www.orlandosentinel.com

WASHINGTON -- Venezuela's foreign minister said Saturday that his government welcomes preliminary suggestions made by diplomats from the United States and five other countries to end the political unrest in his country.

"We are convinced that we will reach a solution in a democratic way," Roy Chaderton said in an interview.

Chaderton came to Washington to participate in the meeting Friday of the newly formed "Group of Friends," which also includes officials from Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal. Also participating was Cesar Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States, which hosted the meeting.

The diplomats called on the government of President Hugo Chavez and the opposition to tone down their inflammatory rhetoric and end political violence. The countries will send delegations to Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, on Thursday to continue talks to break the political impasse.

"A concern for the risk of violence in Venezuela is valid," Chaderton said. He also said his government would cooperate with the meeting.

A general strike called by the opposition has lasted more than two months, hurting oil production in the world's fifth-largest exporter. The opposition sees the leftist Chavez as authoritarian and hostile to business. Chavez's backers say he has strong support among the country's poor and see the opposition as undemocratic, noting a failed coup attempt in April.

In Caracas on Saturday, tens of thousands of opponents of Chavez gathered on a highway, preparing to stay there overnight to protest a Supreme Court decision suspending a referendum on Chavez's rule.

Protesters covered 2.5 miles of asphalt, chanting "Until he goes!" and waving red, blue and yellow Venezuelan flags. Many brought tents and air mattresses; others carried foldout chairs, portable TVs and radios.

Caracas fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno said at least 100,000 people were present.

The loosely grouped opposition is trying to recover from the blow of a Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday that indefinitely postponed a Feb. 2 referendum that would have asked Venezuelans whether Chavez should resign.

The president's opponents had gathered 2 million signatures to petition for the vote. They backed up their demand by launching a devastating strike Dec. 2 and staging daily street protests.

More than 2,000 soldiers, police and firefighters were on guard. Back in Washington, Chaderton did not respond directly when asked if Chavez feared the protests would force him from office. "We have very good reasons to be optimistic that this will have a democratic outcome, because we are a democracy," he said.

Diplomats are discussing proposals made by former U.S. President Carter to either hold a binding recall referendum or amend the constitution to allow early presidential elections.

Nearly eight weeks into the grueling shutdown, Chavez and his foes appear set on standing their ground even as the strike drives Venezuela's fragile economy deeper into recession. Oil exports account for half of the government's revenues.

The Finance Ministry and the Central Bank on Wednesday shut down foreign-currency exchange markets to stave off capital flight and halt the deep slide in the local bolivar currency as investors seek the safety of the U.S. dollar.

Fighting back against the strikers, Chavez has ordered troops and replacement workers to take over oil installations. Crude production and exports have crept back up, but the industry is still operating far below its usually levels of about 3.1 million barrels per day.

Commercial centers and many large firms remain closed. Support for the strike has frayed, however, as some businesses reopened as the shutdown takes a toll on the private sector.

www.gopbi.com Sunday, January 26 By Susan Ferriss, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer Sunday, January 26, 2003

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Concertina wire spirals across the lawn of the Terraza del Avila apartment complex.

At the gate, neighborhood watch leader Luis Eduardo Manresa clutches a walkie-talkie as part of an emergency plan to deal with mob attacks or looting.

If dialogue or high-pressure water hoses don't work, Manresa says, the complex's residents, mostly professionals, will use whatever they might have, including guns, to defend themselves.

Manresa, a professor of international law, directs an organization called the Latin American Center for Dialogue Between Civilizations and Cultures.

Manresa isn't the only one terrified that Venezuelan society, polarized and volatile in the midst of a political crisis, could explode into chaos if the stalemate is not soon broken.

"Jesus Christ can come here to talk, but if there's no will to really dialogue, then what?" he said with a shrug.

For more than eight weeks, President Hugo Chavez has defied an opposition that declared a "citizens' strike" on Dec. 2 in an effort to oust the bombastic president or force him to agree to an early election the opposition is certain he would lose.

The crisis has already caused so much damage to the national oil industry -- Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest producer -- that it could take years to recover. The world economy, too, is feeling the effects in the form of higher oil prices.

In a country where most complain they have been excluded from the benefits of the oil economy, class divisions have never seemed so sharp.

A sizable number of Venezuelans defend Chavez as an avenging angel who was democratically elected in 1998 by a populace disgusted with the traditional politicians' broken promises.

"From our point of view, the president has given in too much" to the opposition, said Jose Pereira, a policeman and Chavez supporter. "We've waited 40 years to participate in a real democracy."

But to the opposition, Chavez has become an authoritarian and a megalomaniac who violates of the constitution he constantly invokes.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell on Friday urged acceptance of a proposal by former President Jimmy Carter, who suggested two possible scenarios for an early election.

Carter met with Chavez and his opponents early last week and urged them to consider his proposals.

One calls for lifting the strike in exchange for a pledge to let the opposition pursue a constitutional amendment to shorten Chavez's term to four years, something that would trigger a general election.

The other proposal calls for a binding referendum on Chavez in August, midway through his term, a date Chavez himself has argued would be feasible.

On Wednesday, the day after Carter left, Venezuela's Supreme Court sided with a Chavez in his appeal to block a nonbinding referendum on his presidency set for Feb. 2.

And on Thursday, when Chavez's supporters took to streets here to demonstrate their support, he seemed as defiant as always.

"The Venezuelan people don't want violence," he said, gesturing emotionally. "But it's convenient to remind the coup-plotting, fascist oligarchy attempting to overthrow the Bolivarian government that the Venezuelan people are willing to defend their government."

susanf@coxnews.com

www.gulf-news.com Manama |By Dr. Mohammed Al Asoomi | 26-01-2003

During the last few weeks the world's oil markets were influenced by many factors in play in opposite directions prompting Opec to intervene to curb rising crude prices and keeping them within the agreed range of $22-$28 per barrel.

Oil prices have been soaring since the end of the summer coinciding with the rising tensions caused by the American threats to wage war against Iraq.

However, action by Opec members who raised their production quotas contributed to curbing the price increase until the protests mounted against the elected President of Venezuela, hence reducing the country's oil exports and pushing oil prices to their highest levels in about 20 years.

Every time when oil prices rise or production levels fall, the Opec countries' oil ministers turn into glittering stars whose photographs and statements are carried by the world's newspapers, TV networks and other media.

Last week, the Opec ministers emerged with broad smiles after deciding to increase the Organisation's output by 1.5 million barrels daily to curb the soaring crude prices and to prevent any further rises, with Opec achieving a partial success in this regard.

Once again the saying that "Opec is a tea bag that only works in boiling water" is proved true. This means that Opec does not move except in crisis situations.

It should be noted that Opec usually succeeds in curbing the crude price increases but its intervention becomes less effective in the case of falling oil prices. In such event, it has to make great efforts to restore balance to the world's oil market by attempting to stop breaches and to cut output.

Owing to such moves dictated by the requirements and changes in the world's oil markets, rather than the strategies of oil producing and exporting countries, oil has lost a substantial part of its dominant share of the global balance of energy during the last two decades and such share is continuously being eroded.

I think that the two principal factors that contributed to crude price rise and linked to conditions of Venezuela and Iraq, both are Opec members, will soon cease to have any effect.

The Venezuelan oil production will return to normal during the next few weeks and the Iraqi situation is likely to be resolved during the first quarter of this year, as Iraq has a huge production capacity that will have a remarkable impact upon the supply and demand situation in the world markets.

While Opec's task last week was easy when the Organisation adopted a unanimous decision to make large output increases, its next task that will follow the resolution of the Iraqi issue will be much more difficult and complicated.

Once the Iraqi question is resolved, prices will start to fall. In addition, Iraq will resume production at its full available capacity to get the oil revenues that will enable it to overcome the economic consequences arising from its crisis with the U.S., and to rebuild its devastated economy.

Some of the other Opec members who quickly agreed at the recent meeting to raise oil output will be hesitant before showing any willingness to cut production once more to restore the required balance for the world's oil markets.

This often repeated picture of rises and falls in production and price levels take place from time to time in Opec, hence there is an obvious need for a business strategy that would enable it to avoid the sharp price falls arising from events beyond its control.

Such strategy should ensure for it reasons for success in building more diversified economies that are less dependent upon the exhaustible oil wealth since the modern sectors of information technology, communications and related service are capital intensive industries with such capital readily available to Opec members thanks to their enormous oil revenues.

The writer is a GCC-based economist.      

· UAE calls for dialogue at Davos forum · Young leaders scheme okays 365 projects · DI eyes Parekh project · Russia urges UAE to strengthen aviation ties · Al Fahim in logging joint venture · Sudatel, CBD get listing approval · Performance of Saudi banks good - Moody's · UAE external balance to remain in surplus · Opec needs strategy to avoid sharp price falls · Dodsal wins deals in Egypt, Oman · Arab banks target energy projects · Oman seeks $1b for refinery · Mideast refining, petrochem conference opens today · Sabic profit soars 60pc · Euro, franc dazzle as dollar weighed down by Iraq  

sf.indymedia.org by gg? / copytrastortranslation • Sunday January 26, 2003 at 02:37 AM

Another president to world-wide the social forum... - - The Ministry of Communication and Information of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela invites to the Press conference that will offer the President of the Bolivariana Republic of Venezuela Hugo Chávez Frias in the occasion of its visit the City of Porto Alegre, Brazil, Day January 26th, 2003, 5:00 p.m. How to be there if you are journalist -- uruguay.indymedia.org

Another president to world-wide the social forum...

The Ministry of Communication and Information of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela invites to the Press conference that will offer the President of the Bolivariana Republic of Venezuela Hugo Chávez Frias in the occasion of its visit the City of Porto Alegre, Brazil, Day January 26th, 2003, 5:00 p.m., in the Plenary room Joao Neves da Fontoura, (Planarinho) of the Legislative Assembly of this city, Located in Matrix's square.

Thanks to journalists who will cover this press conference, please confirm their attendance to electronic mail fperezs@telcel.net.ve or to telephones of Francisco Perez (051) 81157918 or to the 98060306 of Stella Valenzuela, before the 12:30 at noon of the January 26th 2003, if not will not be able to enter the room.

In order to guarantee a greater organization and due to the tight schedule that will fulfill President of venezuelan republic, questions will be by type of mass media, therefore the Agencies of the News, the Television, the Radio, the Written Press Local and the National, and the Alternative and Communitarian means will have to select two representatives to formulate their questions.

The Entrance of the Representatives from media to room will be between 3 p.m. and 4:50 p.m.

ORIGINAL SPANISH VERSION FROM URUGUAY INDYMEDIA

uruguay.indymedia.org

República Bolivariana de Venezuela y Hugo Chávez by gg • Saturday January 25, 2003 at 01:48 PM

Otro presidente al foro social mundial...

El Ministerio de Comunicación e Información de la República Bolivariana de enezuela invita a la Rueda de Prensa que ofrecerá el Señor Presidente de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela Hugo Chávez Frias con motivo de su visita la Ciudad de Porto Alegre, Brasil, el Día 26 de Enero de 2003, a las 5:00 pm en la sala Plenaria Joao Neves da Fontoura, (Planarinho) de la Asamblea Legislativa de esta ciudad, Ubicada en la Plaza da Matriz.

Se agradece a los periodistas que cubrirán esta rueda de prensa confirmar su asistencia al correo electrónico fperezs@telcel.net.ve o a los teléfonos de Francisco Pérez (051) 81157918 o al 98060306 de Stella Valenzuela, antes de las 12:30 de la tarde del 26 de enero de 2003, caso contrario no podrán ingresar a la sala.

Para garantizar una mayor organización y debido a la apretada agenda que cumplirá el Señor Presidente de la república se realizarán preguntas por tipo de medio de comunicación, así las Agencias de Noticias, la Televisión, la Radio, la Prensa Escrita Local y la Nacional, y los medios Alternativos y Comunitarios deberán seleccionar a dos representantes para formular sus preguntas.

El Ingreso de los Representantes de los medios a la sala será entre as 3 pm y las 4:50 pm

uruguay.indymedia.org/news/2003/01/9253.php

www.taipeitimes.com BLOOMBERG Sunday, Jan 26, 2003,Page 10

Crude oil rose for the first time in three days after White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said it was "unacceptable" for Iraq to bar scientists from talking with UN weapons inspectors.

Concern that the US will soon invade Iraq comes as a strike in Venezuela has caused that nation's exports to plummet. Iraq and Venezuela in November pumped about 7 percent of the world's oil.

Crude oil for March delivery rose US$1.03, or 3.2 percent, to US$33.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one-day gain since Jan. 9. Prices were up 1 percent this week and 69 percent from a year ago.

In London, the March Brent crude-oil futures contract rose US$0.77, or 2.6 percent, to US$30.49 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

Hussein may try to blow up Iraq's 1,500 oil wells if the US and its allies invade, a senior defense official said at the Pentagon on condition of anonymity.

"There are a variety of intelligence sources that leave us with the impression or belief that the regime has the capability and intent to cause destruction to the oil fields," the official said.

During the 1991 Gulf War, Hussein ordered the destruction of more than 700 of 1,000 oil wells in Kuwait as his army retreated. It took 18 months and about US$20 billion to repair the damage.

The strike in Venezuela, which began on Dec. 2, is giving union officials, business leaders and former oil executives the chance to pressure President Hugo Chavez to step down or hold elections. Chavez has refused both alternatives.

As of Wednesday, Venezuela's production was about 714,000 barrels a day, striking oil workers said. The government says production is above 1 million barrels a day. Output has plunged from about 3 million barrels before the strike.

Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Mexico normally vie to be the largest supplier to the US In October the four supplied 65 percent of US oil imports, according to the Energy Department.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, pumps about 10 percent of global supply.