www.dailytimes.com.pk Staff Report

KARACHI: The Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC) raised retail prices of different petroleum products by between 0.98 and 4.39 percent and the price of MS87-RON by Rs 0.32 to Rs 32.96 per litre for the next fortnight, according to a press release issued Friday.

“In the backdrop of the Iraq crisis and a strike that has disrupted crude exports from Venezuela, prices of crude oil and products have undergone a sharp increase,” the press release said. FOB price of Arabian light crude oil during the last fortnight reached a peak of $39.60 per barrel and registered an increase of 6.1 percent when compared to the first fortnight of January 2003, the press release said. The increase in the Arabian Light FOB crude oil price for the month of February 2003 is $2.28 per barrel or 8.6 percent in comparison to the price in December 2002.

“FOB prices of both crude oil and products are at their highest levels since July 2001,” the press release said. “Average exchange rate during the fortnight improved by Rs 0.14 due to the strengthening of the rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar.”

According to the OCAC press release, Arab Gulf FOB prices of Naphtha increased 2.01 percent to $264.81 per tonne from $259.60 per tonne during the first fortnight of January. The price of Arab Gulf kerosene oil increased 4.31 percent to $32.21 per barrel from $30.88 per barrel over the same period.

Product Existing Revised increase Rs/Litre Rs/Litre Rs/Litre MS-87 RON 32.64 32.96 0.32 HOBC 36.55 36.83 0.28 Kerosene Oil 20.62 21.32 0.70 Light Diesel 17.53 18.30 0.77

europe.cnn.com By Christy Oglesby CNN Friday, January 31, 2003 Posted: 2322 GMT

[Editors Note: The analysis and views presented in this project are based on interviews with experts at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan national membership organization, think tank and publisher, with headquarters in New York, offices in Washington, D.C., and programs nationwide.]

(CNN) -- Iraq and North Korea have dominated the world's attention in recent months, yet in countries and regions around the globe, strife smolders with sporadic notice.

Civil war. Mutilations. Threat of nuclear deployment. Human trafficking. Starving babies. Those are some of the seeds and harvest of conflicts in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America.

Neglecting these conflicts is dangerous, said Arthur Helton, director for peace and conflict studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a national think tank and publisher with headquarters in New York and offices in Washington.

"States that are weak and cannot police their own territories, that are involved in wars among their people, those are places that dedicated terrorists can inhabit," Helton said in an interview. Experts noted that is what happened in Afghanistan under the Taliban, where al Qaeda terrorists were able plan and train for attacks in the years before September 11, 2001.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan made a similar point recently when he told journalists that crises throughout the globe demand attention despite the current spotlight on Iraq and North Korea.

Though the U.N. Security Council is charged with focusing on Iraq at this time, Annan noted, "The international community should be focusing on some of the other agendas, other issues."

Experts at the Council on Foreign Relations provided CNN.com with outlines of some of the world's regional conflicts they consider particularly critical and offered recommendations for possible solutions.

The countries and regions in conflict identified for this project are: Angola, the Balkans, Burundi, Colombia, Indonesia, Kashmir, the Philippines, Uzbekistan, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

These are areas wrestling with instability, rebels or hostilities that could jeopardize other continents or the world, the experts said.

"It is not possible to live in a world of gated communities," Helton said. "It is just not a sustainable future to think that North America and Western Europe can prosper while Africa continues to spiral downward."

Each of these regions is a former colony or has evolved from the breakup of another entity. Yugoslavia's 1991 demise following the collapse of the Iron Curtain, for example, created six Balkan countries. Britain once controlled Zimbabwe and Kashmir. Uzbekistan emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Others are former colonies.

In some cases, the disintegration of the progenitor or the colonial past is so remote that it has no bearing on current conflict. But in others, the link between past problems and present troubles is obvious.

A civil war in Angola erupted with the African nation's independence from Portugal in 1975. Since then, the Council on Foreign Relations says as many as 1.5 million people may have died in the power struggle between two factions.

An Indonesian student shouts during a demonstration protesting fuel and electricity price hikes.

In Indonesia, experts said, lingering memories of the nation's legacy as a colony of the Netherlands has left a reluctance to accept help from outsiders.

"Countries that might want to provide humanitarian assistance or link development with conflict prevention strategies are seen as suspect," said David L. Phillips, a senior fellow and deputy director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The Soviet legacies in Uzbekistan include depleted water resources as a result of aggressive farming techniques, partially cleaned toxic dumps and soil contaminated with fertilizers that have shown up in breast milk in areas with high incidences of birth defects, said Rajan Menon, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Because the government is authoritarian, said Menon, " when social and economic tensions exist, there's no place ... to vent them, and therefore they take radical turns."

"One is that there has been an underground Islamist movement called the IMU, the Islamist Movement of Uzbekistan, which clearly had links with the Taliban regime in Central Asia."

Millions of Zimbabweans face starvation, a U.S.-based food monitoring organization reported recently. Agriculture officials blame the impending food shortage on drought and the government's controversial seizure of farmland owned by members of the nation's white minority for redistribution to landless blacks in an attempt to right a colonial wrong.

"There is a generation now to whom colonial rule is a distant memory," he said " ... Rulers are going to have to deal with the expectation of the public quite independently of the historical legacy.

It is not conceivable that one country can wither without affecting others, policy experts said. Technology, high-speed travel and interdependent economies make it impossible for even the most remote place to function as an island, they said.

In Colombia, the lack of a strong legal system, drug trafficking, energy problems, kidnappings and bombings can create economic shock waves that ripple in places such as Brazil, Ecuador and Peru, said Julia Sweig, senior fellow and deputy director of the Council on Foreign Relations' Latin America Program.

Political problems in Venezuela have raised international concerns because of that South American nation's role as one of the world's leading oil suppliers. The tensions, for example, have prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production to mitigate a shortfall in supply.

Since tensions broke out in the African nation of Burundi in 1993, more than 200,000 people have been killed, Helton said, and hundreds of thousands more have been displaced. "Burundi could evolve into a genocide without too much imagining," he said.

The concern for the Balkans is that the economy could slip further into criminalized activity where there already is growing poverty and trafficking in people. The Philippines represents a potential harbor for terrorists given the presence of Abu Sayyaf, a radical Islamic group.

The conflict over Kashmir has raised the specter of nuclear conflict. Pakistan and India -- two nuclear powers -- both claim the region, an area with ambiguous ownership ever since the partition of British holdings in South Asia during the last century.

"The Indian government has been pretty clear on no first use [of nuclear weapons]," said Radha Kumar, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "However, I don't understand where their confidence comes from that Pakistan will never use them. ... Most of the U.S. intelligence was that Pakistan had gone a long way down the road to deployment."

Yes, the world is a messy place. But the instruments are there to deal with these problems.

Most regions in conflict suffer from long absences of international attention until overwhelming bloodshed or combat renews interest, Helton said, adding that the cycle of atrocity, shock, atrocity should be a wake-up call to seek lasting solutions.

"The effort to sort of disregard those events has a short-term advantage, but over the long term, it is terribly destabilizing," he said. "To the extent that we have a world in surprise after surprise indicates there's something lacking in our general world order."

In his comments at the United Nations in January, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan expressed optimism and said these conflicts across the globe represent opportunities for the international community to work toward peace.

"Nations working together can make a difference. Nations upholding the rule of law can advance the cause of a fairer world," he said. "Yes, the world is a messy place. But the instruments are there to deal with these problems."

www.dailytimes.com.pk By Eduardo Galeano

Sigmund Freud had learned it from Jean-Martin Charcot: ideas can be implanted by hypnosis in the human mind. More than a century has gone by since then, and the technology of manipulation has made great strides. This is a colossal machine, the size of the planet, that orders us to repeat the messages it puts inside our heads. It’s a word-abusing machine. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, had been elected, and re-elected, by an overwhelming majority, in a much more transparent election than the one that put George W Bush in power in the United States. The machine propelled the coup that tried to overthrow Chavez - not because of his style, or his tendency toward logorrhea, but because of the reforms he proposed and the heresies he committed. Chavez touched the untouchables. And the untouchables, the owners of the media and almost everything elsewhere outraged. With complete freedom they denounced the crushing of freedom. Inside and outside his own country, the machine turned Chavez into a “tyrant,” a “delirious autocrat” and an “enemy of democracy.” Against him was the “citizenry”. Behind him were the “mobs,” which did not meet in rooms but in “lairs”. The media-engineered coup was able to generate only a virtual power, and it didn’t last. The media campaign was decisive in the avalanche that lead to the coup, programmed from abroad against this ferocious ‘dictatorship’ that did not have a single political prisoner. Then the Presidency was occupied by a businessman for whom nobody voted, and whose first democratic measure was to dissolve the Parliament. The stock market went up the following day, but a popular uprising returned Chavez to his legitimate post. As Venezuelan writer Luis Britto Garcia put it, the media-engineered coup was able to generate only a virtual power, and it didn’t last. Venezuelan television bastion of information freedom—did not get wind of the upsetting news.. And in the meantime, the slaughter of Palestinians continues. The world’s manufacturers of public opinion call it a “hunting down of terrorists.” “Palestinian” is a synonym of “terrorist”, but this word is never used to refer to the Israeli army. The territories seized by continuous military invasions are called “disputed territories.” And Palestinians - who are Semitic - turn out to be “anti-Semitic.” For more than a century they have been condemned to atone for the sins of European anti-Semitism, and to pay with their land and their blood for a Holocaust they did not perpetrate. There is a Gutlessness Competition at the Human Rights Commission of the United Nations, which always aims South, never North. The commission specializes in charging against Cuba, and this year Uruguay had the honour to lead the pack. Nobody said: “I do it so that they buy what I sell, or: “I do it so they lend me what I need, or: “I do it so they loosen the rope that’s tightening around my neck. The art of good governing allows its practitioners not to think what they say, but it forbids them from saying what they think. And the media took advantage of the occasion to confirm, once again, that the blockaded island is one of the baddies. In the dictionary of the machine, the bribes that politicians receive are called “contributions,” and their betrayals are called “pragmatism.” The word “security” refers not to notions of safety and protection, but to investments; and it is in the stock exchange that these “securities” undergo all kinds of crises. Where we see “the international community demands,” we should read: the financial dictatorship imposes. “International community” is also the pseudonym that shelters the great powers in their military campaigns of extermination, also called “pacifying missions.” The “pacified” are the dead. The third war against Iraq is already in the works. As in the two previous ones, the bombers will be called “allied forces” while the bombed will be “fanatic mobs.” And the attackers will leave behind a trail of civilian corpses, which will be called “collateral damages”. In order to explain this next war, President Bush does not say: “Big oil and big weapons need it badly, and my government is a pipeline and an arsenal. “Nor does he explain his multibillion project for the militarisation of space with words like: “We are going to annex the sky the way we annexed Texas.” No, the explanation is that the free world that must defend itself against the threat of terrorism, both here on Earth and beyond. Even though terrorism has demonstrated it prefers kitchen knives to missiles, and despite the fact that the United States is opposed to the International Criminal Court that has been recently established to punish crimes against humanity. In general, the words uttered by power are not meant to express its actions, but to disguise them. More than a century ago, at the glorious battle of Omdurman, in Sudan, where Winston Churchill was both reporter and soldier, 48 Britons sacrificed their lives. In addition, 27,000 (savages) died. The British were pushing their colonial expansion by fire and the sword, and they justified it by saying: “We are civilizing Africa through commerce.” They were not saying: “We are commercialising Africa through civilization.” And nobody was asking Africans their opinion on the matter. But we are fortunate enough to live in the information age, and the giants of mass communications love objectivity. They even allow for the point of view of the enemy to be expressed as well. During the Vietnam War, for example, the point of view of the enemy was 3% of the coverage given by ABC, CBS and NBC. The Pentagon acknowledges that propaganda is part of the military budget, and the White House has hired Charlotte Beers, a publicity expert who had pushed certain brands of rice and dog food in the local markets. She is now in charge of pushing the crusade against terrorism into the world market. “We’re selling a product,” quipped Colin Powell. Brazilian writer Millor Fernandes confirms that “in order not to see reality, the ostrich sinks its head in the television set.” The machine dictates orders, the machine stones you. On September 11, the loudspeakers of the second twin tower in New York were also giving stunning orders, when the tower started to creak. As people ran down the stairs, the loudspeakers were ordering everyone to return to their workstations. Those who survived, disobeyed. —Iraq Daily

Eduardo Galeano, a Uruguayan journalist, is the author of “Upside Down: A Primer for the Looking-Glass World,” “Memory of Fire” and “The Open Veins of Latin America,” and one of most popular writers around the GNN bunker.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.31.03, 5:25 PM ET By Elizabeth Lazarowitz

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The winds of war have been buffeting Wall Street, sending skittish investors to the sidelines, and the storm is only likely to intensify next week as the White House makes its last diplomatic push for Iraqi disarmament.

With U.S. forces massing in the Middle East and the rhetoric from Washington heating up, the United States appears increasingly on the brink of war. The suspense is killing stocks and has plunged key market gauges to their lowest levels in more than three months.

President George W. Bush has said Baghdad has just weeks left to avert war, and Wall Street will be tuned in for anything that might give clues to a timeline for a possible U.S. attack on Iraq.

"Iraq will be the most important issue next week -- period," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Asset Management. Ordinarily, investors' focus would be fixed on the outlook for the economy and corporate profits, but "next week is just not going to be an ordinary week."

While brewing geopolitical events will likely shove nearly everything else to the back burner, a flood of economic reports -- particularly data on the manufacturing sector and the labor market -- could help determine Wall Street's mood.

The Institute of Supply Management's closely watched gauge of the factory sector, set for release on Monday, and the U.S. payrolls report on Friday will give investors some early glimpses of the state of the economy in January.

Evidence that the U.S. economy is pulling out of its soggy patch has been spotty, at best, and the increasing possibility of war has whipped up fears growth could stumble as corporate America puts off investment decisions and stubbornly high oil prices bite into corporate profits.

The steady parade of corporate earnings will probably also fade into the background somewhat, but Wall Street will be tuned in for results and, more importantly, forecasts from technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc. (nasdaq: CSCO - news - people) and No. 4 U.S. long-distance telephone company Sprint Corp. (nyse: CSCO - news - people)

INDEXES DOWN War worries have helped drive the broad Standard & Poor's 500 index <.SPX> down about 8 percent from its high for the year hit on Jan. 14 and into negative ground for the year.

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> are both down around 3 percent, and the tech-packed Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> is down about 1 percent. All three finished the week lower after the S&P 500 and Dow posted their lowest closes since mid-October and the Nasdaq ended at its worst level since mid-November on Thursday.

Wall Street will be watching on Wednesday when U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell goes before the United Nations Security Council to try to persuade doubters Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. Iraq denies it possesses banned arms.

"That stuff is in the way of the market right now. Nobody's going to want to go long in a big way until this Iraq thing gets cleared up," said Michael Vogelzang, president of Boston Advisors Inc. "It's just going dominate headlines. It's going to dominate investor sentiment."

Bush said on Friday at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair that the United States would resist any attempt to drag out the issue for months, but that he would welcome a second U.N. Security Council resolution if it offers a strong signal to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Bush believes that a U.N. resolution in November gives authority for military force, but he faces opposition from major powers such as France, Russia and Germany.

Worries that a war could disrupt oil supplies, as well as a two-month strike that has crippled oil production in Venezuela, a major U.S. supplier, have helped push the price of crude oil above $33 a barrel.

Those high prices have sparked fears that corporate profits, already tepid, could take another blow as companies and consumers are forced to shell out more for energy costs.

EARNINGS, ECONOMY STILL UNSTEADY The fourth-quarter results pouring in from corporate America have been, for the most part, encouraging. About 67 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings so far, and, of those, 62 percent have beaten Wall Street analysts' expectations and 22 percent have matched them, according to Thomson First Call.

What is troubling, however, is that the outlook for corporate profits in the year ahead remains decidedly murky.

"So far, the guidance continues along the lines of no visibility," said Charles White, president of investment firm Avatar Associates. "Companies don't even want to say anymore that they see things getting better in the second half, because that's what they told us last year."

Results are expected next week from technology bellwether Cisco, Sprint, medical device maker Boston Scientific Corp. (nyse: BSX - news - people), consumer products company Colgate-Palmolive Co. (nyse: BSX - news - people), No. 2 U.S. drugstore chain CVS Corp. (nyse: BSX - news - people), and No. 1 U.S. home appliance maker Whirlpool Corp. (nyse: BSX - news - people).

Beverage and food company Pepsico Inc. (nyse: PEP - news - people) and Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (nyse: PEP - news - people), the maker of Budweiser beer, also have results on tap. But with the peak of earnings season now past, the economic picture is becoming increasingly important, analysts said.

The ISM report for January is expected to slip to 53.7 from 55.2 in December, according to economists in a Reuters survey. It would be the third month in a row above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction, potentially cementing hopes the manufacturing sector is recovering from its slump.

The report on non-farm payrolls will be the economic highlight of the week. Payrolls are seen rising by 70,000 in January after a 101,000 drop in December, while the jobless rate is expect to remain steady at 6.0 percent.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.31.03, 4:58 PM ET   

CARACAS, Venezuela, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Venezuela's state-owned aluminum smelter CVG-Alcasa said Friday it had chosen a consortium comprising Swiss-based Glencore International AG, Pechiney of France <PECH.PA> and U.S. construction firm Fluor Daniel (nyse: FLR - news - people) to build a fifth production line at the plant.

The $650 million Alacasa Line V project will more than double the smelter's existing output capacity to 450,000 tonnes a year from the existing 210,000 tonnes.

The announcement was made by Alcasa president Dixon Rosillon, the state industrial holding Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana (CVG), which operates the smelter, said in a statement sent to Reuters.