http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/002/173uwdnt.asp

THE DAILY STANDARD welcomes letters to the editor. Letters will be edited for length and clarity and must include the writer's name, city, and state.

3

I am glad someone in the media can really describe the horror we are living in Venezuela right now (Thor L. Halvorssen, Horror in Venezuela).

I never thought that I would be preparing--along with my family and neighbors--for invasions at our houses. Now I know that in my house there are guns, where they are and how to use them.

I had to send my only son to the United States (since he a US citizen) and I wasn't able to tell him when he is coming back, or when I will be able to see him again.

But I am fine--I am much better than the thousands of Venezuelan that don't have a job and that have no income to support their families. And that is why the worst is yet to come. The sad part is that we are prepared for it.

Who's to blame? I am not sure. I think the strike is very hurtful for the whole country, but without it, international entities would have not paid any attention to us.

Please keep writing and informing the world what is really happening in Venezuela.

--Maria Alejandra Azar

4

Someone should inform Moby that there is a difference between peace-loving, and peace-making (David Skinner, Stardumb: Moby). Peace-making sometimes requires a confrontational approach when the person who is being approached is recalcitrant and uncooperative.

--Jason Hamby

5

Stephen F. Hayes makes two points in The Peacemongers: (1) some peace activists are stupid; (2) their actions help prop up the Iraqi regime, which oppresses the Iraqi people.

Even if we accept that both points are true, neither is a justification for invading Iraq. Hayes's article seems to imply that improving the lives of Iraqis would be a reason to go to war. This is naive.

There is an infinite amount of suffering in the world. The billions of dollars the U.S. would spend on an Iraq war could better the lives of millions of people in the third world without costing a single human life.

Of course, donating money to fight poverty would not topple a dictatorship and end repression. But there are repressive governments throughout the world and the United States is not trying to topple them all. The United States is not going to war to end the repression of the Iraqi people. The Bush administration describes Iraq first and foremost as a security threat, not a humanitarian project. A more cynical observer would say the war is about oil.

Yes, it's possible that war might improve the lives of Iraqis. It's also likely that thousands of Iraqi civilians would be killed in a war and it's possible that the post-Iraq government would be repressive, too. It will be hard to explain to orphans and widows how killing their husbands and fathers served the purpose of freeing them from political oppression.

--Daniel Connolly

www.petroleumnewsalaska.com Alaska's Source for Oil and Gas News January 2003

Vol. 8, No. 4 Week of January 26, 2003

Gary Park PNA Canadian Correspondent

American Petroleum Institute reports 5% increase in Alaska production vs. 0.7% for all of U.S.; well completions down 25% for fourth quarter to 6,680

A laska led the way in boosting United States’ crude output in 2002 — the first full-year rise in domestic production since 1991, the American Petroleum Institute said Jan. 15 in its Monthly Statistical Report.

A 5 percent rise in Alaska volumes, also the state’s first 12-month gain since 1991, contributed to an 0.7 percent increase in U.S. output to 5.842 million barrels per day, the API said.

But a cloud was building on the supply horizon, with total well completions for the United States down 25 percent to 6,680 wells for the final quarter of 2002, despite robust oil and natural gas prices.

For December, U.S. crude production was 5.865 million barrels per day, off 0.4 percent from a year earlier. Lower 48 production slipped 1.1 percent to 4.79 million barrels per day, but Alaska production for the month climbed 2.8 percent to 1.075 million barrels per day.

Crude imports for 2002 were down sharply by 3 percent to 9.043 million barrels per day and product imports dropped 9.6 percent to 2.298 million barrels per day. However, the year ended with imported crude rising by 0.3 percent to 8.849 million barrels per day, while products jumped 12.5 percent to 2.423 million barrels per day.

“U.S. petroleum imports, following several years of rapid growth, fell sharply in 2002,” the API said. “Overall imports lagged the record level reached in 2001 by 4.5 percent.

“The share of U.S. demand supplied by imports shrank to 57.6 percent, the lowest since 1999.” Imports in 2001 accounted for 60 percent of U.S. demand.

Domestic petroleum inventories declined by 100 million barrels in 2002, the biggest annual decline since 150 million barrels in 1999, with crude and product inventories exiting 2002 at 934.3 million barrels, off 3.6 percent for the month and 9.8 percent for the year.

Crude inventories accounted for the largest share of the decline by falling 36 million barrels.

Canada leading supplier in October In its latest breakdown of U.S. imports, the API noted that for October 2002 petroleum from the Persian Gulf represented 18.2 percent of the total, compared with 25.5 percent a year earlier.

The leading supplier countries for the month were Canada at 2.073 million barrels per day, or a 17.7 percent share of imports and 10.6 percent of domestic product supplied.

The other sources over 1 million barrels per day were Saudi Arabia 1.69 million, Venezuela 1.616 million and Mexico 1.577 million.

API said 2002 was highlighted by “dramatically lower demand for most petroleum products as a result of the aftermath of 9/11, an unusually warm winter, price volatility, OPEC supply fluctuations and a slow national economy.”

John Felmy, director of policy analysis and statistics, said 2003 “promises to be another challenging year,” although U.S. consumers should be assured that the industry will “make every effort to see that consumer fuel needs will continue to be met.”

Even if there is a temporary disruption caused by internal tensions in Venezuela and possible war in Iraq, Felmy said there are other “significant sources of oil,” noting that U.S. petroleum companies have increased worldwide and domestic sources of crude with available new technologies.

Prices soar Because of geopolitical events, West Texas Intermediate crude soared 80 percent above its low point at the start of 2002 to end the year at $33 per barrel. Natural gas prices also rose 80 percent, with marketed domestic production averaging 54.2 billion cubic feet per day in September, the latest month for which figures were available.

In its fourth-quarter 2002 drilling statistics, API estimated completions of U.S. oil and natural gas wells and dry holes dropped by 25 percent from the same quarter of 2001.

For the three months, oil wells were down by 26 percent to 1,566, gas wells dropped 28 percent to 4,143 and dry holes declined by 5 percent to 971, for total estimated completions of 6,680 compared with 8,889 a year earlier.

Total exploratory completions were off 38 percent for the fourth quarter and development completions were down 24 percent, while total footage drilled showed a 24 percent decrease to 35.2 million feet.

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asia.cnn.com Monday, January 27, 2003 Posted: 9:08 AM HKT (0108 GMT)

Japan's trade surplus in December was smaller than expected

TOKYO, Japan (Reuters) -- Japan's trade surplus showed an unexpectedly small rise in December, as higher oil prices pushed up the value of imports and as exports showed signs of weakness in what could be a worrying sign for the struggling economy.

The Ministry of Finance said on Monday that the customs-cleared surplus rose 19.9 percent from a year earlier to 791 billion yen ($6.71 billion).

But exports fell 7.3 percent from the previous month and the surplus was lower than a median forecast for a rise of about 40 percent to 920 billion yen by economists polled by Reuters last week.

Economists said rising oil prices due to a looming conflict in Iraq and a crippling strike in Venezuela were partly to blame for the smaller-than-expected surplus, but added that exports -- one of Japan's few economic bright spots -- were also a concern.

"The trade gap was narrower than our forecasts due to a steep rise in imports, mainly because of the rise in oil prices," said Takeshi Minami, senior economist at UFJ Tsubasa Securities.

"The outlook for the domestic economy remains bearish, as today's figures give clear evidence that exports are falling."

Imports up 14% for year

Imports rose 1.2 percent from a month earlier, and were up 14.1 percent at 3.769 trillion yen from a year earlier.

Exports rose for the ninth straight month on a year-on-year basis, gaining 15.1 percent to 4.560 trillion yen.

A rebound in exports helped drag Japan out of its worst post-war recession early last year and had appeared to be holding up, despite a pause around the third quarter of 2002.

But the overall economy, beset by persistent deflation, a mountain of corporate bad loans and puny domestic demand, has failed to maintain its momentum.

"Looking at the export volumes...they're still pretty strong. Total export volumes were up 13.5 percent on the year, and exports to Asia were also very strong," said Matthew Poggi, an economist at Lehman Brothers.

"So while our forecast calls for somewhat slower external demand, it doesn't look like it's showing up in the trade numbers just yet. But certainly it's a concern going forward," he added.

For the whole of calendar 2002, the trade surplus rose 51.3 percent from the previous year to 9.930 trillion yen, with exports up 6.4 percent and imports down 0.6 percent.

Output data due soon

Industrial production figures out later this week are expected to show that output shrank in the October-December period for the first time in four quarters, boding ill for GDP figures for the period due out on February 14.

Some economists say Japan may be heading into its fourth recession in a decade, although the consensus view is for a period of meager growth for at least the first half of this year.

A major risk to that scenario is the looming U.S.-led war in Iraq.

By raising the price of the imported oil Japan depends upon, a conflict in the Gulf could damage growth prospects and expectations of a war have already weakened the dollar against the yen, making Japanese exports less competitive.

Separate data from the Finance Ministry showed that the value of Japan's customs-cleared imports of crude oil totalled a preliminary 492.858 billion yen ($4.18 billion) in December, up 51.3 percent from a year earlier.

The yen was at 117.82/85 to the dollar on Monday morning, having climbed from around 125 in early December, bringing frequent threats of intervention from Japanese Finance Ministry officials.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.26.03, 8:01 PM ET

PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Sunday said rich countries must do more to lower trade barriers and ease developing countries' debts or the simmering discontent over the wealth disparity could eventually boil over.

"If we do not manage to do it in peace... tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, that explosive charge will explode." he told a news conference. "Without a doubt, the international trade system is terribly unfair."

The colorful leader, who is facing an 8-week-long strike at home as opponents try to force him to resign and make way for early elections, said Latin Americans could also build institutions of their own to help dig themselves out of debt.

"No, it is not the market that is going to solve the world's problems, it's politics...it requires political will," he told a news conference at the World Social Forum.

"We have proposed for example that a Latin American Monetary Fund be created, and each of us put in what he can," he said, adding such a fund might include the barter of goods.

While he spoke, hundreds of rowdy flag-waving supporters were gathered outside the building. Some were pushed back by police after they tried to barge their way in, but there were no injuries. The WSF, which is in its third year, grew out a desire to counter the meeting of the world financial and business elite at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Earlier, Brazil's recently-elected left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ,took the social message he delivered at the WSF to Davos and urged rich countries to declare "war on hunger" and create a global fund to fight poverty.

The Brazilian event has seen intellectuals, unionists, and grass-root social groups rail against trade barriers of richer nations like the United States, particularly on agricultural products, which they say do not let poorer countries develop.

"That is why we have to reform the world order... that is why this (world) social forum is important," Chavez said.

Chavez also echoed comments by many at the conference in this southern Brazilian city who argued that multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank impose impossible conditions on their assistance.

Venezuela had paid some $20 billion of its debts in the last four years and still owed $26 billion, he said.

He also suggested Latin American state oil companies such as Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras) <PET4.SA> (nyse: PBR - news - people) and Venezuela's Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) band together and create a South American OPEC.

www.voanews.com VOA News 27 Jan 2003, 02:25 UTC

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says he will impose currency controls as nervous Venezuelans scramble for U.S. dollars.

Over the last eight weeks, the value of the Venezuelan bolivar has plunged by 30 percent. The sharp drop has coincided with a long-running opposition general strike aimed at driving President Chavez from power.

Mr. Chavez did not say on Sunday when the currency controls would take effect. But a government suspension of currency trading ends Wednesday.

Also Sunday, President Chavez announced unspecified price controls he said will protect the poor from inflation. And Mr. Chavez said he is considering a tax on foreign currency trading. The opposition says government policies are ruining the Venezuelan economy.

The strike has disrupted oil production and caused a severe shortage of many goods. Economists say nearly two-billion dollars in capital has been sent out of the country since the strike started.

Mr. Chavez said at an economic conference in Brazil Sunday that despite the strike, Venezuelan oil production now exceeds one million barrels a day and is growing.

Mr. Chavez and strike leaders have given a positive response to plan by former U.S. president Jimmy Carter to end Venezuela's political crisis. The Carter plan would amend the Venezuelan constitution and shorten the president's term in office, leading to early elections.