Reuters, 01.29.03, 4:16 AM ET By Tanya Pang

SINGAPORE, Jan 29 (Reuters) - With war looming in the oil-rich Middle East, governments across Asia are stepping up emergency measures to protect energy-hungry economies from a possible crude price spike which would sap the region's fast growth.

With benchmark crude prices hovering close to 26-month peaks over $35 a barrel, import-dependent Asia, which has little by way of emergency stocks, is gearing up to safeguard supplies by stockpiling or enforcing measures to limit consumption.

South Korea, China, the Philippines and Thailand announced concrete emergency measures this week, while India, Bangladesh have been steadily extending inventories (see table below).

"We are ready to face any difficulty if there is an interuption in supplies. We are keeping our tanks full," Indian Oil Minister Ram Naik told Reuters on Wednesday.

Unexpected events such as the eight-week opposition strike in Venezuela, which has strangled sales from the world's fifth biggest exporter, and the possibility of war disrupting crude flows from the Middle East have reinforced Asia's vulnerabilty.

"For the last two to three months three factors have been supporting the market: the Venezuelan strike, Iraq and Asian buying," said Sarah Emerson, managing director at Energy Security Analysis (ESAI) in Boston.

"Asian governments and refiners tend to build inventory in a crisis, whereas Western countries don't have that kind of speculative buying pre-crisis, they have stocks," she said.

About 60 percent of Asia's daily crude requirement of 21 million barrels is shipped in from other continents, with roughly 10 million barrels a day coming from Middle East producers.

Only Japan and South Korea, which import virtually all their energy needs, have built appreciable state emergency reserves exceeding the minimum standard of 90 days of consumption set by the West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency.

Without that buffer, regional economies would be hard hit by soaring energy bills.

Since the 1997 financial crisis, Asia has been trying to boost domestic consumption as a cushion against external economic shocks. An oil price surge may hit consumer spending and corporate investment making Asia more reliant on exports.

The 10 ASEAN nations agreed at an unprecedented meeting with China, Japan and South Korea in Osaka, Japan, in September that concerted action was needed to step up energy security through cooperation and coordination of emergency policy.

ASEAN comprises Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Myanmar.

Analysts say the huge cost of building and maintaining inventory gives emerging economies little incentive to stockpile fuel.

"China is most likely to build strategic stocks as it still has fast growing demand growth. It is enormously dependent on Middle East crude and it can foot the bill," said ESAI's Emerson.

"India may be able to one day, but only if the oil companies bear the brunt of the cost. Frankly, Southeast Asian nations will talk about regional reserves but they just cannot afford it."

Following are measures announced in January by Asian governments:

• China said on January 29 it would start to build this year a reserve of 150 million barrels of crude.

• The Philippines said on January 29 refiners must hold a minimum 30-day inventory of crude and oil products by February 3. Bulk oil suppliers must hold a minimum 15-day inventory and all players were required to have a minimum seven days of supply of liquefied petroleum gas.

• South Korea said on January 28 it may partially release oil stocks if Middle East benchmark Dubai crude hits $33 a barrel. It said it would cut import tariffs and local taxes on oil products and limit some business energy use if Dubai crude went into the range $29-$33. If Dubai topped $35, it said it would release more reserve oil, deepen tax cuts, set a ceiling price for local oil products and use funds set aside to subsidise refiners' oil imports and cut oil products exports.

• Thailand said on January 28 it had drawn up a contingency plan in the event of war including a stop to oil products exports and special crude imports from Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. Bangkok has kept strategic oil stocks of 50 days of consumption since the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

• India said on January 7 that state refiners had raised oil products inventories to meet demand for 35-40 days and had enough crude to keep refineries running for one month.

• Bangladesh said on January 7 it had 340,000 tonnes of oil products and 175,000 tonnes of crude in stock to meet demand for 20-25 days. It also said it was seeking emergency oil imports from Malaysia, Thailand and Brunei.

abcnews.go.com Venezuela's Capital of Caracas, Once Trendy and High-Flying, Faces Tough Times The Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela Jan. 29 — Every night at 8 p.m. the clang of banging pots and pans rattles across the Venezuelan capital. It's the cacerolazo, a traditional Latin American protest against unpopular governments and toughening times.

In recent months, the din has spread from middle class districts into less prosperous neighborhoods as residents protest President Hugo Chavez's rule and their rapidly declining standard of living.

Chavez's backers answer with fireworks.

Then Caracas goes quiet.

After dark, this once-trendy, high-flying capital, an expensive vacation destination that bubbled with nightlife, is an empty shell.

Dark streets. Dark shops. Dark buildings.

Crime is up, and visitors are urged to stay indoors come nightfall. If confronted, hand over your valuables, one hotel brochure advises: "They can be replaced. You can't."

Caracas is now listed as one of the more dangerous cities in the hemisphere but it offers constant reminders of better days.

It bristles with modern high-rises, condominiums and buildings designed by world-renowned architects.

The sprawling Central University of Venezuela is a United Nations World Heritage Site with cantilevered walkways, mosaics and a sculpture garden featuring works by American mobile artist Alexander Calder. The Country Club residential area was designed by Frederick Olmstead, creator of New York City's Central Park.

A spotless air-conditioned subway rushes passengers quickly and cheaply through the city. An urban highway system is a monument to better days, when the oil and money flowed.

In the heyday 1970s, many wealthier Caracenos, as capital residents are called, regularly jetted to Miami to shop. Caracas was bright lights and good times. Many of the world's most exclusive shops opened branches here.

That all dwindled when the oil boom ended in the 1980s. As it became clearer that Venezuela's oil riches weren't trickling down to the majority of the people, a rebellion against the system emerged, culminating in Chavez's presidential election in 1998.

His opponents say that since then, Chavez's leftist policies have damaged business and scared off badly needed foreign investment. They have launched a two-month-long general strike aimed at ousting him from office.

The strike has crippled the oil industry and led to growing shortages.

In a country awash with oil, residents wait in lines stretching a mile or more for gasoline. Some wait overnight. Others buy gas on the black market at 10 times the official price. Banks are open only three hours a day. Fully half of the city's downtown shops are shuttered in sympathy with the strike, or because no one is buying.

"No flour today," reads a sign on a supermarket window. Soft drinks, bottled water, beer, cigarettes and prescription medicines are mostly memories.

Even baseball, in a country where it is more popular than soccer, was hit. Venezuela won't be at the 2003 Caribbean Series in Puerto Rico because it canceled its winter league season out of security concerns.

A lot of the city's business these days is done with buhoneros, tabletop entrepreneurs who sell everything from garlic to pirated CDs.

Venezuela imports more than half of its food, and with the strike it is looking abroad for even more basics.

When 500 tons of flour arrived recently from neighboring Colombia, the Chavez government, ever mindful of its power base, limited its distribution to poorer neighborhoods.

And there are plenty of poorer neighborhoods. Shantytowns jam the hillsides and ravines around the capital. Some hovels are built atop others because there is no space. More than half of Venezuelans live in poverty. Many of these residents are Chavez's people, who say he is the only Venezuelan president who ever cared about them.

Nervous residents in more comfortable neighborhoods have been forming private militias against the hordes they fear may come if the crisis explodes.

There are rumors of a currency devaluation. Rumors that Chavez will pull the plug on the city's unfriendly television stations, which is most of them. Rumors of a government bank takeover. Rumors of more political violence, or a U.S.-backed coup.

In today's Caracas, nobody knows what tomorrow will be like.

The uncertainty and anger is spelled out in the city's graffiti, where Chavez supporters appear to own the walls.

Aside from a rare "Chavez: Criminal," today's fare tends toward "Out with the coup-mongering oligarchs," "Bankers are corrupt coup-mongers," and "No to fascist sabotage."

And, occasionally, "Yankee Go Home."

sf.indymedia.org Venezuelan president stands tall for the poor by By Saeed Shabazz • Wednesday January 29, 2003 at 07:38 AM letters@finalcall.com

At the press conference, Pres. Chavez refuted allegations that he was a dictator. He said he could provide many examples of how his government had contributed to the democratic process, and how he had supported the political and human rights of Venezuelans.

World News Venezuelan president stands tall for people of color By Saeed Shabazz Staff Writer Jan 27, 2003, 6:25 pm

NEW YORK—There will be no civil war in Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez Frias declared during a recent press conference at UN headquarters.

"What my government confronts now is a subversive movement that uses terrorism to impose its will against the national constitution," he said.

Pres. Chavez was at the UN to hand over the chairmanship of the Group of 77 plus China to Morocco. Last year Pres. Chavez became the first head of state to personally travel to New York to take over the chairmanship. The Group of 77 is a confederation of developing nations that often vote in the UN as a bloc.

At the press conference, Pres. Chavez refuted allegations that he was a dictator. He said he could provide many examples of how his government had contributed to the democratic process, and how he had supported the political and human rights of Venezuelans. While the president was holding his press conference, several dozen demonstrators gathered across from the UN building shouting slogans, banging on pots and demanding his resignation.

Mr. Chavez’s detractors see him as a dictator and a would-be communist. They point to his relationship with Cuban President Fidel Castro, and they talk about his visits to places such a Libya and Iraq.

Mr. Chavez was elected democratically in 1998 and 2000, with over 56 percent of the vote. However, opponents say there must be a referendum in Venezuela by Feb. 2. Asked by reporters if he could accept the referendum proposal, he said it would be " very nearly impossible" to hold such a referendum so soon.

"Replacing a president is not like taking a baseball pitcher out of a game or changing one’s shirt," Mr. Chavez told reporters.

Taking a small copy of Venezuela’s constitution out of his pocket, Mr. Chavez said a referendum could only be held in August 2003, as his presidency enters its mid-term.

In April 2002, opponents of Mr. Chavez—with U.S. support—staged a coup that lasted for two days. Mr. Chavez told reporters that following the coup his government resumed a "democratic life and followed a constitutional path."

"The people put Hugo Chavez back into power after the coup," observed Elombe Brath of the Harlem-based Patrice Lumumba Coalition, adding that Mr. Chavez represents a large segment of Venezuelans who are Black.

"The same type of movement of Black Panamanians that elected Manuel Noriega in Panama was used to elect Mr. Chavez in Venezuela," Mr. Brath stressed.

Acting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Curtis Stuble told Reuters Jan. 16 that the United States had no position on elections in Venezuela, but that a "deal" needed to be forged quickly.

"An urgent agreement on elections in Venezuela may be the only way to defuse the crisis there," Mr. Stuble said.

Mark Weisbrot, co-director for the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, characterized Mr. Chavez’s supporters in a Jan. 12 article in the Washington Post.

"The pro-government marchers are from Venezuela’s poor and working class communities. They are noticeably darker descendents of the country’s indigenous peoples and African slaves," Mr. Wiesbrot wrote.

"[The marchers] were seen carrying pocket-size copies of the 1999 Venezuelan constitution. Women’s groups were there because of anti-discrimination articles in the constitution; Indigenous leaders because this is the first constitution to recognize their people’s rights," he wrote.

Mr. Wiesbrot concluded that the marchers saw themselves as "defending constitutional democracy and civil liberties" against the "threat of fascism," which they believe is the political platform of the opposition–the people that sponsored the April coup.

According to Amy Chua, a Yale professor of law and author of "World on Fire: How Free Market Democracies Breed Ethnic Hatred & Global Instability," says that Mr. Chavez, along with 80 percent of Venezuela’s population, is referred to as "pardo," a term that has class and ethnic overtones that refer loosely to brown-skinned people of Amerindian or African ancestry.

She said Venezuela’s economy is controlled by a minority of "cosmopolitan Whites" or "martuanos," the Venezuelan term for persons with European features. Observers say Mr. Chavez promised to "cleanse" his nation of corrupted and co-opted elites who have gained political power.

His supporters say he pledged to resist globalization while keeping foreign investments on Venezuela’s terms.

"What Chavez represents is an ideology that is neither left nor right but firmly rooted in the concept of national sovereignty, a democratic nationalism, that has arisen largely in reaction to United States economic and military domination of the region," writes Justin Raimondo in a January 2001 article called "Behind the Headlines."

"Chavez is no commie," Mr. Raimondo insists. "He is a military man who resists Pres. George Bush’s attempts to down grade his nation’s army into a narcotics squad; and he has refused to allow the U.S. to conduct their phony war on drugs on Venezuelan territory. He has established a military zone on the border with Columbia precisely because of that nation’s inability to control drug trafficking and guerilla incursions into Venezuela," Mr. Raimondo stressed.

Mr. Raimondo believes the greatest concern of the Western powers is Mr. Chavez’s call for a "configuration" of Latin American states for the new century. Hugo Chavez ’s vision of a rail artery that would join the Caribbean basin through railways and link them with the great rivers, which Mr. Chavez calls the "arteries of continent," is what really scares the U.S. State Department, Mr. Raimondo said.

"Hugo Chavez is a Black man who has angered the oil barons of the world such as Vice Pres. Dick Cheney and, of course, Pres. Bush," Viola Plummer of the December 12th Movement said. The organization had representatives at the UN to greet Pres. Chavez.

"He is carrying out the vision of the Latin American liberator Simon Bolivar, who also dreamed of a united Latin America," Ms. Plummer said. "To the U.S. State Department that is a crime, but for the people in places such as Venezuela, that may be an ambition worth fighting for," she added.

"We need to see that what is happening to Chavez and what is taking place with Pres. Robert Mugabe are part of an American hegemony," insists Mr. Brath. "America sees the danger of both leaders developing a society that uplifts their people. Both men have a vision that gives their people a chance to get out of slavery and servitude, and develop their resources to help advance their families," Mr. Brath added.

There has been an oil workers strike in Venezuela since Dec. 2, 2002, which has paralyzed the economy. Observers say the strike is the work of business interests opposed to Pres. Chavez’s threats of nationalization of some businesses and his attempts to seize control of the oil sector.

Venezuela is the world’s fifth largest oil producer. The United States gets 13 percent of its oil from Venezuela.

© Copyright 2003 FCN Publishing, FinalCall.com www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/article_417.shtml

www.berkshireeagle.com62671143303,00.html Article Last Updated: Wednesday, January 29, 2003 - 5:16:07 AM MST

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is an unusual kind of socialist. He offers all of the usual anti-capitalist boiler plate but is currently in the process of breaking a strike, which is usually the province of the cruel industrialists that socialists detest. Like Fidel Castro, he wants to foment revolution throughout the Western hemisphere, and unlike Mr. Castro he has the economic muscle to cause trouble outside his borders. He should concern Washington and the international community more than he has.

Yesterday, striking leaders of the nationalized oil industry acknowledge that daily production had exceeded 1 million barrels for the first time in nearly two months, indicating that Mr. Chavez was beating back the strike. The strike was called 57 days ago to pressure the president to call a referendum on his increasingly unpopular totalitarian regime, but strike-induced fuel and food shortages are now working against the president's opponents and playing into the hands of Mr. Chavez. The Chavez government is also using the strike to downsize the state-run company and remove dissenters, actions usually associated with right-leaning industrialists.

Poverty and the injustice of a right-wing regime paved the way for the election of Mr. Chavez in 1998 and now the nation appears to be stuck with him -- he doesn't face re-election until 2007. Sunday, Mr. Chavez called upon the nation's leftist ideologues to battle capitalism, an open invitation to internal strife that will disguise the reality that Mr. Chavez's socialist policies, the kind which have failed around the globe, are primarily to blame for his country's ongoing misery. Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest exporter of oil, and if the country dissolves into chaos while war erupts in Iraq the world economy could suffer a brutal jolt.

There has been a tendency among Washington and its Western allies over the decades to lump all leftist leaders together, but this weekend there came a reminder that it is shortsighted to do so. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leftist whose anti-poverty programs do not include deriding capitalism, appeared be-fore the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and urged the world's politicians and business leaders gathered there to invest in an international anti-poverty fund and promote trade in underdeveloped countries. The Brazilian president pointed out that eliminating hunger takes a weapon away from political demagogues, and promoting trade helps provide the economic stability that prevents political turmoil.

This is good advice. An economic program built along these lines could have prevented the rise of President Chavez, whose rule may prove far more costly to the world economy than the modest amount of capital needed to perhaps prevent Venezuela from becoming susceptible to his simplistic messages. The World Economic Forum should adopt the ideas offered by President da Silva to enable more men like him, and fewer like President Chavez, to come to power.

english.pravda.ru 10:00 2003-01-29

Colombia's Northeastern State of Arauca is the main focus of rebel activity

Despite Government's efforts to resume control in Arauca, the area has been the scenario of successful incursions of Colombia's main rebel groups. Last week, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC, killed six soldiers and a civilian with a car bomb and the National Liberation Army, ELN, were held responsible for the kidnapping of two foreign journalists.

Notwithstanding, Colombia's Interior Minister, Fernando Londono, insists that the Government was still in control of the region. There, over 70 US Special Forces Officials are training the Colombian Army to protect oil wells and pipelines from rebel attacks. Cano Limon oil wells and pipelines have been blown up over 700 times.

Besides the oil production, the Department of Arauca is very important due to the cultivation of coca crops - some 8.000 hectares, according to official estimations - and because of its long frontier with Venezuela. All the mayors of the Department are under threat by the rebel groups and many have been killed, recently.

Therefore, the Government has increased military presence in the area, but with little success as attacks go further. The ELN and the FARC have a strong presence, but their superiority has been reduced since 2001, when paramilitary squads started challenging them.

The 10th and 45th Fronts of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Domingo LaÑ~n Front and ABC Column of the National Liberation Army (ELN), and counter-insurgent paramilitary groups, namely the Victors of Arauca Column and a supposed Capital Column in the municipality of Arauca. Since 22 September 2002, three of the region's municipalities (Arauca, Arauquita and Saravena) form part of a rehabilitation and consolidation zone decreed by the government, where the military presence has been increased.

The Human Rights group "Reporters without Borders" conducted a research in the area and concluded that local authorities systematically violate press freedom. According to the investigation, currently exist journalist on black list and even their lives are not guaranteed. "Paramilitaries killed circulated several statements, in which they declared journalists and the news media in general to be a military target", reads the report.

However, there are not only threats. Efrain Varela, a local journalist and Human Rights activist, was shot in Arauca, presumably by paramilitaries. Last week, rebel forces kidnaped two journalists from Los Angeles Times and no further information has been provided about their fate.

The 40 years Colombia's civil war has turned what used to be rich area into a battlefield. The 350 thousand inhabitants of Arauca are at risk as they live in o man's land.

Hernan Etchaleco PRAVDA.RU Argentina