www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.30.03, 7:58 AM ET

IRVING, Texas (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp. , the world's No. 1 publicly-traded oil company, Thursday said fourth-quarter profit rose, as sharply higher oil and gas prices boosted exploration and production results. The Irving, Texas company reported fourth-quarter net income of $4.09 billion, or 60 cents a share, compared with net income of $2.68 billion, or 39 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Excluding special items, the company reported earnings per share of 56 cents, helped by the sharp rise in oil prices due to expectations of a U.S. war in Iraq and a labor strike in Venezuela. Analysts had forecast earnings of 45 cents to 53 cents a share, with a consensus estimate of 50 cents a share, according to research firm Thomson First Call. Shares of Exxon Mobil, a component of the Dow Jones industrial average, closed Wednesday trade on the New York Stock Exchange at $33.85. During the quarter, they rose almost 10 percent, outperforming the Standard & Poor's Integrated Oil & Gas index which increased 5 percent in the same period.

money.cnn.com 30, 2003: 7:02 AM EST

Energy Information Administration sees average price of at least $1.50 a gallon as stockpiles drop.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones Newswires) - Crimped by high oil prices and declining crude inventories, refiners are likely to hold off stockpiling gasoline for the spring, and that could result in sharply higher prices at the pump during the busy summer-driving season, Thursday's Wall Street Journal reported.

Gasoline prices already have been climbing, pushed upward by the rising price of crude oil. The U.S. average retail price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has risen 8% since early December to $1.47 as of Monday, and prices are expected to go even higher. The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, predicts an average price of at least $1.50 a gallon in February, a 40-cent-a-gallon jump above the same period last year, and of $1.54 a gallon by midspring.

Those forecasts don't take into account a possible war in Iraq and a subsequent disruption of oil from that Middle East country. A cold February, too, could result in refiners making more heating oil at the expense of gasoline.

The worrisome outlook comes as a strike in Venezuela, aimed at forcing President Hugo Chavez from office, has depleted U.S. crude-oil stocks about 5% since December to 273.8 million barrels. The EIA considers that " very low " -- 11% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Low crude-oil stocks have begun impacting gasoline production. Although nationwide inventories of gasoline are at 216.3 million barrels, about the same as a year ago, the EIA reported that the amount of crude run through U.S. refineries dropped last week by about 400,000 barrels a day to 14.6 million barrels a day, the lowest level since October.

Wall Street Journal Staff Reporters Thaddeus Herrick and Alexei Barrionuevo contributed to this article.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.30.03, 6:47 AM ET OPEC    

DOHA, Jan 30 (Reuters) - OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah said again on Thursday that the oil producers' group had done all it could to control world crude prices driven higher by war fever. Attiyah, also oil minister of Qatar, said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was pumping more than enough but the extra barrels could not negate the effect of the war threat on prices. "We are all concerned that high prices will harm the consumer and ultimately world economic growth. But there is nothing that OPEC can do about it," Attiyah told Reuters. "OPEC has no magic wand to solve the political problems and stop the rise in price." The threat of war in the Gulf region that supplies 40 percent of world crude exports and a strike that has cut oil supplies from Venezuela for nearly two months have pushed prices well beyond $30 a barrel. The OPEC President said the exporters' group had done its duty to keep global markets well supplied. "We as OPEC checked with all our customers whether they felt the shortage and whether they needed extra cargoes. The answer was no," he said. "Actually there is more oil in the market than the demand." Attiyah's concerns were shared by influential Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and OPEC Secretary-General Alvaro Silva last weekend at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The cartel agreed earlier this month to raise output by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from February to cover the supply gap left by strike-bound OPEC member Venezuela. Attiyah and others in OPEC are concerned that prices could deflate quickly if Venezuelan exports are restarted and an anticipated assault on Iraq only cuts supplies briefly. The OPEC chief has warned that markets could be flooded with oil when the arrival of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere cuts demand just as the group has raised supply. OPEC is due to meet on March 11 to review its output levels.

reuters.com Thu January 30, 2003 06:26 AM ET By Nigel Stephenson

LONDON (Reuters) - Shares and the dollar rose and safe-haven gold dipped on Thursday as investors seized on a slight easing in global tension after Washington said it was launching a final diplomatic push to avert war with Iraq.

Oil and risk-free government bond prices also fell as President Bush prepared to make a diplomatic push to persuade Iraq to disarm and thus avoid a possible conflict that has been unsettling financial markets for months.

Soothing signals about the state of the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve, which left interest rates at a four-decade low on Wednesday, also added to the less gloomy mood.

"I think probably the steady outlook they provided was the most reassuring for the market," said Rob Hayward, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO.

Fed policymakers left rates at 1.25 percent and said risks to the U.S. economy remained evenly balanced between higher prices and renewed downturn and expressed hope U.S. growth would pick up once fears of war with Iraq have lifted.

"An easing bias could have been justified by data or by uncertainties, but people would have been more concerned seeing that even the Fed's worried, and wonder if they are going to cut rates again or if the economy was in a worse position than thought."

The dollar firmed after a rally on Wall Street following the U.S. Federal Reserve's widely expected decision.

The euro was last trading around $1.0755, up more than half a percent from its New York close. The greenback hit a three-year low beyond $1.09 on Monday. The U.S. currency was up a third of a percent on the yen at 118.89.

"The dollar is following stocks now," said Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered in London.

"And as long as stocks open higher, the dollar will continue to have a good day. There is a feeling that a lot of bad news has already been priced in, and with most people being big sellers this is a good moment to take profits," he said.

The market was looking to U.S. fourth-quarter growth data due at 8:30 a.m. EST for more clues to the state of the economy. Economists forecast a subdued 0.7 percent annual growth rate after 4.0 percent in the previous three months.

STOCKS RISE AFTER FED STEADIES NERVES

European stocks rose after the Fed helped steady nerves rattled by the threat of war.

The FTSE Eurotop 300 index of pan-European blue chips was up 2.0 percent at 1100 GMT while the narrower DJ Euro STOXX 50 index was up 2.35 percent.

However, some money managers cautioned the downward trend, which saw nine consecutive days of losses, was still intact.

"Last week we had huge declines in equity markets and therefore some upward correction is inevitable, but we asset managers take a more medium-term view and we continue to underweight equities," said Joerg Kraemer, a strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Frankfurt.

U.S. stock index futures, which were lower in early European trade, turned higher, indicating Wall Street would open higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial average ended up 0.27 percent on Wednesday. The tech-dominated Nasdaq closed 1.18 percent higher after Merrill Lynch raised its outlook on Novellus Systems Inc, a maker of equipment used to produce computer chips.

Tokyo shares closed lower as institutions, spooked by the threat of war, sold blue chips. The Nikkei ended down 0.17 percent, just above a two-decade low hit last November. The broader TOPIX index dipped 0.07 percent.

Oil prices steadied as traders eyed Bush's diplomatic effort. Brent crude for March delivery was almost unchanged at $31 a barrel. U.S. light crude, which rose three percent on Wednesday on a big drop in U.S. winter heating oil stocks, was also flat at $33.63 a barrel.

The threat of war in the Gulf, which supplies 40 percent of world crude exports, and a strike in Venezuela, have pushed up prices 35 percent since late November.

Gold, seen as a safe place for investors to put their money in times of geopolitical turmoil, fell in Europe. Spot gold, which has risen some seven percent this year, was quoted at $363 an ounce, compared with $366 at Wednesday's New York close.

Safe-haven government bond prices fell. The yield on the two-year German Schatz, which moves in the opposite direction to the price, was up 2.7 basis points at 2.63 percent. It touched a 3-1/2 year low of 2.54 percent last week. The 10-year Bund was yielding 4.09 percent, up 2.7 basis points.

europe.cnn.com Thursday, January 30, 2003 Posted: 1120 GMT

LONDON, England -- Oil prices dipped slightly on Thursday as the U.S. upped the diplomatic pressure on Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to reveal any weapons of mass destruction.

However, a large drop in U.S. winter heating fuel stocks deepened oil supply worries.

Brent crude futures for March delivery were down 11 cents to $30.91 in London morning trading on Thursday.

The possibility of war in the Gulf region -- which supplies 40 percent of world crude oil exports -- and a strike that has cut exports from Venezuela have pushed up prices 35 percent since late November.

U.S. President George W. Bush continued to lobby for support in a war against Iraq. On February 5, Secretary of State Colin Powell will seek to build support for war. (Full story)

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, one of the European leaders most strongly opposed to war on Iraq, said on Wednesday he was unsure whether diplomacy would succeed in averting war.

Meanwhile, Britain led a group of eight European countries calling for unity in forcing Saddam to disarm. (Full story)

The combined European stance prompted analysts to say the market expected further oil price gains.

"The comments from European countries saying that Saddam has a short period of time in which to act leads me to believe that they will shift towards supporting the use of force in the next week or so," Sydney-based independent energy analyst Simon Games-Thomas told Reuters.

Wednesday's price gains came as the U.S. government reported that a two-week freeze across the eastern part of the country cut more than three million barrels, or eight percent, from heating oil stocks last week.

"Though it would be easy to focus on the near-$1 rally in crude prices, the real story for the day was the disproportionate strength in heating oil and gasoline prices," Michael Rothman, energy analyst at Merrill Lynch, told Reuters.

Supplies are now 16 percent below normal levels. Home heating oil prices are at 23-month highs, up 25 percent from last year, boosting concern over the economic impact of higher energy costs.

The U.S. has taken about two-thirds of all Iraq's U.N.-controlled oil exports in January as key supplier Venezuela struggles through a strike aimed at removing President Hugo Chavez from office. (Full story)

Venezuela, which normally supplies more than 13 percent of U.S. oil imports, said on Wednesday it had managed to raise strike-hit oil production to 1.4 million barrels a day, while striking oil workers put the output level at just above one million barrels.