santafenewmexican.com By JIMMY CARTER | Alternet 02/05/2003

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter smiles as he visits with OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria, not seen, in Caracas, Venezuela, Monday, Jan. 20, 2003. - AP | Leslie Mazoch

Despite marshalling powerful armed forces in the Persian Gulf region and a virtual declaration of war in the State of the Union message, our government has not made a case for a preemptive military strike against Iraq, either at home or in Europe.

Recent vituperative attacks on U.S. policy by famous and respected men like Nelson Mandela and John Le Carre, although excessive, are echoed in a Web site poll conducted by the European edition of Time magazine. The question was "Which country poses the greatest danger to world peace in 2003?" With several hundred thousand votes cast, the responses were: North Korea, 7 percent; Iraq, 8 percent; the United States, 84 percent. This is a gross distortion of our nation's character, and America is not inclined to let foreign voices answer the preeminent question that President Bush is presenting to the world, but it is sobering to realize how much doubt and consternation has been raised about our motives for war in the absence of convincing proof of a genuine threat from Iraq. The world will be awaiting Wednesday's presentation of specific evidence by Secretary of State Colin Powell concerning Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction. As an acknowledged voice of moderation, his message will carry enormous weight in shaping public opinion. But even if his effort is successful and lies and trickery by Saddam Hussein are exposed, this will not indicate any real or proximate threat by Iraq to the United States or to our allies. With overwhelming military strength now deployed against him and with intense monitoring from space surveillance and the U.N. inspection team on the ground, any belligerent move by Saddam against a neighbor would be suicidal. An effort to produce or deploy chemical or biological weapons or to make the slightest move toward a nuclear explosive would be inconceivable. If Iraq does possess such concealed weapons, as is quite likely, Saddam would use them only in the most extreme circumstances, in the face of an invasion of Iraq, when all hope of avoiding the destruction of his regime is lost. In Washington, there is no longer any mention of Osama bin Laden, and the concentration of public statements on his international terrorist network is mostly limited to still-unproven allegations about its connection with Iraq. The worldwide commitment and top priority of fighting terrorism that was generated after Sept. 11 has been attenuated as Iraq has become the preeminent obsession of political leaders and the general public. In addition to the need to re-invigorate the global team effort against international terrorism, there are other major problems being held in abeyance as our nation's foreign policy is concentrated on proving its case for a planned attack on Iraq. We have just postponed again the promulgation of the long-awaited "road map" that the U.S. and other international leaders have drafted for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is a festering cancer and the root cause of much of the anti-American sentiment that has evolved throughout the world. At the same time, satellite observations of North Korea have indicated that nuclear fuel rods, frozen under international surveillance since 1994, are now being moved from the Yongbyon site to an undisclosed destination, possibly for reprocessing into explosives. It is imperative that this threat to Asian stability be met with aggressive diplomacy. Since it is obvious that Saddam Hussein has the capability and desire to build an arsenal of prohibited weapons and probably has some of them hidden within his country, what can be done to prevent the development of a real Iraqi threat? The most obvious answer is a sustained and enlarged inspection team, deployed as a permanent entity until the United States and other members of the U.N. Security Council determine that its presence is no longer needed. For almost eight years following the Gulf War until it was withdrawn four years ago, UNSCOM proved to be very effective in locating and destroying Iraq's formidable arsenal, including more than 900 missiles and biological and chemical weapons left over from their previous war with Iran. Even if Iraq should come into full compliance now, such follow-up monitoring will be necessary. The cost of an on-site inspection team would be minuscule compared to war, Saddam would have no choice except to comply, the results would be certain, military and civilian casualties would be avoided, there would be almost unanimous worldwide support, and the United States could regain its leadership in combating the real threat of international terrorism.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter is chair of The Carter Center in Atlanta, Ga., a not-for-profit, nongovernmental organization that advances peace and health worldwide. For more information, contact The Carter Center Public Information, 404-420-5108.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 02.05.03, 12:56 PM ET

NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Emerging market sovereign bond prices traded slightly higher on Wednesday in a muted reaction to U.S. Secretary of State's Colin Powell's presentation to the United Nations in which he outlined the case for a possible war against Iraq. Benchmark Brazil C bonds <BRAZILC=RR> edged higher as Powell argued that Iraq had lied about its weapons programs while flouting U.N. demands that it disarm. "Most of us are still watching," said Mark Siegel, managing director at David L. Babson & Co., a member of the MassMutual Financial Group, explaining the lack of strong market reaction. "It remains to be seen how much of the risk that will come with the initiation of hostilities is priced in," Siegel said. "My guess is that the market will be shaken out of its complacency in the weeks to come and prices will go down." The market is concerned that a U.S.-led war against Iraq would jar the world financial system and spook investors away from risky assets, such as emerging market bonds. Emerging market bond spreads tightened by 10 basis points to 725 over U.S. Treasuries, according to JP Morgan's Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus. Tighter spreads reflect the perception of decreased risk as measured against safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds. By early afternoon, C bonds had risen 3/8 to bid 69-1/4. While Powell played tapes and showed satellite pictures which he said proved that Iraq was concealing banned weapons, traders took a break from wondering about the policies of Brazil's new government, Venezuela's economically crippling oil sector strike and Argentina's financial recovery effort. "It's just Powell, for the moment," said Paul Masco, head of emerging market trading at Salomon Smith Barney. "It's the only thing going on today that matters."

www.rferl.org By Michael Lelyveld

As war worries rise, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is sending conflicting signals about raising or lowering output to anticipate world demand and keep prices in line. While consumers fear shortages, producers are already planning for a postwar price plunge, and Russia is struggling with huge unsold inventories of oil.

Boston, 5 February 2003 (RFE/RL) -- Less than a month after agreeing to raise oil output by 6.5 percent, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is already talking this week about possible cuts.

In a series of confusing signals over the last several days, the president of the OPEC oil cartel, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, said the 11-nation group could speed up production or decide to reduce it in March.

Speaking in Abu Dhabi on 1 February, al-Attiyah said OPEC members could raise oil supplies further if needed, although there seems to be no worldwide shortage, the Qatar News Agency reported.

Then on 3 February, al-Attiyah said OPEC could move in the opposite direction at a meeting on 11 March to lower production, "Gulf News" reported. Analysts say that the coming of spring weather normally brings a drop in oil demand, while production in troubled Venezuela is gradually rising as a general strike there winds down. In such an uncertain environment, OPEC is worried that prices could plunge.

Al-Attiyah, who is the Qatari energy minister, said, "If we see any sign of a fall in oil prices, we will correct the situation." Some experts have warned that oil prices could slip suddenly to below $20 per barrel from more than $30 now.

Two weeks ago in Doha, al-Attiyah again gave a contradictory signal, saying OPEC could raise output at its scheduled March meeting. At the time, he complained that the market had ignored the cartel's decision on 12 January to hike production by 1.5 million barrels per day, leaving world prices too high. At the time, he said, "All options are open," AFP news agency reported. Since then, it appears that no option has been closed.

The reason is that both OPEC and the market are swamped with conflicting signals. Among them are a war with Iraq that may or may not happen, the strike in Venezuela that may be broken, and a dip in seasonal demand at a time when many countries are cramming to fill their strategic petroleum reserves. The combination of factors has made the market perilous to predict.

Analysts are also coming up with new combinations of possible outcomes within each variable, further complicating their forecasts. Most have to do with the dangers of Iraq.

This week, the Washington-based consulting firm PFC Energy outlined three possible outcomes for Iraqi oil production if a conflict breaks out in late February or March.

If the fighting ends quickly with no damage to the country's oil fields, Iraq could resume its recent production level of 2.5 million barrels of oil per day by May or June in the best case, PFC said. The "baseline case" includes some minor damage to oil facilities with recovery to prewar levels in November or December. But the worst case includes extensive damage, perhaps caused by mining of the oil fields, leaving Iraq with only 1 million barrels per day at the end of the year.

Others see the possibility of even worse consequences. Dow Jones Newswires quoted Mark Baxter, director of the Maguire Energy Institute in Houston, Texas, as saying that if Iraq attacks Kuwait, it would take a combined 5 million to 6 million barrels per day off the market, or 7 percent of world output. The range of possible outcomes makes any OPEC decision a matter of guesswork. In the past week, published forecasts have pegged future oil prices from as little as $10 to more than $80 per barrel.

The situation has also highlighted the problems for producing countries like Russia, which are highly dependent on oil income and less flexible than some OPEC members like Saudi Arabia. The output from Russia's Siberian oil fields cannot be easily turned on and off like those in the Persian Gulf.

Russian Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin said the country's budget this year is based on the assumption that oil prices will average $21.50 per barrel, Interfax reported. On 1 February, Kudrin told reporters in Khanty-Mansiisk that he does not expect prices to fall sharply, but he did not explain his reasons for confidence.

Mikhail Khodorkovskii, president of Russia's giant Yukos oil company, disagrees, arguing last month that prices will soon sink to below $20 per barrel.

Khodorkovskii seems more worried about the prospect of low prices than he was a year ago, when Russian oil companies were ready to take on OPEC in a price war for world market share. At the end of 2001, oil was already trading below $20 per barrel and was fighting off threats to slide as low as $10. But Moscow's priority was to increase production, despite the low returns. It largely succeeded. Russia's oil output rose 9 percent last year.

One reason for Russia's greater worry over low oil prices is that it has yet to deal with the consequences of its success. In January, Russian oil output rose to a record post-Soviet high of 8.07 million barrels per day, but a backlog of oil on the domestic market is also rising toward record levels.

This week, LUKoil Vice President Leonid Fedun warned that bottlenecks and conflicts between private Russian oil companies and the state-controlled pipeline monopoly Transneft will trap up to 131 million barrels of oil inside Russia by November, "The New York Times" reported. The Moscow-based United Financial Group also estimated that Russian domestic oil inventories have already risen 14 percent to 165 million barrels in the past four months as prices plummet.

But Russia may also be less confident about weathering the worries over oil prices this time because it has far less control over events in the market than at this time last year. The outcome of real war is even less certain than a price war, and Russia's companies have already invested to produce even more oil.

www.zwire.com By:Katy Ciamaricone 02/05/2003 Her mission: To get people thinking.

One of her signs disputed the Bush administration's rejection of an international agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions. The other read "No war for oil."

Sherman, an Elkton resident, said her rally was part of a nationwide initiative planned at sites around the country Tuesday that included several student organizations and Greenpeace. She decided to participate after she received an e-mail message urging people to join in.

"I heard in Baltimore they were planning to plaster gas stations with skull and crossbones, encouraging people to get their oil from Venezuela," she said. "Because war is not taking place in Venezuela."

The perch on which she stood in front of the Route 279 truck stop is prime real estate when attention is what you're after, Sherman explained. She often shifted her stance to the left so her signs faced truckers pulling into the depot, or right to give departing drivers some food for thought for the long road ahead.

"This is one of the most well-traveled spots on the East Coast, with truck drivers and travelers coming through all the time," Sherman said.

A trucker waited to yield onto Route 279, craning his neck to read Sherman's message, as she continued: "People have been mostly driving by with amused smiles on their faces. Most of them are probably thinking, 'There's just another ex-hippie at it again.'"

Sherman says she's "flexible" when it comes to picking a political party. "I generally don't endorse Republicans," she said. "I was tempted to vote for (Green Party candidate) Ralph Nader - I talked my mother into voting for him - then at the last minute, someone convinced me to vote for (Democrat) Al Gore, because of his stance on equal rights."

This is not the first time Sherman, 50, has protested against U.S. policies with foreign nations. During the 1960s, she saw news about U.S. soldiers who destroyed a South Vietnamese village, leaving dozens of slain civilians, during the My Lai massacre. And though her brother had enlisted in the Army and was sent to Vietnam, Sherman was compelled to travel to Mount Vernon to demonstrate with fellow teen-agers whose own government had disappointed them.

Times have since changed, but not necessarily for the better, Sherman claimed. "The world is now reaching nuclear capacity and the entire planet is in danger. If (enemies) drop a bomb on the East Coast, there is a mountain in Nevada that would keep Bush and his family safe. What's he got to lose?"

So in a check-mate measure, Sherman figured she had nothing to lose by sharing her anti-war opinions with the world - or, at least, those passing by Elkton's Truck Stop of America.

www.morningstar.ca 5 Feb 03(11:10 AM) | E-mail Article to a Friend By Daniel Grebler

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold and oil prices rose on Wednesday as Secretary of State Colin Powell presented evidence to the United Nations Security Council that he said proved Iraq violated the U.N. mandate that it disarm.

Powell played eavesdropping tapes of intercepted conversations between Iraqi officials and displayed satellite photos that Washington says prove Iraq was hiding weapons from U.N. inspectors.

Shortly after Powell spoke, gold for April delivery <0#GC:> on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up $4.10 , or 1 percent, at $384.00 an ounce, off slightly from a 6-1/2 year high ahead of his speech.

Futures hit $390.80 an ounce overnight, the highest level since August 1996.

"There has to be a $50 war premium right now and at a certain stage I think that's got to burst," said a bullion trader. "But all eyes will be on Colin Powell today."

New York crude oil futures were up 57 cents, or 1.7 percent at $34.15 a barrel as Powell spoke, within a dollar of 2-year price highs. Traders fear that war in Iraq could disrupt crude supplies from the Middle East, which pumps a third of the world's oil. Oil prices have risen more than 37 percent since mid-November on the growing threat of military conflict.

On Wall Street, blue chip stocks were higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average up 0.8 percent at 8,080, while the broader S&P 500 index was up 0.7 percent at 854.

U.S. government bonds were weaker but little changed as Powell spoke.

Ten-year notes <US10YT=RR> were down 8/32 to 100-10/32, yielding 3.96 percent, versus 3.93 percent at Tuesday's close. Five-year note yields <US5YT=RR> rose to 2.95 percent from 2.9 percent at Tuesday's close.

The Treasury said earlier it would sell $42.0 billion in five- and 10-year notes next week and would hold more frequent sales of five-year notes.

Thirty-year yields <US30YT=RR> rose to 4.81 percent from 4.8 percent at Tuesday's close.

Oil prices were further strengthened as a government report showed that U.S. supplies of heating oil were heavily drawn down last week by an Arctic blast across much of the nation. World stocks have already been tightened by a 2-month strike in key supplier Venezuela.

European bourses were soft, near 6-year lows as investors weighed the still uncertain outlook for company profits and economic recovery as well as the specter of war.

The FTSE Eurotop 300 index of pan-European blue chips was up 11 points, or 1.4 percent at 795.

Tokyo's Nikkei average closed 0.77 percent higher on strong corporate results and on hopes the Bank of Japan will take an aggressive monetary stance to reflate the economy. The broader TOPIX index edged up 0.12 percent.