www.phillyburbs.com By STEPHEN IXER The Associated Press

President Hugo Chavez declared victory Sunday after his opponents agreed to ease a two-month national strike, but thousands of Venezuelans still lined up for a petition drive seeking his ouster.

Strike organizers, who began the protest Dec. 2 to pressure Chavez into accepting a referendum on his rule, said Friday they would ease the work stoppage, already waning, this week to protect businesses from bankruptcy.

However, the strike will continue in the vital oil industry, where production was cut from 3 million barrels a day to 150,000 at the height of the strike. Chavez said Sunday the government boosted production to 1.8 million barrels a day, but striking workers put the number at 1 million.

"Today is a victorious day," the president said in his weekly television and radio program. "We have beaten once and for all a new destabilizing attempt, a new malevolent and criminal attempt to sink Venezuela."

But opposition leaders - who accuse Chavez of ruining the economy with leftist policies and trying to accumulate too much power - were far from conceding defeat.

Thousands of Venezuelans waited hours in the tropical sun Sunday to sign petitions at tables nationwide in support of various measures renouncing Chavez's government and seeking his ouster.

Four people were injured, including two police officers, when pro-Chavez protesters threw stones, fireworks and tear gas canisters near two petition tables in downtown Caracas, police chief Henry Vivas said. A car belonging to a private, local television channel also was set alight.

The opposition hopes one petition in particular - a constitutional amendment reducing Chavez's term from six to four years - will succeed, paving the way for general elections later this year.

Under the constitution, organizers need signatures from 15 percent, or about 1.8 million, of the country's 12 million registered voters - a number they expect to surpass easily.

"We're looking for the fastest way to get out of this crisis," said Freddy Hurtado, 56, an advertising agent who complained of poor business even before the strike began. "Given that the president is the cause of the crisis, we're going to get rid of him with our signatures."

The amendment was one of two proposals made by Nobel Peace Prize winner and former President Jimmy Carter. The other calls for a recall referendum on Chavez's rule halfway through his six-year term, in August.

Chavez has indicated he is open to both solutions, but said Sunday he never would give in to his opponents, whom he labeled "coup-plotters, fascists and terrorists." He vowed to hold strike leaders accountable in the courts and again threatened private media outlets, which he accuses of supporting opposition efforts.

Oil makes up a third of Venezuela's economy and provides half of government income. Before the strike, Venezuela was the world's fifth-largest oil exporter and a major supplier to the United States.

The strike has cost the nation at least $4 billion in lost oil revenues alone by government estimates. The Santander Central Hispano investment bank has warned that the economy could shrink by as much as 40 percent in the first quarter of this year.

The extent of a continued work stoppage in the industry was unclear. Some 35,000 of the oil industry's 40,000 workers originally joined the strike, but the government has said most of them are back at work.

Most small businesses never joined the strike, and many companies that closed because of security concerns have reopened their doors in recent days. Those that remained closed - including factories, malls and franchise restaurants - were urged to open this week for restricted hours, strike leaders said.

February 2, 2003 4:17 PM

www.iht.com Bloomberg News Monday, February 3, 2003   ABU DHABI OPEC, which supplies one-third of the world’s oil, may cut output in the second quarter to prevent a drop in prices as demand slows, the oil ministers for the United Arab Emirates and Libya said Sunday.

Ali Naimi, oil minister of Saudi Arabia, and his Qatari counterpart, Abdullah ibn Hamad Attiyah, who is also president of the Organization of the Petroleum Countries, said Saturday that supply might exceed consumption by as much as 3 million barrels per day after the Northern Hemisphere winter ends.

‘‘We definitely are concerned for the second quarter, because typically demand declines during that period,’’ Obaid ibn Saif Nasseri, oil minister of the Emirates, said Sunday. ‘‘If we see the danger of a drop in oil prices, we will meet to rectify the situation.’’

Most members of OPEC are now pumping near their limit in an attempt to lower prices from more than $31 a barrel in New York and London, a two-year high. Prices have surged two-thirds in the past year because of a strike in Venezuela, traditionally OPEC’s No. 3 producer, that has crimped that country’s oil output, as well as concern over a possible U.S.-led attack on Iraq.

Oil prices in New York have held above $30 a barrel for six weeks, the longest period in two years. A drop of $5 to $10 would ease pressure on economies in the United States and Europe, where growth has slowed and oil demand has stagnated since 1999. The unemployment rate in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, has risen to 6 percent. In Germany, one in 10 workers is jobless. OPEC next meets March 11.

‘‘If in March there are signs that demand is stable and prices decline sharply, OPEC will react to reduce production,’’ said Abdulhasid Mahmoud Zlitni, the Libyan oil minister. ‘‘The current buildup in global oil stocks will have a negative impact on prices.’’

The 11-member oil cartel may struggle to replace Iraqi oil should the country’s production be curtailed by an attack, Nasseri said. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hold significant spare capacity, analysts say.

‘‘If there is a total disruption of oil infrastructure in Iraq, it will be very difficult for OPEC to replace that production,’’ Nasseri said. President George W. Bush of the United States has said that his administration is ready to attack Iraq, which holds the world’s second-largest oil reserves, if President Saddam Hussein does not give up his quest for weapons of mass destruction.

Saudi Arabia stands ready to fill any shortages in the market caused by a war, Naimi said Saturday. Iraq pumped 2.3 million barrels of oil a day in December, making it OPEC’s third-largest producer, according to Bloomberg estimates.

‘‘We will supply the shortages up to our capacity, whatever the source of the shortage,’’ the Saudi minister said. The kingdom has 2 million to 2.5 million barrels a day of idle capacity, he said.

Venezuela’s opposition leaders have called on most striking workers to abandon a two-month walkout and return to their jobs for a few hours a day, evidence that President Hugo Chavez has outlasted those who wanted to depose him.

Because of the strike, Venezuela is pumping about 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, or about half as much as in November, the state oil company said Friday. Striking oil workers say production is about 1 million barrels a day.

www.heraldsun.news.com.au 03feb03

OPEC will deal with any unforeseen development such as war on Iraq, and increase supply to meet demand, the oil cartel's president, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, said yesterday. "If there's a shortage of supply, OPEC will balance demand and supply," Mr Attiyah told reporters on the sidelines of an energy and environment conference in the Emirati capital. "We've learnt from history how to deal with these situations," he said, adding that the OPEC had "learnt a lot of lessons" from the 199O Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the 1991 Gulf war.

He said no OPEC meeting had been scheduled during the Abu Dhabi conference attended by at least 11 oil ministers.

"Only bilateral talks are taking place but not any OPEC meetings because not all the oil ministers are present.

"The next OPEC meeting is on March 11 and we will discuss all options taking into account the market situation. For sure we will take into account any surprise development in the market also."

In the event of a US-led attack on Iraq, the cartel could convene a snap meeting, said Mr Attiyah, who is Qatar's energy and industry minister. "OPEC always has a tradition, can meet any time to discuss the markets, but I hope not to see a war," he said.

In Abu Dhabi on Saturday, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Nuaimi renewed the kingdom's pledge to activate spare oil production capacity and make up for any loss in world petroleum supply if war broke out.

The world's top oil exporter "does not hope that a strike on Iraq happens but, if it does, it is committed to cover the needs of the market in line with its capacity", he said.

On Friday, New York's light sweet crude March-dated futures were priced at $US33.51 a barrel, well above the $US22 to $US28 per barrel OPEC price band.

In London, the price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for March delivery fell to $US31.06 per barrel, despite OPEC's decision in mid-January to increase production by 1.5 million barrels a day from next month.

Industry analysts have warned that war in Iraq and continuing labour unrest in Venezuela could deprive the global oil market of about five million barrels per day.

abcnews.go.com The Associated Press BOGOTA, Colombia Feb. 2 —

Ruth Morris thought she was an expert on kidnapping, having worked in Colombia as a journalist for five years. But she says nothing could have prepared her for the 11 days she and American photographer Scott Dalton spent in the clutches of leftist rebels.

Morris, a 35-year-old British citizen raised in southern California, said she was sometimes so scared she had to force herself to eat the rice, spaghetti and fish provided by the rebels.

The two veteran journalists, released to the Red Cross on Saturday, said they were never harmed but were constantly worried what their fate would be and how their families were dealing with their abduction.

Morris and Dalton, 34, of Conroe, Texas, were the first foreign journalists to be kidnapped in Colombia's four-decade-long war.

Both live in Bogota and had been in Arauca on assignment for the Los Angeles Time when they were stopped at a roadblock by the National Liberation Army on Jan. 21, then led away with hoods over their heads.

Their taxi driver, who was released a day later, said the rebels told him they planned to grant the journalists an interview with a senior commander, or send them back with a communique. But two days later the rebels said over a clandestine radio station that the pair had been "detained" by the insurgents, who complained about the U.S. military presence in Arauca.

At one point, the rebels demanded a halt to Colombian military operations in the northeastern state but then backed off the demand.

The National Liberation Army and a larger rebel group are fighting U.S.-backed government troops and an outlawed paramilitary group for control of oil-rich Arauca, which is about twice the size of New Jersey.

On their sixth day in captivity, the journalists were marched down the mountain where they were being held at a rebel camp. Morris thought she was about to be freed. Instead they were taken to another rebel camp.

"It was as if someone had removed my heart," she said.

The guerrillas told the journalists they were being held for a $50 million ransom and warned them they'd be shot if they tried to escape.

Colombia has the highest kidnapping rate in the world. Last year, 3,000 people were abducted.

Morris had written extensively about the problem and was even preparing a television documentary on it. But she never thought she was personally at risk.

"It never occurred to me that we would be kidnapped by the guerrillas," said Morris, speaking from a Bogota hotel where she and Dalton were recuperating hours after their release. "It was something that I didn't think could happen."

The kidnapping was apparently not planned, rather a spur-of-the-moment decision by a rebel at the roadblock, who would remain with them throughout most of the 11 days.

"He told me at one point that he was proud to have been the person to have made that decision, that they don't see many foreigners in those parts and they just couldn't give up the opportunity," said Morris, who also has reported for Time magazine and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Although they were guarded by several armed guerrillas at all times, the two journalists were allowed some freedom of movement. Almost every day, Morris walked to a nearby river, where she would bathe and wash her clothes. She also wrote scrupulously in her notebook.

Every evening, she and Dalton would play gin rummy before going to sleep.

"I won the first couple of nights, but she caught on pretty quickly," said Dalton, who worked for The Associated Press for nine years before leaving to pursue freelance projects last year. "I'd say we ended even."

Speaking from the hotel after showering and shaving, Dalton said he would spend part of Sunday with friends watching a taped broadcast of the NFL Super Bowl that he missed while in captivity. Later in the week, he planned to fly to Texas to see his family.

"We were always confident we'd be freed eventually," said Dalton, his bug-bitten legs the only visible evidence of his ordeal.

www.bangkokpost.com

The winds of war have been buffeting Wall Street, sending skittish investors to the sidelines, and the storm is only likely to intensify this week as the White House makes its last diplomatic push for Iraqi disarmament.

With US forces massing in the Middle East and the rhetoric from Washington heating up, the United States appears increasingly on the brink of war. The suspense is killing stocks and has plunged key market gauges to their lowest levels in more than three months.

Ordinarily, investors' focus would be fixed on the outlook for the economy and corporate profits, but the coming week was ``just not going to be an ordinary week'', said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Asset Management.

A modest rally lifted most stocks on Friday but Wall Street ended a third straight negative week and was in the red for January despite a promising start.

The Dow Jones industrials closed up 108.68 points (1.37%) at 8,053.81, shrugging off a weak start. The Standard and Poor's 500 advanced 11.09 points (1.31%) to 855.70 but the Nasdaq fell 1.43 points (0.11%) at 1,320.92.

The markets closed out January with a loss, despite conventional logic about a ``January effect''.

Tom Schrader of Legg Mason Wood Walker dismissed the Wall Street adage that performance in January foreshadowed the trend for the year. ``I don't think there is any statistical proof to back it up,'' he said.

But Brian Piskorowski, equity strategist at Prudential Securities said January's direction had predicted the market's annual course with 92.3% accuracy.

The parade of corporate earnings will fade into the background somewhat this week, but Wall Street will be tuned in for results and, more importantly, forecasts from technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc and No. 4 long-distance telephone company Sprint Corp.

While brewing geopolitical events will likely shove nearly everything else to the back burner this week, economic reports _ particularly data on the manufacturing sector and the labour market _ could also affect the mood.

The Institute of Supply Management's gauge of the factory sector, set for release today, and US payrolls data on Friday will give investors some early glimpses of the state of the economy.

Evidence that the US economy is pulling out of its soggy patch has been spotty at best, and the increasing possibility of war has whipped up fears growth could stumble as corporate America puts off investment decisions and stubbornly high oil prices bite into corporate profits.

Wall Street will also be watching on Wednesday when Secretary of State Colin Powell goes before the UN Security Council to try to persuade doubters that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

Worries that a war could disrupt oil supplies, as well as a two-month strike that has crippled production in Venezuela, have pushed the price of crude above $33 a barrel.

Those high prices have sparked fears that corporate profits, already tepid, could take another blow as companies and consumers are forced to shell out more for energy costs.

But the 2002 fourth-quarter results from corporate America have been, for the most part, encouraging. About 67% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings so far, and, of those, 62% have beaten Wall Street analysts' expectations and 22% have matched them, according to Thomson First Call.

What is troubling, however, is that the outlook for corporate profits in the year ahead remains decidedly murky.

So far, the guidance continues along the lines of no visibility,'' said Charles White, president of investment firm Avatar Associates. Companies don't even want to say anymore that they see things getting better in the second half, because that's what they told us last year.''

In addition to Cisco and Sprint, results are expected this week from medical device maker Boston Scientific Corp, consumer products company Colgate-Palmolive Co, No. 2 US drugstore chain CVS Corp, and top US home appliance maker, Whirlpool Corp.

Beverage and food company Pepsico Inc and Anheuser-Busch Co, the maker of Budweiser beer, also have results on tap.

European markets closed out a dreadful January though prices were mostly higher on Friday after positive US economic data coaxed bargain-hunters back into the market. Most bourses still ended up posting their worst January performance in years as the countdown to war picked up.

The FTSE Eurotop 300 index of pan-European blue chips, coming on the back of three straight years of losses, ended the month more than 7% down _ its worst January performance since the index's records begin in 1986.

The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of leading euro-zone shares was up 0.45% on Friday to 2,248.17 points. The German DAX 30 index gained 2.01% to 2,747.83 points and the French CAC 40 added 0.81% to 2,937.88 points. The British FTSE 100 eased back 0.32% to 3,567.4 points. The euro fell to $1.0740 while oil prices were steady.

``The dollar is continuing to do a bit better than before and that also helped the European markets. But the Iraqi problem continues to create negative sentiment,'' said a dealer in Paris.