www.corpwatch.org By Naomi Klein Globe & Mail January 30, 2003

The key word at this year's World Social Forum, which ended Tuesday in Porto Alegre, Brazil, was "big." Big attendance: more than 100,000 delegates in all! Big speeches: more than 15,000 crammed in to see Noam Chomsky! And most of all, big men. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the newly elected President of Brazil, came to the forum and addressed 75,000 adoring fans. Hugo Chavez, the controversial President of Venezuela, paid a "surprise" visit to announce that his embattled regime was part of the movement.

"The left in Latin America is being reborn," Mr. Chavez declared, as he pledged to vanquish his opponents at any cost. As evidence of this rebirth, he pointed to Lula's election in Brazil, Lucio Gutierrez's victory in Ecuador and Fidel Castro's tenacity in Cuba.

But wait a minute: How on earth did a gathering that was supposed to be a showcase for new grassroots movements become a celebration of men with a penchant for three-hour speeches about smashing the oligarchy?

Of course, the forum, in all its dizzying global diversity, was not only speeches, with huge crowds all facing the same direction. There were plenty of circles, with small groups of people facing each other. There were thousands of impromptu gatherings of activists excitedly swapping facts, tactics and analysis in their common struggles. But the big certainly put its mark on the event.

Two years ago, at the first World Social Forum, the key word was not "big" but "new": new ideas, new methods, new faces. Because if there was one thing that most delegates agreed on (and there wasn't much), it was that the left's traditional methods had failed.

This came from hard-won experience, experience that remains true even if some left-wing parties have been doing well in the polls recently. Many of the delegates at that first forum had spent their lives building labor parties, only to watch helplessly as those parties betrayed their roots once in power, throwing up their hands and implementing the paint-by-numbers policies dictated by global markets. Other delegates came with scarred bodies and broken hearts after fighting their entire lives to free their countries from dictatorship or racial apartheid, only to see their liberated land hand its sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund for a loan.

Still others who attended that first forum were refugees from doctrinaire Communist parties who had finally faced the fact that the socialist "utopias" of Eastern Europe had turned into centralized, bureaucratic and authoritarian nightmares. And outnumbering all of these veteran activists was a new and energetic generation of young people who had never trusted politicians, and were finding their own political voice on the streets of Seattle, Prague and Sao Paulo.

When this global rabble came together under the slogan "Another world is possible," it was clear to all but the most rigidly nostalgic that getting to this other world wouldn't be a matter of resuscitating the flawed models of the past, but imagining new movements.

The World Social Forum didn't produce a political blueprint -- a good start -- but there was a clear pattern to the alternatives that emerged. Politics had to be less about trusting well-meaning leaders, and more about empowering people to make their own decisions; democracy had to be less representative and more participatory. The ideas flying around included neighborhood councils, participatory budgets, stronger city governments, land reform and co-operative farming -- a vision of politicized communities that could be networked internationally to resist further assaults from the IMF, the World Bank and World Trade Organization. For a left that had tended to look to centralized state solutions to solve almost every problem, this emphasis on decentralization and direct participation was a breakthrough.

At the first World Social Forum, Lula was cheered, too: not as a heroic figure who vowed to take on the forces of the market and eradicate hunger, but as an innovator whose party was at the forefront of developing tools for impoverished people to meet their own needs. Sadly, those themes of deep participation and democratic empowerment were largely absent from Mr. da Silva's campaign for president. Instead, he told and retold a personal story about how voters could trust him because he came from poverty, and knew their pain. But standing up to the demands of the international financial community isn't about whether an individual politician is trustworthy, it's about the fact that, as Mr. da Silva is already proving, no person or party is strong enough on its own.

Right now, it looks as if Lula has only two choices: abandoning his election promises of wealth redistribution or trying to force them through and ending up in a Chavez-style civil war. But there is another option, one his own Workers Party has tried before, one that made Porto Alegre itself a beacon of a new kind of politics: more democracy. He could simply hand power back to the citizens who elected him, on key issues from payment of the foreign debt, to land reform, to membership in the Free Trade Area of the Americas. There is a host of mechanisms that he could use: referendums, constituents' assemblies, networks of empowered local councils and assemblies. Choosing an alternative economic path would still spark fierce resistance, but his opponents would not have the luxury of being against Lula, as they are against Mr. Chavez, and would, instead, be forced to oppose the repeated and stated will of the majority -- to be against democracy itself.

Perhaps the reason why participatory democracy is being usurped at the World Social Forum by the big men is that there isn't much glory in it. A victory at the ballot box isn't a blank check for five years, but the beginning of an unending process of returning power to that electorate time and time again.

For some, the hijacking of the forum is proof that the movements against corporate globalization are finally maturing and "getting serious." But is it really so mature, amidst the graveyard of failed, left political projects, to believe that change will come by casting your ballot for the latest charismatic leader, then crossing your fingers and hoping for the best? Get serious.

Naomi Klein, author of No Logo and Fences and Windows, resumes her monthly column in The Globe and Mail.

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townsvillebulletin.news.com.au From correspondents in New York 31jan03

WORLD oil prices rose today as traders sweated over the threat of war in Iraq. Prices advanced as US President George W. Bush warned that efforts to disarm Baghdad peacefully would end in "weeks, not months".

The previous day, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld gave US lawmakers a closed-door briefing on Iraq.

They apparently previewed some of the evidence that the United States has promised to furnish showing that Iraq is not cooperating with the United Nations weapons inspections.

Powell is to deliver the information in an address to the UN Security Council on February 5.

"There was a little bit of buying pressure on the back of the Colin Powell report on Iraq, which makes the conflict more likely," said Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Rothman.

New York's light sweet crude March-dated futures climbed 22 cents to $US33.85 a barrel, adding to a 96 cent surge the previous day.

In London, the price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for March delivery rose 22 cents to $US31.24.

Traders were looking ahead to Powell's speech, ABN Amro broker Mark Keenan said in London.

Prices had already climbed sharply Wednesday when a keenly watched report revealed an unexpectedly sharp decline in weekly US oil inventories.

US stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks, to around their lowest level in 27 years, after a two-month-old crisis in Venezuela crimped exports from one of the leading suppliers to the US market.

Although there had been signs in recent days that opponents of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez were loosening their stranglehold on the country's oil sector, analysts said it would likely be some time before exports returned to normal levels.

Chavez has expressed confidence production will be back to regular levels within about a month, though experts are skeptical of the claim.

Daily oil production, which was down to a trickle a few weeks ago, is now at least one third of its pre-strike levels of more than 3 million barrels.

Chavez put daily output at 1.3 million barrels, while the opposition has conceded it passed the 1 million barrel mark.

"Many see what is happening as the beginning of the end of the dispute, which is probably correct," said GNI-Man Financial analyst Lawrence Eagles in London.

"But how long it takes to reach that end could be critical for the market – particularly with war against Iraq likely by the end of next month," he added.

reuters.com Thu January 30, 2003 07:49 PM ET By Pascal Fletcher

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - A six-nation group, including the United States and Brazil, began a mission on Thursday to secure an elections deal to end Venezuela's 60-day-old opposition strike that has forced the government to prepare tough currency controls.

Envoys from the group, which includes Mexico, Chile, Spain and Portugal, gathered in Caracas to bolster talks between President Hugo Chavez and his opponents, who are feuding over his leftist leadership of the world's No. 5 oil exporter.

Despite growing hopes for an accord, Chavez, a firebrand ex-paratrooper who survived a coup last year, has given no indication he will accept opposition calls for an early poll.

In a speech on Thursday, the populist president blasted his striking foes as "traitors" trying to wreck the country. "No one is going to sink Venezuela," he said, as his supporters chanted "Hey, hey, Chavez is here to stay!"

Deputy foreign ministers from the six-nation "group of friends," formed this month to help tackle the Venezuelan crisis, were due to hold talks during dinner late on Thursday with Organization of American States Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria.

The strike has slashed vital oil exports to overseas clients, including the United States, which normally obtains more than 13 percent of its imports from Venezuela.

Gaviria is brokering peace talks between the government and the opposition which have so far failed to agree on elections to halt the strike that is threatening Venezuela with economic ruin and has raised world oil prices.

He said the foreign envoys would meet on Friday with Chavez and negotiators from the government and the opposition.

Although support for the opposition strike has clearly weakened, state oil employees have vowed to stay out until Chavez accepts an early vote. The eight-week stoppage is still draining oil revenues despite government moves to restore output, which it says reached 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) on Wednesday. Strike leaders put output at around 1 million bpd.

Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega said the strike, which he called a "kamikaze attack" on the strategic oil sector, had cut economic growth and would increase inflation and unemployment.

BELT-TIGHTENING MEASURES

He said the government would introduce a fixed currency exchange rate as part of controls to stop capital flight which has bled the nation's reserves during the strike.

"Don't let the savage capitalists think for a moment that we are going to leave any gaps for them to take out dollars," Chavez said. The foreign exchange controls will be introduced next Thursday but the government has said it will continue foreign debt payments.

Nobrega also announced the government would slash the budget of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) by $2.7 billion -- a cut of almost one-third -- as it absorbs a slump in vital oil export revenues.

The belt-tightening measures found favor on Wall Street. Citing the slow recovery of oil output and the government's efforts to preserve cash for debt payments, investment banks Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley both raised their recommendations on Venezuelan sovereign bonds.

Fears of a worsening economic crisis and violent social upheaval have added urgency to the mission of the "group of friends." "This nation needs solutions. ... The crisis is too deep," opposition negotiator Rafael Alfonzo told Reuters.

Chavez, whose opponents accuse him of dragging the South American nation toward Cuba-style communism, refuses to resign. The opposition has proposed a constitutional amendment to cut his term to four years from six and trigger early elections.

Dampening hopes for an accord, Chavez, elected in 1998, told strikers on Wednesday to forget about him leaving office.

He has vowed to beat the strike, which he portrays as an attempt to topple him by wealthy, hostile elites opposed to his self-styled "revolution" in favor of the nation's poor.

Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton, a government negotiator, underscored Chavez's determination, saying: "The government is not interested in getting rid of itself. It is not seeking either a shortened term or early elections or any change of government even within the framework of the constitution."

Observers of the talks said the six nations wanted to build a climate of confidence, focus attention on the key electoral issue and act as guarantors of any agreement.

But they added that a settlement did not appear close. "I haven't heard anyone who is in the middle of the (negotiating) table saying that ... This process is still ongoing," said Matthew Hodes of the Atlanta-based Carter Center, which is headed by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. (Additional reporting by Silene Ramirez, Ana Isabel Martinez)

www.voanews.com VOA News 30 Jan 2003, 22:58 UTC

Diplomats from six nations are set to meet with Venezuelan government and opposition leaders in Caracas Friday in the latest push to end the nation's political crisis.

The officials belong to the "Friends of Venezuela" group, which comprises Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States.

The delegates are hoping to work out an electoral accord to end a long-running general strike that the opposition called last month to force President Hugo Chavez out of office.

They are expected to discuss proposals set forth by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter that call for either a recall referendum in August or a constitutional amendment to allow for early elections.

The Friends of Venezuela group was formed to lend diplomatic support to the Organization of American States, which has been mediating talks between the Chavez government and his opponents.

The meeting comes as the general strike, which began December second, shows signs of weakening. Venezuelan banking officials say banks will resume normal business hours next Monday, after operating on a limited schedule to support the walkout.

Striking oil executives also have acknowledged that output, which was virtually paralyzed several weeks ago, has now surpassed one million barrels per day.

Oil provides half of government income and 70 percent of export revenue. Before the strike began, Venezuela was the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.

www.thestar.com Jan. 30, 2003. 06:11 PM

Click to launch  Big oil unlikely to see 2002 profit jump repeated in 2003

FROM CANADIAN PRESS Four of Canada's biggest integrated oil companies nearly tripled their fourth-quarter profits to $1.3 billion thanks to higher oil and gas prices, but analysts say there won't likely be a repeat performance in 2003.

For Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO), Petro-Canada (TSX: PCA), Shell Canada (TSX: SHC) and Suncor Energy (TSX: SU), the fourth quarter in particular and 2002 overall was a bonanza as the threat of a U.S. war with Iraq and a major strike in Venezuela pushed oil prices above $30 (U.S.) a barrel by year-end.

Higher prices for oil and natural gas helped make 2002 a stellar year for the industry leaders, which also benefitted from increased production from new projects or acquisitions and improved profits in gasoline refining and marketing to make it a stellar year for the industry.

But Gord Currie, an analyst with Canaccord Capital, said it's ``unlikely" that 2003 will be as strong as 2002 for Canada's big oil companies because prices are likely to dip as the Iraq situation is resolved.

"Whenever oil and gas prices are as high as they are today the balance of probabilities is that they're going to be lower," he said. "I think it's just a question of time — is it the second quarter or a year from now, we don't know. But it would be very difficult for 2003 to measure up."

The financial results release so far by four of Canada's biggest oil producers, refiners and gasoline marketers are reaping the benefits of higher prices while they have that option.

EnCana Corp. (TSX: ECA), created last year by the merger of PanCanadian Energy and Alberta Energy Corp. to form the largest Canadian independent oil and gas producer, isn't due to release its fourth-quarter results until Feb. 20.

But Petro-Canada issued vastly improved results Thursday when it reported a 440-per-cent increase in its fourth-quarter earnings — to $356 million from $66 million a year ago.

Higher energy prices were the main cause, although Petro-Canada also gained from its acquisition last year of the international assets of Veba Oil & Gas, whose production and exploration is focused in the North Sea, North Africa and northern Latin America.

Petro-Canada chief executive Ron Brenneman called 2002 "an outstanding year" which annual profits rose by 15 per cent over 2001 to $974 million.

Shell Canada's earnings report Thursday echoed these events as its profits rose to $247 million in the fourth quarter from $170 million a year ago. Full-year profits, fell, however, to $561 million from just over $1 billion a year ago, a period of extraordinarily high natural gas prices.

Last week, Calgary-based Suncor Energy reported fourth-quarter profits soared more than tenfold to $258 million from $26 million. For the year, profits of $761 million were nearly double the year earlier.

Energy giant Imperial Oil more than doubled its profits to $454 million in the fourth quarter as high oil prices helped the company post its third-biggest annual profit ever.

For the full year, the Toronto-based company, a subsidiary of U.S.-based ExxonMobil, earned a profit of $1.2 billion compared with $1.24 billion in 2001.

Last year started with reasonable oil prices but then U.S. President George W. Bush unidentified Iraq as a possible target and ``oil prices started a long gradual climb to $30 US and then, with a little help from Venezuela, pushed right through the $30 US level," Currie said.

The Venezuelan strike continues but production from the world's fifth-largest oil producer has recently gained ground, though it's still below the three million barrels per day it pumped before prior to Dec. 2.

The main wildcard with oil prices this year, which have averaged nearly $33 US a barrel in January, is how the war on Iraq plays itself out, said Stephen Calderwood, an oil and gas analyst with Salman Partners Inc. in Calgary.

Calderwood is estimating the price of oil in 2003 will average about $25 US, and that's with an expectation that a war on Iraq will occur by the end of February and will be relatively quick.

"We still there's going to be a war and we still think the oil price will take a huge nosedive after the event," Calderwood said.

However, Currie notes that there are a multitude of possible scenarios in Iraq.

Oil prices could stay high if the conflict is long and drawn-out conflict, or if the U.S. gives weapons inspectors a long time to complete their job, he said.