www.iht.com NYT Saturday, January 25, 2003   The best hope for a peaceful, democratic outcome to Venezuela's political crisis may now rest in the mediation efforts of Jimmy Carter. During his presidency, Carter was a firm champion of democracy in Latin America, standing up to the military tyrannies that then predominated in the region. Now he has proposed two principled and plausible exits to the long-running conflict over President Hugo Chavez, which has divided Venezuela's people, hobbled its economy and raised the specter of a breakdown in constitutional rule.

Carter, who met separately with Chavez and opposition leaders, offers two possible solutions, both compatible with the country's laws and the right of Venezuelans to choose their own leaders freely. One provides for passage of a constitutional amendment, either by Venezuela's legislature or a popular vote, that would shorten the current six-year presidential term and provide for new elections this year. The other would set up a binding referendum this summer on whether Chavez should resign or stay in office as scheduled until 2006. That isn't exactly what either side wants, but Chavez and at least some opposition leaders have suggested that they might be able to accept one or both of the Carter proposals.

Until this week, Chavez opponents had hoped to drive him from office long before summer. They were counting on the combined pressure of a nonbinding referendum that had been scheduled for Feb. 2 and a national strike, now in its eighth week, that has shut down much of Venezuela's oil industry, depriving the government of badly needed revenues and sending world oil prices soaring.

But the strike has begun to falter, and this week Venezuela's Supreme Court suspended preparations for the February referendum, which Chavez had vowed to ignore anyway. That should strengthen the elements in the opposition willing to accept a reasonable compromise along the lines Carter has suggested.

Over the years, Venezuela has been one of Latin America's most consistent constitutional democracies. Changes in political direction and leadership, including Chavez's own two elections, have been carried out lawfully and through the ballot box. That tradition is too valuable to overturn in the heat of the current crisis. Carter points the way toward an honorably democratic solution.

www.weeklystandard.com by Thor L. Halvorssen 01/23/2003 12:00:00 AM

VENEZUELA IS NOW an abyss where there is no rule of law. A rogue government tortures innocent civilians with impunity while paying lip service to democracy and buying time at the "negotiation" table set up by the Organization of American States. Venezuela's foreign minister, Roy Chaderton, has funded an effective multi-million dollar public relations campaign to smear the opposition as coup-plotters and fascists intent on bringing about violence.

Jesus Soriano has never met Roy Chaderton or Hugo Chavez. Soriano supported President Hugo Chavez's meteoric rise, volunteered during the election campaign, and is now a second-year law student in Caracas. His law-school peers describe the 24-year-old as a cheerful and happy young man.

Soriano, a member of the Chavez party, is part of a national student group called "Ousia," a group that brings together moderates who support the government and opposition members seeking a peaceful resolution to the current crisis.

On December 6, Soriano witnessed the massacre that occurred during a peaceful protest in Altamira, a neighborhood in Caracas where the opposition has a strong presence. The killer was Joao De Gouveia, an outspoken supporter of Chavez who has an unusually close relationship with mayor Freddy Bernal, a Chavez crony. Gouveia randomly began shooting at the crowd. He killed three--including a teenage girl he shot in the head--and injured 28 people. As Gouveia kept shooting, several men raced toward him to stop the killing. Soriano was one of the men who wrestled Gouveia to the ground and prevented further killing. Soriano also protected Gouveia from a potential lynch mob that swarmed around the killer.

Soriano's heroic accomplishments did not cease that day. He became a national figure in Venezuela when he brought a small soccer ball (known in Venezuela as a "futbolito") to a sizable protest march organized against the rule of Lt. Col. Chavez. Soriano and other pro-Chavez partisans made their way towards the march intending to engage the opposition members in dialogue.

That hot afternoon, Soriano kicked the futbolito across the divide at the members of the opposition. They kicked it back. The magical realism of the event is evident in the extraordinary television footage of what occurred next. By the end of the match the anti-Chavez protestors and pro-Chavez partisans were hugging and chanting "Peace! Unity! We are Venezuela! Politicians go away! We are the real Venezuela!" In one particularly moving part of the footage, Soriano and a member of the opposing team trade a baseball hat for a Chavez-party red beret.

In one hour this sharply divided group of strangers accomplished more than the high-level negotiation team that seeks to defuse a potential civil war. Chavez was reportedly furious with the televised soccer match and even angrier that the reconciliation was a product of the efforts of one of his supporters. Soriano was declared an enemy of the revolution.

Last week Soriano organized another soccer match. On Wednesday he visited the Universidad Central de Venezuela, the main university in the capital, to attend a meeting of the student government. Violent clashes erupted as members of the Circulos Bolivarianos, an armed militia sworn to protect the revolution, began throwing rocks and tear gas grenades at the students. The militia identified Soriano and captured him. They then tied his hands and feet, lifted him up, and paraded him through the street like a sacrificial lamb chanting "Judas! Judas!" The entire spectacle was recorded by a cameraman who works for the official government television entity. Soriano was beaten so severely that he was left at the hospital emergency room. At the hospital he was detained by the DISIP, Chavez's secret police, and taken to their headquarters for questioning.

During his interrogation, fingernails in his left hand were torn out. After being further tortured and injected with drugs, the secret police took him into the bowels of the building and placed him in a cell. His cellmate: Joao de Gouveia.

Gouveia has the keys to the cell and comes in and out of the secret police headquarters at will. His only restriction is that he must sleep in the precinct, lest Chavez's police are revealed as allowing a confessed killer to roam free. Soriano's mother (who is also a Chavez supporter) tearfully claimed that Gouveia sodomized Soriano and beat him with such force that Soriano cannot open his eyes.

Soriano was released last Friday afternoon after Roy Chaderton advised Chavez that the case could filter out of Venezuela and could become a "human-interest story" with the potential to derail their PR campaign.

The government denied that Soriano had been mistreated. A thorough medical examination by a civil surgeon reveals that, beyond lacerations, severe bruising, and cracked ribs, Soriano had been repeatedly raped while in custody. His right arm shows that he has been injected. Nails are missing from his left hand. Soriano's internal organs have been crushed to the point that he urinates blood, and he cannot walk without assistance.

Once the medical report was made public, the secret police immediately began saying that Soriano was a member of a "right-wing paramilitary organization." This tactic, engineered by Chaderton, is used frequently to disqualify and discount opponents of the regime. All enemies of the "revolution" are coup plotters and fascists. The government now circulates a photo of Soriano in military fatigues. Carlos Roa, Soriano's attorney, showed me that the picture is a yearbook photo from when he was a schoolboy in military academy.

Although it was obvious that Soriano had been tortured, Iris Varela, a Chavez congressional representative, offered no apologies: "I am glad they did this to him. He deserved it." That such savage treatment is what greets government supporters who seek a peaceful resolution to the current crisis speaks volumes about Chavez's ultimate intentions. Soriano, now recuperating at home, must wonder why he ever supported the Chavez regime.

Thor L. Halvorssen is a human rights and civil liberties activist who grew up in Venezuela. He now lives in Philadelphia.

news.bbc.co.uk, 24 January, 2003, 23:46 GMT

Chavez put up a show of force before the Washington talks

Officials from the six-nation Group of Friends are meeting for the first time in Washington to try to end Venezuela's political crisis, crippling the country's oil production.

Chavez has refused to step down

Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, is in the eighth week of a national strike, with the opposition pressing for President Hugo Chavez to resign or call early elections.

The group - Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States - will consider two compromise plans presented by former US President Jimmy Carter.

Correspondents say the meeting reflects the growing international concern to find a way out of the Venezuelan crisis, but there is little immediate sign of a solution.

The talks come after a day of violence in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, where one person was killed and at least 12 were wounded when a suspected bomb went off at a huge pro-government rally.

At least six people have been killed in clashes between Mr Chavez's supporters and opponents since the strike began last December.

Crisis meeting

The Group of Friends was formed to boost a so far unsuccessful mediation mission by the Organisation of American States (OAS).

The strike has crippled on oil and petrol output

The group will consider the plans presented by former Mr Carter to end the strike and hold early elections.

It also wants to send a high-level team to try to negotiate the settlement.

The BBC's Adam Easton in Caracas says that as a strategic supplier of fuel to the US, Venezuela is coming under increasing international pressure to resolve the strike.

In a sign of Washington's interest in a diplomatic solution, US Secretary of State Collin Powell was due to attend the meeting.

But correspondents say there is precious little trust between the Venezuelan Government and opposition.

They say that, at the moment, neither side appears prepared to give in.

Boost for Chavez

Opposition groups accuse Mr Chavez of behaving like a dictator and mismanaging the economy and have called on him to resign.

But Mr Chavez - who opinion polls say is supported by 30% of the population - was handed a victory on Wednesday when the Supreme Court postponed a referendum scheduled for 2 February, six months before a binding popular vote is due.

In a further boost to the president, there have been signs that the government has made some headway in breaking the oil stoppage.

Shipping data showed that oil exports in the seven days to Friday increased 62% to 688,000 barrels per day.

Before the strike, Venezuela exported almost 3m barrels per day.

www.smartmoney.com January 24, 2003

NEW YORK -- Crude-oil and petroleum-products futures rallied Friday on fears that Saddam Hussein might destroy Iraqi oil fields in the event of a U.S.-led attack.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude set for March delivery jumped $1.03 to settle at $33.28 a barrel. February heating oil rose 3.49 cents to 95.02 cents a gallon. February gasoline was up 2.44 cents to 92.25 cents a gallon.

At London's International Petroleum Exchange, March Brent rose 77 cents to close at $30.49 a barrel. February gasoil climbed $6.25 to $262 a metric ton.

A senior U.S. military official said the U.S. has learned through intelligence sources that Iraq will try to damage or destroy its oil fields if it is attacked.

The U.S. has developed plans to seize control of the oil fields as soon as fighting begins, and before Iraq can blow them up, the official said.

Reports that the Iraqi leader may be planning to blow up oil fields in his country have been floating around for weeks. But the likelihood that Iraq may have already wired some of the fields heightened worries about the future of Iraqi oil supplies, analysts said.

"It's a pretty critical concept," said Bernard Deverin, principal of American Commodities Trading, based in Westport, Conn. "If this in fact does come to pass, it could easily take a million or so barrels off the market."

Iraq is the fourth-largest producer among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Iraq's crude output, recovering from a slump last year, jumped to 2.5 million barrels a day in January, according to Petrologistics, a Geneva-based tanker tracker.

The disclosure that Iraq may have plans to damage its oil fields comes as the administration of President Bush steps up preparation for a possible attack despite growing international opposition to war.

U.S. officials have threatened Iraq with military action if it doesn't destroy its weapons of mass destruction.

Iraq says it has no such weapons, and United Nations inspectors working in Iraq have yet to turn up evidence that the Iraqi regime is in possession of banned arms. While inspectors have questioned Iraq's claims of innocence, they have also called for more time to carry out their work.

President Bush and his senior aides said earlier this week that time is running out for Mr. Hussein, suggesting that war has become increasingly likely.

Concern about Iraqi oil supplies comes at a time when Venezuela, another major OPEC producer, remains largely off the market. A strike that began in early December has severely disrupted Venezuela's oil industry.

In recent days, the government of President Hugo Chavez has managed to restore some oil operations. Nevertheless, oil prices are likely to remain high as long as the threat of a U.S. attack on Iraq remains, analysts said.

Separately, the Nymex February natural gas futures contract gained 6.6 cents to $5.524 per million British thermal units.

METALS: February gold on the Comex division of Nymex rose $3.70 to $368.40, while March silver was up 10 cents to $4.885 an ounce.

GRAINS: March oats lost four cents to $2.0425 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. March wheat rose 6.75 cents to $3.185 a bushel.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-24-03 1615ET

newsobserver.com Friday, January 24, 2003 4:28PM EST By CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER, ASSOCIATED PRESS

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Oil production is slowly picking up in Venezuela, a sign President Hugo Chavez may be gaining in his efforts to break a nearly 2-month-old strike.

But Chavez still has a long way to go to overcome the strike's devastating effects on the economy, already in recession when the walkout began Dec. 2 with the goal of ousting his left-wing, populist regime. Dissident executives at the state oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. said production was 855,000 barrels of crude on Friday, up from 812,000 barrels a day earlier. State oil company President Ali Rodriguez insists crude production has surpassed 1 million barrels per day.

Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter and a major U.S. supplier, produced 3 million barrels a day before the strike. At one point in December, production slipped to as low as 150,000 barrels per day.

It remains to be seen whether exports, averaging around 450,000 barrels a day, will follow suit. If oil isn't shipped, inventories pile up and no space remains for freshly produced oil.

Many tanker pilots returned to their jobs this week, but foreign shippers remain reluctant to use Venezuelan ports because regular docking and support personnel haven't abandoned the strike.

Ed Sillierre, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York, called the decision by pilots "the first chink in the armor."

Persuading pilots to return to work was "a very smart strategic move on Chavez's part. It really drove the stake into the heart of opposition movement," Sillierre said.

"Can he ride this thing out? Now I would say yes," he added.

The state oil monopoly employs about 40,000 people. Rodriguez told the state news agency Venpres on Thursday that most oil workers and half the company's administrators have abandoned the strike. But Fedepetrol, the largest oil workers union, insisted 17,000 of its 20,000 workers haven't returned to work.

"We are winning the petroleum war," Chavez told hundreds of thousands of his supporters at a rally in Caracas on Thursday.

"It's going to be a difficult year, but who says we can't overcome the difficulties?" he said.

Chavez may be making headway in his push to revive oil production, but that doesn't mean domestic fuel shortages will return to normal anytime soon. Venezuela only refines a fraction of its crude oil for domestic consumption, and the few refineries used for that purpose are still far from full capacity.

"Domestic consumption will be an issue for a long time," Sillierre said. If the strike were to end immediately, "Venezuela would be importing gasoline easily through March, quite possibly into the summer," he said.

Chavez must also face the effects of damage already done to the nation's oil-dependent economy. Almost half of Venezuela's income, 80 percent of export earnings and roughly a third of the country's $100 billion gross domestic product come from oil exports.

The government has acknowledged losing over $4 billion in income so far.

Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega announced a $1.5 billion cut this week in Venezuela's $25 billion budget. Cash-strapped opposition governors and mayors claim they may not be able to pay public employees at the end of the month.

The Santander Central Hispano investment bank has warned that Venezuela's economy could contract as much as 40 percent in the first quarter of 2003 if the crisis isn't resolved soon. The economy shrank by an estimated 8 percent in 2002. Unemployment is 17 percent and inflation is 30 percent.