www.smh.com.au February 3 2003

Crude oil prices, which reached a two-year high in London last month, might drop in the second quarter because of excess supply, the president of OPEC said.

"If Venezuela's oil output recovers in the coming weeks, we could see 3 million barrels per day of oversupply in the second quarter," Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said in Abu Dhabi before an environmental conference.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries would be unable to reduce prices now because of "political crisis" in Iraq, said Mr al-Attiyah, who is also the oil minister of Qatar.

Oil prices in New York have held above $US30 a barrel for six weeks, the longest period in two years. A $US5 to $US10 drop would ease pressure on economies in the US and Europe, where growth has slowed and oil demand has stagnated since 1999. The unemployment rate in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, has risen to 6 per cent. In Germany one in 10 workers is jobless.

OPEC agreed last month to increase quotas by 1.5 million barrels to 24.5 million barrels a day starting last Saturday. The move was intended to push prices below $US28 a barrel and allow some members to make up for a shortfall from Venezuela, where a two-month nationwide strike has crippled oil exports.

"Venezuela could reach 2.6 million barrels a day within weeks," Mr al-Attiyah said. "It looks like the strike in Venezuela is coming to an end."

OPEC might be forced to cut quotas when they meet on March 11 in Vienna, he said. "We will have to study the possibility of an oil surplus."

Demand for oil will drop by about 2.5 million barrels a day in the second quarter, compared with the first, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters at a press briefing in Abu Dhabi. International inventory levels were on the low side, particularly in the US, he said.

Officials from Saudi Arabia, the top producer among OPEC countries, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have said they can do nothing to lower oil from about a two-year high because the threat of war with Iraq is inflating prices.

"What more can they do," said Salim Shaban, deputy oil minister of Oman, the sixth-largest Middle East oil producer and a non-member nation that has cooperated with OPEC to bolster prices. "You could see oil prices fall by a third if the Iraq issue were solved tomorrow," he said.

Most OPEC states are pumping as much oil as they can to fill a gap caused by a nine-week strike in Venezuela.

www.news-miner.com72521153333,00.html Article Last Updated: Sunday, February 02, 2003 - 4:46:32 AM MST

We all know the deep, resonant clang that comes from beating an empty 55-gallon steel drum.

Unless Congress acts, it's a sound that could come from the trans-Alaska oil pipeline--even while there's North Slope oil still to be pumped.

To ensure we don't hear it, Sen. Lisa Murkowski last week proposed that Congress declare that the environmental documents supporting the recently signed 30-year federal pipeline right-of-way comply with federal environmental law. That simple act tells the courts that the documents cannot be challenged.

The measure, agreed to by the Senate and forwarded to a conference committee with the House as part of a national budget bill, removes the possibility that costly, protracted legal action over the documents could shut the pipeline when the current right of way, which is insulated in a similar manner, expires early next year.

With Alaska's treasury and the national and state economies so reliant on oil, a court-ordered pipeline shutdown is something we simply cannot risk, no matter how remote the possibility.

Sen. Murkowski's action, which drew immediate criticism from environmental groups, is nothing new. Rather, it is a wise reflection of what Congress allowed in 1973 when, at a time of the Arab oil embargo, it authorized the pipeline's construction and the awarding of the first 30-year right of way.

Two points made by Congress back then are relevant today.

First, Congress stated that the delivery of North Slope oil to domestic markets "is in the national interest because of growing domestic shortages and increasing dependence upon insecure foreign sources."

Today, the U.S. is still a major oil importer, and market insecurity again threatens those sources: A war with Iraq could destabilize that entire oil-producing region, and Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter and a U.S. supplier, is suffering a lengthy strike that has cut its oil production in half. U.S. gasoline prices have risen for six weeks straight.

Second, Congress noted in 1973 that, "because of the extensive governmental studies already made of this project ... the trans-Alaska oil pipeline be constructed promptly without further administrative or judicial delay or impediment."

Today, the pipeline has again been the subject of extensive government study. The environmental document for the right-of-way renewal is more than 1,600 pages and was the subject of six public meetings around Alaska.

Now a third point exists in favor of legal protection for the pipeline.

Sen. Murkowski's proposal comes at a time when environmentalists are skillful fighters. Left without the congressional and White House support they enjoyed in the 1970s, they are turning more to the remaining branch of government, the judiciary, and are scoring major victories.

Since the arrival of the Bush administration, courts have upheld new clean air standards for vehicles and power plants, blocked oil and gas exploration in Utah and reinstated a Clinton-era rule to prevent logging and road construction in nearly 60 million acres of national forests, including areas of the Tongass National Forest in Southeast Alaska.

The successes haven't gone unnoticed at the Interior Department, where the undersecretary of natural resources and environment acknowledged recently that environmental groups have been highly effective in choosing their targets.

Pipeline critics say they were, until Sen. Murkowski's proposal, considering action against the current right-of-way renewal. It wouldn't have been the first time: In 1970 they used the courts to tie up the budding pipeline project for three years, ultimately leading Congress to overcome the challenge by bypassing environmental law.

Exempting a project from legal action, essentially denying a citizen the ability to sue, should be done sparingly. But in this case, and for the national interest and the well-being of Alaska, approval of Sen. Murkowski's proposal is the right decision for Congress to make and for the president to agree with.

We don't want to hear that hollow sound in the pipeline just yet.

www.islam-online.net

CARACAS, February 2 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) – Opposition leaders in Venezuela say they will ease the two-month-old strike against the country’s president, Hugo Chavez, from Monday, February 3, but the crucial oil sector will remain on strike.

An opposition spokesman, Jesus Torrealba, said Saturday, February 1, that the movement “will enter a new phase” late Sunday, with businesses, industries, schools and shopping centers resuming activity over the course of the next week, reported Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Torrealba, executive secretary of the opposition coordinating committee, said it would continue the fight in the key oil industry, demanding that 5,000 oil workers sacked by the government be allowed to return to work.

The fight, Torrealba said, is not only over these workers but “also will be focused on derailing the government’s ambitions to use PDVSA to serve its political ends.”

Opposition members have been demanding Chavez step down as soon as possible. He has rejected the idea and said they can seek a recall referendum in August.

Far from easing up on pressure on Chavez, Torrealba insisted that starting Monday, the opposition “will sponsor with greater drive demonstrations with one goal: pushing Chavez out of office.”

He said strike leaders were pleased with mediation proposals from the Organization of American States, and the creation of a Group of Friendsof Venezuela to try to help end the standoff that has crippled Venezuela’s economy.

Victory for Chavez

The decision, which opposition leaders said would be explained in detail in a news conference on Sunday night, was seen as a clear victory for Chavez, who has played down the walkout while calling its organizers fascists and coup plotters, reported British daily the Independent.

The government’s opponents characterized their action as a new phase in their efforts to unseat Chavez. They asserted that the strike led to international participation in Venezuela’s political crisis and pressed the government into negotiations that could lead to an electoral solution.

However, the fact is that for many days the strike has been one in name only, with Venezuelans tired of a walkout that had devastated their economy while bringing none of the results promised in December. The blow to the Venezuelan economy, Latin America’s fourth largest, is estimated at U.S.$4 billion in lost oil revenues alone.

“We share the opposition’s opinion, but we live by working,” said Maritza RondÓn, owner of a wholesale hardware store in Venezuela’s second-largest city, Maracaibo, that reopened weeks ago. “Our business has nothing to do with our politics.”

Alfredo Chirino, owner of an auto parts factory in Caracas that reopened this week, said he could not keep his business closed any longer. “We wanted to have some income, and we had to meet some commitments dating back to November,” he said. “We needed to bring in income to pay our workers.”

The reopening of businesses appears to give Chavez the upper hand in negotiations with the opposition that are being mediated by the Organization of American States. The government’s position could be further solidified as the state-owned oil company continues to reactivate oil production.

“The opposition has basically lost the strike,” said Gregory Wilpert, an American here who is finishing a book about the Chavez era. “They gambled that the strike would get rid of Chavez, and the strike failed. They now don't have many other options.”

The Group of Friends is made up of the United States, Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Spain and Portugal.

With that intervention, “the national strike has reached its objectives and the protest is entering a new phase,” Torrealba claimed.

The opposition to Chavez announced Friday it would “rethink” the general strike next week. It has been on since December 2, and its impact has been greatest due to the blow it has dealt to the key oil industry and the state oil giant PDVSA.

However, experts say the strike had begun to falter as many companies, faced with bankruptcy, re-opened for business, according to the BBC news online.

The National Banking Council and the Venezuelan Banking Association said they decided by a two-thirds vote to restart normal operating hours from Monday.

Management at shopping centers, restaurants and schools were also reportedly planning to return to work Monday.

The strikes have forced Venezuelans to queue for cash, food and gas, and sparked angry protests in which at least seven people have been killed.

Change of Tactics The strikes have forced Venezuelans to queue for cash, food and gas

Having agreed to ease back on the strike, opposition leaders are now focusing their efforts on gathering signatures for a petition aimed at pressuring Chavez out of power.

Opposition leaders intend Sunday to hold what they have described as the “Great Sign-up” in which the people of Venezuela will be called upon to register their support for a number of demands for the government.

Chief amongst these would be a constitutional amendment which would change Chavez’s term of office from six years to just four.

Under the country’s constitution, opposition leaders would be permitted to make the request if they secured the signatures of 15% of Venezuela’s registered voters - approximately 1.8 million people.

“Our idea is to get 5 million signatures,” Carlos Ocariz, from the opposition party Justice First, said.

Chavez has repeatedly brushed aside calls for his resignation and seems determined to not surrender the leadership.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Sunday, February 02, 2003 - 7:11:57 AM By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

According to Higher Business Studies Institute (IESA), there are around 1 million persons in Venezuela living in a state of social exclusion. Researchers attending a forum titled, “Social Pact towards overcoming poverty and development,” describe such persons as people with no work, no education no social nucleus .. 38% are young people and 75% men.

Andres Bello Catholic University (UCAB) Social Studies Institute director, Luis Pedro Espana makes a distinction between poverty patterns before and after the current government … "in 20 years before Chavez Frias there was a progressive curve of 56% of families moving towards poverty but in the last four years the curve has shot up spectacularly."

The forum has published the following conclusions:

800,000 families live in extreme poverty (approximately 4.5 million nucleons) bringing the housing shortage to 1.8 million houses

600,000 low-income households live in shacks

Of every 10 workers, 5 belong to informal sector, 2 are unemployed, 1 works in the public sector and two are on private sector payrolls

22% of people over 55 yrs. old are illiterate 652,000 children between the ages of 3-6 do not attend pre-school 142,000 (7-12) do not go the primary school 208,00 miss out at secondary schools

Espana says we have become a "society of losers looking for scapegoats and in need of an avenging angel … the current government is repeating mistakes of the past but using the avenger discourse creating a series falsehoods based on confrontation.”

www.sltrib.com BY JUAN FORERO THE NEW YORK TIMES

    CARACAS, Venezuela -- With large numbers of businesses across Venezuela opening to offset huge financial losses from a 62-day-old general strike, opposition leaders said Saturday that they would scale back the walkout this week so that factories, shops, malls and schools could reopen.

    The strike, which has failed in its originally stated mission to force President Hugo Chavez to resign or to call early elections, will continue only in the all-important oil industry.

    But the decision, which opposition leaders said would be explained in detail in a news conference today, was seen as a clear victory for Chavez, who has played down the walkout while calling its organizers fascists and coup plotters.

    The government's opponents characterized their action as a new phase in their efforts to unseat Chavez. They asserted that the strike, which began Dec. 2, had led to international participation in Venezuela's political crisis and pressed the government into negotiations that could lead to an electoral solution.

    "Now that there is a concrete proposal for elections, the Venezuelan conflict is going into a new phase where the key to the protest is no longer the strike but negotiations," said Jesus Torrealba, executive secretary of the opposition group's coordinating committee.

    But the fact is that for many days the strike has been one in name only, with Venezuelans having tired of a walkout that had devastated their economy while bringing none of the results promised in December. The blow to the Venezuelan economy, Latin America's fourth-largest, is estimated at $4 billion in lost oil revenues alone.

    "We share the opposition's opinion, but we live by working," said Maritza Rondon, owner of a wholesale hardware store in Venezuela's second-largest city, Maracaibo, that reopened weeks ago. "Our business has nothing to do with our politics."

    Alfredo Chirino, owner of an auto parts factory in Caracas that reopened last week, said he could not keep his business closed any longer. "We wanted to have some income, and we had to meet some commitments dating back to November," he said. "We needed to bring in income to pay our workers."

    The reopening of businesses appears to give Chavez the upper hand in negotiations with the opposition that are being mediated by the Organization of American States. The government's position could be further solidified as the state-owned oil company continues to reactivate oil production.

    "The opposition has basically lost the strike," said Gregory Wilpert, an American here who is finishing a book about the Chavez era. "They gambled that the strike would get rid of Chavez, and the strike failed. They now don't have many other options."     Opposition leaders, who called their decision Saturday a goodwill gesture toward the government, said they would continue to apply pressure.

    Today, they plan to hold what is being called El Firmazo -- loosely translated as "the big sign-up" -- a petition drive. Organizers are hoping to collect hundreds of thousands of signatures to support a constitutional amendment to shorten the president's term and lead to new elections.