of strong civil society such as America now enjoys, and it would become very difficult to regain it once it were lost.

To look at such empire both tells us how far America still is from yet being one, and what the stakes are in preventing the kind of stresses on America's existing civil society than would bring on such an emergency state. The alternative to strong action by a constitutional, democratic state against nuclear-armed terrorism is not life as before; it is something most people who grew up with today's America wouldn't care for.

www.gulf-daily-news.com NICOSIA:

Opec oil production rose 2.2 per cent to 25.663 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from December despite the turmoil in Venezuela, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) reports.

Output from the cartel's 10 members without Iraq increased 1.2pc or 263,000 bpd to 23.11m bpd from 22.85m bpd in December.

Baghdad accounted for just over half of Opec's overall increase in January, the industry newsletter says in its tomorrow's edition.

Gulf states Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE together lifted production by 580,000 bpd while Iraq pumped 2.55m bpd, a level not seen since since the first quarter of 2002, MEES notes.

"High Iraqi production is only being achieved at the price of damage to reservoirs - particularly in the north," MEES says.

Iranian production fell slightly on lower exports at 2.263m bpd as domestic consumption remained steady on 1.45m bpd.

MEES says the general strike in Venezuela saw average production drop to 620,000 bpd in January from 1m bpd in December and 3m bpd before the strike began at the end of 2002.

Meanwhile, Kuwait is removing some oil rigs and workers from its northern oil fields in response to increasing tensions with Iraq, its northern neighbour, an official said yesterday.

However, production at the fields will not be reduced, said Bader Al Zuwayyer, spokesman for the state-owned Kuwait Oil Company.

"Because of the security circumstances, we are moving equipment and cutting on manpower, but production will not be affected," he said.

Non-essential equipment and workers were being removed from the northern Ratqa, Abdali and Rawdatain fields near the Iraqi border "until things go back to normal," Al Zuwayyer said.

Tensions between the United States and Iraq have been increasing in recent months, with the US demanding that Iraq dismantle all chemical, biological and nuclear weapons or face possible attack. Iraq has denied it has such weapons, and UN weapons inspectors said Friday they had yet to find evidence of those weapons.

Yesterday, the northern half of Kuwait officially became an exclusion zone where civilians were forbidden to travel without special military permits. Only those with business in the area will be granted the permits.

In recent days, Kuwaiti authorities forced Bedouins living in the north to break their camps and head south in long camel caravans.

Kuwait currently pumps about 1.8m bpd from its fields. Its 96.5bn barrels in proven reserves are the world's fourth-largest.

World oil prices climbed to their highest level in more than two years on Friday as traders bet on a war in Iraq despite diplomatic efforts at the UN.

New York's reference light sweet crude contract for March delivery rose 44 cents to $36.80 a barrel, the highest level since September 2000.

www.ipsnews.net Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 15 (IPS) - Thousands upon thousands of protesters throughout Latin America took to the streets to express their opposition to a potential U.S.-led war on Iraq, finding unique ways to repudiate Washington, which many peace activists accuse of trying to take control of the Arab country's oil reserves. With marches, forums, dances, costumes and drums, across the region -- in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela -- people came together for a day of mobilisation for peace, an effort that encompassed 603 cities around the globe. In Latin America, Saturday was marked by harsh criticism of U.S. foreign policy as that country seeks a green light from the international community -- and through the United Nations -- to invade Iraq. "The world is mobilising against (U.S. President George W.) Bush and against war," summarised labour leader Víctor De Genaro, of the CTV, one of Argentina's main trade unions, during a march of thousands of people in Buenos Aires that ended outside the U.S. embassy. The protest march, which took place under an intense summer rainstorm, was also organised by human rights groups, student associations, leftist parties and groups related to the World Social Forum. Argentine Nobel Peace Laureate Adolfo Pérez Esquivel said the war that Bush is seeking against Iraq is not aimed at neutralising terrorism, as the U.S. president's speeches indicate, but rather "is an attempt to take over the world's energy sources," and is encouraging intolerance and hate. "Bush is trying to gain control of Iraq's petroleum reserves," asserts environmental activist Martín Prieto, director of Greenpeace-Argentina. Greenpeace joined the Buenos Aires protest Saturday with one of its members wearing a Bush mask and a sign identifying him as "the oil villain", and surrounded by placards reading "They Kill for Oil". The call for a day of peace rallies was formalised at the latest World Social Forum, held in the southern Brazilian city of Porto Alegre in late January. The Forum has become the core of the international movement that opposes the current process of economic globalisation. Brazil also saw thousands of people come out to demonstrate in favour of peace. Major anti-war events took place in Brasilia, Porto Alegre, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and at least 15 other cities. Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo reported the most numerous rallies, with 20,000 to 30,000 people in each, according to organisers. The Brazilian protests were marked by vivid colours and a vast array of masks and costumes, and included the participation of union leaders, leftist parties, the MST landless peasant movement, and numerous officials, encouraged to take part by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva himself, and his leftist Workers Party (PT). Worried about the effects on the region of an eventual war in Iraq, Lula on Friday contacted presidents Eduardo Duhalde (Argentina), Ricardo Lagos (Chile) and Lucio Gutiérrez (Ecuador) to propose an emergency meeting of South American foreign ministers in order to study the matter. In Uruguay, meanwhile, activists and citizens had a jump-start on the anti-war protests, holding one of Latin America's most numerous rallies on Friday night -- some 70,000 strong --, according to organisers. Though El Observador newspaper put the total at 20,000. The march in Montevideo, convened by the opposition leftist coalition known as the Broad Front, the labour union, and student, environmental and human rights organisations, followed the main avenue from Liberty Plaza to the state-run University of the Republic. There, a 10-year-old girl read a proclamation for peace, as well as a letter by world-renowned Uruguayan author Eduardo Galeano, a leader in the peace campaign. "The key to what is occurring with Iraq is petroleum, just as it is in the Venezuelan crisis," the writer said in an interview with a Buenos Aires radio station. "We should ask ourselves why this Mr. Oil is so poorly behaved and is capable of overthrowing governments, triggering wars, poisoning water and the air to sustain consumption," Galeano said. The Cuban capital saw a protest Saturday of some 5,000 workers and students, convened by the government to speak out against war. The event was presided by the minister of "revolutionary" armed forces, Rául Castro, President Fidel Castro's brother. In Chile, some two-dozen organisations staged an anti-war march in Santiago, ending outside La Moneda, the presidential palace. There, activists burned a scarecrow, symbolising Bush, and a U.S. flag. Additional protests took place throughout the country, in Temuco, La Serena, Valparaíso and Concepción. The peace march organisers said they hope to maintain pressure on the Lagos government, as Chile is a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, where the current debate on Iraq's disarmament is taking place. Friday, Chile's foreign minister Soledad Alvear reiterated before the council Chile's desire for a peaceful way out of the crisis. Activists from ATTAC-Chile (Association for the Taxation of Financial Transactions for the Aid of Citizens) told IPS that if there is a war, they will call for a boycott on products imported from the United States. "Because the root motivation to attack and dominate Iraq is related to controlling its oil reserves, we suggest focusing the boycott on fuel," says ATTAC. In Mexico, neighbour and trade partner of the United States and also a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, a march of some 15,000 people took place under the slogan "No to the imperialist war!" According to a telephone poll conducted last month by the daily Reforma, 83 percent of Mexicans consulted said they were against a U.S.-led war on Iraq. Guatemalan Nobel Peace Laureate Rigoberta Menchú commented in a conversation with IPS that "war will impoverish all Latin Americans," and she added that the motive behind the tensions is petroleum. "We must stop the madness of Bush, of (British Prime Minister) Tony Blair, and (Spanish Prime Minister) José María Aznar," stated Menchú. Even Venezuela, in spite of its own profound political crisis, had its anti-war protest, a march through Caracas organised by civil society groups under the theme "Not a drop of oil for the war." In Paraguay, the traditional February carnival in the southern city of Encarnación had a touch of the international anti-war protest. Saturday afternoon, a caravan of activists travelled through the city with a large white banner and broadcasting over loudspeakers the song "Imagine", invoking the song of the murdered former Beatle, John Lennon, now a hymn of peace. (END/IPS/LA/IP/TRA-SO LD/MV/DCL/03) (END/2003)

sf.indymedia.org by Jaguar Johnny Thursday February 13, 2003 at 10:10 PM

KPFA Flashpoints Radio February 13, 2003 -International Solidarity Movement's Kristen Shurr eyewitness report from Bethlehem, where Israel colonizers have been conducting nightly raids, destroying homes, kidnapping activists, and terrorizing children and their parents. -Dennis Bernstein interview with award winning journalist Gregory Palast, on the Bush family connections with Al-Qeada and the stolen Florida election.

sf.indymedia.org by Kellia Ramares Saturday February 15, 2003 at 04:05 PM

tomorrow in SF: "You’ve got to tell them that their actions will have serious consequences, not in the afterlife, not in the next election, but soon. They know you are marching against the war. Don’t bother advertising that. Go with signs demanding impeachment."...